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沪锡日评:国内精炼锡产能开工率环比下降,国内外精炼锡库存量较上周增加-20250516
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 01:18
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The price of Shanghai tin may be strong first and then weak due to factors such as the decline in US tariffs on China, potential relaxation of US restrictions on chip exports to Gulf countries, the expected resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and the increase in refined tin inventories at home and abroad. Investors are advised to wait and see, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai tin and London tin [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - On May 15, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai tin futures active contract was 265,210 yuan, down 560 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 72,966 lots, a decrease of 13,194 lots; the open interest was 30,513 lots, a decrease of 997 lots; the inventory was 8,163 tons, a decrease of 16 tons [1] - The closing price of the LME 3 - month tin futures (electronic trading) on May 15, 2025, was 32,814 US dollars, up 160 US dollars from the previous day; the LME tin global inventory was 2,745 tons, unchanged from the previous day [1] Company News - Inner Mongolia Xingye Yinxi Mining Co., Ltd. plans to have its wholly - owned subsidiary, Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) Mining Co., Ltd., conduct an off - market conditional offer to acquire all the issued shares of Atlantic Tin Limited at a price of 0.24 Australian dollars per share [1] Supply - side Information - In the supply side, Myanmar's Wa State's mining policies have changed, and the Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) has复产. These factors may lead to a decrease in China's tin ore production and imports in May, and the domestic tin concentrate processing fee has been oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation. The supply of scrap tin is expected to increase but still remains tight. The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Yunnan and Jiangxi have decreased, and the production and inventory of refined tin in China in May may decrease. The export volume of Indonesia's refined tin in May may increase, and China's refined tin imports and exports may both increase [1] Demand - side Information - In the demand side, the daily processing fee of photovoltaic welding strips has decreased, which may lead to a decrease in the operating rate and inventory of China's tin solder production capacity in May. The import and export volume of welding strips in May may change, and the production, import, and export volume of tin - plated sheets in May may also change. The operating rate of China's lead - acid battery production capacity has increased [1] Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to wait and see, paying attention to the support level of 230,000 - 250,000 yuan and the pressure level of 270,000 - 280,000 yuan for Shanghai tin, and the support level of 28,000 - 30,000 US dollars and the pressure level of 33,000 - 35,000 US dollars for London tin [1]