Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a short - allocation view on zinc [1] Core Viewpoints - For lead, although downstream has not entered the peak season and there is a risk of inventory accumulation, the continuous shortage of waste batteries, increased losses of secondary lead smelters, and high uncertainty in production start - up provide strong support for lead prices. Future attention should be paid to the improvement of demand and macro - uncertainty factors [1] - For zinc, although the recent macro sentiment has warmed up, and downstream spot trading has improved after the zinc price decline, considering the supply - side suppression and inventory accumulation expectations, the rebound space of zinc prices is limited, and the short - allocation view is still maintained [1] Summary by Related Content Lead Market - **Price and Market Data**: On June 17, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,750 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 16,980 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 7.56% to 30,240 lots, and the open interest decreased by 3.55% to 42,057 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 263,475 tons, while the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2.88% to 45,503 tons [1] - **Supply**: In Q1 2025, overseas lead concentrate production was about 588,000 mt, down 1.8% year - on - year and 6.1% quarter - on - quarter. Australia and North America contributed the most to the decline. It is expected that overseas lead concentrate production will slightly recover in Q2 [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 16, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in five locations was 56,400 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from June 9 and 1,600 tons from June 12 [1] - **Fundamentals**: Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase. Secondary lead smelters face raw material shortages and cost - price inversions, resulting in reduced production and increased finished product inventory. The demand side is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream procurement is expected to improve [1] Zinc Market - **Price and Market Data**: On June 17, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 21,930 yuan/ton, down 1.08% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 21,840 yuan/ton, up 0.11%. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 14.17% to 163,962 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5.60% to 116,264 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 130,225 tons, while the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 11.08% to 9,966 tons [1] - **Supply News**: On June 16, Australian mining company Polymetals Resources Ltd announced that its Endeavor silver - zinc mine in the Cobar region of New South Wales had achieved commercial production. It is expected to produce about 20,000 mt of zinc concentrate in 2025 [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 16, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven locations was 78,100 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from June 9 and an increase of 1,000 tons from June 12 [1] - **Fundamentals**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The supply shortage of zinc concentrate has improved, and the production limit on smelters has weakened. The demand side is in the off - season, but downstream procurement has improved after the zinc price decline. However, the zinc price rebound space is limited due to supply - side suppression and inventory accumulation expectations [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead price may rebound in the short - term due to the continuous tight supply of waste batteries, the expanding losses of secondary lead smelters, and the high uncertainty of their production, but the effectiveness of cost support and macro - uncertainties need to be further observed [1] - The zinc market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Although the inventory is relatively low, the inventory has stopped falling and started to increase, and the zinc price has broken through the 22,000 yuan/ton mark. The short - selling strategy is still recommended, but the decline may slow down due to potential improvement in downstream purchases [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,525.00 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 16,765.00 yuan/ton, down 0.09% [1] - The LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 1,988.00 US dollars/ton, up 0.71%; the ratio of Shanghai - London lead prices was 8.43, down 0.79% [1] Supply and Demand - The production of primary lead is stable with a slight increase, while the production of secondary lead is at a relatively low level due to the rising price of waste lead - acid batteries, limited supply of recyclers, and high reluctance to sell. The demand is weak as it is in the off - season [1] Inventory - As of June 9, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in five locations was 53,400 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons from June 3 and more than 500 tons from June 5 [1] Investment Strategy - The lead price may rebound in the short - term, but attention should be paid to cost support and macro - uncertainties [1] Zinc Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,520.00 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 21,910.00 yuan/ton, down 2.12% [1] - The LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,654.00 US dollars/ton, down 0.32%; the ratio of Shanghai - London zinc prices was 8.26, down 1.81% [1] Supply and Demand - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and the zinc ore processing fee is rising. The supply is increasing, while the demand is in the off - season. Although the start - up rate of some downstream sectors has rebounded, the overall demand is still weak, and it is expected to decline this week considering environmental inspections [1] Inventory - As of June 9, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven locations was 81,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from June 3 and 2,400 tons from June 5 [1] Investment Strategy - The zinc market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The short - selling strategy is still recommended, but the decline may slow down due to potential improvement in downstream purchases [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The raw material shortage has led to production cuts at lead smelters, providing strong support for the downside of lead prices. The lead price is expected to trade in a wide range in the short term, with subsequent focus on macro uncertainties [1]. - The fundamentals of Shanghai zinc are weak, and it is expected to trade in a wide range in the short term. In the medium to long term, the TC has room to rise, and the center of the zinc price may shift downwards. A strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended, with subsequent focus on macro - sentiment disturbances [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lead Market - **Price and Market Indicators**: On May 23, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,625 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day. The closing price of the futures main contract was 16,685 yuan/ton, down 1.27%. The trading volume of the futures active contract increased by 106.00% to 42,980 lots, and the open interest increased by 170.23% to 45,301 lots. The LME inventory was 295,825 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 39,327 tons, down 4.30% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The operation of primary lead smelters was stable with a slight increase. For secondary lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries rose continuously, and recyclers had limited supplies. Some smelters cut or stopped production due to cost inversion, and the operating rate declined significantly. The demand was in the off - season, with weak downstream procurement [1]. - **Inventory**: As of May 22, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in five locations was 5.03 million tons, a decrease of 0.57 million tons from May 15 and 0.88 million tons from May 19 [1]. 3.2 Zinc Market - **Price and Market Indicators**: On May 23, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,580 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The closing price of the futures main contract was 22,455 yuan/ton, down 0.55%. The trading volume of the futures active contract decreased by 16.49% to 82,262 lots, and the open interest decreased by 11.19% to 59,658 lots. The LME inventory was 156,225 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 1,400 tons [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Zinc smelters had sufficient raw material stocks, and the zinc concentrate processing fee continued to rise. The production of smelters increased, but the terminal demand had not improved, and downstream enterprises were bearish on the future zinc price and had weak procurement enthusiasm. Different downstream sectors had different performances [1]. - **Inventory**: As of May 22, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven locations was 8.04 million tons, a decrease of 0.59 million tons from May 15 and 0.34 million tons from May 19 [1]. 3.3 Other Information - The Port Pirie multi - metal smelter in Australia, owned by Nyrstar, has the capacity to produce up to 5,000 tons of antimony metal or antimony trioxide per year but needs additional processing steps and government funding. The Australian smelting industry is facing challenges from high domestic electricity costs and over - capacity in China [1]. - Canadian mining company Foran Mining plans to raise 350 million Canadian dollars through non - brokered private placement for the construction and exploration of the McIlvenna Bay copper - zinc project. The project is expected to start commercial production in mid - 2026 [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For lead, due to tight raw materials, some secondary lead smelters have cut production, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate widely in the short term [1]. - For zinc, the macro - sentiment is stable and positive, but the fundamentals of SHFE zinc are weak. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and the center of the zinc price may shift down in the long - term. A strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - On May 21, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,650 yuan/ton, down 0.45% from the previous day; the closing price of the SHFE lead futures main contract was 16,845 yuan/ton, down 0.09% [1]. - The trading volume of the active lead futures contract was 24,386 lots, down 9.32%; the open interest was 22,798 lots, down 16.76% [1]. - LME lead inventory was 245,750 tons, unchanged; SHFE lead warrant inventory was 44,980 tons, down 10.12% [1]. Company and Industry News - Huayu Mining completed a mining volume of 283.3 million tons and a beneficiation volume of 242.66 million tons in 2024. The Shannan Branch completed a lead - zinc - antimony metal volume of 36,200 tons, including 19,600 tons of zinc, 14,400 tons of lead, 2235 tons of antimony, and 53.57 tons of silver [1]. Fundamental Analysis - The operation rate of primary lead is stable with a slight increase, while the operation rate of secondary lead has decreased significantly due to rising raw material costs and limited supplies [1]. - The demand is in the off - season, and downstream procurement is weak, providing limited support for the lead price [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - On May 21, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,540 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day; the closing price of the SHFE zinc futures main contract was 22,435 yuan/ton, down 0.09% [1]. - The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract was 94,706 lots, down 24.89%; the open interest was 76,630 lots, down 10.44% [1]. - LME zinc inventory was 156,725 tons, unchanged; SHFE zinc warrant inventory was 1,526 tons, down 10.29% [1]. Company and Industry News - Zijin Mining's Kyzyl - Tashtyg lead - zinc mine in Russia will maintain normal operation, canceling the plan to suspend operations in June. In 2024, the mine produced about 71,300 DMT of zinc concentrate and about 4750 tons of lead concentrate [1]. - In April 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrates was 494,700 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 37.6% and a year - on - year increase of 72.07%. The cumulative import volume from January to April was 1.7125 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45.26% [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The limitation of raw material shortages on smelter production has weakened, and production is expected to increase [1]. - After the May Day holiday, the operation rate of downstream enterprises has increased, but the terminal market has not improved, and downstream enterprises are bearish on the zinc price and have weak procurement enthusiasm [1]. - Different downstream sectors have different performances: galvanizing has mixed performance, die - casting zinc alloy has good electronic orders but weak traditional hardware orders, and zinc oxide has uncertain export orders due to anti - dumping investigations [1].