转自：前瞻产业研究院 行业主要上市公司：恒立液压(601100);艾迪精密(603638);中航重机(600765);合锻智能（维权）(603011); 邵阳液压(301079)等。 本文核心内容：液压行业产业链;液压行业全景图谱 液压行业产业链全景梳理 目前我国液压产业链上游主要为钢铁、配件和工作介质，其中钢铁包括圆钢 钢管、模锻件等钢材，配 件包括密封件、五金标准件、塑料等，工作介质是液压油;液压中游主要为液压的生产，从产品功能区 分包括液压马达、液压泵、液压阀、液压油缸、液压系统;液压的下游主要为各个大型工程领域，包括 工程机械、航空航天、机床工具、农业机械、汽车工业、重型机械等。 液压行业产业链区域热力地 液压行业的上游行业主要有三类，分别是钢铁、配件和工作介质，其中钢铁供应一般是国内大型钢铁联 合企业，包括宝钢股份、鞍钢股份、河钢股份等;工作介质指的是液压油，代表企业有康普顿、中晟高 科、统一等。 液压行业中游制造企业有恒立液压、邵阳液压、合锻智能、艾迪精密、川润股份、鲍斯股份。 液压行业下游主要是工程机械、农业机械、机床工具、汽车工业等行业，其中工程机械行业额有潍柴动 力额、中联重科、三一重工等; ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent ownership change of Changling Hydraulic has progressed, with the completion of the share transfer process, leading to a new control structure involving significant players in the semiconductor industry and state-owned enterprises [1][3][6]. Group 1: Ownership Change Details - On November 15, Changling Hydraulic announced the completion of the share transfer, with Hu Kangqiao and state-owned enterprises acquiring a combined 41.99% stake [1][3]. - The total transaction amount for the ownership change is approximately 20.88 billion yuan, with Hu Kangqiao's group contributing around 14.68 billion yuan for 29.99% of the shares [2][5][6]. - Following the transaction, the actual controllers of the company will include the Jiangyin High-tech Zone State-owned Assets Office, Hu Kangqiao, and Xu Lantao [2][6]. Group 2: Background of New Controllers - Hu Kangqiao, the new key figure, has a strong background in semiconductor design, having founded Corelink Interconnect and raised over 600 million yuan in funding from top investment firms [2][8][9]. - Corelink Interconnect specializes in mixed-signal chip design and has been recognized as a national-level "little giant" enterprise, indicating its significant role in the semiconductor industry [9][10]. Group 3: Financial Performance of Changling Hydraulic - Changling Hydraulic has faced declining financial performance since its IPO in 2021, with revenue fluctuating between 806 million yuan and 907 million yuan and net profit decreasing from 202 million yuan to 95 million yuan [12][13]. - Despite the financial struggles, the company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, distributing 94 million yuan and 61 million yuan in cash dividends for 2024 and 2025, respectively [14].

Core Viewpoint - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing significant growth, with September data showing a 25.4% year-on-year increase in excavator sales, driven by both domestic and international markets [4][7]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In the first eight months of the year, excavator sales reached 154,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.2% [7]. - Domestic sales accounted for 80,600 units, up 21.5%, while August alone saw sales of 7,685 units, reflecting a 14.8% increase [9]. - Export sales of excavators reached 73,600 units, marking a 12.8% year-on-year growth, with August exports at 8,838 units, up 11.1% [11]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The growth in domestic sales is attributed to strong demand for equipment updates and the initiation of large projects such as the Yajiang Hydropower Station and rural road reconstruction [9]. - The export market is buoyed by recovery in North America and Europe, alongside strong infrastructure demands in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa [11]. Group 3: Company Insights - Sany Heavy Industry reported a total market value of 198.8 billion, with overseas revenue of 26.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, making up 60.3% of total revenue [17]. - Sany's overseas revenue from the Asia-Pacific region grew by 16.3%, while Africa saw a 40.5% increase [17]. - Heli Hydraulic's total market value is 132 billion, with excavator cylinder sales increasing by over 15% in the first half of 2025 [21]. - Zoomlion's total market value is 72.1 billion, with overseas revenue of 13.81 billion, a 14.7% increase, and a significant growth in Africa of over 179% [23].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.171 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.00%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.429 billion yuan, up 10.97% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.749 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.24%, and a net profit of 812 million yuan, reflecting an 18.31% increase year-on-year [1] - The company has seen rapid growth in hydraulic pumps and valves, with a significant increase in market share in non-excavation industries [1] Revenue and Profit Performance - For H1 2025, the company sold 308,300 hydraulic cylinders for excavators, marking a year-on-year growth of over 15% [1] - The company has made continuous breakthroughs in hydraulic pumps and valves for medium and large excavators, leading to an increase in product market share [1] - Sales of hydraulic pumps and valves for non-excavation industries grew by over 30%, with significant sales in high-altitude work platforms, loaders, and agricultural machinery [1] R&D and Innovation - The company has increased its R&D investment, successfully breaking foreign technology monopolies with its self-developed digital servo industrial valves [2] - The automated production line for handle valves has been successfully launched, significantly enhancing the production capacity of fully electric handles [2] - The company has introduced multiple innovative products, including electronic pumps and voice coil valves, which have gained wide market recognition [2] Product Diversification - The linear actuator business has shown rapid growth, with over 50 new products developed and launched in H1 2025 [2] - The product portfolio includes precision lead screws, linear guides, and electric cylinders, reinforcing the company's technological leadership in electric and hydraulic transmission [2] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to implement a mid-term profit distribution plan for 2025, proposing a cash dividend of 3.00 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 402 million yuan, which accounts for 16.03% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 [2] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 2.825 billion yuan, 3.227 billion yuan, and 3.812 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]

Group 1 - The report highlights the recovery of revenue and net profit for Guobo Electronics in Q2 2025, with a revenue of 7.2 billion yuan, up 18.23% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.44 billion yuan, up 16.20% year-on-year [6][7] - Dameng Data, a leading domestic database company, reported a significant increase in net profit margin, achieving a revenue of 5.23 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year growth of 48.65%, and a net profit of 2.05 billion yuan, up 98.36% year-on-year [9][10] - Zhaowei Electromechanical reported a revenue of 7.9 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.9%, with a net profit of 1.1 billion yuan, up 20.7% year-on-year [16] - Hengli Hydraulic achieved a revenue of 51.7 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%, and a net profit of 14.3 billion yuan, up 11.0% year-on-year [21][22] - The report indicates that the electric tool and cross-border e-commerce sectors are significant growth drivers for Juxing Technology, with a revenue increase of 56.03% in the electric tool segment [24][26] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the strong performance of Dongwu Securities, with a revenue of 44.28 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 33.63%, and a net profit of 19.32 billion yuan, up 65.76% year-on-year [28][29] - Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group reported a revenue of 57.27 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.62%, with a net profit of 2.90 billion yuan, up 9.99% year-on-year [32][33] - The report notes that Beifang Navigation experienced a significant revenue increase of 481.19% year-on-year, reaching 17.03 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a net profit of 1.16 billion yuan, up 256.59% year-on-year [37][38] - The textile and apparel sector, represented by Shenzhou International, achieved a revenue of 149.66 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year growth of 15.3%, with a net profit of 31.77 billion yuan, up 8.4% year-on-year [41][42]

Core Viewpoint - The company continues to show growth in its main business, with the linear actuator segment entering a phase of realization, leading to a "buy" rating for Hengli Hydraulic [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 5.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.43 billion yuan, up 11.0% year-on-year [2] - In Q2 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 2.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.5%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 810 million yuan, up 18.3% year-on-year and 31.4% quarter-on-quarter [2] Profitability Metrics - Q2 2025 marked a new high for quarterly net profit and the second-highest revenue, with a net profit margin increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The gross profit margin for Q2 2025 was 44%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year; the net profit margin was 29.6%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [3] Cost Structure - The total expense ratio for the period was 12.5%, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year; management expenses increased due to a rise in employee numbers and salaries, while financial expenses decreased due to increased exchange gains [3] Market Dynamics - The excavator industry saw sales of 120,500 units in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%; the company sold 308,300 hydraulic cylinders for excavators, up over 15% year-on-year [3] - Sales of hydraulic pump and valve products in non-excavator sectors grew by over 30%, with total sales nearing last year's levels [3] Product Development - The company has developed over 50 new products in the first half of 2025, all of which have successfully transitioned to mass production [4] - The Mexico factory has officially commenced operations, expected to accelerate breakthroughs with foreign clients, although it reported a slight loss of 13,480 yuan during the reporting period [4] Investment Outlook - The company is a leading player in the hydraulic components industry, benefiting from the recovery in excavator demand; the electric business and global expansion are expected to contribute to performance in the medium to long term [5] - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are 2.11, 2.42, and 2.90 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 39.8, 34.7, and 29.0 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's second-quarter performance accelerated, achieving a record high net profit for a single quarter, with revenue of 2.749 billion yuan, up 11.24% year-on-year, and a net profit of 812 million yuan, up 18.31% year-on-year [8] - The company has seen a recovery in excavator cylinder sales, with over 308,300 units sold in the first half of the year, representing a growth of over 15% [8] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, with its largest overseas production base in Mexico now operational, and has developed over 50 new products in its linear actuator project [8] - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 2.905 billion, 3.447 billion, and 4.087 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 38.7, 32.6, and 27.5 [8] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.171 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and a net profit of 1.429 billion yuan, up 10.97% year-on-year [8] - The gross margin for the second quarter was 44.01%, an increase of 0.89 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 29.59%, up 1.79 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company's operating cash flow for the first half of the year was 619 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.25%, indicating improving cash flow conditions [8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023A: 8,985 million yuan, 2024A: 9,390 million yuan, 2025E: 10,672 million yuan, 2026E: 12,343 million yuan, 2027E: 14,353 million yuan [7] - Net profit projections are: 2023A: 2,499 million yuan, 2024A: 2,509 million yuan, 2025E: 2,905 million yuan, 2026E: 3,447 million yuan, 2027E: 4,087 million yuan [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 96.60 [1][5]. Core Views - The company reported a record high net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 14.29 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.97%. The revenue for the same period was RMB 51.71 billion, up 7.00% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 27.49 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.24%, and a net profit of RMB 8.12 billion, up 18.31% year-on-year [1]. - The growth in performance is primarily driven by the recovery in the engineering machinery industry, which has led to increased sales of excavator products. The company's global layout is expected to bring new opportunities, and the linear actuator project is anticipated to open new market spaces [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company sold 308,300 excavator cylinders, achieving a year-on-year growth of over 15%. The hydraulic pump and valve products for medium and large excavators have seen continuous market share growth. Additionally, non-excavator hydraulic pump and valve products have expanded their sales by over 30% [2]. - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 41.85%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 27.70%, up 1.01 percentage points year-on-year. The improvement in margins is attributed to the increased market share of medium and large excavator cylinders and valves [3]. International Expansion and Product Development - The company's largest overseas production base in Mexico has commenced operations, further accelerating its internationalization process. The linear actuator project has achieved significant results in technology development and market expansion, with over 50 new products developed and successfully launched [4]. - The company has significantly expanded its customer base, adding nearly 300 new clients in the first half of 2025, and aims to enhance its position in the electric drive and hydraulic drive sectors through innovation and quality [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast has been slightly adjusted, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 projected at RMB 28.14 billion, RMB 32.28 billion, and RMB 37.79 billion, respectively. The corresponding EPS is expected to be RMB 2.10, RMB 2.41, and RMB 2.82 [5]. - The company is assigned a PE ratio of 46x for 2025, reflecting the anticipated rapid growth in downstream industry demand and the successful expansion of its linear actuator project [5].

Core Viewpoint - The actual controllers of Changling Hydraulic, Xia Jifa and Xia Zemin, are planning to transfer the company's control for the second time within six months due to poor business performance and declining profits [1][4][6]. Group 1: Control Transfer Plans - On July 3, Changling Hydraulic announced that its actual controllers are planning a significant matter that may lead to a change in control, resulting in a stock suspension starting July 4 [2][3]. - This is the second time this year that the company has planned a control transfer, with the first attempt in January ending in failure due to disagreements on core terms with the potential buyer [4][5]. - If the current control transfer is completed, it is expected that nearly 30% of the shares will be transferred, potentially allowing the controllers to cash out approximately 1.6 billion yuan based on the last trading price of 38.21 yuan per share [5]. Group 2: Business Performance - Since its listing in 2021, Changling Hydraulic has experienced a decline in both revenue and net profit, with net profit decreasing for four consecutive years from 2021 to 2024 [6][7]. - The company's revenue figures from 2021 to 2024 show slight fluctuations, with net profits dropping significantly: 2.02 billion yuan in 2021 to 0.95 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a decline of 14.56% to 6.84% year-on-year [7]. - In the first quarter of 2023, the company reported a revenue of 2.19 billion yuan and a net profit of 0.31 billion yuan, both showing year-on-year declines [7]. Group 3: Acquisition Attempts - In 2023, Changling Hydraulic attempted to diversify into the photovoltaic sector by acquiring a 70% stake in Jiangyin Shangchi Machinery for 336 million yuan, but the acquisition has not yielded significant results [8][9]. - The acquired company, Jiangyin Shangchi, had previously achieved notable revenue and profit figures, but Changling Hydraulic's performance post-acquisition has been disappointing, with the acquired entity failing to meet its profit commitments in 2024 [10]. Group 4: Financial Health - The company's accounts receivable have increased, reaching 409 million yuan by the end of the first quarter of this year, a year-on-year increase of 22.09%, while revenue has been declining [11].

Key Recommendations - Three-Dimensional Chemical (002469.SZ) benefits from accelerated coal chemical construction in Xinjiang, with a unique competitive advantage through "engineering + industry" collaboration [10][11] - Kangguan Technology (001308.SZ) shows high growth in innovative display products, with improved gross margin in Q1 2025 [12][13] Industry and Company Analysis - Three-Dimensional Chemical is a leader in sulfur recovery, leveraging proprietary technology to break foreign monopolies, with projected engineering revenue of 570 million yuan and chemical product revenue of 1.81 billion yuan in 2024 [10][11] - The company has a strong order backlog of 1.67 billion yuan, ensuring sustained revenue growth from coal chemical projects, with expected engineering revenue of 360 million, 550 million, and 760 million yuan from 2025 to 2027 [11] - The domestic market for n-propanol remains tight, with a projected supply gap of 41,000 tons in 2025, maintaining prices between 8,000-9,000 yuan/ton [11] - Kangguan Technology's Q1 2025 revenue reached 3.142 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, with a net profit of 215 million yuan, reflecting a 15.8% increase [12][13] - The company’s innovative display products saw a 50.4% revenue increase in Q1 2025, driven by strong demand in emerging markets [13][14] Macroeconomic and Strategic Insights - The high-tech manufacturing sector shows signs of recovery, with a narrowing decline in the macroeconomic diffusion index, indicating improved economic conditions [15][17] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to support growth in sectors like coal chemical engineering and innovative display technologies, with favorable government policies promoting urban renewal and infrastructure investment [26][27]