国际金价延续强劲涨势，再度刷新历史纪录。 此外，市场高度关注将于本周五（9月5日）发布的美国8月非农就业报告，该数据被视为9月FOMC议息会议前最重要的就业指标。若数据表现不及预期， 市场对美联储本月降息的预期可能进一步升温。目前期货市场定价反映，投资者预计9月降息25个基点的概率约为90%。利率下行通常有利于黄金，因低 利率环境降低持有无息黄金的机会成本。 多家国际金融机构继续看好金价后市表现。瑞银将2026年上半年金价目标上调至3700美元/盎司；美国银行分析师则认为，国际金价有望在该时期触及 4000美元/盎司。 【免责声明】以上内容由百利好提供，仅供参考，不构成任何操作建议。据此操作，风险自担。 同日，A股黄金板块集体走强。西部黄金强势涨停，报26.51元/股，市值达242亿元，已连续三个交易日涨停；招金黄金、中金黄金、赤峰黄金及山东黄金 等个股也均有不同幅度上涨。 此前一日（9月2日），伦敦现货黄金在亚洲交易时段突破3500美元/盎司，最高触及3508.49美元/盎司，同样创出历史新高，并录得连续六个交易日上涨， 打破此前长达四个月的横盘格局。 市场分析认为，近期美联储高层人事变动引发部分投资者对其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a holding of 954.8 tons of gold as of July 23, 2025, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. The gold price experienced a significant drop after reaching a high, influenced by easing trade uncertainties between the US and Japan, which has affected market sentiment and gold prices [6]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of July 23, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust holds 954.8 tons of gold, unchanged from the previous day [6]. - The report indicates that the gold ETF holdings have remained stable despite fluctuations in gold prices [6]. Group 2: Market Influences - On July 23, spot gold prices peaked before falling sharply, closing at $3,387.22 per ounce, down $44.44 or 1.30% [6]. - The easing of tariff uncertainties, particularly following the US-Japan trade agreement, has alleviated market concerns, leading to a rise in global stock markets and a subsequent decline in gold prices [6]. - The US-Japan trade agreement set the tariff rate at 15%, lower than the previously feared 25%, which has positively impacted market sentiment [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Price Projections - Analysts suggest that gold may continue to trend upwards, with $3,350 per ounce acting as a support level [7]. - The technical analysis indicates that gold prices have broken through the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the record rebound from April, suggesting a potential upward trajectory [7]. - Immediate resistance levels for gold are identified at $3,400, with further resistance at $3,420 and the June 16 high of $3,452, while downside support is seen at $3,377 and $3,340 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict introduces a new phase of geopolitical risk, which is expected to negatively impact Asian risk assets due to their sensitivity to rising energy prices [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - The U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities marks a significant escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict [1] - Direct U.S. involvement may prolong tensions in the region, increasing the risk of supply disruptions [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - A prolonged conflict could exacerbate inflationary pressures and drag down growth expectations across Asia [1] - The likelihood of a swift resolution to the conflict has diminished, prompting investors to reassess market risks [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - Anticipation of increased geopolitical instability and high oil prices may lead to a flight to safety, with a stronger demand for the U.S. dollar [1] - Asian risk assets are expected to weaken as a result of these market dynamics [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 from $3,300 per ounce to $3,700 per ounce, with an expected price range of $3,650 to $3,950 under the baseline scenario [1] - The core factors supporting this more optimistic outlook include stronger-than-previously assumed demand for gold from global central banks and inflows of safe-haven funds, leading to an increase in the monthly gold purchase assumption from 70 tons to 80 tons [2] - Despite the new forecast, the current monthly purchase level remains below the post-2022 average peak of 86 tons, but is significantly higher than the pre-pandemic average of 17 tons [2] Group 2 - According to GF Futures, the long-term upward trend in gold prices is supported by the ongoing de-dollarization and sustained demand for gold from global central banks and financial institutions [5] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts, alongside the need for time for U.S. fiscal stimulus policies to take effect, may increase the impact of weakening macroeconomic data on the market [5] - In the context of a weak dollar and fluctuating trade negotiations, there remains strong demand for gold positioning at relatively low prices, with potential for gold prices to challenge $3,400 (795 yuan) or higher, while also facing resistance near previous highs [5]