1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand of iron ore is loose, with port inventories increasing. There are rumors of a crude steel production reduction policy, and trade tensions are easing. The market is expected to be volatile with a downward bias [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - Steel mills' hot metal production is decreasing, supply - side arrivals this month will remain at a relatively high level, leading to a loose overall supply - demand situation and an increase in port inventories. There are rumors of a crude steel production reduction policy, and trade tensions are easing, presenting a bearish outlook [2]. 3.2 Basis Analysis - The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 789, with a basis of 91; the spot price of Brazilian coarse ore at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 764, with a basis of 66. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price, presenting a bullish outlook [2]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - Port inventories are 14,503.14 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, presenting a neutral outlook [2]. 3.4 Market Trend Analysis - The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, presenting a bearish outlook [2]. 3.5 Main Position Analysis - The net position of the main iron ore contract is short, and short positions are increasing, presenting a bearish outlook [2]. 3.6 Expectation Analysis - Domestic demand is decreasing, and imports are increasing. The market is expected to be volatile with a downward bias [2]. 3.7 Factors Analysis - **Positive Factors**: High hot metal production, decreasing port inventories, and import losses [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Increased future shipments and weak terminal demand [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant surge in capital inflow into Asian markets, driven by increased trading activity from hedge funds, marking the highest level in over five years [1] - According to Goldman Sachs, net long positions among hedge funds rose to the highest level since September 2024 during the period from June 6 to June 12 [1] - The share of developed Asian markets in the total risk exposure tracked by hedge funds has increased to 9%, placing it in the 94th percentile of the past five years, indicating a high allocation level [1] Group 2 - The uptick in hedge fund activity coincides with easing signals from high-level trade negotiations between China and the U.S., which took place in London on June 9-10 [2] - The new pro-market South Korean president has boosted confidence in Asian markets, with promises to push the Kospi index to 5000 and legislative reforms to enhance shareholder rights [2] - Since the election of the new South Korean president, the Kospi index has risen over 7%, surpassing 2900 points [2] Group 3 - Some market participants suggest that the trend of "de-dollarization" to hedge against further dollar weakness is also supporting the overall Asian market [5]

1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平继续将保持偏高水平，总体供需宽松，港口库存 增加，市场传言将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价803，基差98；日照港巴粗现货折合盘面价777，基差73，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14503.14万吨，环比增加，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方,20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：国内需求降低，进口增加，震荡偏空思路 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-6-17） 每日观点 铁矿石： 利多： 利空： 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 1. 后期发货量增加。 2. 终端需求依旧弱势。 铁 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-6-13） 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平继续将保持偏高水平，总体供需宽松，港口库存 增加，市场传言将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价808，基差104；日照港巴粗现货折合盘面价783，基差79，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14400.31万吨，环比减少，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方,20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：国内需求降低，进口增加，震荡偏空思路 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 利多： 利空： 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 1. 后期发货量增加。 2. 终端需求依旧弱势。 ...

| 日期 | 乙烯(CFR东北 | 纯苯（CFR中 | 纯苯（华东） | 加氢苯（山 | 苯乙烯（CFR | | 苯乙烯（江 | 苯乙烯（华 | EPS(华东普通 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 亚） | 国） | | 东） | 中国） | | 苏） | 南） | 料） | | 2025/06/06 | 780 | 719 | 5855 | 5850 | 880 | | 7435 | 7575 | 8550 | | 2025/06/09 | 780 | 731 | 5920 | 6010 | 890 | | 7505 | 7675 | 8550 | | 2025/06/10 | 780 | 744 | 6090 | 6070 | 910 | | 7690 | 7825 | 8550 | | 2025/06/11 | 790 | 743 | 6055 | 6120 | 910 | | 7760 | 7850 | 8650 | | 2025/06/12 | 790 | 743 | 6100 | 6150 | 9 ...

芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/12 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 65.3 557 820 4845 6930 78.19 263.0 368 155 85.3 81.3 65665 200 0.45 66.5 561 818 4895 6930 73.27 257.0 419 118 85.6 81.3 68473 215 0.40 67.0 568 808 4830 6850 76.50 240.0 417 102 85.6 81.3 73663 225 0.70 66.9 574 817 4855 6880 83.34 243.0 388 113 85.6 81.3 87345 215 0.55 69.8 572 812 4825 6880 60.09 240.0 383 138 85.6 81.3 87345 220 0.25 变化 2.9 -2 -5 -30 0.00 -23.25 -3.0 -5 25 0.0 0.0 0 5 -0.30 近端TA开工逐步回升，聚酯在瓶片减产下开工进一步下行，库存去化，基差震荡偏强，现货加工费仍有改善；PX海内外 ...

芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/11 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/0 6/04 64.9 563 825 4865 6950 87.21 262.0 360 161 85.3 81.3 55447 195 0.35 2025/0 6/05 65.3 557 820 4845 6930 78.19 263.0 368 155 85.3 81.3 65665 200 0.45 2025/0 6/06 66.5 561 818 4895 6930 73.27 257.0 419 118 85.6 81.3 68473 215 0.40 2025/0 6/09 67.0 568 808 4830 6850 76.50 240.0 417 102 85.6 81.3 73663 225 0.70 2025/0 6/10 66.9 574 817 4855 6880 76.50 243.0 388 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **PTA**: Near - term TA开工 is gradually rising, polyester开工 is further declining due to bottle - chip production cuts, inventory is decreasing, and the basis is oscillating strongly with improved spot processing fees. PX domestic and overseas maintenance is returning,开工 is rising, PXN and its structure are weakening. With downstream decline and bottle - chip contradictions remaining, and new TA devices approaching operation, an inventory inflection point is near. Consider shorting processing fees at high levels [2]. - **MEG**: Near - term domestic maintenance and restarts co - exist, overall开工 is basically flat, port inventory is continuously decreasing due to low arrivals, downstream stocking levels are slightly falling, the basis is slightly weakening, and profitability remains high. Although near - term inventory is decreasing under oil - based large - device rotation maintenance, the monthly spread is greatly affected by warehouse receipts, and the absolute valuation is not low [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Near - term production cuts by Sanfangxiang and Jiangnan have led to a slight decline in开工 to 92.1%, sales are stable, and inventory is slightly accumulating. On the demand side, polyester yarn开工 is stable, raw material stocking is flat, finished - product inventory is increasing, and profitability is oscillating at a low level. With a slight decline in staple - fiber supply and an improvement in profitability due to polyester开工 decline caused by bottle - chip production cuts, but without obvious downstream improvement, profitability is expected to remain weak [2]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber**: The main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory is slightly decreasing with an absolute level not being high, the price of Thai cup - lump rubber is slightly rebounding with expected good tapping enthusiasm, and the trade war is easing. The strategy is to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From June 3 to June 9, crude oil rose by $0.5 to $67.0, PTA spot price dropped by $80 to $6850, and the processing fee increased by $2. The average daily basis of PTA spot transactions was 2509(+208) [2]. - **Device Changes**: Honggang's 2.5 - million - ton device was put into operation, and Jiaxing Petrochemical's 1.5 - million - ton device was under maintenance [2]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From June 3 to June 9, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at $780, MEG domestic price dropped by $26 to $4382, and the coal - based profit decreased by $26 to $389 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Satellite's 900,000 - ton device was under maintenance, and Yankuang's 400,000 - ton device increased its load [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From June 3 to June 9, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber dropped by $25 to $6575, and the profit increased by $40 to - $39 [2]. - **Device Changes**: No device maintenance information was reported, but Sanfangxiang and Jiangnan cut production [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber - **Price Changes**: From June 3 to June 9, the US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber spot price remained at $1680, and the Shanghai full - latex rubber price rose by $320 to $13125 [3]. - **Other Indicators**: The national explicit inventory slightly decreased, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber slightly rebounded [3]. Styrene - **Price and Margin Changes**: From June 3 to June 9, the ethylene price remained at $780, the pure - benzene price in East China rose by $65 to $5920, and the styrene domestic profit remained at $138, while the EPS domestic profit dropped by $145 to $285 [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-06-09 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 目录 01 螺纹钢 险 资 偏 好 略 回 暖 ， 产 业 弱 叙 事 暂 无 根 本 性 改 变 板 块 淡 季 压 力 仍 在 ， 焦 煤 期 货 低 位 大 幅 反 弹 02 焦煤焦炭 03 铁矿石 结 构 性 矛 盾 并 未 影 响 基 本 面 的 边 际 走 弱 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 螺纹钢 螺纹钢：险资偏好略回暖，产业弱叙事暂无根本性改变 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 铁水日均产量继续小跌，幅度很平缓，主要原因还是在于长 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - PTA: Long - filament production cuts have been implemented, but additional supply cuts in TA have postponed the inventory inflection point. The far - month supply is likely to remain at a high level due to good profitability, but inventory changes are highly volatile under uncertain demand, so it is advisable to focus on the potential for production cuts in short - fiber and bottle - grade products in the near term [2]. - MEG: There are unexpected device issues in the near term. With an unexpected reduction in oil - based supply and short - term resilience in demand, port inventory is expected to decline more significantly. Attention should be paid to short - term positive arbitrage opportunities [3]. - Polyester Short Fiber: With the further compression of short - fiber spot profitability and no significant improvement in demand, the possibility of marginal supply reduction increases. Attention should be paid to short - term opportunities to expand processing margins [3]. - Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber: The main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory has slightly decreased, the price of Thai cup rubber has rebounded slightly, and the trade war has eased. The strategy is to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From May 29 to June 5, the price of crude oil increased by 0.4, the price of PTA decreased by 20, the PTA processing margin increased by 8, and the polyester gross profit increased by 6 [2]. - **Device Changes**: The 3 million - ton Jiatong device restarted [2]. - **Market Conditions**: In the near term, TA has both maintenance and restart, with a slight decline in the operating rate. After the implementation of long - filament production cuts, the polyester operating rate has decreased, inventory has continued to decline, the basis has strengthened, and the spot processing margin has remained basically flat [2]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From May 29 to June 5, the MEG outer - market price decreased by 1, the MEG inner - market price increased by 8, and the MEG coal - based profit decreased by 8 [3]. - **Device Changes**: The 340,000 - ton Yangzi device restarted, and the 400,000 - ton Yankuang device reduced its load [3]. - **Market Conditions**: In the near term, domestic oil - based devices have restarted while coal - based devices are under maintenance, with the overall operating rate basically flat. With less arrivals at ports, port inventory has continued to decline, downstream inventory levels have increased slightly, the basis has strengthened, and profitability has remained high [3]. Polyester Short Fiber - **Price and Profit Changes**: From May 29 to June 5, the price of 1.4D cotton - type short fiber decreased by 20, the short - fiber profit decreased by 6, and the pure - polyester yarn profit increased by 20 [3]. - **Market Conditions**: In the near term, device operation has been stable, with an operating rate of 93.2%. Production and sales have remained the same, and inventory has remained stable. On the demand side, the operating rate of polyester yarn has remained stable, raw material inventory has remained flat, and finished - product inventory has increased month - on - month, with profitability fluctuating at a low level [3]. Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber - **Price Changes**: From May 29 to June 5, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber decreased by 30, the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased by 260, and the price of Thai cup rubber decreased by 7 [3]. - **Spread and Other Changes**: The spread between mixed rubber and RU main contract decreased by 50, the spread between US - dollar Thai standard rubber and NR main contract increased by 34, and the spread between glue and cup rubber decreased by 0 [3]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: From May 29 to June 5, the price of ethylene remained unchanged, the price of pure benzene decreased by 5, and the price of styrene increased by 5 [4]. - **Profit Changes**: The domestic profit of styrene remained at 189, and the domestic profit of EPS decreased by 5 [4].