交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-9-29） 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平有所降低，总体供需宽松，港口库存减少，市场 将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价828，基差38；日照港巴混现货折合盘面价844，基差54，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14450.68万吨，环比增加，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方,20日线向上；中性 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：国内需求降低，去产能的计划冲击市场，高位震荡思路 铁矿石港口现货价格 利多： 利空： 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 4.下游钢材价格上涨，高价原料承受 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The overall supply and demand of iron ore are loose, with steel mills' hot metal production starting to decrease and the monthly arrival level at ports decreasing. The port inventory has decreased, and there are plans to introduce crude steel production reduction policies, while the trade war has eased. The market is expected to be in a high - level shock pattern due to reduced domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans [2]. - The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is a bullish factor. The price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is upward, also bullish. However, the net position of the main iron ore contract is short and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills' hot metal production is decreasing, supply arrival at ports this month is lower, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory is decreasing, there will be crude steel production reduction policies, and the trade war is easing, with a neutral outlook [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures - equivalent price is 834, with a basis of 34; the spot price of Brazilian blend at Rizhao Port converted to the futures - equivalent price is 841, with a basis of 41. The spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is 14,456.12 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, with a neutral outlook [2]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main iron ore contract is short and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: With reduced domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans, a high - level shock pattern is expected [2]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: High hot metal production, decreasing port inventory, import losses, and rising downstream steel prices with strong tolerance for high - priced raw materials [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Increased future shipments and weak terminal demand [6]. Other Aspects - The report also includes information on iron ore port spot prices [8], iron ore futures - spot basis [10], iron ore import profit [13], iron ore shipments [16], iron ore port and steel mill inventories [18], iron ore arrival and port clearance volumes [20], iron ore daily consumption [22], steel enterprise production conditions [25], and iron ore daily port trading volume and steel mills' daily hot metal production [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply and demand of iron ore are loose, with a decrease in port inventory. The market is expected to introduce crude steel production reduction policies, and the trade war has eased. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to reduced domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans [2]. - The iron ore market presents a neutral situation in terms of fundamentals, a bullish situation in terms of basis and price trend on the disk, and a bearish situation in terms of the main positions. The market is also affected by both positive and negative factors [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills' molten iron production has started to decrease, and the arrival volume this month has decreased. The overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory has decreased, and there are plans for crude steel production reduction and trade - war easing, showing a neutral situation [2]. - **Basis**: The spot - equivalent prices of PB powder and Brazilian blend in Rizhao Port have positive basis, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory is 14388.02 tons, showing a decrease both month - on - month and year - on - year, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is flat, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions of iron ore are net short, and the short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: With reduced domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans, the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. Positive Factors - Molten iron production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventory has decreased [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The price of downstream steel products has risen, and the ability to bear high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Negative Factors - The later shipping volume will increase [6]. - The terminal demand remains weak [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mill hot metal production is decreasing, the arrival level this month has decreased, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories are decreasing, and there will be a crude steel production reduction policy, with trade war easing, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 817 with a basis of 40, and the spot price of Brazilian Blend at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 831 with a basis of 54, showing that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is a bullish factor [2]. - Port inventories are 14,388.02 tons, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is flat, which is a bearish factor [2]. - The net position of the iron ore main contract is short and short positions are increasing, which is a bearish factor [2]. - With the domestic demand decreasing and the plan of capacity reduction impacting the market, the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Steel mill hot metal production starts to decrease, supply arrival this month is lower, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories decrease, there will be a crude steel production reduction policy, and trade war eases, neutral [2]. - Basis: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to futures price is 817, basis 40; Rizhao Port Brazilian Blend spot converted to futures price is 831, basis 54, spot premium to futures, bullish [2]. - Inventory: Port inventory is 14,388.02 tons, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, neutral [2]. - Disk: Price below 20 - day moving average, 20 - day moving average flat, bearish [2]. - Main Position: Net short position in the main iron ore contract, short positions increasing, bearish [2]. - Expectation: Domestic demand decreases, capacity reduction plan impacts the market, high - level fluctuation thinking [2]. 3.2. Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories decrease [6]. - Import losses [6]. - Downstream steel prices rise, with strong ability to bear high - priced raw materials [6]. 3.3. Bearish Factors - Later shipping volume will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mill hot metal production has started to decline, the arrival level this month has decreased, overall supply and demand is loose, port inventories have decreased, a crude steel production cut policy will be introduced, and the trade war has eased, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis shows that the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 802, with a basis of 36; the spot price of Brazilian Blend at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 820, with a basis of 54, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - Port inventories stand at 143.8802 million tons, showing a decrease both on a month - on - month and year - on - year basis, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is flat, which is bearish [2]. - The net position of the iron ore main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - With the expected decrease in domestic demand and the impact of the capacity - reduction plan on the market, a high - level consolidation approach is recommended [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Positive Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories are decreasing [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The price of downstream steel products is rising, and the ability to bear high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Negative Factors - The future shipping volume will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6]. Iron Ore Port Spot Price No specific content provided for summary. Iron Ore Futures - Spot Basis No specific content provided for summary. Iron Ore Import Profit No specific content provided for summary. Iron Ore Shipping Volume No specific content provided for summary. Iron Ore Port Inventory and Steel Mill Inventory No specific content provided for summary. Iron Ore Arrival and Dispatching Volume No specific content provided for summary. Iron Ore Daily Consumption No specific content provided for summary. Steel Enterprise Production Situation No specific content provided for summary. Iron Ore Port Daily Transactions and Steel Mill Daily Hot Metal No specific content provided for summary.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mill's hot metal production is decreasing, supply-side arrivals this month are lower, overall supply and demand are loose, port inventories are decreasing, and there will be policies to reduce crude steel production, with trade tensions easing; it's neutral [2]. - The basis of Rizhao Port PB powder and Brazilian mix shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price; it's bullish [2]. - Port inventories are 14381.57 tons, increasing month-on-month and decreasing year-on-year; it's neutral [2]. - The price on the disk coincides with the 20-day line, and the 20-day line is flat; it's neutral [2]. - The net position of the iron ore main contract is short, and short positions are increasing; it's bearish [2]. - With domestic demand decreasing and the plan to reduce production capacity impacting the market, the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1利多 (Positive Factors) - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories are decreasing [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The price of downstream steel products is rising, and the ability to bear high-priced raw materials is strong [6]. 3.2利空 (Negative Factors) - Future shipping volumes will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mill hot metal production is decreasing, the monthly arrival level on the supply side has decreased, overall supply and demand are loose, port inventories are decreasing, a crude steel production reduction policy will be introduced, and the trade war is easing, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that the spot price at Rizhao Port is at a premium to the futures price, which is a bullish factor [2]. - Port inventories are 143.8157 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is flat, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The net position of the iron ore main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is a bearish factor [2]. - With the expected decrease in domestic demand and the impact of the capacity - reduction plan on the market, the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Steel mill hot metal production is decreasing, supply - side arrival levels are down this month, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories are down, a crude steel production reduction policy is coming, and the trade war is easing, neutral [2]. - **Basis**: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to the futures price is 817, with a basis of 40; Rizhao Port Brazilian blend spot converted to the futures price is 829, with a basis of 53, spot at a premium to futures, bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories are 143.8157 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, neutral [2]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is flat, bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the iron ore main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Domestic demand is decreasing, and the capacity - reduction plan impacts the market, with a high - level fluctuation outlook [2]. Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories are decreasing [6]. - Import losses exist [6]. - Downstream steel prices are rising, with a strong ability to bear high - priced raw materials [6]. Bearish Factors - Later shipments will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mill hot metal production is decreasing, the arrival level this month has dropped, overall supply and demand are loose, port inventories are decreasing, a crude steel production cut policy will be introduced, and the trade war is easing, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that the spot prices of PB powder and Brazilian mix at Rizhao Port are at a premium to futures, which is bullish [2]. - Port inventories are 143.8157 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, being neutral [2]. - The price on the disk is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is flat, which is bullish [2]. - The net position of the iron ore main contract is short and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [2]. - With the expected decline in domestic demand and the impact of the capacity - reduction plan on the market, the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 利多 (Bullish Factors) - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories are decreasing [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The prices of downstream steel products are rising, with a strong ability to bear high - priced raw materials [6]. 利空 (Bearish Factors) - Future shipment volumes will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6]. Other Related Information - The report also contains information on iron ore port spot prices [7], iron ore basis [12], iron ore import profit [15], iron ore shipment volume [17], iron ore port and steel mill inventories [20], iron ore arrival and port clearance volume [22], iron ore daily consumption [25], steel enterprise production situation [28], and iron ore daily port transactions and steel mill daily hot metal production [30].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall market sentiment is positive, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten - year high. The upward trend of stock indices is clear in the medium and long term, while the bond market is under adjustment pressure. In the commodity market, different varieties show different trends, with some being bullish, some bearish, and some in a volatile pattern [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Financial Futures - **Stock Indices**: The trading - type funds are active, and the abundant liquidity drives the stock indices to strengthen. With the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high, the market sentiment is high. In the medium and long term, factors such as the transfer of household deposits, the bottom - up recovery of corporate profits, and continuous policy support will continue, so the long - term holding of stock index futures is recommended [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is in a weak state. The market's risk preference is optimistic, and the bond market sentiment is fragile. The risk of bond market adjustment may not be completely eliminated, especially for long - term bonds [1]. Commodity Futures Metals - **Gold**: The price is in a high - level volatile range. The market's prediction of the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has decreased. Attention should be paid to Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting and the marginal changes in the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [4]. - **Silver**: It maintains a bullish pattern. Although the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has cooled marginally, it is still a high - probability event. The macro - environment is generally favorable for the upward movement of the silver price [4]. - **Copper**: The price is in a volatile pattern. The medium - term upward driving force remains, but there are many short - term disturbances on the demand side, and the valuation is relatively high, so the upward momentum needs new drivers [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina is under pressure due to over - capacity, and the market's bullish sentiment has weakened. The support for Shanghai Aluminum is clear, and attention should be paid to changes in the demand side [4]. - **Nickel**: The price is in a narrow - range volatile pattern. The supply is not tightened, the demand elasticity is limited, and the high inventory suppresses the upward space. It is recommended to hold the short - call option [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resource end may still be disturbed. Although the current fundamentals are loose, there is still an expectation of resource tightening in the market, and the lithium price may fluctuate widely at a high level [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Due to serious oversupply, new short positions are recommended [2]. - **Silicon Energy**: The price of polysilicon has strong support. The price increase of each link in the photovoltaic industry chain supports the profit of upstream raw materials. Policy - favorable sentiment has fermented again [6]. - **Steel and Minerals** - **Rebar**: The fundamentals are weakening. The probability of the price oscillating downward has increased. It is recommended to adjust the short - put option position to the short - call option position [6]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The short - term price is likely to be weak. It is recommended to wait for the further accumulation of fundamental contradictions or the clarification of policy [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is expected to move within a range. It is recommended to try short positions at high prices [8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of coking coal is under pressure to fall, and the price of coke is likely to follow the coking coal price. [ - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both are in a state of strong expectation and weak reality, showing a volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait and see for soda ash and maintain an optimistic view on the 01 contract of glass. - **Crude Oil**: The market is in a bearish pattern. The consumption peak season is ending, and the supply surplus expectation is strengthening. - **Methanol**: The coastal supply is in surplus, and the price is in a bearish pattern. - **Polyolefins**: The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The supply and demand have been adjusted, and the inventory is decreasing. The market is concerned about the marginal improvement of downstream demand in the peak season. - **Rubber**: The supply - demand structure is improving, and the port inventory is decreasing, providing support for the price.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mill's hot metal production is decreasing, the arrival volume this month has decreased, the overall supply and demand is loose, port inventories are decreasing, a crude steel production reduction policy will be introduced, and the trade war is easing, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that the spot prices of PB powder and Brazilian mixed ore at Rizhao Port are at a premium to futures, which is bullish [2]. - Port inventories are 14,267.27 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - The net position of the main iron ore contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - With the expected reduction in domestic demand and the impact of the production capacity reduction plan on the market, a high - level oscillation mindset is recommended [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 利多 (Bullish Factors) - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories are decreasing [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The prices of downstream steel products are rising, and the ability to bear high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. 利空 (Bearish Factors) - Future shipping volumes will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6]. Iron Ore Port Spot Price - Not elaborated in the provided content Iron Ore Futures - Spot Basis - The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures - equivalent price is 812, with a basis of 38; the spot price of Brazilian mixed ore at Rizhao Port converted to the futures - equivalent price is 832, with a basis of 58, indicating that the spot is at a premium to the futures [2]. Iron Ore Import Profit - Not elaborated in the provided content Iron Ore Shipping Volume - Future shipping volumes will increase [6]. Iron Ore Port Inventory and Steel Mill Inventory - Port inventories are 14,267.27 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year [2]. Iron Ore Arrival and Dispatching Volume - Not elaborated in the provided content Iron Ore Daily Consumption - Not elaborated in the provided content Steel Enterprise Production Situation - Steel mill's hot metal production is starting to decrease [2]. Iron Ore Port Daily Transactions and Steel Mill Daily Hot Metal - Not elaborated in the provided content