周五亚洲盘面，黄金依旧守在 4080 美元附近，整体波动幅度有限。市场节奏仍围绕美联储 12 月会议展 开，而隔夜发布的美国就业数据显著超过预期，使原本快速聚集的降息预期明显回落。美元因此获得支 撑，黄金的反弹势头再次受阻。 最新公布的 9 月非农录得增加 11.9 万人，远超市场先前预估的 5 万人；与此同时，8 月就业数据被下修 为减少 4000 人，失业率也从 4.3% 升至 4.4%。由于政府停摆造成的延后统计，使得这份报告在发布时 间上更具突发性，投资者也因此重新审视美国劳动力市场的韧性与后续政策空间。 尽管利率预期重新转向令黄金承压，但下方的支撑力量依然稳固。避险资金在全球宏观风险未完全消散 的背景下持续流入，同时央行增持步伐并未放慢。数据显示，中国人民银行 9 月增持黄金 1.2 吨，并在 10 月实现连续第 12 个月增储。随着美国 PMI 初值及消费者信心指数将在晚间公布，市场情绪可能再 度切换，金价短线节奏将继续受数据牵引。 黄金目前在 4080—4100 区间内反复整理。更强劲的就业数据压缩了市场降息预期，而美联储内部持续 存在的分歧也限制了金价上行空间。不过，避险资金与央行持续增持为下 ...

值得注意的是，受贸易摩擦影响，欧元继续下跌，而日元则维持住了横盘，侧面印证了避险资金的流 入。 但日本由于受公明党退出联合政府导致日本接下来的首相选举出现变数会影响日元走势，原本定于10月 15日召开的临时国会被迫推迟至10月21日。 从当前格局看，本周美元兑日元或维持震荡区间运行，但如果出现不利于高市早苗竞选首相的消息，或 者向不利于高市早苗竞选的方向发展，汇价可能重新向利于日元的方向发展。 周三（10月15日）亚洲时段，美元/日元延续跌势，跌破151.50。随着中美贸易紧张局势升级，美元进 一步走弱，抵消了风险情绪的复苏。所有目光仍集中在美联储的言论和日本政治上，以寻找新的交易激 励。 周末短暂平静后，全球市场再度进入紧张状态。从外汇市场表现来看，这一动态推动避险需求上升，日 本日元与瑞郎获得的避险资金流入多于美元，不过美元相对其他多数货币仍维持强势。 在此背景下，此前市场对美元兑日元的看涨预期不得不搁置，交易者在当前不确定性环境中，更倾向于 依托日元的防御属性进行布局。 能否达成相关协议(或延长关税休战期限)，目前仍有待观察，相关风险正持续上升。 不过，若要推动美元兑日元汇率出现大幅下行，还需日本政治局 ...

国际金价延续强劲涨势，再度刷新历史纪录。 此外，市场高度关注将于本周五（9月5日）发布的美国8月非农就业报告，该数据被视为9月FOMC议息会议前最重要的就业指标。若数据表现不及预期， 市场对美联储本月降息的预期可能进一步升温。目前期货市场定价反映，投资者预计9月降息25个基点的概率约为90%。利率下行通常有利于黄金，因低 利率环境降低持有无息黄金的机会成本。 多家国际金融机构继续看好金价后市表现。瑞银将2026年上半年金价目标上调至3700美元/盎司；美国银行分析师则认为，国际金价有望在该时期触及 4000美元/盎司。 【免责声明】以上内容由百利好提供，仅供参考，不构成任何操作建议。据此操作，风险自担。 同日，A股黄金板块集体走强。西部黄金强势涨停，报26.51元/股，市值达242亿元，已连续三个交易日涨停；招金黄金、中金黄金、赤峰黄金及山东黄金 等个股也均有不同幅度上涨。 此前一日（9月2日），伦敦现货黄金在亚洲交易时段突破3500美元/盎司，最高触及3508.49美元/盎司，同样创出历史新高，并录得连续六个交易日上涨， 打破此前长达四个月的横盘格局。 市场分析认为，近期美联储高层人事变动引发部分投资者对其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a holding of 954.8 tons of gold as of July 23, 2025, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. The gold price experienced a significant drop after reaching a high, influenced by easing trade uncertainties between the US and Japan, which has affected market sentiment and gold prices [6]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of July 23, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust holds 954.8 tons of gold, unchanged from the previous day [6]. - The report indicates that the gold ETF holdings have remained stable despite fluctuations in gold prices [6]. Group 2: Market Influences - On July 23, spot gold prices peaked before falling sharply, closing at $3,387.22 per ounce, down $44.44 or 1.30% [6]. - The easing of tariff uncertainties, particularly following the US-Japan trade agreement, has alleviated market concerns, leading to a rise in global stock markets and a subsequent decline in gold prices [6]. - The US-Japan trade agreement set the tariff rate at 15%, lower than the previously feared 25%, which has positively impacted market sentiment [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Price Projections - Analysts suggest that gold may continue to trend upwards, with $3,350 per ounce acting as a support level [7]. - The technical analysis indicates that gold prices have broken through the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the record rebound from April, suggesting a potential upward trajectory [7]. - Immediate resistance levels for gold are identified at $3,400, with further resistance at $3,420 and the June 16 high of $3,452, while downside support is seen at $3,377 and $3,340 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict introduces a new phase of geopolitical risk, which is expected to negatively impact Asian risk assets due to their sensitivity to rising energy prices [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - The U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities marks a significant escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict [1] - Direct U.S. involvement may prolong tensions in the region, increasing the risk of supply disruptions [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - A prolonged conflict could exacerbate inflationary pressures and drag down growth expectations across Asia [1] - The likelihood of a swift resolution to the conflict has diminished, prompting investors to reassess market risks [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - Anticipation of increased geopolitical instability and high oil prices may lead to a flight to safety, with a stronger demand for the U.S. dollar [1] - Asian risk assets are expected to weaken as a result of these market dynamics [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 from $3,300 per ounce to $3,700 per ounce, with an expected price range of $3,650 to $3,950 under the baseline scenario [1] - The core factors supporting this more optimistic outlook include stronger-than-previously assumed demand for gold from global central banks and inflows of safe-haven funds, leading to an increase in the monthly gold purchase assumption from 70 tons to 80 tons [2] - Despite the new forecast, the current monthly purchase level remains below the post-2022 average peak of 86 tons, but is significantly higher than the pre-pandemic average of 17 tons [2] Group 2 - According to GF Futures, the long-term upward trend in gold prices is supported by the ongoing de-dollarization and sustained demand for gold from global central banks and financial institutions [5] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts, alongside the need for time for U.S. fiscal stimulus policies to take effect, may increase the impact of weakening macroeconomic data on the market [5] - In the context of a weak dollar and fluctuating trade negotiations, there remains strong demand for gold positioning at relatively low prices, with potential for gold prices to challenge $3,400 (795 yuan) or higher, while also facing resistance near previous highs [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong property market is experiencing a "small spring" due to a series of stimulus policies, with renewed enthusiasm from mainland buyers for purchasing properties in Hong Kong [1] Group 1: Market Activity - In March, the Hong Kong private residential market recorded 1,097 transactions involving buyers with names in pinyin, representing a nearly 80% month-on-month increase [2] - The first quarter of this year saw a total of 2,461 transactions from pinyin buyers, down nearly 30% compared to the previous quarter's 3,562 transactions [2] - Over 30% of recent buyers in Kowloon City and North Point were from mainland China, primarily purchasing low-priced properties benefiting from new policies [2] Group 2: Policy Impact - The Hong Kong government raised the stamp duty exemption limit for properties valued below HKD 400,000 from HKD 300,000, expected to benefit about 15% of property transactions [2] - The first quarter of 2025 saw 901 transactions for properties below HKD 400,000, a 137.7% increase quarter-on-quarter, marking the highest quarterly record since the implementation of the new sales regulations in 2013 [3] - In March, transactions for properties below HKD 400,000 reached 442, accounting for nearly 50% of the total for the quarter [3] Group 3: Market Trends - The luxury property market in Hong Kong is witnessing increased activity, with reports of high-profile buyers taking advantage of price corrections from peak levels [5][6] - The overall property market is thriving due to low prices, reduced transaction taxes, and high rental yields [7] - The influx of mainland clients is linked to Hong Kong's talent introduction programs, which are expected to continue driving demand in the long term [7]