Inflation Data Summary - In July, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous value and slightly below the expected 2.8%[1] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.2%, consistent with expectations but lower than the previous 0.3%[1] - Core CPI year-on-year rose to 3.1%, exceeding expectations of 3% and up from 2.9% in the prior month[1] Market Reactions and Trends - The underwhelming July CPI data led to a consensus in the market favoring a rate cut in September, with positive responses in both stock and bond markets[2] - Despite some positive signs in imported goods prices, service sector inflation accelerated, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures in the economy[2] Key Influencing Factors - Energy prices fell significantly, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%, down from a previous increase of 0.9%[3] - Food prices remained stable, showing no change month-on-month, compared to a previous increase of 0.3%[3] - Core services, particularly in transportation, saw notable increases, with transportation services rising by 0.8% month-on-month[4] Future Outlook - The upcoming non-farm payroll data will be critical in determining the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, especially if employment risks materialize[5] - Federal Reserve Chair Powell is expected to maintain a cautious approach, emphasizing data dependency before any rate cut decisions[5]

（文章来源：新华财经） 美国7月未季调核心CPI年率3.1%，预期3.0%，前值2.9%。美国7月季调后核心CPI月率0.3%，预期 0.3%，前值0.2%。 ...

订阅美国CPI +订阅 订阅美联储动态 +订阅 美国核心CPI低于预期 疑或加剧美联储降息分歧 金十数据7月15日讯， 受到汽车价格下跌的影响，美国核心CPI连续第五个月涨幅低于预期。具体数据 显示，玩具、家具、家电和服装等受关税影响较大的品类价格表现强劲，这表明企业已开始将更高的进 口成本转嫁给消费者。与此同时，新车和二手车价格出现下跌。 核心CPI低于预期引发了关于特朗普推 出的关税会在多大范围内影响消费者价格的疑问。一些企业通过在征税前囤积库存，或是以降低利润率 为代价吸收部分额外成本，从而保护了消费者免受影响。这一低于预期的数据可能会让特朗普更加强烈 地呼吁美联储降息。尽管一些官员表示愿意在两周后的会议上降息，但政策制定者们对于关税会导致一 次性价格冲击，还是更持久的影响仍存在分歧，因此可能会再次维持利率不变。 ...

美国核心CPI连续第五个月涨幅低于预期，主要受到汽车价格下跌的影响。利率互换数据显示，交易员 认为美联储在9月降息25个基点的概率为62%，并且预计到年底前将累计降息近两次。 ...

Economic Indicators - In May, the U.S. CPI rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 2.4%, while the core CPI remained flat at 2.8% for the third consecutive month[2] - The month-on-month increases for May were 0.08% for CPI and 0.13% for core CPI, indicating a slight decline from April's figures[2] Inflation Dynamics - The core CPI's stagnation is attributed to the decline in durable goods prices and a cooling rental market, influenced by lower energy prices and temporary tariff impacts[3] - Core durable goods prices fell by 0.11% month-on-month in May, marking the lowest level this year, primarily due to OPEC+ production increases affecting international oil prices[3] Future Projections - Despite the current low inflation rates, the potential for core inflation to rebound remains due to sustained high wages and the anticipated passage of the "Big and Beautiful" plan, which could boost consumer demand[3] - The rental market saw a month-on-month increase of 0.26% in May, reflecting a lagging effect from previous interest rate peaks, suggesting potential upward pressure on housing prices and inflation in the future[3] Monetary Policy Outlook - The market's expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have increased, but the necessity for aggressive cuts is diminished due to low unemployment and high wage growth[3] - If the fiscal expansion plan is fully implemented, it may lead to a gradual increase in the dollar index and potential depreciation pressures on the RMB, limiting the People's Bank of China's monetary easing options[3] Risks - There is a risk that the Federal Reserve may cut rates faster than anticipated, which could impact market dynamics[4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, which met expectations, while the core CPI also rose 0.1% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, both below market expectations [1][2] - The report indicates that the prices of goods excluding food and energy remained flat month-on-month, suggesting that the cost increases from tariffs have not yet been passed on to consumers [2][3] - Energy prices fell by 1%, while prices for new and used cars decreased by 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively, and clothing prices dropped by 0.4%, indicating a downward trend in key goods that were expected to be affected by tariffs [2][3] Group 2 - Following the release of the data, US Treasury prices rose, the dollar weakened, and S&P 500 futures increased, reflecting market reactions to the lower-than-expected inflation data [3] - The report comes amid ongoing trade negotiations by the Trump administration, which has implemented a 10% tariff on a wide range of imported goods, raising concerns about potential inflationary pressures from these tariffs [3] - Economists predict that if high tariff policies continue, companies may struggle to shield consumers from cost pressures, leading to a potential significant increase in price growth in the coming months [3]

无人预测美国核心CPI增长0.1% 金十数据6月11日讯，彭博社调查的73位受访者中，没有一人预测到核心CPI仅增长0.1%。此前金十整 理的机构预期中，也没有机构作出0.1%的预期，预期值分布在0.2%至0.5%区间。 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May increased by 2.4% year-over-year, meeting expectations, with the previous value at 2.3% [1] - The core CPI for May rose by 2.8% year-over-year, which is below the expected value of 2.9%, and the previous value was also 2.8% [1] - The core CPI has now shown a lower-than-expected increase for four consecutive months, indicating that companies are attempting to limit the transfer of rising costs from tariffs to consumers [1]