Core Viewpoint - The escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict introduces a new phase of geopolitical risk, which is expected to negatively impact Asian risk assets due to their sensitivity to rising energy prices [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - The U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities marks a significant escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict [1] - Direct U.S. involvement may prolong tensions in the region, increasing the risk of supply disruptions [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - A prolonged conflict could exacerbate inflationary pressures and drag down growth expectations across Asia [1] - The likelihood of a swift resolution to the conflict has diminished, prompting investors to reassess market risks [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - Anticipation of increased geopolitical instability and high oil prices may lead to a flight to safety, with a stronger demand for the U.S. dollar [1] - Asian risk assets are expected to weaken as a result of these market dynamics [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 from $3,300 per ounce to $3,700 per ounce, with an expected price range of $3,650 to $3,950 under the baseline scenario [1] - The core factors supporting this more optimistic outlook include stronger-than-previously assumed demand for gold from global central banks and inflows of safe-haven funds, leading to an increase in the monthly gold purchase assumption from 70 tons to 80 tons [2] - Despite the new forecast, the current monthly purchase level remains below the post-2022 average peak of 86 tons, but is significantly higher than the pre-pandemic average of 17 tons [2] Group 2 - According to GF Futures, the long-term upward trend in gold prices is supported by the ongoing de-dollarization and sustained demand for gold from global central banks and financial institutions [5] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts, alongside the need for time for U.S. fiscal stimulus policies to take effect, may increase the impact of weakening macroeconomic data on the market [5] - In the context of a weak dollar and fluctuating trade negotiations, there remains strong demand for gold positioning at relatively low prices, with potential for gold prices to challenge $3,400 (795 yuan) or higher, while also facing resistance near previous highs [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong property market is experiencing a "small spring" due to a series of stimulus policies, with renewed enthusiasm from mainland buyers for purchasing properties in Hong Kong [1] Group 1: Market Activity - In March, the Hong Kong private residential market recorded 1,097 transactions involving buyers with names in pinyin, representing a nearly 80% month-on-month increase [2] - The first quarter of this year saw a total of 2,461 transactions from pinyin buyers, down nearly 30% compared to the previous quarter's 3,562 transactions [2] - Over 30% of recent buyers in Kowloon City and North Point were from mainland China, primarily purchasing low-priced properties benefiting from new policies [2] Group 2: Policy Impact - The Hong Kong government raised the stamp duty exemption limit for properties valued below HKD 400,000 from HKD 300,000, expected to benefit about 15% of property transactions [2] - The first quarter of 2025 saw 901 transactions for properties below HKD 400,000, a 137.7% increase quarter-on-quarter, marking the highest quarterly record since the implementation of the new sales regulations in 2013 [3] - In March, transactions for properties below HKD 400,000 reached 442, accounting for nearly 50% of the total for the quarter [3] Group 3: Market Trends - The luxury property market in Hong Kong is witnessing increased activity, with reports of high-profile buyers taking advantage of price corrections from peak levels [5][6] - The overall property market is thriving due to low prices, reduced transaction taxes, and high rental yields [7] - The influx of mainland clients is linked to Hong Kong's talent introduction programs, which are expected to continue driving demand in the long term [7]