Core Viewpoint - The divergence between the U.S. Treasury Secretary and the Federal Reserve Chairman regarding monetary policy is creating uncertainty in the dollar's performance and affecting other financial assets [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Divergence - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that a rate cut by the Federal Reserve may not be delayed beyond September, citing economic pressures and the need for stimulus [3]. - In contrast, the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized a cautious approach, stating that decisions must be based on comprehensive economic assessments rather than short-term market fluctuations [3][4]. - This clear division between the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve is contributing to market confusion regarding future monetary policy directions [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The limited upward potential of the dollar is leading investors to adjust their asset allocation strategies amid policy uncertainty [4]. - Despite a minor decline in the dollar index, there are positive movements in S&P and Nasdaq futures, reflecting increased investor preference for risk assets due to expectations of future monetary easing [4]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains stable at 4.245%, indicating a balanced approach among bond market investors in light of policy uncertainties [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators show a bearish trend for the dollar index, with moving averages declining and an expanding Bollinger Band indicating increased market volatility [4][5]. - Key support levels for the dollar index are identified at 96.37 and 94.62, while resistance levels are at 97.32 and 98.15 [5]. - These technical signals provide important references for investors in assessing the dollar index's future movements [5].

Group 1 - The U.S. Labor Department reported that 139,000 non-farm jobs were added in May 2025, exceeding market expectations, which complicates the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts [2] - The divergence in monetary policy between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve is becoming more pronounced, with the Fed maintaining its stance while the ECB has cut rates multiple times [3] - The political implications of interest rate decisions are significant, as every 0.25 percentage point rate hold translates to billions in interest payments for the government [3] Group 2 - The political dynamics within the White House are tense, with President Trump considering personnel changes at the Federal Reserve as a means to influence monetary policy [5] - There are discussions about the potential replacement of Fed Chair Powell, with former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh being a top candidate, although some advisors suggest waiting until Powell's term ends in May 2026 [6] - Trump's impatience is growing as the midterm elections approach, and he is under pressure to maintain a low-interest-rate environment to support his economic policies [8] Group 3 - The internal fractures within Trump's administration are widening, with his extreme individualism and emotional decision-making style causing instability among his advisors [12] - The stability of Vice President Vance's position is uncertain, as loyalty is the primary criterion in Trump's political framework, making any personnel changes possible at any moment [13] - The nature of power dynamics in the Trump era reflects a deeper crisis within the U.S. political system, showcasing the volatility of political alliances and the potential for sudden shifts in personnel [15]

Group 1 - The main risk facing the Japanese yen is the lack of progress in US-Japan trade negotiations, which could lead to a weakening of the yen during the summer [1][2] - Analysts from Bank of America indicated that if substantial progress is not made by mid-June, it will exacerbate fiscal and political risks in Japan, further weakening the yen [1][2] - The recent easing of trade tensions between China and the US contrasts with the stagnation in US-Japan trade talks, raising concerns about Japan's fiscal situation [1][2] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan has adopted a dovish stance in its recent monetary policy meeting, reducing market expectations for interest rate hikes, while the Federal Reserve maintained its position, dampening expectations for rate cuts [2] - Structural factors, including record purchases of foreign stocks by Japanese trust accounts, are contributing to the ongoing pressure on the yen [3] - If US-Japan trade negotiations do not progress by mid-June, further weakness in the yen and Japanese government bonds is anticipated [2][3] Group 3 - The trend of Japanese retail investors continuing to purchase foreign stocks indicates a structural outflow of funds, which will exert long-term pressure on the yen [3] - The potential for the euro to rise against the yen if EU-US trade negotiations progress faster than those between Japan and the US could further challenge the yen's performance [3] - June mid-point is critical for observing the yen's trajectory, with significant downside risks if trade negotiations remain stalled [3]