交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-8-26） 每日观点 铁矿石： 利多： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平有所降低，总体供需宽松，港口库存减少，市场 将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价822，基差35；日照港巴混现货折合盘面价847，基差60，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14381.57万吨，环比增加，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方,20日线走平；偏多 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：国内需求降低，去产能的计划冲击市场，高位震荡思路 利空： 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 4.下游钢材价格上涨，高价原料承受能力强 1. 后期发 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall market sentiment is positive, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten - year high. The upward trend of stock indices is clear in the medium and long term, while the bond market is under adjustment pressure. In the commodity market, different varieties show different trends, with some being bullish, some bearish, and some in a volatile pattern [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Financial Futures - **Stock Indices**: The trading - type funds are active, and the abundant liquidity drives the stock indices to strengthen. With the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high, the market sentiment is high. In the medium and long term, factors such as the transfer of household deposits, the bottom - up recovery of corporate profits, and continuous policy support will continue, so the long - term holding of stock index futures is recommended [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is in a weak state. The market's risk preference is optimistic, and the bond market sentiment is fragile. The risk of bond market adjustment may not be completely eliminated, especially for long - term bonds [1]. Commodity Futures Metals - **Gold**: The price is in a high - level volatile range. The market's prediction of the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has decreased. Attention should be paid to Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting and the marginal changes in the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [4]. - **Silver**: It maintains a bullish pattern. Although the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has cooled marginally, it is still a high - probability event. The macro - environment is generally favorable for the upward movement of the silver price [4]. - **Copper**: The price is in a volatile pattern. The medium - term upward driving force remains, but there are many short - term disturbances on the demand side, and the valuation is relatively high, so the upward momentum needs new drivers [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina is under pressure due to over - capacity, and the market's bullish sentiment has weakened. The support for Shanghai Aluminum is clear, and attention should be paid to changes in the demand side [4]. - **Nickel**: The price is in a narrow - range volatile pattern. The supply is not tightened, the demand elasticity is limited, and the high inventory suppresses the upward space. It is recommended to hold the short - call option [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resource end may still be disturbed. Although the current fundamentals are loose, there is still an expectation of resource tightening in the market, and the lithium price may fluctuate widely at a high level [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Due to serious oversupply, new short positions are recommended [2]. - **Silicon Energy**: The price of polysilicon has strong support. The price increase of each link in the photovoltaic industry chain supports the profit of upstream raw materials. Policy - favorable sentiment has fermented again [6]. - **Steel and Minerals** - **Rebar**: The fundamentals are weakening. The probability of the price oscillating downward has increased. It is recommended to adjust the short - put option position to the short - call option position [6]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The short - term price is likely to be weak. It is recommended to wait for the further accumulation of fundamental contradictions or the clarification of policy [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is expected to move within a range. It is recommended to try short positions at high prices [8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of coking coal is under pressure to fall, and the price of coke is likely to follow the coking coal price. [ - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both are in a state of strong expectation and weak reality, showing a volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait and see for soda ash and maintain an optimistic view on the 01 contract of glass. - **Crude Oil**: The market is in a bearish pattern. The consumption peak season is ending, and the supply surplus expectation is strengthening. - **Methanol**: The coastal supply is in surplus, and the price is in a bearish pattern. - **Polyolefins**: The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The supply and demand have been adjusted, and the inventory is decreasing. The market is concerned about the marginal improvement of downstream demand in the peak season. - **Rubber**: The supply - demand structure is improving, and the port inventory is decreasing, providing support for the price.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-8-11） 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平有所降低，总体供需宽松，港口库存减少，市场 将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 利多： 利空： 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 4.下游钢材价格上涨，高价原料承受能力强 1. 后期发货量增加。 2. 终端需求依旧弱势。 铁矿石港口现货价格 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价812，基差38；日照港巴混现货折合盘面价832，基差58，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14267.27万吨，环比增加，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方,20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mill hot metal production has started to decline, the arrival level at ports has decreased this month, overall supply and demand are loose, port inventories have decreased, and there will be policies to reduce crude steel production, while the trade war has eased, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that the spot prices of PB powder and Brazilian blend at Rizhao Port are at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2]. - Port inventories are 14,395.68 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - The net position of the iron ore main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - With the expected decrease in domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans on the market, a high - level oscillation mindset is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Positive Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories are decreasing [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - Downstream steel prices are rising, and the ability to bear high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Negative Factors - Future shipment volumes will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6]. Other Catalog - Related Information - **Iron ore port spot price**: No specific content is provided in the given text. - **Iron ore basis**: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to the futures price is 824, with a basis of 21; Rizhao Port Brazilian blend spot converted to the futures price is 825, with a basis of 23, and the spot is at a premium to the futures [2]. - **Iron ore import profit**: No specific content is provided in the given text. - **Iron ore shipment volume**: No specific content is provided in the given text. - **Iron ore port and steel mill inventories**: Port inventories are 14,395.68 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year [2]. - **Iron ore arrival and dispatch volumes**: No specific content is provided in the given text. - **Iron ore daily consumption**: No specific content is provided in the given text. - **Steel enterprise production situation**: No specific content is provided in the given text. - **Iron ore port daily transactions and steel mill daily hot metal**: No specific content is provided in the given text.

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is mentioned in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints The overall view on iron ore is to think in a range with a slight upward bias. The fundamentals show that steel mill's hot metal production has started to decrease, the arrival level this month has decreased, the overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory has decreased, and there will be a crude steel reduction policy. The market situation is affected by factors such as the potential reduction of domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans. The basis shows that spot prices are at a premium to futures, and the inventory has increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. The price is above the 20 - day line with an upward 20 - day line, but the main position is net short with an increase in short positions [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - **Fundamentals**: Steel mill's hot metal production decreases, supply arrival level drops this month, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory decreases, and there will be a crude steel reduction policy with trade war easing; neutral [2] - **Basis**: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to futures price is 827 with a basis of 4; Qingdao Port Chaote powder spot converted to futures price is 887 with a basis of 64, spot at a premium to futures; neutral [2] - **Inventory**: Port inventory is 14381.51 tons, increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year; neutral [2] - **Disk**: Price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is upward; bullish [2] - **Main Position**: Iron ore main position is net short with an increase in short positions; bearish [2] - **Expectation**: Domestic demand decreases, capacity - reduction plans impact the market, think in a range with a slight upward bias [2] Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: High hot metal production, decreasing port inventory, import losses, and rising downstream steel prices with strong tolerance for high - priced raw materials [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Increased future shipment volume and weak terminal demand [6] Other Catalogs - **Iron Ore Port Spot Price**: No specific content provided in the summary part [8] - **Iron Ore Futures - Spot Basis**: No specific content provided in the summary part [12] - **Iron Ore Import Profit**: No specific content provided in the summary part [14] - **Iron Ore Shipment Volume**: No specific content provided in the summary part [17] - **Iron Ore Port Inventory and Steel Mill Inventory**: No specific content provided in the summary part [20] - **Iron Ore Arrival Volume and Dredging Volume**: No specific content provided in the summary part [25] - **Iron Ore Daily Consumption**: No specific content provided in the summary part [28] - **Steel Enterprise Production Situation**: No specific content provided in the summary part [31] - **Iron Ore Port Daily Average Transaction and Steel Mill Daily Average Hot Metal**: No specific content provided in the summary part [34]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mill hot metal production is decreasing, the arrival level this month has dropped, the overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories are decreasing, there are rumors of crude steel reduction policies, and the trade war is easing, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that spot prices at Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port are at a premium to futures, showing a neutral state [2]. - Port inventories stand at 14,381.51 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is neutral [2]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is upward, showing a bullish tendency [2]. - The net position of the iron ore main contract is short, with short positions decreasing, showing a bearish tendency [2]. - With the expected decline in domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans on the market, the market is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Steel mill hot metal production decreases, supply arrival drops, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories decrease, there are rumors of crude steel reduction policies, and the trade war eases, neutral [2]. - **Basis**: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to futures price is 827, basis is 18; Qingdao Port Super Special powder spot converted to futures price is 887, basis is 78, spot at a premium to futures, neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is 14,381.51 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, neutral [2]. - **Disk**: Price above 20 - day moving average and 20 - day moving average upward, bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: Net short position of the main iron ore contract, short positions decreasing, bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Domestic demand declines, capacity - reduction plans impact the market, market expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [2]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Likely to be Bullish**: High hot metal production, decreasing port inventories, import losses, rising downstream steel prices with strong tolerance for high - priced raw materials [6]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Increased future shipments, weak terminal demand [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - International macro uncertainty weakens and risk preference rises, combined with a short - term increase in domestic macro expectations. The market trading focus may gradually shift to "strong reality + strong expectation". With the decrease in foreign ore shipments and the high - level decline of arrivals leading to inventory depletion, and demand remaining at a relatively high level, it is expected that the short - term iron ore futures price will fluctuate within a range with a strong upward trend. Later, attention should be paid to the incremental policies of the Politburo meeting [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Logic - The market has gradually accepted the Trump TACO deal, and the marginal impact of Sino - US tariffs has weakened. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the market risk preference becomes positive, which boosts the valuation of commodities. In China, monetary and fiscal policies are taking effect in advance, with existing policies providing support and strong expectations for incremental policies. The macro - environment has a positive impact on iron ore prices, and short - term macro expectations dominate price movements, combined with a reversal of fundamental expectations [2] Supply - Recent foreign ore shipments have entered a phased decline cycle. Australian BHP and FMG mines entered the maintenance period in early July after the fiscal - year volume rush, while Brazilian shipments remained at a relatively medium - to - high level. Short - term arrivals are expected to decline from the high level, reducing the near - end supply pressure. However, the recent rebound of the overseas price to $100/ton may stimulate an increase in non - mainstream ore supply if the price remains high [2] Demand - China's daily average hot metal production has stopped falling and rebounded, with the current daily average hot metal output at 242.44 (a month - on - month increase of 2.63). The current profitability rate of steel mills is relatively high, and the blast furnace profit is considerable. Coupled with the deep losses of the short - process steelmaking and the high cost - effectiveness of hot metal, the short - term demand for iron ore is expected to remain resilient, and the high domestic demand strongly supports the price [2] Inventory - Steel mills' daily consumption of imported ore has increased, and the inventory level has continued to decline. With the continuous rise of iron ore prices recently, the expectation of steel mills to replenish inventory is strong. Arrivals have declined from the high level, while the port clearance volume and hot metal output have increased simultaneously. The port inventory has slightly increased this period, and it is expected that the inventory will generally remain stable or decline slightly later [2] Price - The price will fluctuate with a strong upward trend [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - International macro uncertainty weakens and risk preference rises. Short - term domestic macro expectations strengthen, and the market trading focus may gradually shift to trading strong reality and strong expectations. With the decline in foreign ore shipments and short - term high - level decline in arrivals leading to inventory depletion, and demand remaining at a relatively high level, the short - term iron ore futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly in a range. Later, attention should be paid to whether hot metal production rebounds unexpectedly and policy increments from the Politburo meeting [3] - The price will fluctuate strongly in a range. The price range of the i2509 contract is 760 yuan/ton - 790 yuan/ton, and the price range of the outer - market FE08 contract is 99 - 105 US dollars/ton [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Contents Logic - Rio Tinto released its second - quarter report yesterday, with a year - on - year increase of 5.36% in production and a year - on - year decrease of 0.53% in sales. Its shipping completion rate is low, and the expectation of reaching the lower limit of the annual target remains unchanged, with the shipping volume expectation revised down compared to the beginning of the year. The market has gradually accepted Trump's TACO deal, the marginal impact of Sino - US tariffs has weakened, and with the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the market risk preference has become more positive, boosting the valuation of commodities. Domestic monetary and fiscal policies have taken effect in advance, and there are still strong expectations for incremental policies, which have a positive impact on iron ore prices [1] Supply - Recently, foreign ore shipments have entered a phased decline cycle. After the end - of - fiscal - year volume rush of Australian BHP and FMG mines, they entered the maintenance period in early July, while Brazilian shipments remained at a relatively medium - to - high level. Short - term arrivals are expected to decline from the high level, reducing the near - end supply pressure. However, the recent rebound of the outer - market price to 100 US dollars/ton may stimulate an increase in non - mainstream ore supply if the price remains high [1] Demand - The domestic daily average hot metal output has declined slightly for two consecutive weeks, with the current daily average hot metal output at 239.81 (a month - on - month decrease of 1.04). But the current profitability rate of steel mills is high, and the blast furnace profit is relatively good. Coupled with the full - scale deep losses of short - process steelmaking and the still - high cost - effectiveness of hot metal, the short - term demand for iron ore is expected to remain resilient, and the slight decline in demand has a weak impact on prices [1] Inventory - Due to the continuous rise in iron ore prices recently, steel mills have replenished their stocks to some extent, and their imported ore inventory has increased month - on - month. As the arrivals have continued to decline month - on - month, port inventories have decreased for two consecutive weeks. It is expected that the overall inventory will gradually accumulate slightly later, but the inventory accumulation pressure is weak [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The international macro uncertainty weakens and the risk preference rises. In the short term, the domestic macro expectation is enhanced. The market trading focus may gradually shift to the strong reality and strong expectation. With the decrease in foreign ore shipments and the short - term high - level decline in arrivals leading to inventory depletion, and the demand remaining at a relatively high level, the short - term iron ore futures price is expected to oscillate strongly in a range. Later, attention should be paid to whether the hot metal production rebounds beyond expectations and the incremental policies from the Politburo meeting. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in a range, with the i2509 contract price ranging from 760 yuan/ton to 790 yuan/ton and the outer - disk FE08 contract price ranging from 99 to 105 US dollars/ton [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - Yesterday, the market declined slightly, and the incremental expectation of real - estate policies was disappointed. However, the economic data in the first half of the year was good, showing strong economic resilience. The market has gradually accepted the Trump TACO transaction, and the impact of Sino - US tariffs has weakened marginally. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the market risk preference has become positive, boosting the valuation of commodities. The domestic monetary and fiscal policies have taken effect in advance, with existing policies providing support and strong expectations for incremental policies. The macro - environment has a positive impact on iron ore prices [3] Supply - Recently, foreign ore shipments have entered a phased decline cycle. Australian mines BHP and FMG entered the maintenance period in early July after the fiscal - year volume rush, while Brazilian shipments remained at a relatively medium - to - high level. The short - term arrivals are expected to decline from the high level, reducing the near - end supply pressure. However, the outer - disk price has rebounded to 100 US dollars/ton. If the price remains high, it may stimulate an increase in non - mainstream ore supply [3] Demand - The domestic daily average hot metal output has declined slightly for two consecutive weeks, with the current daily average hot metal output at 239.81 (a week - on - week decrease of 1.04). But the current profitability rate of steel mills is high, and the blast - furnace profit is considerable. Coupled with the deep losses in the short - process steelmaking and the still - high cost - performance of hot metal, the short - term demand for iron ore is expected to remain resilient, and the slight decline in demand has a weak impact on prices [3] Inventory - Due to the continuous rise in iron ore prices, steel mills have replenished their stocks to some extent, and their imported ore inventory has increased week - on - week. As the arrivals have continued to decline week - on - week, the port inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks. It is expected that the overall inventory will gradually accumulate slightly in the later period, but the pressure of inventory accumulation is weak [3]

Summary of Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply and demand of iron ore are loose, with a decrease in port inventory. There are rumors of a crude steel production reduction policy, and the trade war has eased. The market is expected to be volatile with a slight upward trend, considering factors such as reduced domestic demand, decreased shipping volume, and domestic capacity - reduction plans [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - Steel mill hot metal production has started to decrease, and the monthly arrival level on the supply side has decreased. The overall supply - demand is loose, and port inventory has decreased [2]. 3.2 Basis Analysis - The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 787, with a basis of 23; the spot price of Super Special powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price is 855, with a basis of 91. The spot is at a premium to the futures [2]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - Port inventory is 14,485.9 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year [2]. 3.4 Market Trend Analysis - The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [2]. 3.5 Main Position Analysis - The net position of the main iron ore contract is short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. 3.6 Expectation Analysis - Domestic demand is decreasing, shipping volume is decreasing, and domestic capacity - reduction plans will impact the market. The market is expected to be volatile with a slight upward trend [2]. 3.7 Factors Analysis - **Positive factors**: High hot metal production, decreasing port inventory, and import losses [5]. - **Negative factors**: Increased future shipping volume and weak terminal demand [5].