1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly, but the price of Shanghai lead continues to decline under the influence of weakening demand. Affected by the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies on consumption, domestic inventories increase slightly, while overseas inventories start to accumulate again, putting significant pressure on lead prices. The overseas economic situation begins to weaken, and it is recommended to short on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,175 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.5%. The 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is 15 yuan/ton, and the position of Shanghai lead is 83,801 lots, an increase of 239 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is -179 lots, and the warehouse receipts are 46,439 tons, an increase of 50 tons. The LME 3 - month lead quotation is 2,039 US dollars/ton [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,925 yuan/ton and 17,140 yuan/ton respectively, with no change. The basis of the lead main contract is -75 yuan/ton, and the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is -250 US dollars/ton, a decline of 4.88% [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The supply and demand balance of lead in WBMS is 0.71 million tons. The number of production enterprises of recycled lead is 68, with no change. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is -16.33%, and the output of recycled lead is 22.42 million tons, a decline of 6.75%. The average operating rate of primary lead is 2.96%, and the output is 3.58 million tons, an increase of 0.01 million tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The lead ore import volume is 11.97 million tons, an increase of 2.48 million tons. The refined lead import volume is -1,021.76 tons. The domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 815.37 yuan/ton, with no change. The export volume of refined lead is 223.33 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries is 20,500 units, with no change. The output of automobiles is 264.2 million vehicles, an increase of 3.8%. The output of new energy vehicles is 7.3 million vehicles [3] 3.6 Industry News - US officials seek to narrow the scope of the trade agreement and strive to reach an agreement before July 9. Trump does not consider extending the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline and doubts about reaching an agreement with Japan. The US Senate passes the "big and beautiful" bill, and the House of Representatives is expected to vote this week [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report Core Views - The overall supply of SHFE lead is weak, which provides some support for prices, but the price is still under pressure due to weakening demand. The SHFE lead price is currently being suppressed by the annual line and is difficult to break through in the short - term. It is recommended to go short on rallies as the main strategy [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract is 17,225 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 60 yuan; the 07 - 08 contract spread is - 25 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the open interest is 80,736 lots, up 1,309 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 414 lots, down 582 lots; the warehouse receipts are 44,667 tons; the SHFE inventory is 51,291 tons, up 1,480 tons weekly; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,012 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars; the LME lead inventory is 277,375 tons, down 3,650 tons [2] 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 lead spot price is 17,000 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 lead spot price is 17,200 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the basis of the lead main contract is - 225 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the LME lead (0 - 3) forward premium is - 24.13 dollars/ton, up 0.13 dollars [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 73.83%, up 4% weekly, and the weekly output is 3.57 tons, up 0.09 tons; the processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 40 dollars/thousand tons; the global lead ore output is 399.7 thousand tons, down 3.7 thousand tons monthly; the lead ore import volume is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons monthly [2] 4. Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons monthly; the refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons monthly; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 640 yuan/ton; the average price of waste batteries is 10,150 yuan/ton, up 30.36 yuan [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries is 41,450,000 units, down 425,000 units monthly; the average price of lead - antimony alloy for batteries is 20,550 yuan/ton; the automobile output is 264.2 million vehicles, up 3.8 million vehicles monthly; the new energy vehicle output is 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles monthly [2] 6. Industry News - Trump is considering appointing the next Fed chair in advance to weaken Powell's influence; Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut interest rates 7 times in 2026 starting from March, with the final rate dropping to 2.5% - 2.75%; Powell said tariffs may be a one - time impact, inflation expectations have declined slightly since April, and the Fed does not consider federal debt in monetary policy decisions; Collins said it's time to be patient and cautious, and a rate cut may occur later this year depending on tariff impacts [2] 7. Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, primary lead smelters' operating rates and output have declined due to lead price fluctuations; the loss pressure of secondary lead has decreased, but the subsequent production increase is difficult due to the traditional off - season and raw material constraints. On the demand side, market transactions are weak, and the support for lead prices is limited. Overseas inventory is accumulating again, and domestic inventory has a slight increase [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The overall supply of Shanghai lead is weakening, which provides some support for prices. However, the price of Shanghai lead continues to be under pressure and decline due to the weakening demand. The supply of primary lead refineries has decreased due to price fluctuations, and the subsequent production increase of recycled lead is difficult, with limited overall supply growth. The market trading is generally light, and the support for lead prices is relatively limited. Both charging pile and automobile demand are showing signs of a slowdown in growth rate. Overseas inventory is re - accumulating, and domestic inventory is slightly increasing. The decline in lead concentrate processing fees has a negative impact on the subsequent production of recycled and primary lead [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract is 16,955 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 1,995 dollars/ton, up 6.5 dollars. - The spread between the 07 - 08 contracts of Shanghai lead is - 10 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 79,427 lots, down 1,566 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 249 lots, down 43 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 0 tons, down 43,760 tons. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 51,291 tons, up 1,480 tons; the LME lead inventory is 281,025 tons, down 3,050 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,750 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,040 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. - The basis of the main lead contract is - 205 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 24.26 dollars/ton, up 4.23 dollars. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,029 yuan, down 42 yuan; the domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,660 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan. - The production capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 34.95%, down 16.33 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 73.83%, up 4 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.57 tons, up 0.09 tons. - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 40 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the global lead mine output is 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons. - The monthly import volume of lead ore is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons; the lead supply - demand balance is 16.4 kilotons, up 48.8 kilotons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries is 10,119.64 yuan/ton, up 3.57 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41,450 units, down 425 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The monthly output of automobiles is 264.2 tons, up 3.8 tons; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 164.7 tons, up 7.3 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Middle East situation: Iran carried out a missile attack on a US air base in Qatar. Trump thanked Iran for the prior notice, and later announced a cease - fire between Israel and Iran. Oil prices dropped more than 9%. - Macro - aspect: Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Waller said a rate cut might be possible as early as the July meeting, while Barkin thought there was no urgent reason for a rate cut, and Daly believed the economy was moving towards a situation where a rate cut might be needed [2].