Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is experiencing a new upward cycle, with both supply and demand factors contributing to the current market dynamics, making it an opportune time for low-cost investments in the coal sector [6] Price Trends - As of August 9, the price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 678 RMB/ton, an increase of 23 RMB/ton week-on-week [2] - The price of coking coal at Jingtang port is 1630 RMB/ton, a decrease of 20 RMB/ton week-on-week [3] - International thermal coal prices have also seen increases, with Newcastle NEWC5500 at 67.7 USD/ton, up 0.7 USD/ton week-on-week [2] Production Capacity Utilization - The utilization rate of sample thermal coal mines is 93.4%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points week-on-week [3] - The utilization rate of sample coking coal mines is 83.89%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points week-on-week [3] Consumption Trends - Coastal provinces have seen an increase in daily coal consumption by 28.5 thousand tons/day, a rise of 12.76% week-on-week [4] - Inland provinces have also experienced an increase in daily coal consumption by 24.7 thousand tons/day, a rise of 6.42% week-on-week [4] Industry Outlook - The coal sector is expected to face supply constraints due to recent rainfall affecting production and the implementation of policies like the "276 working days" system [6] - The current market conditions suggest a solid support platform for coal prices, with expectations for further price increases [6] - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividend yields, making it an attractive investment opportunity [8] Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [8] - Consider companies with significant price elasticity like Yanzhou Coal and Guohua Energy, as well as high-quality metallurgical coal companies [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is the early stage of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, driven by both fundamental and policy factors, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector during price corrections [11][12] - The supply side is tightening due to a decrease in coal mine capacity utilization rates, while demand is increasing, particularly in inland provinces [11][12] - The coal price has established a new support level, and high-quality coal companies are characterized by strong profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE), and dividends [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of August 2, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 655 CNY/ton, up 10 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][28] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang port remains stable at 1650 CNY/ton [30] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 90.9%, down 3.1 percentage points week-on-week [11][45] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces increased by 44.4 thousand tons/day (+13.05%) [11][46] - The daily coal consumption in coastal provinces rose by 1.0 thousand tons/day (+0.45%) [11][46] Inventory Situation - As of July 31, coal inventory in inland provinces decreased by 1.20% week-on-week, while daily consumption increased [46] - Coastal provinces saw a 1.08% decrease in coal inventory week-on-week [46] Company Performance - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividends, with a focus on companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and others [12][13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector assets [10][11] - The coal supply side is experiencing a contraction, with a decrease in coal mine capacity utilization rates, while demand is expected to recover, leading to a potential rebound in coal prices [10][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality coal companies that exhibit strong profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE), and dividends, which are expected to remain attractive investments [10][11] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Prices - As of June 14, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 610 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1 CNY/ton week-on-week [2][29] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is reported at 1250 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton from the previous week [31] 2. Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 94%, down 1 percentage point week-on-week, while coking coal mines have a utilization rate of 83.71%, down 0.9 percentage points [10][46] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has decreased by 9.50 thousand tons/day (-3.03%) and in coastal provinces by 0.30 thousand tons/day (-0.17%) [10][47] 3. Coal Inventory and Transportation - As of June 12, coal inventory in inland provinces has decreased by 12.60 thousand tons, while coastal provinces saw an increase of 38.50 thousand tons [47] - The report notes that the daily coal consumption is in the early stages of a seasonal increase, indicating a potential recovery in demand [10] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, while also considering companies with high elasticity like Yanzhou Coal and Guohua Energy [11][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The supply side is experiencing a contraction trend due to ongoing safety inspections and negative feedback from coal prices, which may stabilize coal prices [11][12] - The demand side shows an increase in daily coal consumption in both inland and coastal provinces, indicating potential for demand release as the peak season approaches [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of June 7, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 611 CNY/ton, down 2 CNY/ton week-on-week [29] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang port is 1290 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton week-on-week [31] - International thermal coal prices show mixed trends, with Newcastle NEWC5500 at 66.8 USD/ton, down 0.2 USD/ton week-on-week [29] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 95%, down 1.1 percentage points week-on-week [48] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces increased by 33,000 tons/day (+11.76%) week-on-week, while coastal provinces saw an increase of 7000 tons/day (+0.41%) [49] - The utilization rate for sample coking coal mines is 84.65%, down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week [48] Inventory Situation - Coal inventory in inland provinces increased by 640,000 tons week-on-week, while coastal provinces saw an increase of 498,000 tons [49] - The available days of coal in inland provinces decreased by 2.90 days week-on-week, indicating tighter supply [49] Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as those with high elasticity like Yanzhou Coal and China Power Investment [12]

Group 1 - The coal sector is experiencing a significant upward movement, with companies like Dayou Energy and Anyuan Coal Industry hitting the daily limit, indicating strong market interest [1] - Institutions suggest that the current phase marks the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, driven by favorable fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [1] - According to Xinda Securities, the supply-demand imbalance in coal is expected to persist over the next 3-5 years, with high-quality coal companies maintaining attributes such as high barriers to entry, strong cash flow, and attractive dividends [1][2] Group 2 - The coal supply bottleneck is anticipated to continue until the 14th Five-Year Plan, necessitating the construction of new quality production capacities to meet long-term energy demands in China [2] - The rising costs of domestic economic development and imported coal are expected to support high coal price levels, reinforcing the attractiveness of the coal sector as a high-performance, high-dividend asset class [2] - The coal industry is characterized by high profitability, long cycles, and significant barriers to entry, with recent macroeconomic improvements and new regulations enhancing the certainty of profitability and growth for quality coal companies [2]