当地时间22日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国正在对"进入美国的家具"进行"重大关税调查"，为针对特定 行业的征税奠定基础。 特朗普在社交媒体上发文称："该调查将在未来50天内完成，其他国家和地区进入美国的家具将被征收 关税，税率尚未确定。"他声称此举将重振美国国内家具制造商。 纽约盘后交易中，家具零售商股价暴跌。其中，Wayfair股价一度下跌10%，RH股价一度下跌9.9%， Arhaus股价一度下跌7.7%，Williams-Sonoma股价一度下跌6.7%。主要在北美生产家具的La-Z-Boy股价 则在收盘后上涨3.7%。 特朗普并未说明调查的具体实施方式。据报道，一位美国官员表示，此次调查是美国商务部根据《贸易 扩展法》第232条开展的木材和木料调查的一部分。 近期，多位法律专家对第一财经记者表示，相较于所谓"对等关税"，232调查等构成的高额行业关税更 值得警惕，因为这方面美国国内法律体系对总统的授权更为完整，且运用该手段时，由总统裁决税率。 家具价格已经上涨 此次，特朗普在宣布上述决定时表示："这将使家具业务重回北卡罗来纳州、南卡罗来纳州、密歇根州 以及全美各州。" 过去几个月，由于特朗普提高了越南等 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce is conducting an investigation into furniture imports under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which may lead to significant tariffs on imported furniture [1][6] - President Trump announced that the investigation will be completed within 50 days, and tariffs will be imposed on furniture from other countries, although the specific rates are yet to be determined [1][3] - Following the announcement, stock prices of major furniture retailers dropped significantly, with Wayfair down 10%, RH down 9.9%, and Williams-Sonoma down 6.7%, while La-Z-Boy, which primarily produces furniture in North America, saw a 3.7% increase [1] Group 2 - Furniture prices in the U.S. have been rising due to increased tariffs on major furniture importing countries, including Vietnam, leading to a notable increase in consumer prices for furniture and bedding [3][4] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for furniture and bedding has shown increases of 0.4% and 0.9% in June and July, respectively, following a period of significant deflation [3] - Other categories of furniture, such as office and outdoor furniture, have also experienced price increases, with the largest rise since May recorded at 1.5% [3] Group 3 - The investigation into furniture is part of a broader trend where the U.S. government is increasingly using Section 232 investigations to assess the impact of imports on national security, extending beyond just tariffs on steel and aluminum [6][9] - The current trend indicates a movement from raw materials to the entire supply chain, suggesting that the scope of investigations may widen to include various products and their derivatives [8][9] - Legal experts have noted that the authority granted to the President under Section 232 is extensive, with limited judicial review, allowing for broad implications for various industries [9]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the geopolitical dynamics involving the United States, Russia, and Ukraine, with a focus on trade relations between the U.S. and China. Core Points and Arguments 1. **U.S.-China Trade Relations**: The extension of the U.S.-China tariff agreement by 90 days indicates significant disagreements but also a willingness to negotiate further. Future trade tensions may be influenced by global economic conditions and domestic factors in both countries [4][10][12] 2. **U.S. Tariff Structure**: The U.S. has implemented a multi-tiered tariff policy on Chinese exports, including zero tariffs, reciprocal tariffs, industry-specific tariffs, and Section 301 investigations. The total additional tariffs currently stand at 40% [15][24] 3. **Russia's Territorial Demands**: Russia has proposed returning parts of occupied Ukrainian territory in exchange for security guarantees similar to NATO's Article 5. This reflects a hardline yet flexible diplomatic strategy [2][5][7] 4. **Trump Administration's Approach**: The Trump administration has shown flexibility in negotiations, emphasizing the need for a direct peace agreement rather than a mere ceasefire. This approach aims to balance U.S.-Russia relations while avoiding escalation [6][10] 5. **Ukrainian President's Dilemma**: Ukrainian President Zelensky faces pressure to accept territorial concessions for security guarantees, which is a challenging position given the sacrifices made by Ukraine during the ongoing conflict [8][9] 6. **European Leaders' Role**: European leaders have acted as mediators and supporters in the discussions, but their influence is limited due to internal challenges within Europe [9] 7. **Future U.S.-China Negotiations**: The U.S. and China are expected to engage in further negotiations regarding tariffs and trade policies, with potential adjustments to the current tariff structure based on outcomes from upcoming talks [12][26] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Impact of Semiconductor Investigations**: The upcoming results of the U.S. semiconductor 301 investigation could become a new point of contention in U.S.-China trade relations [4][20] 2. **Potential for Tripartite Talks**: Anticipated talks among the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine could either alleviate tensions or exacerbate market risks depending on their outcomes [14] 3. **Manufacturing Repatriation**: There are signs of progress in U.S. manufacturing repatriation, exemplified by TSMC's new factory in Arizona, which has begun to generate profits [23] 4. **Long-term Structural Issues**: Despite short-term negotiations, the underlying structural issues in U.S.-China relations are expected to persist, requiring time and patience to resolve [4][25]

2025.08. 08 本文字数：2616，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 图源 | 新华社 当地时间7日凌晨12点01分，特朗普政府关税进入新一阶段，对数十个贸易伙伴加征关税。 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普7月31日签署行政令，调整对多个贸易伙伴征收的所谓"对等关税"税率，具体税率从10%至41%不等，并宣布从当天起 的7天后开始实施。8月7日，该行政令生效。 根据耶鲁大学预算实验室的最新测算，如考虑截至7月31日实施的所有美国关税、外国对等反制措施的影响以及将于8月7日生效的所谓"对等关税"，特 朗普政府宣布的一系列关税壁垒会使美国平均关税税率达到17.3%，为1935年以来最高水平。 他解释道，在232调查方面，简单而言，美国国会给予总统的授权范围非常之大，几乎不受法院法律复核的限制；但EEPA的授权范围恐怕没这么大， 有一些权力或需要美国国会而非美国总统来行使。 特朗普关税新阶段 此前，美国已经公布了最新的所谓"对等关税"税率。 据新华社报道，根据白宫网站发布的行政令文本，列出的名单中，老挝和缅甸被征收的税率均为40%；瑞士39%；塞尔维亚35%；南非30%；印度和 突尼斯25%；越南 ...

当地时间7日凌晨12点01分，特朗普政府关税进入新一阶段，对数十个贸易伙伴加征关税。 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普7月31日签署行政令，调整对多个贸易伙伴征收的所谓"对等关税"税 率，具体税率从10%至41%不等，并宣布从当天起的7天后开始实施。8月7日，该行政令生效。 根据耶鲁大学预算实验室的最新测算，如考虑截至7月31日实施的所有美国关税、外国对等反制措施的 影响以及将于8月7日生效的所谓"对等关税"，特朗普政府宣布的一系列关税壁垒会使美国平均关税税率 达到17.3%，为1935年以来最高水平。 需要解释的是，目前特朗普政府的关税由针对各国和地区以及针对行业的两部分组成，前者的授权 为"国际紧急经济权力法（IEEPA）"，后者为美国商务部根据1962年《贸易扩展法》第232条款进行的 232调查。 6日，特朗普表示，美国将对进口半导体产品征收100%关税，但未说明具体实施细节。此前，他还表 示，将对药品征收关税，最高可至250%。 据第一财经记者查阅文献，未找到此前在232调查后美国开征的税率达到过此水平。北京广问律师事务 所合伙人管健对记者亦表示，历史上因232调查导致的惩罚性关税应该是没有达到过这么高 ...

2025.08. 06 本文字数：2508，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 冯迪凡 距离所谓"对等关税"生效仅剩1天时间，美国总统特朗普再次发动关税新攻势。 当地时间5日，特朗普表示，他将在未来24小时内"大幅提高"对印度的关税，对半导体和制药产品进口的关税则将在"未来一周左右"宣布。 他还表示，如果欧盟不履行义务，将对欧盟征收35%的关税。 目前，仍有贸易伙伴在尝试与特朗普政府达成协议。此前关税税率被定为39%的瑞士就是其中之一。据报道，瑞士联邦主席凯勒-祖特尔紧急前往美国 华盛顿，试图在最后期限前与美国政府达成协议。 道岳法律咨询反倾销财务专家严光普对第一财经记者表示，目前美墨加之间存在《美墨加协定》（USMCA),因此虽然明面上加拿大和墨西哥都面对着 至少30%的高税率，且墨西哥还处于暂停状态，但由于USMCA中覆盖的大量货品都处于豁免状态，因此加墨并非处于绝对不利地位，欧盟同美国之间 的协议也不会有太大变动，亟需谈成协议的包括印度等大型经济体，目前"更要关注的是针对行业的232关税。" 新华社图 对于欧盟，特朗普威胁，如果前者不履行投资义务，将征收35%的关税。 特朗普重申，在他同欧盟委员会 ...

格隆汇8月5日丨欧盟官员周二表示，欧盟商品进入美国时面临的15%关税是全包的，包含最惠国税率， 这与其他一些与美国有协议的国家不同。该官员表示，15%的税率适用于除钢铁和铝以外的所有商品。 目前，药品和半导体的关税为零，但如果这些商品因美国232调查而上调，关税也将不超过15%。此 15%的上限也适用于汽车及汽车零部件。汽车及汽车零部件则没有配额或限制。 （责任编辑：宋政 HN002） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, discussed the semiconductor content in the trade agreement with the European Union, indicating that results regarding the Section 232 investigation will be reached within the next two weeks [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US has initiated 232 investigations on aluminum and copper, and imposed tariffs on these two metals, which have had significant impacts on their prices, trade volumes, and industrial chains [3][26]. - For aluminum, tariffs have led to an increase in the premium of US local aluminum prices over LME aluminum prices, and a change in the import pattern, with a decrease in the import of aluminum products and a potential return of the aluminum processing industry [3][18][21]. - For copper, the implementation of 232 tariffs is expected to cause the Comex - LME copper price spread to widen, and there may be a situation of supply mismatch between the US and non - US regions. The return of the copper smelting industry faces many difficulties, while the copper products manufacturing industry may experience a return [27][34][40]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 US 232 Tariff Impact on Aluminum Analysis 3.1.1 US 232 Aluminum Tariff and Premium Review - In 2017, the US launched 232 investigations on imported steel and aluminum products. In 2018, it imposed a 25% tariff on imported steel and a 10% tariff on imported aluminum products, which increased the premium of US local aluminum prices over LME aluminum prices from 10% to 20% [3]. - In 2020, the scope of aluminum import tariffs was expanded. In 2025, the aluminum tariff was raised from 10% to 25%, and then to 50%, causing the premium of US aluminum prices over LME aluminum prices to rise from 20% to 60% [6][8]. 3.1.2 US Aluminum Production and Imports and Exports - In 2024, US electrolytic aluminum production was 690,000 tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from 2023. The main sources of imported aluminum ingots were Canada, South Africa, Argentina, and the UAE, with imports from Canada accounting for 78.8% [11]. - After the exemption for all importing countries was cancelled in March 2025, there was a short - term rush to import, but the annual import volume of aluminum ingots may remain stable [11][12]. 3.1.3 Increase in US Primary Aluminum Imports and Decrease in Aluminum Product Imports - After the Trump tariff policies in 2018 and 2020, the import volume of aluminum and aluminum products showed a short - term decline and then recovered. From 2023 to 2024, the total import volume of aluminum ingots remained stable, but the total import volume of all aluminum products decreased significantly, while exports remained relatively stable [18]. - After 2017, the import volume of aluminum products decreased significantly, while the import volume of un - wrought aluminum and alloys increased. The import volume of aluminum containers decreased, and the export volume increased, indicating a potential return of the US aluminum processing and manufacturing industries [21]. 3.2 US 232 Tariff Impact on Copper Analysis 3.2.1 US 232 Copper Tariff Review - In February 2025, Trump signed an executive order to initiate a 232 investigation on copper. On July 9, it was announced that a 50% tariff on copper would be imposed starting from August 1, 2025, due to the US's increasing dependence on foreign copper and insufficient smelting and refining capabilities [26][27]. 3.2.2 Widening of Comex - LME Spread - Before the copper tariff rate was determined, the Comex - LME spread gradually expanded from 0 to 10%. After the 25% aluminum tariff took effect in March 2025, the market's expectation of the copper tariff increased, and the spread reached a premium level of 16.8% [27]. - After July 8, 2025, when the 50% copper tariff was announced, the Comex copper price rose rapidly, and the Comex - LME spread exceeded $3000/ton. However, the premium of Comex over LME has been lower than the tariff level, and if there is no exemption, the spread is expected to rebound to over 40% [29][30]. 3.2.3 Transfer of Refined Copper and Supply Mismatch - The rush to import copper started in April 2025. In April and May, the US imported 200,000 tons and 210,000 tons of refined copper respectively, far exceeding the historical average. This led to a shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions and a decline in LME inventory [34]. - Due to the supply shortage in non - US regions from April to June, the market was in a back structure, and the inventory of the entire industrial chain was cleared. Even if supply increases after the implementation of the 232 tariff, the inventory increase may be lower than expected [35]. 3.2.4 Setback in Copper Smelting Return and Potential Breakthrough in Processing - The return of the US aluminum smelting industry has faced difficulties due to high electricity costs and old equipment. In contrast, the aluminum processing industry has shown signs of return [38]. - The return of the copper smelting industry also faces problems such as high restart costs of old equipment, high environmental protection costs, complex approvals, and low copper processing fees. The copper products manufacturing industry may experience a return, and Canada may be the most affected country [39][40]. 3.3 Summary - If there is no exemption for the 232 copper tariff, the Comex - LME spread will rebound to over 40%. If major importing countries are exempted, Comex copper may plummet, and the spread may fall to 0 - 10%. If non - major importing countries are exempted, the spread may remain at 30 - 40% [42]. - Limiting the export of copper concentrates and scrap copper while exempting refined copper from major importing countries may lead to a decline in the Comex - LME spread and a new round of copper price increases due to a shortage of global raw material supply [42]. - The copper smelting return has a long cycle and many difficulties, while the copper products manufacturing industry has a shorter construction cycle and is more likely to return, with an expected production cycle of about 2 years [44].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent initiation of two Section 232 investigations by the U.S. government concerning "drone systems and their components" and "polysilicon and its derivatives," highlighting the potential implications for national security and domestic industry protection [1][2]. Group 1: Investigations Overview - The investigations began on July 1 and are currently in the public comment phase, with stakeholders able to submit opinions until August 4 [2][7]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce is focusing on the domestic production capabilities of drone systems and polysilicon, assessing whether they can meet current and future demands [7][8]. - The investigations aim to evaluate the risks associated with foreign supply chains and the concentration of imports from a limited number of suppliers [7][8]. Group 2: Implications for Domestic Industry - The investigations indicate a shift in U.S. policy from upstream basic materials to downstream high-tech applications, which may signal a broader trend of protectionism [3][4]. - The products under investigation lack comparative advantages for the U.S., suggesting that any tariffs imposed could harm domestic supply chains [4][8]. - The article notes that previous Section 232 investigations, such as those on steel and aluminum, followed a similar logic, where tariffs were used to protect domestic markets and stimulate local production [9][10]. Group 3: Broader Context of Section 232 Investigations - A total of 11 products are currently under Section 232 investigations, including steel, aluminum, automotive products, semiconductors, and more [12]. - The U.S. has already implemented significant tariffs, such as a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum and a 25% tariff on automotive products valued at $153 billion [13]. - The investigations are framed within a national security context, where economic security is equated with national security, reflecting concerns over industrial decline and its socio-political ramifications [16][18].