一觉醒来，特朗普又上演了一出 "极限拉扯" 的戏码。 当地时间 8 月 11 日，就在中美经贸 "休战" 期限到期的前一天，他磨磨蹭蹭地签下了延长关税暂停期的行政令，把这 "休战" 状态又续了 90 天。 这操作就像玩游戏快 Game Over 时突然按了暂停键，既想喘口气，又舍不得放下手里的控制器。 更有意思的是，签完字的他转头就向中国喊话，希望咱们多买美国大豆，最好能把订单翻四倍。这前倨后恭的样子，活像个刚跟你吵完架，转头又求你借他 块橡皮的小学生。 关税 "暂停键"：特朗普的缓兵之计 要说这关税暂停期，原本 8 月 12 日就到期了。要是特朗普不签字，那中美之间的关税就得回到今年 4 月的 "高烧" 状态 —— 美国对华关税飙到 145%，中 国对美关税也得升到 125%。这可不是闹着玩的，就像给两国贸易的血管上扎了根大针头，血都得往外飙。 美国商家早就急得像热锅上的蚂蚁，要是关税真涨到那地步，进口的中国商品价格得翻着跟头往上涨，货架上的东西卖不出去，最后哭的还是美国老百姓。 特朗普这最后一刻的签字，看着像是让步，实则是打得一手 "缓兵之计" 的牌。美财长贝森特说得明明白白："得先按美国的标准来，让制造 ...

据最新消息，皮尤研究中心当地时间14日发布的调查结果显示，超六成美国民众反对美国总统特朗普的关税政策。调 查还显示，特朗普整体支持率为38%，61%受访者反对关税政策，较就任初期下降9个百分点。 高盛集团日前发布研报称，美国消费者将承担美国关税政策成本中越来越大的份额。对此，特朗普回应称，高盛经济学 家"应该换人"，集团首席执行官应该改行做"打碟师（DJ）"。 超六成民众反对特朗普关税 据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月14日，据皮尤研究中心发布的调查结果，特朗普的关税政策及"大而美"税收与支出法案在 全美的反对率均高于支持率。61%受访者反对关税政策，仅38%支持；46%反对"大而美"法案，32%支持，另有23%未表 态。 调查显示，53%美国人认为特朗普让联邦政府运作变得更糟，27%认为改善，20%认为变化好坏参半。特朗普整体支持率 为38%，较就任初期下降9个百分点，其中对其诚实度、关心普通人及是否是良好榜样的评价均比去年下滑。 在具体议题上，受访者对特朗普在贸易谈判（47%有信心）和移民（46%）上的信心高于外交（43%）与医疗（38%）。 在俄乌冲突决策方面，仅40%表示有信心，较去年下降5个百分点。 此 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 26% increase in sales for Q2, reaching $387 million, while raw material costs only increased by 6%, leading to improved margins with raw material costs as a percentage of sales declining from 78% to 66% [25] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 improved significantly to $22 million from a loss of $27 million in Q1, marking an improvement of $48 million [25][26] - The company maintained a net cash positive position at the end of the quarter with a balance of $10 million, down from $19 million at the end of Q1 [32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Silicon metal revenue increased by 24% to $130 million, driven by a 23% increase in shipments [26][27] - Silicon-based alloys revenue rose 23% to $112 million, supported by a 24% increase in shipments, while pricing slightly decreased by 1% [29] - Manganese-based alloys saw the strongest improvement with revenue up 43% to $106 million, driven by a 31% increase in volumes and a 9% increase in average selling prices [30][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - European silicon metal prices declined by approximately 20% in the past month due to a substantial increase in imports from China, which pressured the market and reduced EU producers' market share from 40% to about 15% [9] - The U.S. market experienced a significant increase in ferrosilicon sales, with the highest volume recorded in the past eight quarters, supported by trade actions against imports from Russia, Kazakhstan, Brazil, and Malaysia [12][35] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on operational efficiency and cost control while navigating a challenging market environment, with plans to optimize production by switching furnaces from silicon metal to ferrosilicon [10][15] - The company aims to leverage its vertical supply chain integration to benefit from trade restrictions in the U.S. and Europe, enhancing its competitive position [16] - The company is optimistic about 2026, expecting improvements from trade decisions and supply curtailments, which should enhance the operating environment [35] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about the elevated uncertainty in global trade policies and tariffs, leading to the withdrawal of the 2025 guidance [5][34] - The company is optimistic about the potential benefits from EU safeguard measures and U.S. trade actions, which are expected to improve market dynamics [11][35] - Management highlighted the importance of NATO's increased defense spending, which is anticipated to bolster the steel and aluminum industries, benefiting the company [14] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 600,000 shares for $2 million during the quarter and paid $2.6 million in dividends [10][32] - The company joined the Russell 2000 and 3000 indexes, increasing visibility among institutional investors [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Why was the annual EBITDA guidance withdrawn? - Management indicated that the extreme uncertainty in global trade tariffs and the significant import of silicon metal from China at low prices made it difficult to project future volumes and prices, leading to the decision to withdraw guidance [39][41] Question: Is there a risk that EBITDA could revert negative before the end of the year? - Management stated that while they cannot predict the exact amount of EBITDA, they have been able to deliver positive EBITDA despite the current uncertainties [42] Question: Can you discuss the exposure to U.S. tariffs and implications for the supply chain? - Management confirmed that there are currently no impacts on the Becancour facility from U.S. tariffs, and they have secured supply for critical raw materials [44] Question: What is the expected impact of EU safeguards on volumes? - Management noted that they are engaged with the European community regarding safeguards and expect a preliminary decision in August and a final decision in November, but they refrained from speculating on the specific impacts at this stage [51][52] Question: What is the volume impact of switching furnaces from silicon metal to ferrosilicon? - Management confirmed that the switch was made due to increased demand for ferrosilicon in the U.S., positively impacting EBITDA [56] Question: Any updates on the Coorshell investment? - Management highlighted that the new pilot plant for Coorshell has started operating smoothly, with promising results in cycle efficiency, and they are in the process of assembling cells for major OEMs [60]

对精炼铜金属免征进口关税，却对铝征收50%的高额关税，特朗普政府为何为两种金属态度迥然不同？ 在这背后，铜业巨头Freeport-McMoRan等主要生产商游说关税可能削弱美国铜业生产，以及精炼铜对美国制造业 的重要性，促成了这一豁免政策。而美国铝业生产商则一直大力支持关税政策，认为这对保护美国铝冶炼业产能 至关重要。 此外，电力成本也是重要影响因素之一，不同的电力成本结构，正在决定各金属行业的贸易保护程度。 铝业积极游说获政策支持 据媒体周二报道，美国铝业生产商Century Aluminum一直大力支持关税政策，认为这对保护美国铝冶炼业产能至 关重要。该公司在6月发布的声明中表示： Century Aluminum公司赞赏特朗普总统通过将铝关税提高至50%，坚定不移地捍卫关键金属在美国生 产。 电力成本劣势已导致美国铝冶炼产能大幅萎缩。目前美国仅有4家活跃的铝冶炼厂，而1995年时有23家。根据美国 地质调查局数据，美国初级铝产量从1995年的335万公吨下降至2015年的160万公吨，去年进一步降至67万公吨。 这一产能衰退为铝业争取贸易保护提供了有力论据，也解释了为何铝金属能够获得50%的高额关税保护 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's steel exports showed a mixed performance in the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in certain categories like steel billets and construction materials, while flat steel exports faced pressure due to rising trade barriers and anti-dumping measures from various countries [1][3][12]. Export Performance - In June 2025, China's steel export volume was 9.68 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.5% but a year-on-year increase of 10.7%. Cumulatively, 58.15 million tons were exported in the first half of the year, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.2% and a year-on-year growth of 9.2% [1]. - Asia remained the largest market for China's steel exports, with a total of 38.09 million tons exported to the region in the first half of 2025, of which 16.88 million tons went to Southeast Asia, accounting for 65.5% of exports to Asia, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [1]. Regional Demand - Exports to countries along the Belt and Road Initiative showed significant growth, with exports to Africa reaching 7.94 million tons (up 33.3% year-on-year) and to Latin America at 7.79 million tons (up 21% year-on-year) [2]. - The demand in Africa and Latin America is driven by large infrastructure projects, with local production capacity insufficient to meet the needs [2]. Trade Barriers Impact - China's flat steel exports faced challenges, with a total of 36.32 million tons exported in the first half of 2025, while flat steel exports decreased by 0.4% year-on-year. The decline in specific products like hot-rolled thin wide steel strips was significant, with a 25.3% drop [3][6]. - Vietnam imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese hot-rolled products, leading to a 42.4% decrease in exports to Vietnam in the first half of 2025 [4]. Export Structure Changes - The export structure showed a clear divergence, with flat steel exports declining while steel billets, rebar, and wire rod saw substantial increases. Steel billets exports surged by 300.3%, driven by overseas infrastructure investments [6][12]. - The first half of 2025 saw a notable increase in exports of special steel bars, reaching 1.4 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 54.93%, attributed to strong demand in Southeast Asia and Latin America [10][11]. Future Outlook - The overall trend indicates that while flat steel exports may continue to face challenges due to trade barriers, the demand for steel billets and construction materials is expected to remain strong, particularly in emerging markets along the Belt and Road Initiative [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, focusing on energy metals, minor metals, and rare earth investment opportunities [5][7]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry index increased by 1.78% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking 11th among 31 sectors [2][13]. - Energy metals and minor metals showed significant gains, with increases of 6.32% and 6.17% respectively, while precious metals experienced a notable decline of 4.31% [2][19]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions and tariff policies on market sentiment, suggesting a continuation of weak fluctuations in the short term [5]. Summary by Sections Market Review (2025.7.21-2025.8.01) - The non-ferrous metals industry index rose by 1.78%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [2][13]. - Energy metals and minor metals led the gains, while precious metals saw a decline [2][19]. Metal Prices - COMEX gold closed at $3,416.00 per ounce, up 1.80% over two weeks; COMEX silver fell to $37.11 per ounce, down 3.44% [3][20]. - Black tungsten concentrate prices rose by 7.78% to 194,000 CNY per ton, while LME tin prices decreased by 0.42% to $33,215 per ton [3][20]. Important Events - The U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products, leading to a significant drop in copper prices [4][29]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on energy metals, minor metals, and rare earths due to potential opportunities and policy shifts [5][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the tensions between the United States and India regarding trade policies, particularly in light of India's purchase of Russian oil amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and highlights India's stance on maintaining its economic interests and energy security [2][3]. Group 1: U.S.-India Trade Relations - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods starting August 1, with potential additional punitive tariffs due to India's procurement of Russian energy [3]. - Trump accused India of profiting from the resale of Russian oil, threatening to significantly increase tariffs, although he did not specify the amount [3]. Group 2: India's Response - India's Ministry of External Affairs stated that the accusations against India are unfair and emphasized that the country will take necessary measures to protect its national interests and economic security [2]. - The statement clarified that India's purchase of Russian oil was a "passive choice" due to the disruption of traditional supply sources following the conflict, and that the U.S. had previously supported India's actions to stabilize the global energy market [2]. Group 3: Comparative Trade Data - The article notes that the trade volume between the EU and Russia is significantly larger than that of India, with the EU's trade with Russia reaching €67.5 billion in 2024 and service trade at €17.2 billion in 2023, far exceeding India's trade with Russia during the same period [2]. - In 2024, the EU's imports of liquefied natural gas from Russia hit a historical high of 16.5 million tons, indicating a broader reliance on Russian energy among Western nations [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on August 4, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, precious metals futures, base metals futures, energy futures, chemical futures, and agricultural product futures [2]. - The report also provides an analysis of the previous day's (August 1) market performance of these futures contracts and gives monthly trend forecasts for some futures contracts in August 2025 [17][47]. - It summarizes recent macro - economic news and policies, which may have an impact on the futures market [8]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Information and Trading Tips - From August 8, 2025, the interest income of newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT. Bonds issued before August 8 will be exempt from VAT until maturity [8]. - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen the implementation and supervision of interest rate policies, and increase financing support for key areas [8]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will promote the implementation of measures to stabilize employment and the economy, and is accelerating the revision of the Price Law to regulate market price order. The third batch of 69 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for consumer goods trade - in has been issued, and the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan will be issued in October [9]. - The "Financial Infrastructure Supervision and Administration Measures" will come into effect on October 1, 2025, focusing on the business supervision of financial infrastructure [9]. - Natural persons purchasing national bonds with a monthly quota of no more than 1 million yuan will enjoy a VAT exemption on interest income until December 31, 2027 [9]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will accelerate the approval of new policy - based financial instruments, and government bond issuance is expected to speed up, which is expected to boost infrastructure investment in the second half of the year [9]. - In the first half of 2025, the sales revenue of national enterprises maintained stable growth, and the manufacturing industry showed steady improvement, with significant effects of the "two new" policies [10]. - Multiple departments will introduce policies to release domestic demand potential, promote innovation integration, and manage over - capacity in key industries [10]. - The US non - farm payrolls in July increased by only 73,000, far less than expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The market anticipates a Fed rate cut in October [11]. - US President Trump plans to impose reciprocal tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on countries or regions that have not reached agreements with the US, effective August 7, 2025 [11]. - The US trade representative stated that the new round of tariffs imposed by Trump will not be adjusted [12]. - Trump pressured the Fed to cut interest rates significantly and threatened to take over if the Fed does not act [12]. - Some Fed officials are concerned about the impact of the delay in interest rate cuts on the labor market [12]. - Fed official Bostic believes that employment data shows a slowdown in the economy but will not change the FOMC's decision this week [12]. - Fed official Kugler will leave office early, creating uncertainty about the Fed's future leadership [13]. - New York Fed President Williams expects the US economic growth to slow to about 1% this year [13]. - As of July 31, 2025, the average effective tariff rate on US imports reached 18.3%, the highest since 1934, which has been criticized [13]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 48, a nine - month low [13]. 3.2 Commodity Futures - Related Information - On August 1, most domestic commodity futures closed lower, with black - series, energy, and chemical products mostly falling, while some oilseeds rose [14]. - On August 1, international precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 2.01% and COMEX silver futures up 1.07% [14]. - On August 1, international oil prices fell due to increased crude oil inventories and production increase expectations. US WTI crude oil futures fell 2.89%, and Brent crude oil futures fell 3.04% [15]. - On August 1, most London base metals closed higher, except for zinc which fell [15]. - On August 1, agricultural product futures on the Chicago Board of Trade and the Intercontinental Exchange closed lower [16]. - OPEC + agreed to significantly increase oil production in September, reversing the 2.2 million - barrel - per - day production cut in 2023 [16]. - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will strengthen foreign exchange situation monitoring and management to maintain the stability of the foreign exchange market [16]. - On August 1, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down, and the US dollar index fell [17]. 3.3 Futures Market Analysis and Forecast 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - On August 1, the CSI 300股指期货主力合约 IF2509, SSE 50股指期货主力合约 IH2509, and CSI 500股指期货主力合约 IC2509 all showed a downward trend, while the CSI 1000股指期货主力合约 IM2509 showed a slight upward trend [17][18][19]. - It is expected that on August 4, 2025,股指期货 will fluctuate and consolidate. In August 2025, the four major股指期货 contracts are expected to fluctuate strongly [24][23]. 3.3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On August 1, the ten - year treasury bond futures主力合约 T2509 and the thirty - year treasury bond futures主力合约 TL2509 both showed a weakening trend [41][44]. - It is expected that on August 4, 2025, the T2509 and TL2509 contracts will fluctuate strongly [43][47]. 3.3.3 Precious Metals Futures - On August 1, the gold futures主力合约 AU2510 showed a slight upward trend, and the silver futures主力合约 AG2510 showed a downward trend [47][56]. - It is expected that on August 4, 2025, both the AU2510 and AG2510 contracts will fluctuate strongly. In August 2025, both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [48][57]. 3.3.4 Base Metals Futures - On August 1, most base metal futures showed a mixed performance. For example, the copper futures主力合约 CU2509 showed a slight upward trend, while the aluminum futures主力合约 AL2509 showed a downward trend [60][65]. - It is expected that on August 4, 2025, most base metal futures will continue their previous trends, with some showing weak fluctuations and some showing strong fluctuations. In August 2025, most are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [60][65][74]. 3.3.5 Energy Futures - On August 1, the crude oil futures主力合约 SC2509 showed a downward trend. - It is expected that on August 4, 2025, the SC2509 contract will fluctuate weakly. In August 2025, it is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [117]. 3.3.6 Chemical Futures - On August 1, most chemical futures showed a downward trend, such as PTA, PVC, and methanol futures. - It is expected that on August 4, 2025, most chemical futures will continue to fluctuate weakly [121][124][126]. 3.3.7 Agricultural Product Futures - On August 1, the soybean meal futures主力合约 M2509 showed a slight upward trend, while the palm oil futures主力合约 P2509 showed a slight upward but weak trend. - It is expected that on August 4, 2025, the M2509 contract will fluctuate strongly, and the P2509 contract will fluctuate weakly [129][133].

（文章来源：央视新闻） 人民财讯8月2日电，巴西首都巴西利亚、里约热内卢等地8月1日爆发抗议活动，反对美国对巴西商品加 征关税、干涉巴西司法事务、侵犯巴西主权。 美国方面此前在宣布将对从巴西商品加征关税的同时，要求巴西停止对前总统博索纳罗的司法调查，引 发巴方强烈不满。 ...

| 98.8489 前收 100.0654 开盘 100.0560 -1.2165 - -1.22% - 卖出 - 98.8489 - 买入 - 98.8489 | | --- | | 最高 100.2588 今年来 -8.88% 20 日 1.78% | | 最低 98.6656 10 日 0.21% 60 日 -1.77% | | 分时 五日 日K 周K 月K 更多 ◎ | 8月首个交易日，美国股市承压下行，投资者在消化疲软的经济数据与特朗普总统更新关税政策的双重打击下纷纷减仓。 截至发稿，道琼斯工业平均指数大跌520多点，跌幅达1.2%；标普500指数亦大跌1.3%；科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数跌超1.6%。 此外，美元指数大跌1.2%至98.84，美债10年收益率下滑13bp。 与此同时，特朗普总统继续向美联储主席鲍威尔发难。他在一则言辞激烈的帖子中敦促美联储立刻降息。"太迟太少。杰罗姆'太迟'鲍威尔简直是个灾 难，快把利率降下来！" 市场的主要压力来自最新公布的7月就业报告。数据显示，非农就业岗位仅新增7.3万个，远低于经济学家此前预期的10万个。更令人担忧的是，前两个月 的就业数据被大幅下修：6月 ...