Core Insights - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an increase of 147,000 in non-farm employment for June, consistent with the average monthly increase of 146,000 over the past 12 months [1] Group 1 - Non-farm employment increased by 147,000 in June [1] - The average monthly increase in non-farm employment over the past year was 146,000 [1]

Economic Outlook - Economists predict a slowdown in job growth for June, with non-farm payrolls expected to increase by 115,000, down from 139,000 in May, and the unemployment rate anticipated to rise from 4.2% to 4.3% [1][4] - David Rogal from BlackRock notes that while the labor market is slowing, there are no signs of panic, with expected job growth at a moderate level just above 100,000 [1] Labor Market Indicators - Weekly claims for unemployment benefits are showing early signs of weakness in the June job market, with UBS economists indicating a decline in labor market strength over the past 6 to 8 weeks, predicting job additions of only 100,000 for June [1][4] - The average hourly wage is expected to rise by 0.3%, lower than May's increase of 0.4%, reflecting ongoing policy uncertainties affecting the labor market [4] Policy Uncertainties - A significant factor impacting employment data is President Trump's decision to terminate Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for approximately 380,000 individuals, with an additional 558,000 set to expire in the coming months. UBS estimates this could lead to a reduction of about 5,000 jobs in June [5] - Goldman Sachs forecasts a much lower job addition of 85,000 for June, attributing part of this to the TPS policy, which may reduce non-farm employment by 25,000 [5] Tariff Implications - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, particularly with a deadline set for July 9, is another factor affecting the labor market. Even if tariffs do not revert to previous levels, the ongoing uncertainty is already impacting economic conditions [5] - According to the Kansas City Fed's June manufacturing survey, about 25% of businesses have reduced hiring, and 21% have laid off employees, indicating a direct impact from policy uncertainties [5] Federal Reserve Outlook - Market predictions suggest an approximately 80% chance that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at the upcoming July meeting, influenced by rising inflation expectations, particularly concerning potential tariff-induced inflation [6]

Employment Data - In May, non-farm employment increased by 139,000, exceeding market expectations of 126,000, despite a downward revision of 95,000 in the previous two months[5] - The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.24% in April, up from 4.19% in March, marking a near three-year high[5] - The labor force participation rate decreased from 62.6% to 62.4%[5] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in July dropped significantly to 16.7% following the employment data release[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates steady in June and July, with potential cuts in September and either November or December[2] - Market expectations for policy rates have shifted closer to the Federal Reserve's stance rather than the White House's position[2] Sector Performance - Service sector employment rose from 132,000 to 145,000, indicating resilience in this area, while goods-producing jobs fell from an increase of 11,000 to a decrease of 5,000[5] - Average hourly earnings saw a month-on-month increase of 0.42%, maintaining a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9%[5] - Job openings to unemployed persons ratio remains at 1, below the 2019 level, indicating a balanced labor market[5]

Core Insights - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm employment increased by 139,000 in May, which is similar to the average monthly increase of 149,000 over the previous 12 months [1] Group 1 - Non-farm employment growth in May was 139,000, indicating a steady labor market [1] - The average monthly increase over the past year was 149,000, suggesting consistency in employment trends [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, surpassing market expectations of 130,000, although the previous month's figure was revised down to 147,000, indicating a slowdown in job growth [1] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% for the third consecutive month, which may provide the Federal Reserve with the space to delay interest rate cuts [1] - The U.S. economy needs to create approximately 100,000 jobs per month to keep pace with the growth of the working-age population, a figure that may decline due to the revocation of temporary legal status for hundreds of thousands of immigrants [1] Employment Trends - The majority of job growth this year reflects companies hoarding workers amid uncertainty over trade policies, which has hindered employers' ability to plan ahead [1] - Conservative Republican senators and figures like Elon Musk have opposed President Trump's tax and spending plans, adding another layer of uncertainty for businesses [1] - Employers' reluctance to lay off workers may lead the Federal Reserve to adopt a wait-and-see approach until the end of the year [1] Federal Reserve Outlook - Financial markets expect the Federal Reserve to maintain the benchmark overnight interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% this month, with a potential return to easing policies in September [1]