研究报告 橡胶周报 供需矛盾并不明显，盘面或将维持震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2601 价格在 15125-15580 元/吨 之间运行，上周 RU2601 期货价格震荡运行，总体微幅上涨。 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 截至 2025 年 11 月 21 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2601 报收 15240 元/吨，当周上涨 25 点，涨幅 0.16%。 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格震荡运行，总体微幅 上涨。 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 24 日星期一 展望后市，宏观方面，受非农数据影响，美联储降息预期 减弱，影响商品情绪。从基本面来看，供给方面，橡胶成本端 存在支撑。10 月天然橡胶进口数量同比小幅增加，1-10 月，中 国累计进口天然及合成橡胶增幅明显。需求方面，上周轮胎企 业开工率较上周均有下降，全钢胎、半钢胎延续累库累库。终 端车市方面， ...

11月21日，"高标准建设海南自由贸易港"（天津市）专场新闻发布会召开。 今年12月18日，海南自贸港将正式启动全岛封关运作。据介绍，封关硬件设施设备已经全面建成。包括 8个对外开放口岸、10个二线口岸的基础设施和所有的查验设备设施全部竣工验收，并且进入试运行状 态。 封关之后，海南将实施更加优惠的货物零关税政策、更加宽松的贸易管理措施、更加便利的通行措施和 更加高效精准的监管模式，人流、物流、资金流、数据流进出将更为便利。 个人所得税15%的优惠政策没有行业限制，各个行业的高端紧缺人才都可以适用这项优惠政策。除此之 外，旅游业、现代服务业、高新技术产业三大产业，在海南自贸港还可以适用新增境外投资所得免征企 业所得税政策。 值得注意的是，零关税和低税率政策，是自贸港税收制度体系的不同环节，企业在生产经营的过程中可 以叠加适用这些政策。 举个例子，一家生物医药类企业，在进口原材料、生产设备的时候，可以适用零关税政策。进口东南亚 国家天然橡胶，在海南自贸港加工增值达到或超过30%销往内地时，还可以适用加工增值免关税政策。 企业盈利后，可以适用企业所得税15%优惠政策。同时，这家企业的高管和技术人员还可以适用个人所 ...

11月21日，"高标准建设海南自由贸易港"（天津市）专场新闻发布会召开。 今年12月18日，海南自贸港将正式启动全岛封关运作。据介绍，封关硬件设施设备已经全面建成。包括8个 对外开放口岸、10个二线口岸的基础设施和所有的查验设备设施全部竣工验收，并且进入试运行状态。 封关之后，海南将实施更加优惠的货物零关税政策、更加宽松的贸易管理措施、更加便利的通行措施和更 加高效精准的监管模式，人流、物流、资金流、数据流进出将更为便利。 比如，根据我国现行税则，生产设备的关税税率大体上在5%~10%，同时还有13%的进口环节增值税。一家 企业在海南自贸港进口生产设备时，可以节约20%左右的税收成本。 另一方面是低税率政策，主要涉及企业所得税、个人所得税"双15%"优惠政策。企业所得税15%优惠政策主 要适用于鼓励类产业相关企业，如生物医药、海上风电等。海南自贸港的鼓励类产业目录有1100多项，是 全国最长的。 个人所得税15%的优惠政策没有行业限制，各个行业的高端紧缺人才都可以适用这项优惠政策。除此之 外，旅游业、现代服务业、高新技术产业三大产业，在海南自贸港还可以适用新增境外投资所得免征企业 所得税政策。 值得注意的是， ...

在已落地生根的18项税收政策中，14项是《总体方案》明确的、在封关运作前实施的早期收获政策，包 括原辅料、自用生产设备、交通工具及游艇3张"零关税"清单，企业和个人所得税15%、离岛免税等。 另外4项是《总体方案》之外、近几年又出台的增量政策，包括博鳌乐城药品医疗器械"零关税"、离岸 贸易印花税免税、临时进境维修和临时出境维修免税政策。 周正称，12月18日海南自贸港全岛封关运作后，"零关税"政策将由目前3张"零关税"清单整合升级，转 化为负面清单管理，届时将由进口征税商品目录和货物流通税收政策2项政策替代运行，"14+4"项政策 将转化为"13+4"项政策。 18项税收政策在海南自贸港落地生根 中新网海口11月22日电 (记者 王子谦)特殊的税收制度安排是海南自贸港政策制度体系的保障。自海南 自贸港建设以来，18项税收政策已先后在海南自贸港落地生根。 在21日举行的"高标准建设海南自由贸易港"天津专场新闻发布会上，海南省财政厅党组成员、副厅长、 新闻发言人周正表示，《海南自由贸易港建设总体方案》(简称"《总体方案》")对特殊的税制安排作出 了明确部署，即以贸易投资自由化便利化为重点，围绕"一线放开、二线管住 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start its full island closure operation on December 18, with comprehensive infrastructure and facilities already in place, aiming to enhance trade and investment through favorable policies and streamlined regulations [1][2]. Tax Policy Enhancements - The zero-tariff policy will expand significantly, increasing the number of goods eligible for zero tariffs from over 1,900 to 6,637, raising the zero-tariff coverage from 21% to 74% [2][3]. - This policy will cover not only import tariffs but also value-added tax and consumption tax, allowing companies to significantly reduce procurement costs, with potential savings of around 20% on imported production equipment [2][3]. Tax Incentives for Enterprises - A dual 15% preferential tax policy will be implemented for corporate income tax and personal income tax, applicable to various industries, particularly in encouraged sectors like biomedicine and offshore wind power [2][3]. - The personal income tax reduction has no industry restrictions, benefiting high-demand talents across all sectors, while specific industries like tourism and modern services can enjoy additional tax exemptions on overseas investment income [3]. Tourism Development Plans - The tourism sector will focus on high-end consumption projects, deep-sea experiences, and innovative marine technology, aiming to transform marine tourism into a significant economic driver for the free trade port [4]. - Key projects include establishing regional headquarters for international cruise companies and developing large-scale space-themed parks and immersive experience centers to attract social capital [4][5]. Infrastructure and Experience Enhancement - Development will focus on high-quality resorts, camping sites, and wellness vacation projects along the "green necklaces" of the island's tourism roads, enhancing the overall tourist experience [5][6]. - The integration of smart tourism and agricultural-cultural tourism will be promoted to further enrich the tourism offerings [6].

Core Viewpoint - Hainan Free Trade Zone concept stocks experienced a significant surge, with the overall sector rising by 3.8% amid a weak market backdrop, indicating strong investor interest and optimism regarding the upcoming policy changes in Hainan [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Hainan Free Trade Zone stocks, including Xunlong Holdings and Hainan Haiyao, saw rapid increases, with several stocks hitting the daily limit up within minutes of market opening [1][4]. - By 14:00, stocks such as Kangzhi Pharmaceutical and Hainan Mining also reached their daily limit, showcasing a broad-based rally in the sector [4]. Group 2: Policy Changes and Implications - The full island closure operation of Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially start on December 18, 2025, with significant expansions in the range of "zero tariff" products from 1,900 to approximately 6,600 items, covering about 74% of all goods [4][8]. - The new policies will lower the threshold for companies to benefit from tax exemptions and expand the range of imported materials, which is expected to enhance the development prospects of local retail, tourism, manufacturing, and cross-border e-commerce sectors [1][4]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The "zero tariff" policy has already led to substantial tax reductions, with the import value of goods under this policy reaching 9.834 billion yuan and tax exemptions totaling 2.585 billion yuan as of September this year [6]. - The introduction of new aircraft under the "zero tariff" policy has significantly reduced costs for companies, exemplified by a recent Airbus A330 acquisition that saved approximately 114 million yuan in taxes [4][5]. Group 4: Future Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest that the new policies will catalyze a shift in investment focus from B2C consumption to B2B industrial upgrades and high-value service sectors, with particular attention on modern logistics, high-tech industries, and tourism-related services [9][10]. - The strategic positioning of Hainan as a new hub for domestic and international trade is expected to attract significant investment, driven by its unique policy advantages and the ongoing restructuring of supply chains [10].

Core Insights - The article highlights the positive impact of China's zero-tariff policy on agricultural exports from Uganda and Rwanda, particularly focusing on coffee and chili peppers, which are gaining access to the Chinese market and benefiting local farmers [9][11][14]. Uganda - Coffee Industry - Coffee is a major export product for Uganda, with approximately 12 million people involved in the coffee sector, contributing about 20% to the country's foreign exchange earnings [11]. - The export of Ugandan coffee to China has significantly increased, with a reported 139.8 tons exported in the first half of the year, marking a nearly 160% year-on-year growth [11]. - The zero-tariff policy implemented by China for 98% of Ugandan products since December 2022 has facilitated easier access for Ugandan coffee in the Chinese market [11]. - The Robusta coffee bean, particularly the 18-screen size, is favored by Chinese consumers due to its large size, high density, and rich oil content [11]. - Ugandan coffee organizations are actively participating in trade exhibitions in China to enhance product quality and meet consumer preferences [11]. Rwanda - Chili Pepper Industry - Rwanda's dry chili peppers have gained zero-tariff treatment for exports to China, leading to increased confidence among local farmers and expansion of cultivation [14]. - The first batch of Rwandan dry chili peppers was exported to China in August 2021, making Rwanda the first African country to export this product to China [14]. - The collaboration between Rwandan farms and Chinese partners aims to modernize the chili pepper industry, with a project covering 100 hectares and utilizing an order-based agricultural model [14]. - The expected export volume of dry chili peppers from Rwanda to China is projected to reach 200 tons in the first planting season of the new project [14]. - The increase in chili pepper exports is improving the livelihoods of local farmers, with reports of enhanced income and living conditions [14].

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes China's commitment to providing 100% zero-tariff treatment on products for all least developed countries that have diplomatic relations with China, showcasing China's role in promoting global development and shared prosperity [1][2] - China has maintained its position as Africa's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years, with a 10.8% increase in imports from African countries in the third quarter of this year [1] - The zero-tariff policy is a specific measure under China's broader strategy to expand high-level opening-up and is expected to enhance trade liberalization and economic globalization, contributing to global prosperity [2] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding high-level opening-up and creating win-win cooperation, with zero-tariff policies being a concrete initiative to achieve these goals [2] - The introduction of zero-tariff measures is expected to enrich the Chinese market with diverse products, such as Ugandan coffee and Nepalese spices, while also promoting the development of related domestic industries [2]

新华社记者裴剑容、褚萌萌、赵晨捷 纹样繁复的地毯、色彩艳丽的包袋、流光溢彩的珠宝……正在上海举行的第八届中国国际进口博览 会期间，阿富汗展商哈默德·拉尔夫的摊位吸引了众多参观者。 "每年，我都能在进博会期间结识不少新的合作商。"8届进博会"全勤"的拉尔夫说，"更开心的是能 通过我的商品推介阿富汗文化。" 从首届"参团"阿富汗馆到如今独立设展，拉尔夫的进博之旅不断进阶，其在华生意也逐渐扩大，正 计划在义乌增开一个仓库。 新华社上海11月8日电 题：最不发达国家展商在进博会上共享中国大市场机遇 阿富汗是联合国认定的全球40余个最不发达国家之一，本届进博会共有其中37个国家参与。中国大 市场正成为世界大机遇，让发展成果更多更公平惠及各国人民。 11月7日，人们在第八届进博会国家展卢旺达馆洽谈。新华社记者 任鹏飞 摄 为最不发达国家"扩容" 在非洲产品专区，身着冈比亚传统服饰的摩西·松科拿着一袋袋腰果，忙着认识新朋友、沟通洽 谈。这种干果产自炎热干旱的环境，今年6月获准自冈比亚输华，在初冬的上海实现首秀。 "新鲜和自然的味道，是冈比亚腰果的最大优势。"松科说，"中国腰果消费量过去几年持续增长， 市场潜力巨大。我对未来 ...

Core Insights - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) marks the first event after China expanded its zero-tariff policy to 53 African countries, resulting in an 80% increase in African exhibitors compared to the previous year [8][15][16] - The expo showcases a variety of African products, including coffee, honey, and avocados, highlighting the growing interest and market potential for African goods in China [10][12][14] Group 1: African Exhibitors and Products - South African exhibitor Nicholas De Vries expressed optimism about finding new markets in China, noting that Shanghai's population is about one-third of South Africa's total population [8][10] - Senegalese exhibitor Cheikh aims to promote peanut products at the expo, having already engaged with several potential clients [10][12] - Kenyan avocados, known for their high quality, have been successfully exported to China since 2022, marking Kenya as the first African country to export fresh avocados to the Chinese market [10][12] Group 2: Trade Opportunities and Market Expansion - The "African Goodies" brand was launched at the fourth China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo, receiving positive consumer feedback and showcasing products from multiple African countries [11][12] - The expo serves as a platform for African SMEs to enter the Chinese market, with initiatives to reduce channel construction costs and facilitate trade [11][12] - The zero-tariff policy is expected to encourage African countries to produce more goods for export to China, enhancing economic cooperation and mutual benefits [15][16] Group 3: Economic Impact and Future Prospects - China has maintained its position as Africa's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years, with trade expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan in 2024 [15][16] - The zero-tariff policy is seen as a significant opportunity for African nations to boost their economies and improve local living standards through increased exports [15][16] - The expo not only fosters economic ties but also promotes cultural exchange and mutual understanding between China and Africa [15][16]