1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include a rebound in overall supply pressure, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4940 - 5010 [12][13][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Positive Factors**: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [12]. - **Negative Factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [12]. - **Main Logic**: The overall supply pressure is strong, and domestic demand recovery is sluggish [13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply Side**: In June 2025, PVC production was 1991340 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.40%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.97%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 338190 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 114390 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.62%. Supply pressure decreased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with a small increase in production scheduling [7]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream开工率 was 41.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.77 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 34.55%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 37.67%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.83 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 72.22%, unchanged month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 73.58%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain weak [7]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 445.08 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 19.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 620.57 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 10.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2630.35 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in profit of 1.30%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8]. - **Basis**: On July 15, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 45 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral [9]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 381590 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.21%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 296790 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.61%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 84800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.22%. Social inventory was 392700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.25%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 6.18 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32%. It is neutral [9]. - **Market**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20. It is bullish [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increased. It is bearish [9]. - **Expectation**: The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is strengthening, and the overall cost is strengthening. This week, supply pressure decreased. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase. The overall inventory is at a neutral level. Current demand may remain weak. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. The PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4940 - 5010 [9]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - Provides yesterday's market overview data, including prices, price changes, and inventory changes of different types of PVC enterprises, downstream开工率, and profit and cost data [16]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - Displays the historical trend chart of the basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price from 2022 to 2025 [19]. 3.5 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - Displays the historical trend chart of the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread of PVC futures from 2024 to 2025 [25]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - **Lancoke**: Shows the price, cost - profit,开工率, inventory, and daily output trends of Lancoke from 2020 to 2025 [28]. - **Calcium Carbide**: Displays the price, cost - profit,开工率, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide from 2019 to 2025 [31]. - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: Presents the price, production, and monthly production trends of liquid chlorine and raw salt from 2020 to 2025 [33]. - **Caustic Soda**: Shows the price, cost - profit,开工率, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, double - ton price difference, and inventory trends of caustic soda from 2019 to 2025 [36][39]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - Displays the capacity utilization rate, production profit, daily output, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production trends of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method from 2018 to 2025 [41][43]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - **Sales and Pre - sales**: Shows the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, and weekly production - sales ratio trends of PVC from 2019 to 2025 [47][48]. - **Downstream开工率**: Displays the开工率 trends of PVC profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin from 2019 to 2025 [50]. - **Paste Resin**: Presents the profit, cost, monthly production, and apparent consumption trends of paste resin from 2019 to 2025 [53]. - **Real Estate and Infrastructure**: Displays the investment completion amount, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area of real estate, as well as the social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year trends from 2019 to 2025 [56][59]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - Displays the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 [61]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - Shows the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB price difference (Tianjin - Taiwan), and vinyl chloride import price difference (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) trends from 2018 to 2025 [63]. 3.11 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Presents the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from May 2024 to June 2025, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Cautiously bearish [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC faces high supply and inventory pressure with weak domestic demand, lacking positive fundamental support and under pressure [3][4] - Caustic soda's overall supply - demand fundamentals are expected to be weak, with insufficient upward price drivers [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: PVC main contract closed at 4758 yuan/ton (-35); East China basis -98 yuan/ton (-5); South China basis -8 yuan/ton (+35) [1] - Spot price: East China calcium carbide method quoted at 4660 yuan/ton (-40); South China calcium carbide method quoted at 4750 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: PVC calcium carbide method gross profit -621 yuan/ton (+37); PVC ethylene method gross profit -516 yuan/ton (+10); PVC export profit 13.8 dollars/ton (+6.1) [1] - Inventory and开工: PVC factory inventory 38.7 tons (-1.9); PVC social inventory 37.8 tons (-2.0); PVC calcium carbide method operating rate 73.19% (-2.33%); PVC ethylene method operating rate 72.90% (+2.84%); PVC operating rate 73.11% (-0.90%) [1] - Downstream orders: Production enterprise pre - sales volume 60.3 tons (-2.9) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: SH main contract closed at 2456 yuan/ton (+7); Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda basis 294 yuan/ton (-7) [1] - Spot price: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda quoted at 880 yuan/ton (+0); Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda quoted at 1420 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: Shandong caustic soda single - product profit 1759 yuan/ton (+0); Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) 935.8 yuan/ton (+0.0); Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) 313.78 yuan/ton (-50.00); Northwest chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) 1425.55 yuan/ton (+20.20) [2] - Inventory and开工: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory 40.09 tons (-1.50); Flake caustic soda factory inventory 2.95 tons (+0.03); Caustic soda operating rate 84.10% (+1.50%) [2] - Downstream开工: Alumina operating rate 78.10% (+1.43%); Printing and dyeing East China operating rate 63.23% (+0.00%); Viscose staple fiber operating rate 80.30% (-0.35%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: New maintenance scale is small, previous maintenance devices continue to stop, PVC operating rate declines slightly month - on - month, but there are few planned maintenance in the later period, and PVC production is at a high level in the same period. With the expected new capacity put into production from June to July, supply pressure is still high [3] - Demand side: PVC downstream product enterprises' operating rate is at a low level in the same period, PVC pipes, profiles and films' operating rate is weakly stable, downstream market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices, and the spot price center of PVC is weakly volatile. Demand is weak [3] - Cost side: The upstream raw material calcium carbide market is weakly stable, and the cost - side support for PVC is insufficient [3] Caustic Soda - Supply side: Some new maintenance enterprises are added, and previous maintenance enterprises resume production one after another. The overall operating rate of caustic soda rises slightly month - on - month, but manufacturers' loads mostly run at a high level supported by profits. With the expected new capacity of caustic soda put into production from June to July, supply pressure is still high [3] - Demand side: The spot price of alumina, the main downstream product, continues to rise, and the production profit of the alumina industry is significantly repaired. The reduction of production may weaken, and the expectation of some capacity resumption is strong, which may support the caustic soda market price in the short term. Non - aluminum downstream terminal purchases are cautious, mainly replenishing on - demand, and the operating rate of non - aluminum terminals such as viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing is still at a low level in the same period, and non - aluminum demand remains weak [3] Strategy - PVC: Cautiously bearish. High inventory and supply pressure continue, domestic demand is weak, and the price is expected to run weakly at the bottom in the short term [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral. The overall supply - demand fundamentals are expected to be weak, and the price may continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment continuity and alumina capacity resumption progress [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core View of the Report - PVC will experience short - term fluctuations and face pressure in the later stage. Although there are some positive factors such as macro - level Sino - US phased reconciliation and short - term terminal product export rush, the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to alleviate, and high - price transactions are slowing down [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Fundamental Tracking - As of the report, the 09 - contract futures price of PVC is 5041, the East China spot price is 4880, the basis is - 161, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 103. The domestic PVC spot price has been raised this week. Due to positive macro expectations, rising industrial products, and improved export inquiries and deliveries of products, the price has increased. However, high - price transaction sentiment has weakened, and market sentiment is more watchful. Currently, the ex - warehouse spot price of calcium carbide - based type 5 PVC in East China is 4800 - 4950 yuan/ton, and the ethylene - based price has stabilized at 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton [1]. Market Condition Analysis - **Positive factors**: At the macro - level, Sino - US phased reconciliation is sentimentally positive, and short - term terminal product export rush supports the market [2]. - **Negative factors**: From a fundamental perspective, Northwest chlor - alkali integration still has profits, and the high - production and high - inventory structure of PVC is difficult to alleviate. The high - production pattern is difficult to change in the short term because the maintenance volume in the first quarter of PVC was low, and high - profit caustic soda demand in 2025 supports the chlor - alkali industry to offset losses in PVC. Moreover, there will be more new capacity put into production, especially in June. The high - inventory pressure persists, and export demand can only relieve it temporarily. In 2025, the PVC export market faces greater competition pressure, affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification. Domestic demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is still weak year - on - year, and enterprises have low inventory - building willingness [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PVC is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3][4].