投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 冠通期货研究报告 --PVC周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2026年3月9日 行情分析 供应端，PVC开工率环比减少0.97个百分点至81.11%，PVC开工率转而减少，但仍处于近年同期中性偏高水平。 春节假期后第二周，PVC下游平均开工率回升18.73个百分点至35.84%，较去年农历同期增加3.14个百分点，目前春 节假期结束，下游陆续复产。出口方面，由于亚洲市场价格上涨，出口询单有所好转。社会库存在春节假期期间增 加较多，上周继续增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-12月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、 施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。春节假期结束第二周，商品房成交环 比有所回落，仍处于历年同期偏低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。期货仓单仍处高位。社会库存继续增加，电石价格 持续下跌。不过生态环境部表示将聚焦无汞催化剂研发攻关等关键环节，加快推动聚氯乙烯行业无汞化转型，加上 市场对于春节后仍有政策及检修预期，下游需 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年3月6日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。供应端，PVC开工率环比减少0.97个百分点至81.11%，PVC开工率转 而减少，但仍处于近年同期中性偏高水平。春节假期后第二周，PVC下游平均开工率回升18.73个百 分点至35.84%，较去年农历同期增加3.14个百分点，目前春节假期结束，下游陆续复产。出口方面， 节后出口签单小幅回升，但多数出口企业3月份预售已经完成，加上4月1日就将取消出口退税，预计 PVC出口签单3月份处于低位。另外，印度发布反补贴税调查，PVC出口预期下降。社会库存在春节假 期期间增加较多，上周继续增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-12月份，房地产仍在 调整阶段，投资、新开工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、竣工等同比增速进一步 下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回升，春节假期结束，商品房成交转好，但仍处于历年 同期偏低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合毛利承压，部分生产企业开工预期下降，只是目前 产量下降有限，期货仓单仍处高位。社会库存继续增加，电石价格持续下跌。不过生态环境部表示 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2026年3月5日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格继续下跌25元/吨。供应端，PVC开工率环比增加1.99个百分点至82.08%， PVC开工率继续增加，处于近年同期中性偏高水平。春节假期后第一周，PVC下游平均开工率回升 17.11个百分点至17.11%，较去年农历同期减少6.34个百分点，目前春节假期刚结束，下游还未完全 复产。出口方面，节后出口签单小幅回升，但多数出口企业3月份预售已经完成，加上4月1日就将取 消出口退税，预计PVC出口签单3月份处于低位。另外，印度发布反补贴税调查，PVC出口预期下降。 社会库存在春节假期期间增加较多，上周继续增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-12 月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、竣工 等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回落，春节期间，商品房成交低迷， 房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合毛利承压，部分生产企业开工预期下降，但目前产量下降有限，期 货仓单仍处高位。节后PVC开工率增加，社会库存继续增加，电石价格持续下跌。不过生态环境部 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：高开后震荡运行 发布日期：2026年3月4日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格继续下跌50元/吨。供应端，PVC开工率环比增加1.99个百分点至82.08%， PVC开工率继续增加，处于近年同期中性偏高水平。春节假期后第一周，PVC下游平均开工率回升 17.11个百分点至17.11%，较去年农历同期减少6.34个百分点，目前春节假期刚结束，下游还未完全 复产。出口方面，节后出口签单小幅回升，但多数出口企业3月份预售已经完成，加上4月1日就将取 消出口退税，预计PVC出口签单3月份处于低位。另外，印度发布反补贴税调查，PVC出口预期下降。 社会库存在春节假期期间增加较多，上周继续增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-12 月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、竣工 等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回落，春节期间，商品房成交低迷， 房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合毛利承压，部分生产企业开工预期下降，但目前产量下降有限，期 货仓单仍处高位。2月是国内PVC传统需求淡季，春节后现货成交清淡，节后PVC开工率 ...

【行情分析】 上上游西北地区电石价格下跌50元/吨。供应端，PVC开工率环比增加1.99个百分点至82.08%， PVC开工率继续增加，处于近年同期中性偏高水平。春节假期后第一周，PVC下游平均开工率回升 17.11个百分点至17.11%，较去年农历同期减少6.34个百分点，目前春节假期刚结束，下游还未完全 复产。出口方面，节后出口签单小幅回升，但多数出口企业3月份预售已经完成，加上4月1日就将取 消出口退税，预计PVC出口签单3月份处于低位。另外，印度发布反补贴税调查，PVC出口预期下降。 社会库存在春节假期期间增加较多，上周继续增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-12 月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、竣工 等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回落，春节期间，商品房成交低迷， 房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合毛利承压，部分生产企业开工预期下降，但目前产量下降有限，期 货仓单仍处高位。2月是国内PVC传统需求淡季，春节后现货成交清淡，节后PVC开工率增加，社会库 存继续增加，电石价格持续下跌，PVC价格承压。不过生态环境部表示将聚 ...

冠通期货研究报告 --2026年3月PVC月度报告 发布日期：2026年3月2日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：苏妙达 执业证书号：F03104403/Z0018167 联系电话：010-85356618 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 行情分析 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 供应端，PVC开工率环比增加1.99个百分点至82.08%，PVC开工率继续增加，处于近年同期中性偏高水平。春节后第一周，PVC 下游平均开工率回升17.11个百分点至17.11%，较去年农历同期减少6.34个百分点，目前春节假期刚结束，下游还未完全复产。出 口方面，节后出口签单小幅回升，但多数出口企业3月份预售已经完成，加上4月1日就将取消出口退税，预计PVC出口签单3月份处 于低位。另外，印度发布反补贴税调查，PVC出口预期下降。社会库存在春节假期期间增加较多，本周继续增加，目前仍偏高，库 存压力仍然较大。2025年1-12月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、竣工 等同比增速进一步下降 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PVC price is expected to continue to be under pressure due to increased post - holiday PVC operating rates, rising social inventories, and continuous decline in raw material prices, but the decline is limited because of the expected policy and maintenance after the Spring Festival, and the potential continuation of the post - holiday export rush. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of downstream industries after the holiday [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region dropped by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate increased by 1.99 percentage points to 82.08% on a month - on - month basis, remaining at a moderately high level in recent years. Before the Spring Festival, domestic export orders decreased month - on - month after the price increase, but the previous export rush reduced the sales pressure of enterprises. The FOB price of Formosa Plastics' PVC exports for the March shipment increased by 40 US dollars/ton compared to February. Social inventories increased significantly during the Spring Festival and continued to rise this week, remaining at a relatively high level. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas is still large. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month, and the real estate market needs time to improve. The comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure, but the current production decline is limited, and the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract decreased in position, fluctuated, and declined. The lowest price was 4758 yuan/ton, the highest price was 4838 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 4792 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 2.06%. The position decreased by 730 lots to 1,218,034 lots [2] 3. Basis - On February 27, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region dropped to 4635 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4792 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 157 yuan/ton, weakening by 7 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] 4. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: The PVC operating rate increased by 1.99 percentage points to 82.08% on a month - on - month basis, remaining at a moderately high level in recent years. New production capacities of Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), and Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year) were put into production in the second half of 2025, and Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) started trial production in December 2025 [6] - **Demand**: The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas. In 2025 from January to December, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The commercial housing sales area was 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%. The commercial housing sales volume was 839.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%. The new construction area of housing was 587.70 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The completion area of housing was 603.48 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%. As of the week of February 22, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 92.37% month - on - month, and the transaction was sluggish during the Spring Festival [7] - **Inventory**: As of the week of February 27, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.71% month - on - month to 1.353 million tons, 58.02% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival and continued to rise this week, remaining at a relatively high level [8]

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2026年2月26日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格下跌25元/吨。供应端，春节前，PVC开工率环比增加0.83个百分点至 80.09%，PVC开工率继续小幅增加，处于近年同期中性水平。春节期间，PVC下游绝大多数停工。出口 方面，春节前，价格上涨后，国内出口签单环比回落，但之前的抢出口使得企业销售压力不大。中 国台湾台塑PVC出口3月份船货离岸价环比2月上调40美元/吨。社会库存在春节假期期间增加较多， 目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-12月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、施工、 竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交 面积环比回落，春节期间，商品房成交低迷，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合毛利承压，部分生产 企业开工预期下降，但目前产量下降有限，期货仓单仍处高位。2月是国内PVC传统需求淡季，春节 后现货成交清淡，社会库存继续增加，原料价格下跌。不过生态环境部表示将聚焦无汞催化剂研发 攻关等关键环节，加快推动聚氯乙烯行业无汞化转型，加上抢出口节后有望延续，市场对于春节后 仍有政策及检修 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is currently in a situation of weak reality and strong expectations, with expected volatile operation. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production progress of downstream industries after the Spring Festival [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. Before the Spring Festival, the PVC operating rate increased by 0.83 percentage points to 80.09%, continuing a slight increase and remaining at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years. During the Spring Festival, most downstream PVC industries shut down. In terms of exports, after the price increase before the Spring Festival, domestic export orders decreased month-on-month, but previous rush exports reduced the sales pressure on enterprises. The FOB price of Formosa Plastics' PVC exports for March shipments increased by $40/ton compared to February. Social inventories increased significantly during the Spring Festival holiday and remain high, with significant inventory pressure. In 2025 from January to December, the real estate market was still in the adjustment phase, with significant year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas, and further decreases in year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased month-on-month, and sales were sluggish during the Spring Festival. The real estate market needs more time to improve. The comprehensive gross profit of chlor-alkali is under pressure, and the operating expectations of some production enterprises are decreasing, but the current production decline is limited, and the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level. February is the traditional off-season for domestic PVC demand, and spot transactions are light after the Spring Festival, with social inventories continuing to increase. However, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment stated that it will focus on key aspects such as research and development of mercury-free catalysts to accelerate the mercury-free transformation of the PVC industry. Coupled with the expected continuation of rush exports after the festival, the market still has expectations for policies and maintenance after the Spring Festival [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,932 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,984 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 4,963 yuan/ton, near the 20-day moving average, with a gain of 0.65%. The position increased by 55,463 lots to 1,129,874 lots [2] Basis - On February 25, the mainstream price of calcium carbide-based PVC in the East China region remained stable at 4,770 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,963 yuan/ton. The current basis was -193 yuan/ton, weakening by 15 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, affected by installations such as Shaanxi Jintai and Henan Yuhang, the PVC operating rate increased by 0.83 percentage points to 80.09%, continuing a slight increase and remaining at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years. In terms of new production capacity, Wanhua Chemical with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons, Tianjin Bohua with 400,000 tons, Qingdao Gulf with 200,000 tons, and Gansu Yaowang with 300,000 tons were all put into production in the second half of 2025. Jiaxing Jiahua with an annual capacity of 300,000 tons started trial production in December 2025 [4] - On the demand side, the real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, with significant year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further decreases in year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, construction, and completion. From January to December 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%. From January to December, the commercial housing sales area was 881.01 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%; among them, the residential sales area decreased by 9.2%. The commercial housing sales volume was 839.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 13.0%. From January to December, the new construction area of housing was 587.7 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.4%; among them, the new construction area of residential housing was 429.84 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. From January to December, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.0%. From January to December, the completion area of housing was 603.48 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1%; among them, the completion area of residential housing was 428.3 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2%. Overall, the real estate market needs more time to improve. As of the week of February 22, the commercial housing sales area in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 92.37% month-on-month, and sales were sluggish during the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to whether real estate favorable policies after the festival can boost commercial housing sales [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week of February 20, the PVC social inventory increased by 7.16% month-on-month to 1.3434 million tons, a 55.31% increase compared to the same period last year. Social inventories increased significantly during the Spring Festival holiday and remain high (Longzhong increased the social storage capacity in East and South China from 21 to 41) [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The PVC market shows a situation of weak reality and strong expectations. It is expected to operate in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production progress of downstream industries after the Spring Festival [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region has dropped significantly by 165 yuan/ton compared to before the Spring Festival. Before the Spring Festival, the PVC开工率 increased by 0.83 percentage points to 80.09%, and it continued to increase slightly, being at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. During the Spring Festival, most downstream PVC industries shut down. In terms of exports, after the price increase before the Spring Festival, the domestic export orders decreased month - on - month, but the previous rush to export reduced the sales pressure on enterprises. The FOB price of Formosa Plastics' PVC export shipments in March increased by 40 US dollars/ton compared to February. The social inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival holiday and is still relatively high, with large inventory pressure. The real estate is still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement of the real estate market still takes time. The comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure, and the production of some enterprises is expected to decrease, but the current output decline is limited, and the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level. February is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand, and the spot trading is light after the Spring Festival, and the social inventory continues to increase. However, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment will promote the mercury - free transformation of the PVC industry, and the post - festival export rush is expected to continue. There are also policy and maintenance expectations after the Spring Festival, and the rise in crude oil prices boosts chemical products [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2605 contract increased in positions and operated in a volatile manner, with a minimum price of 4835 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 5011 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 4948 yuan/ton, near the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.59%. The position increased by 56146 lots to 1074411 lots [2] - On February 24, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region rose to 4770 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4948 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 178 yuan/ton, strengthening by 2 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, affected by devices such as Shaanxi Jintai and Henan Yuhang, the PVC开工率 increased by 0.83 percentage points to 80.09%, and continued to increase slightly, being at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. In terms of new production capacity, Wanhua Chemical with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons, Tianjin Bohua with 400,000 tons/year, Qingdao Gulf with 200,000 tons/year, and Gansu Yaowang with 300,000 tons/year were all put into production in the second half of 2025. Jiaxing Jiahua with an annual capacity of 300,000 tons started trial production in December 2025 [4] - On the demand side, the real estate is still in the adjustment stage, and the year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, and completion areas is still large, and the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, construction, and completion have further declined. From January to December 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. From January to December, the commercial housing sales area was 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%; among them, the residential sales area decreased by 9.2%. The commercial housing sales volume was 839.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 13.0%. From January to December, the new construction area of housing was 587.7 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4%; among them, the new construction area of residential housing was 429.84 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. From January to December, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. From January to December, the completion area of housing was 603.48 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%; among them, the completion area of residential housing was 428.3 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.2%. As of the week of February 22, the weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 92.37% month - on - month, and the commercial housing transactions were sluggish during the Spring Festival [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week of February 20, the PVC social inventory increased by 7.16% month - on - month to 1.3434 million tons, 55.31% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival holiday and is still relatively high [6]