News Summary - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the increase in iron ore inventory in major ports of Australia and Brazil, along with changes in shipping volumes and market sentiment affecting iron ore prices [1][3]. Group 1: Inventory and Shipping Data - As of January 5-11, 2026, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil reached 12.552 million tons, an increase of 969,000 tons from the previous period [1]. - In the second week of January 2026, Brazil's iron ore stock was 10.461 million tons, down from 30.8902 million tons in January of the previous year, with an average daily shipment of 1.7435 million tons, reflecting a 24.17% increase compared to January of last year [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Price Trends - Market sentiment and funding are driving significant price increases in the black commodities sector, although a correction is expected as macroeconomic sentiments fade [3]. - The first quarter is entering a seasonally sensitive weather period in major production areas of Australia and Brazil, which may lead to temporary reductions in shipments [3]. - Current iron and steel production is showing signs of recovery, with expectations of steel mill restarts in January and increasing demand for inventory replenishment, providing short-term support for iron ore prices [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The commissioning of the West Simandou project is expected to further ease supply expectations [4]. - On the demand side, while exports remain somewhat stable, domestic demand in real estate and infrastructure is still seeking a bottom, indicating weak support for internal demand [4]. - Technically, after breaking through previous levels, a pullback is anticipated, but the low-buy strategy remains unchanged for the time being [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 1 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 商品情绪偏暖，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局持续走弱，港存高位累库，钢厂虽有所复产，矿石终端消耗低位回升，但盈利状 ...

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoint - No clear core viewpoint is presented in the given content; it mainly provides price data of various iron ore varieties and futures contracts. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Market - **Australian mainstream ores**: Newman powder is priced at 798, down 7 from the previous day and up 4 for the week, with a discounted futures price of 854.2; PB powder is at 806, down 2 and up 9; Mac powder is at 808, down 2 and up 13; Jinbuba powder is at 759, down 2 and up 9; Mixed powder is at 742, up 2 and up 2; Super special powder is at 684, up 4 and up 9; Carajás powder is at 895, up 10 and up 20 [1]. - **Brazilian mainstream ores**: Brazilian mixed ore is at 852, down 6 and up 19; Brazilian coarse IOC6 is at 770, down 2 and up 9; Brazilian coarse SSFG is at 775, down 2 and up 9 [1]. - **Other ores**: Ukrainian concentrate powder is at 884, up 6 and up 11; 61% Indian powder is at 748, down 2 and up 9; Karara concentrate powder is at 885, up 3 and up 7; Roy Hill powder is at 793, down 2 and up 9; KUMBA powder is at 865, down 2 and up 9; 57% Indian powder is at 619, up 4 and up 9; Atlas powder is at 737, up 2 and up 2; Tangshan iron concentrate powder is at 976, down 6 and down 6 [1]. Futures Market - **DCE contracts**: i2601 is at 814.5, up 9.5 from the previous day and up 13 for the week, with a monthly spread of -39.5; i2605 is at 797.0, up 7.5 and up 14, with a spread of 17.5; i2609 is at 775.0, up 6.5 and up 14, with a spread of 22.0 [1]. - **SGX contracts**: FE01 is at 105.55, up 0.20 and up 0.88, with a spread of -3.24; FE05 is at 104.26, up 0.24 and up 1.24, with a spread of 1.29; FE09 is at 102.31, up 0.26 and up 1.29, with a spread of 1.95 [1]. Other Data - **Import profit**: Newman powder's import profit is 14.42; Mac powder's is 49.11; Jinbuba powder's is 44.36; Mixed powder's is 5.63; Super special powder's is 1.34; Carajás powder's is -14.77; Brazilian mixed ore's is 14.89; Roy Hill powder's is 56.49 [1]. - **Premium data**: Information about U - ball/pellet premium and PB block/lump ore premium is presented in the form of charts, but specific numerical data is incomplete [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to trade in a high - level range, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, while the intraday trend is slightly weak. The core logic is that bullish factors remain, keeping the ore price at a high level [1]. - The iron ore supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. Port inventories are rising to high levels, steel mill production is stabilizing, and terminal ore consumption is at a low level. Although the profit situation of steel mills has limited improvement, the pre - holiday restocking expectation is relatively positive. Overall, the iron ore price is running strongly at a high level due to spot structural contradictions and pre - holiday restocking expectations, but the demand is weakening and supply remains high, so the upward driving force is not strong, and the follow - up trend is cautiously optimistic, with attention paid to steel mill restocking [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term trend is oscillatory, the medium - term trend is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is slightly weak, with an overall view of high - level oscillation. The core logic is that bullish factors remain and the ore price is at a high level [1]. Market Driving Logic - The iron ore supply - demand pattern is weakening. Port inventories are rising, steel mill production is stable, terminal ore consumption is low, and steel mill profitability improvement is limited. Pre - holiday restocking expectation is positive. Domestic port arrivals have slightly declined, while miner shipments have reached a new weekly high for the year. Overall, the ore supply remains high. The iron ore price is running strongly at a high level due to spot structural contradictions and restocking expectations, but the fundamentals are weakening and the upward driving force is not strong, with attention on steel mill restocking [2].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The iron ore price is expected to continue its high - level volatile trend, with the 2605 contract showing a wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between long and short factors [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Information Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak oscillation". The overall view is "wide - range oscillation", with the core logic of the game between long and short factors leading to high - level oscillation of the ore price [2] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken. Port inventories are rising at a high level, steel mill production is stabilizing, and terminal ore consumption is weakly stable. Steel mill profitability improvement is limited, so the weak demand pattern is hard to change, but pre - holiday restocking is relatively positive. Domestic port arrivals and miner shipments have both decreased month - on - month but are still at annual highs, with active overseas ore supply. Even though domestic ore supply has shrunk, the overall ore supply remains high. The price is under pressure due to weakening demand and high supply, but there are still structural contradictions in the spot market and pre - holiday restocking expectations, which create resistance to the downward movement [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, iron ore prices rebounded slightly, with overall prices remaining range - bound. Future trading focuses on steel mills' restocking expectations and the downward space of hot metal production. The iron ore supply will have limited marginal increase, the hot metal production is at a historically low level, and the downward space is relatively limited. Iron ore will continue to accumulate inventory, but the marginal accumulation space will decrease. The future key factors are BHP negotiation, hot metal trend, and steel mills' restocking expectations. It is expected that the overall situation will remain range - bound, with the range reference of 730 - 820. For the 05 contract, it is recommended to operate in the range, and short at around 800 [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread Spot Price - The spot prices of various types of iron ore powder increased this week. For example, the price of Carajás fines increased by 7 yuan/ton to 872 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines increased by 13 yuan/ton to 794 yuan/ton [7]. Variety Basis - The basis of the 05 contract for different types of iron ore powder is presented, such as the basis of Carajás fines, PB fines, and Super Special fines [16][18][21]. Spot and Forward Transactions - The MA5 data of iron ore port spot transactions and forward transactions are presented, along with the import profit data of PB fines and Mac fines [31][33][35]. Inter - monthly Spread - The spread data between different iron ore contracts (such as I01 - 05, I2205 - I2209) are presented, as well as the position data of the 09 and 05 contracts [38][39][41]. Supply Global Shipment - This period's global iron ore shipment continued to increase, with the increment concentrated in Australia and Brazil. The total shipment of Australia and Brazil was 2,965.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 310.2 tons. Vale had the most significant growth [3]. Four Major Mines Shipment - The shipment data of Rio Tinto, BHP, Vale, and FMG to China are presented. For example, Vale's shipment increased by 204 tons week - on - week to 682 tons [56]. Australia and Brazil Freight - The freight data from Western Australia to Qingdao and from Tubarão, Brazil to Qingdao are presented. For example, the freight from Western Australia to Qingdao decreased by 0.5 dollars/ton to 10.4 dollars/ton [64]. Arrival Volume - The arrival volume of 45 ports and 47 ports increased this week. The arrival volume of 45 ports was 2,723 tons, a week - on - week increase of 243 tons [71]. Domestic Iron Ore Import - From January to October 2025, the total national iron ore import was 103,003 tons, a year - on - year increase of 804 tons. The import of Australian and Brazilian ore increased, while the import of non - mainstream ore decreased [84]. Domestic Concentrate Production and Sales - The iron concentrate production of 186 and 126 mining enterprises decreased this week. The production of 186 mining enterprises was 44.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 tons [95]. Demand Steel Enterprise Production Indicators - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel enterprises was 226.55 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.65 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.99 percentage points [110]. Furnace Charge Ratio - The sinter ore ratio in the furnace was 73.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 percentage points, and the pellet ore ratio was 15.29%, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points [127]. Global Steel and Pig Iron Production - The production data of global, Chinese, and other countries' steel and pig iron are presented, including India, Russia, Turkey, etc. The production and year - on - year changes are shown in the corresponding charts [128][131][133]. Inventory Port Inventory - As of December 19th, the inventory of 45 ports was 15,512.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 81.21 tons. The inventory of 45 ports and 47 ports and the inventory by cargo ownership are presented [3][157][160]. Steel Mill Inventory - The import ore inventory of steel mills decreased by 110.25 tons to 8,723.95 tons, and there was no obvious restocking behavior [3][165][166].

Core Viewpoint - The recent divergence between iron ore prices and supply-demand dynamics indicates that financial speculation and trade-related activities are irrational factors driving price increases, despite high port inventories [1][3]. Group 1: Iron Ore Price Trends - Iron ore prices have risen from $102.05 per ton on November 7 to $107.80 per ton on December 2, marking a 5.63% increase, while port inventories have accumulated to 159 million tons [1][3]. - The iron ore market is characterized by a loose supply-demand balance, with global shipments at historically high levels and daily iron output from 247 steel mills declining from 2.4564 million tons to 2.3468 million tons by the end of November [1][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The financial attributes of iron ore have significantly increased, with a growing trading atmosphere in the futures market since mid-November, reflected in rising total open interest and net positions among the top ten long and short positions [1][3]. - The long-short ratio among the top 20 positions has increased from 0.95 in early November to 1.07, indicating a stronger bullish sentiment [1][3]. Group 3: Speculative Behavior - Trade speculation has amplified price volatility, with the PB powder spot price premium rising from zero at the end of October to $1.20 per ton by November 24, driven primarily by traders [2][4]. - Traders with foreign backgrounds are leveraging their information and capital advantages to create a tense atmosphere in both spot and futures markets, leading to a significant divergence between spot prices and actual supply-demand conditions [2][4]. Group 4: Price Outlook - There is no basis for a sustained upward trend in iron ore prices, as the market has been in a range-bound phase since the fourth quarter due to ongoing supply-demand looseness [5]. - The current price increase is attributed to speculative activities rather than fundamental demand, with accumulating inventories and weak actual demand likely to exert downward pressure on prices [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to remain under pressure and run weakly, with the price outlook being weakly volatile. The core logic is that the demand continues to decline, and the supply remains at a high level [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlooks are all volatile, with the intraday being weakly volatile. The overall view is weakly volatile, due to the continuous decline in demand putting pressure on the ore price [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not changed significantly. Steel mill production is weakening, terminal consumption of ore is continuously declining, and the profit situation has not improved, so the weak demand pattern is hard to change, dragging down the ore price. Meanwhile, domestic port arrivals are continuously falling, while overseas miners' shipments continue to rise. Both are still at relatively high levels within the year, and overseas ore supply is active. Even though domestic ore supply is shrinking, the supply pressure of iron ore has not receded. Overall, macro - level positives are not beyond expectations, the market operation returns to the industrial end, and the iron ore market fundamentals are weak, so the ore price is expected to continue to be under pressure and run weakly [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to be under pressure and decline in a volatile manner, with a weakening supply - demand pattern and the real - world logic taking the lead. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on iron ore 2605 are "volatile", "volatile", and "weakly volatile" respectively, with an overall view of "weakly volatile" [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - For iron ore 2605, the short - term view is "volatile", the medium - term view is "volatile", and the intraday view is "weakly volatile", with an overall view of "weakly volatile". The core logic is that the real - world pattern is weakening, putting pressure on the ore price [2] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken. At the end of the year, steel mills' maintenance increases, terminal ore consumption declines, and steel mills' profitability has not improved, resulting in weak ore demand. Overseas miners' shipments have increased month - on - month, and both shipments and domestic port arrivals are at high levels within the year. Even though domestic ore supply has shrunk, overall iron ore supply remains high. The previous positive factors have pushed the ore price back to a high level, but now the demand is weakening while supply remains high, so the ore price is expected to decline under pressure [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to show a weak and volatile trend, with its fundamentals being weakly stable and the price fluctuating at a high level. The market sentiment is warm, and the previous positive factors still support the price. However, the demand for iron ore is weakening while the supply remains high, so the upward driving force is questionable, and the price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term (within one week) and medium - term (two weeks to one month) trends are both expected to be volatile, and the intraday trend is weakly volatile. The overall view is weakly volatile, with the core logic being that the fundamentals are weakly stable and the price is fluctuating at a high level [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The market sentiment is warm, and the iron ore price fluctuates upward. The supply - demand pattern has little change. The terminal consumption of ore continues to decline, and the profitability of steel mills is poor, so the demand remains weak, which suppresses the price. The arrival of ore at domestic ports has decreased, while the overseas miners' shipments have increased month - on - month. Both are at a high level within the year, and the overseas ore supply is active, while the domestic ore supply is stable, so the overall supply remains high. The market sentiment and previous positive factors support the price, but the fundamentals have not improved, and the upward driving force is questionable. The price is expected to remain in a high - level volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3].