早上好！先来看重要资讯。 古巴内务部：美籍快艇闯入古巴领海并开火 据央视消息，古巴内务部当地时间2月25日通报，边防警卫队当天在古巴比亚克拉拉省附近领海内发现 一艘在美国佛罗里达州注册的快艇违规闯入，双方发生交火，外方4名袭击者被打死、6人受伤。 通告显示，面对当前挑战，古巴重申其捍卫领海的决心。有关当局的调查仍在继续，以彻底查明事件真 相。 万斯：白宫正密切关注快艇"遭枪击"事件 美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔2月25日表示，美国对部分国家加征的"全球进口关税"税率将从新近实施的 10%升至15%或更高，但他未透露任何具体的贸易伙伴或其他细节。 美财政部发布涉伊朗最新制裁名单 据新华社报道，美国财政部25日宣布，对30多个实体、油轮及个人实施制裁，以打击美方所谓伊朗"非 法销售石油"以及弹道导弹和无人机生产。 美财政部网站发布公告称，受制裁名单包括4名个人、16个实体和12艘油轮，这些个人、实体和油轮涉 及"非法销售伊朗石油"以及伊朗弹道导弹和无人机等先进常规武器的生产。 美方此次发布涉伊朗最新制裁名单，正值美伊即将于26日在瑞士日内瓦举行第三轮间接谈判之时。美财 政部在公告中说，这是美方持续对伊朗"极限施压" ...

有知情人士披露，美国商务部正着手依据《1962年贸易扩展法》第232条款对大型电池、铸铁和铁配件、塑料管道、工业化学品以及电网和电信设备等行业 产品启动新调查，也就是"232调查"。该条款允许美国政府基于所谓"国家安全风险"征收关税。《华尔街日报》称，暂不清楚美国商务部何时正式宣布调 查，以及相关关税何时正式征收。 近日，美国最高法院裁定美国政府的大规模关税政策非法，多家美国媒体日前披露说，美国政府正准备援引其他法律条款对多个行业产品加征新的关税。 另外，美国贸易代表办公室也在着手依据《1974年贸易法》第301条款启动新的贸易调查，也就是所谓"301调查"，后续同样可能出台关税措施。该条款允许 美国政府对所谓"不公平贸易行为"征收关税。 美国多州要求联邦政府退还关税 此前，加利福尼亚州和伊利诺伊州也提出了类似要求。 全美超千家企业要求联邦政府退还非法关税 在美国最高法院作出相关裁决之后，截至24日，包括美国联邦快递公司、开市客、锐步等大型美国企业在内的上千家企业在美国国际贸易法院提起诉讼，要 求政府返还已缴纳的关税。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 美国最高法院20日公布裁决，认定美国《国际紧急经济权力法》没有授权 ...

据央视，特约评论员苏晓晖表示，美最高法院裁定美关税政策违法，这对于美国政府的关税战必然会产 生影响。很多西方媒体已经报道，称这一次的裁定对于特朗普的关税政策无异于一记重击。与此同时， 我们会看到，这也会对美国总统本人手中的权力会进行一定的设限。这一次的裁定之后，是不是意味着 此前打关税战，美国加征关税所获得的短期收益是否会被迫退回，现在仍然有待观察。但是这个时候我 们会看到，美国政府依然不甘心，对于关税战后续还会采取其他手段，即使不依靠国内法来大征"对等 关税"，来采取这种极端的关税措施，美国政府还可以依据所谓"301调查""232调查"等方式来实施加征 关税的最终目的。 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：安东 ...

当天，美国最高法院公布裁决，认定特朗普政府援引《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）实施的大规模 关税政策违法。随后，特朗普在记者会上作出上述表述。 他并在记者会上点明了其他征收关税的潜在途径，即《1962年贸易扩展法》第232条、《1974年贸易 法》第201条、301条以及《1930年关税法》第338条。 美国贸易代表格里尔在当天也表示，（基于）第122条的关税将于今日实施并签署。同时，301条款调查 在法律上具有极强持久性。 英国杜伦大学法学院副院长、跨国法教授兼全球政策研究所联合主任杜明对第一财经记者表示，特朗普 政府在关税问题上"骑虎难下"，只能继续亮牌。 杜明对记者强调，所谓可以立即使用的"122条"，允许美国政府在150天内对贸易伙伴征收高达15%的关 税，而在这150天内，要警惕特朗普政府就行业领域开启更多调查，譬如"301调查"等，而且更要警惕对 于122条的"反复使用"，而且据他查阅法条，目前并没有明确针对"反复使用"该法条的禁止条款。 为何宣布额外征收10%全球关税 简单而言，当美国在国际贸易中面临严重的支付赤字，或当美元在外汇市场上面临巨大的、可能失控的 贬值压力时，根据法律规定，美国总 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of the U.S. Supreme Court's upcoming decision on tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, highlighting the administration's contingency plans if the court rules against them [3][4]. Group 1: Supreme Court Decision - The U.S. Supreme Court will not make a ruling on the Trump administration's tariff case on January 9, with the next hearing scheduled for January 14 [3]. - The court is expected to announce its decision on the case by February 3, 2026, with indications that the Trump administration may lose [7][11]. Group 2: Contingency Plans - Trump administration officials have indicated they are prepared with a "Plan B" if the Supreme Court rules against the tariffs, suggesting the use of alternative legal frameworks [4][10]. - The administration has identified several legal tools, including the 1974 Trade Act Section 122, the "232 investigation," and the "301 investigation," to potentially impose tariffs without relying on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [13][14]. Group 3: Financial Implications - If the Supreme Court rules the tariffs illegal, the Trump administration could face a refund obligation ranging from $133.5 billion to $150 billion [10][11]. - The administration's statements suggest that even if they lose the case, they will find ways to continue imposing tariffs through different legal mechanisms [11][12]. Group 4: Legal Frameworks - The article outlines various legal frameworks available to the Trump administration for imposing tariffs, including: - IEEPA: Immediate effect under national emergency [14] - Section 301: Takes 9-12 months to implement [14] - Section 232: Related to national security, takes about 9 months [14] - Section 122: Allows for quick imposition of tariffs within 150 days [14] - Section 338: Can impose tariffs up to 50% for discriminatory practices [14][16].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court will not make a ruling on the Trump administration's tariff case on January 9, and the next scheduled hearing is on January 14. The administration has prepared alternative legal strategies in case of an unfavorable ruling regarding tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [1][2][5]. Group 1: Legal Framework and Tariff Strategies - The Trump administration has various legal tools available, including the 1974 Trade Act Section 122, Section 232 investigation, Section 301 investigation, and the 1930 Tariff Act Section 338, which can be utilized to impose tariffs if IEEPA is deemed invalid [3][11][13]. - The IEEPA is considered the most straightforward method for imposing tariffs, granting significant negotiation power to the President, but other methods, while more complex, can still achieve similar outcomes [6][7][8]. Group 2: Potential Financial Implications - If the Supreme Court rules against the Trump administration, the government may face a refund obligation ranging from $133.5 billion to $150 billion [9][10]. - The administration has indicated that even if tariffs are overturned, they will seek alternative methods to maintain tariff revenue, suggesting a strategy to continue imposing tariffs through different legal avenues [10][11]. Group 3: Immediate Actions and Future Considerations - The administration is expected to utilize the Section 122 of the Trade Act, which allows for the rapid imposition of tariffs up to 15% within 150 days, as an immediate response [13]. - Experts believe that while the Section 301 investigation is currently being used against certain countries, it is less likely to be employed immediately due to its lengthy process [13][14].

关税裁决引市场提前布局 金2026开年顺利走出强势形态 发布时间: 2026年1月9日 सेलिक 铝金从2025年5月讲入上涨通道以来整体跟随铂金 坛行,但2026年开年以来表现明显偏强,二者在高频数 据层面的分歧进一步放大。资金流向方面,把金 ETF 延 续流入态势,与铂金 ETF 的资金流出形成鲜明反差;市 场结构上,把金远期费率抬头,NYMEX 把金库存同步 累积,这一特征与铂金、白银的表现呈现分化。 我们认为今日把金的快速上涨,核心驱动力在于市 场提前交易美国关税政策调整的潜在预期。美国最高法 院即将对特朗普普遍关税的合法性作出裁决,若裁定该 关税违法,特朗普大概率将转向其他税收工具,此前市 场密切关注的232 调查落地概率将显著上升,把金作为 关键战略金属,加税预期下资金提前布局推升价格。 从中期逻辑看,铂把一季度趋势向上的判断并未改 变。从伦敦市场租借利率、远期费率及美国库存等高频 指标的整体水位观察,铂把现货端的结构性紧张格局并 未出现缓解迹象,现货紧平衡仍是支撑价格的核心基本 面。不过需要警惕的是, 铂把价格易跟随白银同步回撤, 且回撤幅度通常更大，叠加铂金日线双顶形态较为明显, 技术面上上 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to announce a ruling on tariffs on January 9, which could significantly impact the Trump administration's economic policies and represent a major legal setback for Trump since taking office [1][2] - If the Supreme Court rules against the Trump administration, it may lead to the potential refund of over $133.5 billion in tariffs collected from importers [1][6] - The tariffs in question were imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) without Congressional approval, and previous courts have deemed these policies illegal [2][3] Group 2 - The Trump administration has plans to reimpose tariffs if the ruling is unfavorable, potentially utilizing the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and the Trade Act of 1974 to justify new tariffs [4][5] - Legal experts indicate that the administration could invoke various trade laws to impose tariffs of up to 50% on certain goods, depending on the court's decision [5] - Major retailers and companies, including Costco and Revlon, have initiated lawsuits to reclaim tariffs paid, with approximately 40 legal briefs submitted to the Supreme Court opposing the Trump administration's tariff policies [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to make a ruling on tariffs on January 9, which could significantly impact the Trump administration's economic policies and potentially require the return of over $133.5 billion in tariffs if deemed illegal [3][12]. Group 1: Tariff Policy and Legal Context - The Trump administration implemented a series of tariffs using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) without Congressional approval [5]. - Previous rulings by the U.S. Court of Appeals and the U.S. International Trade Court deemed these tariffs illegal, prompting the Trump administration to appeal to the Supreme Court [6]. - The tariffs in question include "reciprocal tariffs" and those related to fentanyl [7]. Group 2: Potential Financial Implications - If the Supreme Court rules against the Trump administration, it may face the obligation to refund over $133.5 billion in tariffs collected since February 2025 [12]. - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported that the net revenue from tariffs reached a record $195 billion for the fiscal year 2025, with monthly revenues around $30 billion [12]. Group 3: Future Actions and Legal Challenges - In anticipation of a potential unfavorable ruling, the Trump administration is considering using other legal provisions, such as the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and the Trade Act of 1974, to impose new tariffs [8][9]. - Numerous companies, including Costco and Revlon, have initiated lawsuits to reclaim tariffs paid, with around 40 legal briefs submitted to the Supreme Court opposing the tariff policies [14].

Core Points - The USGS has updated its critical minerals list, adding copper, silver, and metallurgical coal, which may increase the likelihood of these materials being included in tariff policies [1] - This update is the most significant since the list was first published in 2018, with a total of 10 new minerals added, bringing the total to 60 [3] - The inclusion of these minerals is part of a broader strategy to secure the supply chain of critical minerals deemed essential for the US economy and national security [2][3] Summary by Category New Additions to the Critical Minerals List - The updated list now includes copper, silver, metallurgical coal, uranium, potassium, rhenium, silicon, and lead among others [1] - The total number of minerals on the list has increased to 60, which includes 15 rare earth elements [3] Implications for Tariff Policies - The inclusion of these minerals allows the US government to conduct Section 232 investigations under the guise of national security [1] - The strategic importance of these minerals is underscored by their critical role in manufacturing and potential supply chain disruptions [2] Market Reactions and Concerns - The addition of silver has raised concerns in the market, as any tariffs on silver could significantly impact the silver market [4][5] - The US imports nearly two-thirds of its silver, which is widely used in electronics, solar panels, jewelry, and investment [5] - Increased inventory levels of silver in New York have been observed, reaching historical highs due to tariff concerns [5]