公司研究 赵丹晨 食品饮料行业分析师 执业编号：S1500523080005 联系电话：13806086406 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 成本红利，费率下降贡献利润 2025 年 4 月 30 日 [T青ab岛le_啤St酒ockAndRank] (600600.SH) 上次评级 买入 执业编号：S1500523110003 联系电话：15680937306 邮 箱：chenglili@cindasc.com [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 投资评级 买入 [T事ab件le：_S青um岛m啤ar酒y]发布 2025 年一季度报告，2024Q1 实现营收 104.46 亿元， 同比+2.91%，归母净利润 17.10 亿元，同比+7.1%，扣非归母净利润 16.03 亿元，同比+5.9%。 点评： | | | [T重a要bl财e_务P指ro标fit] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Hengli Hydraulic Company Overview - **Company**: Hengli Hydraulic - **Industry**: Hydraulic equipment manufacturing Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - **2024 Loss**: Expected loss of approximately 100 million yuan due to specific project impacts, despite nearly 10% sales revenue growth in hydraulic pump and valve market share [2][3] - **Revenue Growth**: Total revenue reached a historical high with an increase of 450 million yuan [3] - **Net Profit**: Net profit for 2024 was 1.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 13% [2][8] - **Q1 2025 Performance**: Core product profitability remained stable, with filter core business growing approximately 20% year-on-year [11] Product and Market Dynamics - **Product Gross Margin**: 2024 gross margin increased by nearly 1 percentage point, but Q1 2025 saw a decline of 0.6 percentage points due to slight decreases in casting parts prices [2][6] - **Sales Composition**: Domestic sales accounted for 77% of total sales, up nearly 4 percentage points, while overseas sales made up 23%, increasing by about 8% [2][8] - **Excavator Cylinder Revenue**: Revenue from excavator cylinders decreased by about 10%, while non-excavator cylinders grew by over 15% [2][3] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - **2025 Capital Expenditure**: Estimated at over 400 million yuan for equipment payments, with total fixed asset investments in Mexico around 1 billion yuan [5][16] - **Cash Flow**: Q1 2025 cash flow showed significant fluctuations, with cash payments increasing by approximately 80 million yuan mainly for salaries and taxes [4] Business Segment Performance - **Segment Growth**: Non-standard cylinder segment grew by over 20%, driven by demand in new energy, shield tunneling, and marine engineering sectors [8][26] - **Pump and Motor Systems**: Total revenue for pump and motor systems reached 3.79 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of over 9% [8] R&D and Future Outlook - **R&D Investment**: R&D expenses remained stable, with a focus on new business segments [9] - **Future Profitability**: Anticipated gradual decrease in overall expense ratios as revenue grows, with new business income expected to stabilize [12] Market Share and Competitive Position - **Market Share in 2024**: Small excavator pump and valve market share was approximately 50%, while medium and large excavator market share was around 30% [22] - **Long-term Potential**: There is significant potential for increasing market share in small and medium-sized pumps and valves, with a focus on product innovation to meet strict supply chain requirements from major clients like Caterpillar [22][24] Challenges and Strategic Responses - **Overseas Revenue Decline**: Q1 2025 saw a decrease in overseas revenue due to market changes in Europe and North America [19] - **Collaboration with Foreign Firms**: Ongoing partnerships with foreign excavator manufacturers, including Japanese companies, to enhance product adaptability and meet regional demands [23][24] Specific Business Developments - **New Projects**: The four-cylinder project has developed over ten products and entered mass production, with the Mexico factory starting small-scale production [7][11] - **Agricultural Machinery**: Agricultural machinery business contributed approximately 200-300 million yuan in revenue in 2024, with expectations for over 20% growth in 2025 [28] Industrial Sector Growth - **Industrial Sector Goals**: The pure industrial sector aims for over 30% annual growth, supported by pricing strategies influenced by competitors [29] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the financial performance, market dynamics, and strategic outlook of Hengli Hydraulic.

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 12.11 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 330 million yuan, an increase of 91.3% [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and a net profit of 110 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 123.3%. The non-recurring net profit was -15 million yuan, a reduction in losses by 63 million yuan year-on-year [1] - The 2024 annual report reclassified categories such as wood coatings and adhesives into basic materials, affecting revenue growth rates for the year and Q1 2025 [1] Operational Analysis - The retail new business model showed strong growth, with home decoration and engineering wall paint revenues of 2.97 billion yuan and 4.08 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting year-on-year increases of 12.8% and a decrease of 12.7%, respectively. In Q1 2025, revenues were 650 million yuan and 590 million yuan, with year-on-year increases of 8.0% and 9.4% [2] - The gross margin stabilized and improved, with a gross margin of 32.5% in Q4 2024, an increase of 0.44 percentage points year-on-year, and 31.05% in Q1 2025, an increase of 2.67 percentage points year-on-year [2] Cost Management - The expense ratio decreased to 25.7% in 2024, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, with the sales expense ratio decreasing by 0.8 percentage points. In Q1 2025, the expense ratio was 31.4%, down 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company reduced its workforce to 8,996 employees by the end of 2024, a decrease of 836 employees year-on-year, including a reduction of 516 sales personnel [3] Cash Flow and Growth Strategy - The company achieved positive cash flow for the first time in Q1, with operating cash flow of 1.1 billion yuan, compared to -260 million yuan in the same period last year. The operating cash flow for 2024 was 1.01 billion yuan [4] - The shift from large B to C and small B channels has led to stable cash flow performance, highlighting the retail focus and true "consumption" attributes [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain stable profitability in its new growth phase, with revised net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 900 million yuan and 1.25 billion yuan, respectively [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 28.5 and 20.5 times for 2025 and 2026, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [5]

国金证券股份有限公司李阳,陈伟豪近期对三棵树进行研究并发布了研究报告《逐步兑现利润》，给予三 棵树买入评级。 三棵树(603737) 首次Q1现金流转正。2024年经营性现金流10.1亿，且2022-2023年分别为9.6、14.1亿，随着大B转向C端 +小B，渠道结构调整后的现金流表现稳定。25Q1经营性现金流1.1亿，去年同期-2.6亿，历史首次Q1现金 流转正，零售优先体现真正的"消费"属性。 盈利预测、估值与评级 我们看好公司在新成长阶段，盈利能力更加稳定，一季度新业态保持高成长、且已逐步兑现利润，我们上 调公司2025-2026年归母净利润预测分别为9.0、12.5亿元（原为8.5、12.1亿元），当前股价对应PE为 28.5、20.5倍，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 零售渠道拓展不及预期；其他建材和工业涂料等品类扩张不及预期；原材料价格波动和行业竞争超预期； 地产需求下行超预期。 证券之星数据中心根据近三年发布的研报数据计算，民生证券李阳研究员团队对该股研究较为深入，近三 年预测准确度均值为23.9%，其预测2025年度归属净利润为盈利7.31亿，根据现价换算的预测PE为35。 最新盈利预测明细如 ...

股民朋友们，是不是总遇到这种崩溃时刻: 年报看某公司利润高、营收涨, 冲进去就被套! 这种现象背后往往暗藏多重玄机。上一篇文章 为您初步走进了预期差的秘密:只看业绩,等于闭 着眼睛炒股! TV FRIES VII/ 每只有活用用 和营收数据吗? 盈利质量检测为低进 »年报季 (二) 本篇我们深挖业绩本身:业绩只看利润和营 收,同样等于闭着眼睛炒股!利润和营收只是表 象,盈利质量才是决定公司价值的核心，让我们继 续为您揭开年报迷雾,建立更立体的投资视角。 业绩只看利润和营收 等于闭着眼炒股! 看增长逻辑: 利润与收入的"速度 竟赛" 藏真相 · 情景:某股民看到某公司净利润同比涨80%, 果断买入,却不知收入仅增5%。后来才发 现,利润靠卖资产撑着,主业早走下坡路,最 后股价暴跌。 · 深度分析:收入是利润的"根基",正常情况 下,收入增长应带动利润协同增长。若净利润 增幅远高于收入,需警惕"非经常性收益"科目 的注水。非经常性收益如资产出售、补贴等 等,往往不可持续,无法支撑长期盈利。反 之，若利润增速跑输收入，可能是成本费用失 控,或行业竞争加剧,侵蚀利润空间。健康的 盈利结构,应是核心业务贡献主要收入和利 ...