1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [3] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [3] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: The consumption peak season is ending, supply surplus pressure is rising, and the oil price trend is downward. Short - term geopolitical risks are still uncertain, and there is disturbance support for oil prices [1]. - LPG: Valuation is repaired, the cost side is weakening, and it is under short - term pressure [1]. - L: Futures and spot prices are both falling, the basis is weakening. The seasonal peak season in September is approaching, and there is an expectation of fundamental improvement [1]. - PP: Futures and spot prices are both falling, the basis is weakening. The supply is under pressure in the future, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is loose [1]. - PVC: Demand is insufficient, social inventory has been accumulating for 10 consecutive weeks, and the market is in a bearish continuation [1]. - PX: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, inventory is still high, but it is expected to be bullish in the short term due to various factors [1]. - PTA: Recent device maintenance has increased, the supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the demand side shows signs of recovery [2]. - Ethylene glycol: Domestic devices have slightly increased their load, overseas devices have little change, and inventory is low, so it is expected to be bullish [2]. - Methanol: Supply - side pressure continues to increase, demand is weak but expected to stabilize, and the fundamentals are still weak [2]. - Urea: The device maintenance is expected to increase this week, domestic supply is expected to be loose, but exports are good, and it is cautiously bullish [2]. - Asphalt: Oil prices still have room to compress, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and the valuation is high [3]. - Glass: Warehouse receipts are increasing, deep - processing orders are improving slightly, and supply is under pressure while demand is insufficient [3]. - Soda ash: Spot prices in Shahe are rising, enterprise inventory is decreasing from a high level, and it is in a low - level oscillation [3] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 0.70%, Brent rising 0.80%, and SC falling 1.09% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical risks are released, the peak season is ending, OPEC+ is increasing production, and the demand support for oil prices is gradually weakening [6]. - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: The Trans - Mountain Pipeline has been in use since May 2024, with a daily transportation volume of 730,000 barrels in the first half of the year. India's crude oil imports decreased. US commercial crude inventory decreased by 2.4 million barrels, strategic crude reserve increased by 800,000 barrels [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Light - position short - selling. Focus on the $60 new - drilling cost support for SC in the range of [480 - 490] [8]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 28, the PG main contract closed at 4,422 yuan/ton, down 0.18% [11]. - **Basic Logic**: Recently, the LPG valuation has been repaired, the main contract basis is normal, and the PDH device operating rate has decreased [12]. - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: As of August 29, the LPG commodity volume increased, PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil operating rates changed, and refinery inventory increased while port inventory decreased [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Light - position short - selling. Focus on the range of [4300 - 4400] for PG [13]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,402 yuan/ton (down 21 day - on - day), and the North China Ning coal price was 7,230 yuan/ton (down 40 day - on - day) [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Futures and spot prices are both falling, the basis is weakening. The peak season in September is approaching, this week's output has decreased, and next week's output is expected to increase by 40,000 tons [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips as the peak season is approaching. Focus on the range of [7300 - 7450] for L [17]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closed at 7,020 yuan/ton (down 1 day - on - day), and the East China drawn wire market price was 6,961 yuan/ton (down 33 day - on - day) [21]. - **Basic Logic**: Futures and spot prices are both falling, the basis is weakening. The supply is under pressure in the future, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is loose [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on short - term dips due to the low absolute price. Focus on the range of [6950 - 7100] for PP [22]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 closed at 4,946 yuan/ton (down 3 day - on - day), and the Changzhou spot price was 4,700 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day) [25]. - **Basic Logic**: Demand is insufficient, social inventory has been accumulating for 10 consecutive weeks, this week's operation is expected to decline, and next week's production is expected to increase [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about short - selling as the market is in a short - term weak oscillation and the further decline space is limited. Focus on the range of [4850 - 5000] for V [26]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 22, the PX spot price was 7,014 yuan/ton (+125), and the PX11 contract closed at 6,966 yuan/ton (+8) [29]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices at home and abroad have slightly increased their load, demand - side PTA device maintenance has increased, and the supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions carefully, pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks, and sell put options. Focus on the range of [6770 - 6920] for PX511 [31]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 22, the PTA East China price was 4,865 yuan/ton (+35), and the TA01 closed at 4,868 yuan/ton (+8) [33]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance has increased recently, the supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the demand side shows signs of recovery [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions carefully, pay attention to buying opportunities on TA pullbacks. Focus on the range of [4750 - 4820] for TA01 [35]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 22, the East China ethylene glycol spot price was 4,512 yuan/ton (-6), and the EG01 closed at 4,474 yuan/ton (+1) [37]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have slightly increased their load, overseas devices have little change, and inventory is low, while demand is recovering [38]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [4450 - 4500] for EG01 [39]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 22, the East China methanol spot price was 2,320 yuan/ton (-12), and the main 01 contract closed at 2,405 yuan/ton (-20) [40]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas device loads are increasing, supply is under pressure, demand is weak, and social inventory is accumulating [41]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions from high levels carefully, sell 01 call options, and pay attention to buying opportunities for 01 on dips. Focus on the range of [2365 - 2395] for MA01 [42]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 22, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,740 yuan/ton (-20), and the main contract closed at 1,739 yuan/ton (-25) [44]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance is expected to increase this week, domestic supply is expected to be loose, but exports are good [45]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold 01 long positions carefully, and conduct range operations due to the short - term intensified long - short game. Focus on the range of [1735 - 1765] for UR01 [46]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not mentioned in the text. - **Basic Logic**: Oil prices still have room to compress, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and the valuation is high [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Light - position short - selling [3]. Glass - **Market Review**: Not mentioned in the text. - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts are increasing, deep - processing orders are improving slightly, and supply is under pressure while demand is insufficient [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see due to the low absolute price and intense capital game [3]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Not mentioned in the text. - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices in Shahe are rising, enterprise inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the supply is still under pressure [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see as it is in a low - level oscillation [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton are considered neutral, with the 2025/26 annual output and consumption data from different institutions showing a complex situation. The basis is positive as the spot price has a premium over the futures price. The inventory situation is negative according to the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's forecast. The market is short - term bullish with the expectation of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and the probability of the cotton price rising further is relatively high after the price stands above 14,000 [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the cotton market. Positive factors include the reduction of previous China - US mutual tariffs and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory, as well as an enhanced expectation for the peak consumption season. Negative factors include the postponement of trade negotiations, relatively high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided in the content. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: According to the ICAC August report, the 2025/26 annual output is 25.9 million tons and consumption is 25.6 million tons. The USDA August report shows an output of 25.392 million tons, consumption of 25.688 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.093 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China's cotton imports in July were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. The Ministry of Agriculture's 2025/26 annual forecast shows an output of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,336 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1,266 yuan, with the spot having a premium over the futures [4]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's August 2025/26 annual forecast shows an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4]. - **Expectation**: The main 01 contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures rose sharply during the night session, reaching a short - term high. With the expectation of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the market's optimistic sentiment temporarily prevails. After the price stands above 14,000, the probability of further increase is relatively high. The short - term trading strategy is to be bullish on oscillations [4]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the content. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In August, the total global output is 25.392 million tons, a decrease of 391,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. The total global consumption is 25.688 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The total global ending inventory is 16.093 million tons, a decrease of 747,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [11][12]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 annual, the global output is 25.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 400,000 tons (1.6%); consumption is 25.6 million tons, basically unchanged year - on - year; the ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 260,000 tons (1.6%); the global trade volume is 9.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 360,000 tons (3.9%); the price forecast of the Cotlook A Index is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [13]. - **Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's Forecast**: In the 2025/26 annual, the output is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons. The average domestic price of 3128B cotton is expected to be in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A Index is expected to be in the range of 75 - 100 cents per pound [15]. 5. Position Data No information provided in the content.

Core Insights - The China Rare Metals Theme Index has shown a strong increase of 1.33%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as China Rare Earths (up 8.30%) and Kinglong Magnetics (up 6.44%) [1] - The Rare Metals ETF (562800) has risen by 1.65%, reaching a peak increase of over 3% during the trading session [1] Trading Activity - The Rare Metals ETF experienced a turnover of 2.3% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 43.99 million yuan [4] - Over the past week, the ETF has averaged daily transactions of 166 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [4] - The latest scale of the Rare Metals ETF has reached 1.884 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception and also ranking first among comparable funds [4] - The ETF's share count has reached 2.580 billion shares, also a new high since inception, maintaining its top position among comparable funds [4] - In terms of net fund inflow, the ETF has seen continuous inflows over the past five days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 83.85 million yuan, totaling 235 million yuan [4] Performance Metrics - As of August 27, 2025, the Rare Metals ETF has achieved a net value increase of 84.56% over the past year, ranking 427 out of 2985 in the index stock fund category, placing it in the top 14.30% [4] - The ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 24.02% since inception, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being three months and the highest cumulative increase being 29.68% [4] - The average return during the months of increase is 8.13% [4] - Over the past three months, the ETF has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized excess return of 13.23% [4] Market Trends - The upcoming consumption peak in September and October is expected to boost downstream demand, leading to a significant recovery in market activity [5] - Prices for rare earths and cobalt have been steadily increasing, with disruptions in lithium supply in Jiangxi causing a substantial rise in prices [5] - The cobalt price is anticipated to receive strong support towards the end of Q3 and the beginning of Q4 due to low raw material inventory levels [6] - The lithium market is expected to face shortages due to upstream mine production cuts, with prices likely to rise amid strong downstream demand expectations [6] Key Stocks - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Metals Theme Index account for 55.85% of the index, including Northern Rare Earth, Salt Lake Co., and others [5] - Notable stock performances include Salt Lake Co. (up 0.72%), Northern Rare Earth (up 2.41%), and Western Superconducting (up 5.79%) [8]