摘要今日周日，市场休市。周五(12月26日)国际黄金站上4540美元/盎司，创历史新高，尾盘最终报收 4533.34美元/盎司，涨幅1.19%，周线上涨4.49%。多重利好形成共振，为黄金2026年的持续走强筑牢根 基。 今日周日，市场休市。周五(12月26日)国际黄金站上4540美元/盎司，创历史新高，尾盘最终报收 4533.34美元/盎司，涨幅1.19%，周线上涨4.49%。多重利好形成共振，为黄金2026年的持续走强筑牢根 基。 【要闻速递】 2025年，黄金成为全球主要资产中表现最突出的品种之一，年内累计涨幅高达70%以上。而标普500指 数仅上涨约17%。 2025年，贵金属市场可谓占尽天时地利，但这也引出一个关键问题：其强劲的上涨趋势是否仍有足够动 力延续。今年以来，黄金屡创历史新高，主要驱动力来自避险资金流入，以及市场对美联储可能以激进 节奏重启降息的预期不断升温。 过去三个多月，黄金价格始终依托多头趋势线运行，依托这一趋势接连创下新高，成功站上4500美元/ 盎司关口。截至目前，市场尚未出现能从结构上扭转这一多头趋势的实质性空头行情，这条趋势线也成 为短期金价走势的核心技术参考。但值得注意的是 ...

今日周六，白银市场休市。本周白银的主趋势仍为上行，价格整体盘升，周三白银强势上攻，继续破 高，日线RSI位于超买区附近，4小时守住65关口支撑，短线走势仍强劲，周四上涨趋势减弱，价格回 落，但仍在支撑位上方。 【要闻速递】 据Politico报道，特朗普政府近期在委内瑞拉海岸封锁油轮的举动，是其对委总统马杜罗"渐进式施压"战 略的最新体现。该战略旨在通过持续孤立和挤压而非立即发动大规模国内行动，最终实现使马杜罗下台 的目标。 【最新现货白银行情解析】 白银若向66.90美元的历史高点发起冲击，能成功突破该阻力位，将标志着上涨趋势加速重启，下一目 标位可看向68.30美元(10月-11月涨势的261.8%斐波那契扩展位)；若短期未能突破66.90美元，可能出现 小幅回调，但下方支撑同样强劲，64.32美元的关键支撑位(100小时移动平均线)将为多头提供有效缓 冲。 上行突破：若买盘持续发力，推动白银突破66.90美元的历史高点，将打开新的上涨空间，短期目标位 可看向68.30美元(斐波那契扩展位)，甚至冲击70.00美元整数关口。 短期回调：若在66.90美元阻力位附近遇阻，可能出现小幅回调，但回调支撑位上移至 ...

数据显示，部分战机曾飞至距委内瑞拉海岸约200公里空域，个别航迹一度接近委首都加拉加斯，最近 距离不足100公里。相关飞机于18日19时左右逐步远离委内瑞拉沿岸。 正值美委关系紧张升级之际。美国总统特朗普近日多次表示，美国可能"很快"采取行动，通过陆路打击 委内瑞拉"毒贩"。 今日周五(12月19日)欧盘时段，纸白银目前交投于14.847一线上方，今日开盘于14.811元/克，截至发 稿，纸白银暂报14.887元/克，上涨0.57%，最高触及14.974元/克，最低下探14.602元/克，目前来看，纸 白银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 美国与委内瑞拉紧张局势的升级可能会推动避险资金流入，支持白银的需求。根据《纽约时报》的报 导，委内瑞拉政府已命令其海军护送从港口运送石油产品的船只。这一举动可能会加剧与美国的对抗风 险，此前特朗普下令对该国的石油产业实施"封锁"。 同日，至少5架美国海军F-18战斗机在加勒比海空域飞行，部分航迹一度接近委内瑞拉首都加拉加斯。 另有两架美军军用飞机同时出现在该地区。 【最新纸白银行情解析】 日图来看，纸白银早盘价格延续上一日跌势，行情高位下跌，目前反弹上涨，价格重回正值区 ...

周五亚洲盘面，黄金依旧守在 4080 美元附近，整体波动幅度有限。市场节奏仍围绕美联储 12 月会议展 开，而隔夜发布的美国就业数据显著超过预期，使原本快速聚集的降息预期明显回落。美元因此获得支 撑，黄金的反弹势头再次受阻。 最新公布的 9 月非农录得增加 11.9 万人，远超市场先前预估的 5 万人；与此同时，8 月就业数据被下修 为减少 4000 人，失业率也从 4.3% 升至 4.4%。由于政府停摆造成的延后统计，使得这份报告在发布时 间上更具突发性，投资者也因此重新审视美国劳动力市场的韧性与后续政策空间。 尽管利率预期重新转向令黄金承压，但下方的支撑力量依然稳固。避险资金在全球宏观风险未完全消散 的背景下持续流入，同时央行增持步伐并未放慢。数据显示，中国人民银行 9 月增持黄金 1.2 吨，并在 10 月实现连续第 12 个月增储。随着美国 PMI 初值及消费者信心指数将在晚间公布，市场情绪可能再 度切换，金价短线节奏将继续受数据牵引。 黄金目前在 4080—4100 区间内反复整理。更强劲的就业数据压缩了市场降息预期，而美联储内部持续 存在的分歧也限制了金价上行空间。不过，避险资金与央行持续增持为下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing downward pressure due to escalating US-China trade tensions, leading to a stronger demand for safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The USD has weakened further, offsetting the recovery in risk sentiment, with all eyes on the Federal Reserve's statements and Japanese political developments for new trading incentives [1]. - Following a brief period of calm, global markets have re-entered a state of tension, with increased safe-haven demand reflected in the performance of the yen and franc compared to the USD [1]. - The outlook for the USD/JPY exchange rate has shifted from bullish to cautious, as traders prefer the defensive attributes of the yen amid current uncertainties [1]. Group 2: Political and Economic Factors - The potential for reaching agreements or extending tariff truce remains uncertain, with rising associated risks [1]. - The political instability in Japan, particularly due to the Komeito party's exit from the coalition government, is expected to impact the yen's performance, with the temporary National Assembly session postponed from October 15 to October 21 [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY exchange rate faces short-term downside risks, with key support levels identified at 151.40 and 151.15 [3]. - Additional technical support is noted at the 200-hour moving average of 151.27 and the psychological level of 151.00, while any rebound attempts may encounter significant resistance [3].

国际金价延续强劲涨势，再度刷新历史纪录。 此外，市场高度关注将于本周五（9月5日）发布的美国8月非农就业报告，该数据被视为9月FOMC议息会议前最重要的就业指标。若数据表现不及预期， 市场对美联储本月降息的预期可能进一步升温。目前期货市场定价反映，投资者预计9月降息25个基点的概率约为90%。利率下行通常有利于黄金，因低 利率环境降低持有无息黄金的机会成本。 多家国际金融机构继续看好金价后市表现。瑞银将2026年上半年金价目标上调至3700美元/盎司；美国银行分析师则认为，国际金价有望在该时期触及 4000美元/盎司。 【免责声明】以上内容由百利好提供，仅供参考，不构成任何操作建议。据此操作，风险自担。 同日，A股黄金板块集体走强。西部黄金强势涨停，报26.51元/股，市值达242亿元，已连续三个交易日涨停；招金黄金、中金黄金、赤峰黄金及山东黄金 等个股也均有不同幅度上涨。 此前一日（9月2日），伦敦现货黄金在亚洲交易时段突破3500美元/盎司，最高触及3508.49美元/盎司，同样创出历史新高，并录得连续六个交易日上涨， 打破此前长达四个月的横盘格局。 市场分析认为，近期美联储高层人事变动引发部分投资者对其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a holding of 954.8 tons of gold as of July 23, 2025, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. The gold price experienced a significant drop after reaching a high, influenced by easing trade uncertainties between the US and Japan, which has affected market sentiment and gold prices [6]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of July 23, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust holds 954.8 tons of gold, unchanged from the previous day [6]. - The report indicates that the gold ETF holdings have remained stable despite fluctuations in gold prices [6]. Group 2: Market Influences - On July 23, spot gold prices peaked before falling sharply, closing at $3,387.22 per ounce, down $44.44 or 1.30% [6]. - The easing of tariff uncertainties, particularly following the US-Japan trade agreement, has alleviated market concerns, leading to a rise in global stock markets and a subsequent decline in gold prices [6]. - The US-Japan trade agreement set the tariff rate at 15%, lower than the previously feared 25%, which has positively impacted market sentiment [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Price Projections - Analysts suggest that gold may continue to trend upwards, with $3,350 per ounce acting as a support level [7]. - The technical analysis indicates that gold prices have broken through the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the record rebound from April, suggesting a potential upward trajectory [7]. - Immediate resistance levels for gold are identified at $3,400, with further resistance at $3,420 and the June 16 high of $3,452, while downside support is seen at $3,377 and $3,340 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict introduces a new phase of geopolitical risk, which is expected to negatively impact Asian risk assets due to their sensitivity to rising energy prices [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - The U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities marks a significant escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict [1] - Direct U.S. involvement may prolong tensions in the region, increasing the risk of supply disruptions [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - A prolonged conflict could exacerbate inflationary pressures and drag down growth expectations across Asia [1] - The likelihood of a swift resolution to the conflict has diminished, prompting investors to reassess market risks [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - Anticipation of increased geopolitical instability and high oil prices may lead to a flight to safety, with a stronger demand for the U.S. dollar [1] - Asian risk assets are expected to weaken as a result of these market dynamics [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 from $3,300 per ounce to $3,700 per ounce, with an expected price range of $3,650 to $3,950 under the baseline scenario [1] - The core factors supporting this more optimistic outlook include stronger-than-previously assumed demand for gold from global central banks and inflows of safe-haven funds, leading to an increase in the monthly gold purchase assumption from 70 tons to 80 tons [2] - Despite the new forecast, the current monthly purchase level remains below the post-2022 average peak of 86 tons, but is significantly higher than the pre-pandemic average of 17 tons [2] Group 2 - According to GF Futures, the long-term upward trend in gold prices is supported by the ongoing de-dollarization and sustained demand for gold from global central banks and financial institutions [5] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts, alongside the need for time for U.S. fiscal stimulus policies to take effect, may increase the impact of weakening macroeconomic data on the market [5] - In the context of a weak dollar and fluctuating trade negotiations, there remains strong demand for gold positioning at relatively low prices, with potential for gold prices to challenge $3,400 (795 yuan) or higher, while also facing resistance near previous highs [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong property market is experiencing a "small spring" due to a series of stimulus policies, with renewed enthusiasm from mainland buyers for purchasing properties in Hong Kong [1] Group 1: Market Activity - In March, the Hong Kong private residential market recorded 1,097 transactions involving buyers with names in pinyin, representing a nearly 80% month-on-month increase [2] - The first quarter of this year saw a total of 2,461 transactions from pinyin buyers, down nearly 30% compared to the previous quarter's 3,562 transactions [2] - Over 30% of recent buyers in Kowloon City and North Point were from mainland China, primarily purchasing low-priced properties benefiting from new policies [2] Group 2: Policy Impact - The Hong Kong government raised the stamp duty exemption limit for properties valued below HKD 400,000 from HKD 300,000, expected to benefit about 15% of property transactions [2] - The first quarter of 2025 saw 901 transactions for properties below HKD 400,000, a 137.7% increase quarter-on-quarter, marking the highest quarterly record since the implementation of the new sales regulations in 2013 [3] - In March, transactions for properties below HKD 400,000 reached 442, accounting for nearly 50% of the total for the quarter [3] Group 3: Market Trends - The luxury property market in Hong Kong is witnessing increased activity, with reports of high-profile buyers taking advantage of price corrections from peak levels [5][6] - The overall property market is thriving due to low prices, reduced transaction taxes, and high rental yields [7] - The influx of mainland clients is linked to Hong Kong's talent introduction programs, which are expected to continue driving demand in the long term [7]