有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/02 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/25 20 674 100814 21470 -1355.85 110.21 38.0 66.0 100.69 93475 37225 2025/06/26 60 927 100814 23696 -3183.29 104.25 37.0 65.0 319.83 93075 36450 2025/06/27 105 1572 81550 25346 -2612.60 54.46 37.0 58.0 240.67 91275 33625 2025/06/30 130 1559 81550 25851 -1666.99 249.33 30.0 50.0 181.69 90625 32925 2025/07/01 200 1759 81550 24773 -1085.77 219.08 30.0 48.0 116.30 91250 31975 变化 70 ...

市场主流观点汇总 2025/7/1 报告说明 关 迪 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 期货从业资格证号：F3036000 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0016090 黄 恬 期货从业资格证号：F03100883 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0021089 | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/6/27 | | 2025/6/23 | 至 2025/6/27 | | | 焦炭 | 1421.50 | 焦炭 | | 2.67% | | | 铜 | 79920.00 | 铜 | | 2.47% | | ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/01 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/24 35 621 100814 22425 -1604.62 112.67 38.0 59.0 150.85 94675 40150 2025/06/25 20 674 100814 21470 -1355.85 110.21 38.0 66.0 100.69 93475 37225 2025/06/26 60 927 100814 23696 -3183.29 104.25 37.0 65.0 319.83 93075 36450 2025/06/27 105 1572 81550 25346 -2612.60 54.46 37.0 58.0 240.67 91275 33625 2025/06/30 130 1559 81550 25851 -1666.99 249.33 30.0 50.0 181.69 90625 32925 变化 25 - ...

2025.06. 30 加美两国围绕数字服务税的争端在数日内快速升级。当地时间6月26日，商鹏飞表示不会推迟向科技 公司征收数字服务税的计划。27日，特朗普宣布，因加拿大对美国科技公司征收数字服务税，美国 将停止与加拿大的所有贸易谈判，并将很快宣布对加拿大的新关税税率。同一天，美国财长贝森特表 示，美国政府或将对加拿大征收的数字服务税发起"301调查"。 本文字数：1560，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一 财经 程程 封图 | 新华社 加拿大数字服务税自去年6月起实施，但首批税款将从6月30日开始收缴。根据计划，加拿大政府将 针对科技公司向加拿大用户提供数字服务或出售加拿大用户数据的收入征收3%的税，并追溯至相关 公司2022年的收入。这意味着符合征税标准的美国公司在7月底前将面临20亿美元的税款。而美国 政府一直对此持反对态度。 加拿大缘何"退一步" 卡尼在声明中表示，"今天的声明将有助于重启谈判，以实现本月七国集团（G7）领导人峰会上提出 的2025年7月21日的时间表。" 商鹏飞也在声明中称："取消数字服务税将使与美国建立新的经济和安全关系的谈判取得重要进展， 并加强我们为所有加拿大人创造就业机会和 ...

加美两国围绕数字服务税的争端在数日内快速升级。 据央视新闻，当地时间6月29日，加拿大财政部在一份声明中表示，加拿大已取消数字服务税，以推进 与美国的贸易谈判。 该声明还表示，加拿大总理卡尼和美国总统特朗普将恢复贸易谈判，以期在7月21日之前达成协议。加 拿大财政部部长商鹏飞将很快提出立法，废除《数字服务税法》。 加美两国围绕数字服务税的争端在数日内快速升级。当地时间6月26日，商鹏飞表示不会推迟向科技公 司征收数字服务税的计划。27日，特朗普宣布，因加拿大对美国科技公司征收数字服务税，美国将停止 与加拿大的所有贸易谈判，并将很快宣布对加拿大的新关税税率。同一天，美国财长贝森特表示，美国 政府或将对加拿大征收的数字服务税发起"301调查"。 加拿大数字服务税自去年6月起实施，但首批税款将从6月30日开始收缴。根据计划，加拿大政府将针对 科技公司向加拿大用户提供数字服务或出售加拿大用户数据的收入征收3%的税，并追溯至相关公司 2022年的收入。这意味着符合征税标准的美国公司在7月底前将面临20亿美元的税款。而美国政府一直 对此持反对态度。 卡尼在声明中表示，"今天的声明将有助于重启谈判，以实现本月七国集团（G7 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is in a tight balance with low inventory and a high risk of squeezing. After the S232 investigation results are released, the market logic may reverse [1]. - The aluminum market has a short - term stable fundamental situation, with supply and demand expected to be balanced in July. Attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1]. - The zinc market maintains a short - selling strategy, and the long - short spread between domestic and foreign markets can be held [2]. - For nickel, continue to focus on the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [4]. - The stainless - steel market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [5]. - The lead market is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week, with a slight decrease in supply and weak demand in July [7]. - The tin market can hold long positions cautiously in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - to - long term [10]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to be strong in the short term and will be mainly based on the bottom operation of the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers in the medium - to - long term [13]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to continue to face supply surplus and price pressure next week, but the "anti - involution" competition policy may affect sentiment [15]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 23 - 27, the Shanghai copper spot price increased by 45, the LME inventory decreased by 1,800 tons, and the LME cash - 3M spread changed significantly [1]. - **Market Situation**: The S232 investigation on copper is pending. The US has siphoned a large amount of electrolytic copper, leading to low inventory and a high risk of squeezing. After the investigation results are released, the market logic may change [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 23 - 27, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 280, and the social inventory remained stable [1]. - **Market Situation**: Supply increased slightly in 1 - 5 months. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July. The market is in a balanced state in terms of supply and demand, and attention should be paid to low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the zinc price fluctuated upward. The domestic TC increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the import TC increased by 10 dollars/dry ton. The LME inventory decreased by 625 tons [2]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is expected to increase in July. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand is also weak. The short - selling strategy remains unchanged, and the long - short spread between domestic and foreign markets can be held [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 23 - 27, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 450, and the LME inventory increased by 78 tons [4]. - **Market Situation**: The supply of pure nickel remains high, and the demand is weak. The inventory in overseas nickel plates is stable, and the domestic inventory decreases slightly. Continue to focus on the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The price of waste stainless steel remained stable from June 23 - 27. The inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly, and the exchange warehouse receipts decreased [5]. - **Market Situation**: The supply decreased due to production cuts in some steel mills since late May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [5]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the lead price rebounded from a low level. The LME inventory increased by 175 tons [7]. - **Market Situation**: The supply side has some problems, and the demand side is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week, and there is a risk of a price - support cycle if the price remains above 17,200 [7]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the tin price fluctuated upward. The LME inventory increased by 60 tons [10]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is affected by the situation in Myanmar, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply and demand in the first half of the year. Cautiously hold long positions in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities in the medium - to - long term [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The base difference strengthened, and the warehouse receipts decreased. The production of leading enterprises decreased significantly, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction [13]. - **Market Situation**: The production of leading enterprises decreased significantly, and the market is expected to be strong in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, it will be mainly based on the bottom operation of the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the lithium carbonate price increased due to sentiment speculation. The base difference weakened, and the registered warehouse receipts decreased [15]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is expected to continue to be in surplus next week, and the price is under pressure. However, the "anti - involution" competition policy may affect sentiment [15].

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/27 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/20 115 581 100814 33882 -2374.98 385.28 40.0 61.0 274.99 99200 44800 2025/06/23 90 521 100814 25528 -2539.49 228.07 38.0 60.0 279.97 95875 41450 2025/06/24 35 621 100814 22425 -1604.62 112.67 38.0 59.0 150.85 94675 40150 2025/06/25 20 674 100814 21470 -1355.85 110.21 38.0 66.0 100.69 93475 37225 2025/06/26 60 927 100814 23696 -3183.29 104.25 37.0 65.0 319.83 93075 36450 变化 40 2 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/26 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/19 135 657 101943 44816 -1293.68 271.41 40.0 61.0 133.36 103325 49100 2025/06/20 115 581 100814 33882 -2374.98 385.28 40.0 61.0 274.99 99200 44800 2025/06/23 90 521 100814 25528 -2539.49 228.07 38.0 60.0 279.97 95875 41450 2025/06/24 35 621 100814 22425 -1604.62 112.67 38.0 59.0 150.85 94675 40150 2025/06/25 20 674 100814 21470 -1355.85 110.21 38.0 66.0 100.69 93475 37225 变化 -1 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/25 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/18 190 827 101943 47014 -1191.00 9.70 40.0 61.0 105.96 107350 53175 2025/06/19 135 657 101943 44816 -1293.68 271.41 40.0 61.0 133.36 103325 49100 2025/06/20 115 581 100814 33882 -2374.98 385.28 40.0 61.0 274.99 99200 44800 2025/06/23 90 521 100814 25528 -2539.49 228.07 38.0 60.0 279.97 95875 41450 2025/06/24 35 621 100814 22425 -1604.62 112.67 38.0 59.0 150.85 94675 40150 变化 -5 ...

铜杆企业、贸易商调研总结 第一部分 调研摘要 本次对铜杆企业和多家贸易商进行调研。重点关注原料供应、国内外库存流向、消费预 期、232 落地的影响以及对价格的看法等几个方面。供应端，部分矿山主动调整铜矿发货量， 原来供应给海外冶炼厂的长单货源流入国内。由于中国对美加征关税后，国内废铜供应紧张， 但站在全球的角度来看，废铜的供应并没有实际的减少，更多的还是供应错配。国内冶炼厂 仍将按照年度生产计划完成生产，海外减产和新投产并存，下半年供应继续增加，增量下降 到 20 多万吨。在 232 未落地前，非美地区库存难以有效提高，lme 的货如果到国内，lme 就 会持续逼仓，现在出口窗口打开以后，部分冶炼厂出口，但纯虚盘内外反套面临较大的结构 亏损，风险较大，比值进一步下跌才会考虑反套操作。若 232 落地，价差会回落，但价格是 否同步下跌存在分歧。需求方面，市场对下半年消费走弱基本形成了共识，分歧主要表现在 下滑的幅度上。市场对短期和中期的价格预期较为一致，短期价格维持在 77000-79000 元/ 吨震荡，中期 74000-75000 元/吨存在较强的支撑。 第二部分 调研背景 | | 2024- M05 | ...