调查显示，尽管美国12月份消费者信心指数在某些方面相比11月份有所改善，但总体而言，高物价带来 的负担依然沉重，消费者情绪依然低迷。 （文章来源：新华社） 新华财经纽约12月5日电（记者徐静）美国密歇根大学5日发布的初步调查数据显示，美国12月份消费者 信心指数初值为53.3，环比高于11月份的终值51，同比低于去年12月的终值74。 密歇根大学发布的12月份当前经济状况指数初值降至50.7，环比低于11月份的终值51.1，同比也低于去 年12月份的终值75.1。消费者预期指数上涨至55.0，环比高于11月份的终值51.0，同比低于去年12月份 的终值73.3。 同时发布的未来一年通胀预期从11月份的4.5%降至4.1%，为2025年1月以来最低水平，也是连续第四个 月下降。 ...

Core Insights - The preliminary consumer confidence index for December in the U.S. is reported at 53.3, which is an increase from November's final value of 51, but a decrease from last year's December value of 74 [1] - The current economic conditions index for December has dropped to 50.7, down from November's 51.1, and also lower than last year's December value of 75.1 [1] - The consumer expectations index has risen to 55.0, up from November's 51.0, but still lower than last year's December value of 73.3 [1] - Inflation expectations for the next year have decreased from 4.5% in November to 4.1%, marking the lowest level since January 2025 and the fourth consecutive month of decline [1] - Despite some improvements in consumer confidence compared to November, the overall sentiment remains low due to the heavy burden of high prices [1]

Group 1 - The domestic gold prices in retail stores remain stable, with the highest price at 1328 CNY per gram and the lowest at 1232 CNY per gram [1][3] - Major brands such as Lao Miao, Liufeng, and Chow Tai Fook have not changed their gold prices, maintaining stability [1][3] - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold prices in stores is consistent at 96 CNY per gram [1] Group 2 - Platinum prices have decreased, with Chow Tai Fook's platinum jewelry now priced at 662 CNY per gram, down by 9 CNY [4] - The gold recycling prices have seen a slight increase of 2.7 CNY per gram, with significant price variations among different brands [4] - The current gold recycling prices for various brands range from 907.90 CNY to 942.60 CNY per gram [4] Group 3 - International gold prices showed fluctuations, with a recent low of 4173.79 USD per ounce and a high of 4241.17 USD per ounce, closing at 4206.63 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.09% increase [6] - As of the latest update, the spot gold price is reported at 4224.98 USD per ounce, indicating a 0.44% increase [6] - Analysts note that rising U.S. Treasury yields are limiting gold's upward potential, while fluctuations in the U.S. dollar index provide some support for gold prices [6]

Group 1 - COMEX gold inventory recorded at 1173.52 tons on November 10, unchanged from the previous trading day [1][2] - COMEX gold price closed at $4118.50 per ounce on November 10, up 2.64%, with an intraday high of $4123.90 and a low of $4004.20 [1][2] Group 2 - Divergence in Federal Reserve officials' statements is becoming more pronounced, with San Francisco Fed President Daly supporting a dovish stance while St. Louis Fed President calls for caution, indicating ongoing policy uncertainty affecting market dynamics [2] - Latest data shows the U.S. consumer confidence index dropped to 50.3, a two-year low, while inflation expectations remain high at 4.7%, reinforcing market expectations for the Fed to maintain an accommodative policy [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market declined last week and then rebounded, with an overall decline of 0.47%. The black sector led the decline, while precious metals and agricultural products rose. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to factors such as the possible end of the US government shutdown and mixed macro - economic indicators [1]. - Different commodity sectors, including precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products, are expected to have short - term fluctuations based on their respective fundamentals and macro - economic factors [1][2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - The commodity market fell 0.47% last week. The black sector dropped 2.62%, energy and chemicals fell 0.41% and 0.06% respectively, while precious metals and agricultural products rose 0.11% and 0.57% [1]. - Among specific varieties, rapeseed meal, pulp, and eggs had the highest increases of 6.32%, 3.49%, and 2.32% respectively, while asphalt, iron ore, and methanol had the largest declines of 6.04%, 4.94%, and 3.12% [1]. - The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market decreased, and the market scale increased by nearly 10 billion, with only the precious metals sector showing net capital outflows [1]. 2. Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: Officials' hawkish remarks and the uncertainty of the US government shutdown situation may keep the sector in high - level fluctuations in the short - term [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: With a neutral macro - environment and mixed fundamentals, the sector is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [2]. - **Black Metals**: With weakening demand, falling production, and increasing raw material pressure, the sector may continue to be supported by costs and fluctuate [2]. - **Energy**: The oversupply of crude oil and the impact of the US government shutdown on demand may lead to short - term oil price fluctuations [2]. - **Chemicals**: Cost support from coal and mixed demand expectations may result in short - term fluctuations and mid - term anti - arbitrage opportunities [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: The reduction of US soybean tariffs and the weak rebound of palm oil may lead to different trends in different agricultural products, with some under pressure [3]. 3. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally had negative weekly returns, with a total scale increase of 0.81%. Energy - chemical, soybean meal, non - ferrous metal, and silver ETFs also had different return and scale changes [35].

Core Insights - The preliminary consumer confidence index for November in the U.S. dropped to 50.3, down from 53.6 in October and significantly lower than 71.8 in November of the previous year, indicating ongoing consumer concerns about employment and inflation [1][1][1] Economic Indicators - The current economic conditions index for November fell to 52.3, compared to 58.6 in October and 63.9 in November last year [1][1][1] - The consumer expectations index decreased to 49.0, down from 50.3 in October and 76.9 in the same month last year [1][1][1] Inflation Expectations - The one-year inflation expectation slightly increased from 4.6% in October to 4.7% in November [1][1][1] Consumer Sentiment Analysis - The decline in the consumer confidence index by approximately 6% is attributed to a 17% decrease in current personal financial conditions and an 11% drop in expectations for future business prospects [1][1][1] - Concerns regarding the ongoing federal government "shutdown," which has lasted over a month, are contributing to consumer anxiety about potential negative impacts on the economy [1][1][1]

Core Viewpoint - The preliminary consumer confidence index for November in the U.S. has dropped to 50.3, indicating ongoing concerns among consumers regarding employment and inflation [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence Index - The November consumer confidence index preliminary value decreased to 50.3, down from the final value of 53.6 in October and significantly lower than the final value of 71.8 in November last year [1] - This preliminary data is also below market expectations of 53.2, highlighting persistent consumer worries [1] Group 2: Economic Conditions - The current economic conditions index for November fell to 52.3, lower than October's final value of 58.6 and last year's final value of 63.9 [1] - The consumer expectations index dropped to 49.0, down from 50.3 in October and 76.9 in November last year [1] Group 3: Inflation Expectations - The one-year inflation expectation slightly increased from 4.6% in October to 4.7% in November [1] Group 4: Reasons for Decline - The decline in the consumer confidence index by approximately 6% is primarily attributed to a 17% decrease in current personal financial conditions and an 11% drop in expectations for future business prospects [1] - Concerns about the ongoing federal government "shutdown," which has lasted over a month, are contributing to consumer anxiety regarding potential negative economic impacts [1]

Core Insights - The preliminary consumer confidence index in the U.S. for October has decreased to its lowest level in five months, falling from 55.1 in September to 55, marking the third consecutive month of decline [1][3]. Economic Conditions - High prices and a bleak employment outlook remain the primary concerns for American consumers, with a general belief that substantial improvements are unlikely in the short term [3]. - Consumers' inflation expectations for the next year remain high at 4.6%, while long-term inflation expectations are stable at 3.7%, both significantly above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [3]. - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes indicated that anticipated tariff increases are expected to raise inflation this year and further exacerbate inflationary pressures by 2026 [3]. Employment Outlook - A significant portion of American households, nearly half, expect the job market to worsen in the coming year [3].

Group 1 - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. dropped to 94.2 in September, a decrease of 3.6 points from August, marking the lowest level since April [1] - The percentage of respondents who believe job opportunities are "plentiful" fell to 26.9%, a decline of over 3 percentage points from August, while those who think jobs are "hard to find" remained at 19.1% [1] - There is a significant increase in pessimism regarding financial conditions, with the largest single-month decline in perceptions of current financial status since July 2022 [1] Group 2 - The Conference Board's senior economist noted a clear weakening in consumer judgment regarding business conditions, with a continuous deterioration in views on job opportunities for nine months, reflecting the slowing U.S. economic recovery and pressure on household spending [1] - Wall Street analysts suggest that the stability of the labor market is a crucial consideration for Federal Reserve officials as they contemplate future interest rate movements [1] - The Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve indicated that inflation rates in the U.S. are expected to decline next year, reaching 2% in the coming years, while the downside risks to the labor market are increasing [1] Group 3 - Recent employment data in the U.S. has shown a weaker-than-expected trend for two consecutive months, indicating a cooling labor market [3] - The decline in employment numbers is attributed to reduced labor supply due to immigration policies, which has prevented a significant rise in the unemployment rate, and wage growth remains moderate [3] - Current conditions do not warrant a high-risk assessment for a recession in the U.S. economy at this time [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 94.2 in September, marking a decline of 3.6 points from August and reaching its lowest level since April [1] - The index measuring consumers' assessment of current business and employment conditions fell by 7 points to 125.4, while the expectations index, reflecting short-term income prospects and the business and employment environment, decreased to 73.4, significantly below the recession threshold of 80 [1] - The proportion of respondents who believe job opportunities are "plentiful" decreased to 26.9%, down over 3 percentage points from August, while those who find it "hard to get a job" remained at 19.1% [1] Group 2 - There is a notable increase in pessimism regarding financial conditions, with the perception of current financial status experiencing the largest monthly decline since July 2022 [1] - The senior economist at the research institution stated that consumer sentiment regarding business conditions is less optimistic than in recent months, and perceptions of current employment conditions have declined for the ninth consecutive month, reaching a multi-year low [1] - Analysts suggest that the stability of the labor market is a crucial consideration for Federal Reserve officials as they contemplate future interest rate movements, with expectations that the Fed will lower the benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage points by the end of the year [1]