1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1烧碱 - The current situation of caustic soda is weak, but the future expectations are not pessimistic. The market may show wide - range fluctuations. The current upward pressure on caustic soda comes from exports and alumina. Although there is an optimistic expectation of alumina production in the future, the current situation of high inventory and low profit in the alumina industry restricts the rise of caustic soda prices. Before the start of alumina production and the improvement of exports, the upward driving force is insufficient [5]. 2.2 PVC - PVC is expected to show range - bound fluctuations. The high - production and high - inventory structure of PVC is difficult to change in the medium - term. The export market is under policy interference, and the growth rate may slow down. Although there are some short - term positive factors, the overall trend still faces pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint Overview 3.1.1 Caustic Soda - Supply: The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 81.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%. There are production cuts and shutdowns in Northwest, Central, East, and North China [5]. - Demand: In the alumina sector, high production and high inventory will continue to compress profits. Although the current production willingness is high, there is a problem of regional supply - demand mismatch. Non - aluminum demand has increased month - on - month, and there will be a phased peak - season restocking in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. Exports have improved recently, but the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is still weak [5]. - Viewpoint: The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong is under pressure, but the optimistic expectation of alumina production in the future cannot be falsified in the short term. The futures market is in a game between reality and expectation, showing wide - range fluctuations [5]. - Valuation: The marginal device cost in Shandong is calculated to be 2,188 yuan/ton [5]. - Strategy: For single - side trading, pay attention to downstream restocking in mid - to late September and pre - production restocking of alumina after October. Do not participate in inter - period and inter - variety trading [5]. 3.1.2 PVC - Supply: The high - production structure of PVC is difficult to change in the short term. The maintenance volume is lower than that in 2023, and there will be more new capacity put into production in the future, especially in September, which will bring greater supply pressure [7]. - Demand: The competition pressure in the PVC export market has increased in 2025. Exports will still be affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification, and the growth rate of export demand may slow down in the second half of the year. Domestic demand related to the real estate industry is still weak, and enterprises' willingness to restock is low [7]. - Viewpoint: The PVC market is expected to show range - bound fluctuations. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and exports are subject to policy interference, so the medium - term trend still faces pressure [7]. - Valuation: The basis is weak, the month - to - month spread is weak, and the number of warehouse receipts continues to rise. The valuation is moderately high [7]. - Strategy: For single - side trading, the 01 contract has an upper pressure range of 5,000 - 5,150 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 4,800 - 4,850 yuan/ton. Do not participate in inter - period and inter - variety trading [7]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - Price: The price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is about 2,500 yuan/ton. The basis of caustic soda 01 is weakening, and the 11 - 1 spread is also weakening [12][14]. - Spread: In 2025, caustic soda exports are expected to increase by at least 30% year - on - year, with annual exports possibly exceeding 4 million tons. The export market still has support, and the export profit has expanded. The regional arbitrage space between Shandong and Guangdong has increased, and the price difference between flake and liquid caustic soda is at a high level. However, the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is lower than the evaporation cost, which is negative for caustic soda [16][23][31]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Market Structure: Production is declining, and inventory is rising. The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 81.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more nationwide is 378,300 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 6.02% and a year - on - year increase of 18.22% [35][36][37]. - Planned Maintenance: Pay attention to the maintenance in Shandong and Hebei in October. Many enterprises have maintenance plans, which will affect the supply of caustic soda [41]. - Capacity Expansion: In 2025, the actual capacity expansion of caustic soda will be weaker than expected, with a capacity increase of about 2 - 3%. Although there are still many new capacities planned to be put into production, considering the continuous losses in chlorine - consuming downstream industries, especially PVC, the overall production may be lower than expected [42][45]. - Profit: The weak price of liquid chlorine has led to a decline in the overall profit of caustic soda. The decline in electricity prices has a significant impact on the cost of caustic soda [46][49]. 3.4 Caustic Soda Demand - Alumina: The alumina industry is operating at a high capacity, but inventory is rising, and profits are declining. At the end of the year, the production of new alumina plants will drive up the rigid demand and inventory of caustic soda, especially the tank - filling demand before production, which will lead to a significant increase in the short - term inventory demand for caustic soda [75][81]. - Pulp: The pulp industry is experiencing continuous capacity expansion, and demand is gradually shifting to the peak season. The operating rate of the finished paper industry has increased month - on - month [83][89]. - Other Industries: The operating rate of viscose staple fiber has increased, the printing and dyeing industry has recovered, and the short - term demand has increased month - on - month. The water treatment industry has stable operations, and the output of the ternary precursor industry has increased [94][96][98]. 3.5 PVC Price and Spread - The basis of PVC fluctuates, and the 1 - 5 spread is weakly fluctuating [105]. 3.6 PVC Supply and Demand - Supply: The operating rate of PVC production enterprises has decreased month - on - month. There are still seasonal maintenance plans in September - October 2025. There will be 2.2 million tons of new PVC capacity put into production in 2025, with more concentrated production in the second half of the year [110][114][115]. - Profit: The integrated plants in the Northwest have acceptable profits. The chlor - alkali industry chain's long - term trend of using caustic soda to subsidize chlorine makes it difficult for PVC to significantly reduce production due to losses [117][119]. - Inventory: PVC production enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory is increasing [121]. - Demand: The terminal demand in the real estate industry has not significantly recovered, but the overall operating rate of PVC downstream industries has increased month - on - month [126][132]. - Export: The export expectation of PVC has weakened. Although the cumulative exports from January to July increased year - on - year, the future export may be affected by India's anti - dumping policy [138][141]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of PVC warehouse receipts continues to rise [142].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental aspect of PVC is bearish, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price, high overall inventory, and potentially continued weak demand [6][12]. - The supply pressure has increased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with production likely to increase. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4930 - 4990 [9]. - The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method has weakened, and the overall cost has declined. The production schedule may face pressure [8]. - There are positive factors such as supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and favorable export conditions. However, there are also negative factors including a rebound in overall supply pressure, persistently high inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - The fundamental aspect is bearish, the basis shows the spot price at a discount to the futures price, the inventory is high, the market trend is neutral, and the main - position holding is net short with a reduction in short positions [6][12]. - Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and favorable export conditions. Negative factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [14]. - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the sluggish recovery of domestic demand [15]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 327,885 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 134,060 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. The supply pressure has increased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with a slight increase in production scheduling [7]. 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream operating rate was 43.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.899 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 38.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 33.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 70.77%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 74.07%, a month - on - month increase of 0.809 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand may remain sluggish [7][11]. 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 420.96 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 5.40% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 670.97 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 6.80% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,600.05 yuan/ton, with the profit decreasing by 0.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The production schedule may face pressure [8]. 3.2.4 Inventory - The factory inventory was 315,801 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. The calcium carbide factory inventory was 251,301 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.77%. The ethylene factory inventory was 64,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%. The social inventory was 533,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 5.2 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95% [12]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - Provides detailed data on PVC prices, spreads, inventory, operating rates, and profits for different regions and production methods, including price changes, month - to - month differences, and inventory changes [17]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market 3.4.1 Basis Trend - Displays the historical trend of the PVC basis, reflecting the relationship between the spot price and the futures price [20]. 3.4.2 Price and Volume Trends - Presents the price, trading volume, and position trends of the PVC futures contract, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and moving averages [23]. 3.4.3 Spread Analysis - Analyzes the spread trends of the main PVC futures contracts, such as the 1 - 9 spread and the 5 - 9 spread [26]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis 3.5.1 Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - Analyzes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [29][32][34][36]. 3.5.2 PVC Supply Trends - Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, production, and maintenance volume of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method, as well as the overall PVC production and capacity utilization rate [39][41]. 3.5.3 Demand Trends - Analyzes the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, downstream operating rate, and related economic indicators of PVC, including real estate investment, construction area, and social financing scale [43][44][50][53]. 3.5.4 Inventory - Analyzes the inventory status of the exchange, calcium carbide factory, ethylene factory, and social inventory, as well as the in - stock days of production enterprises [55]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Method - Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads in the ethylene method [57]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Provides the supply - demand balance data for PVC from July 2024 to August 2025, including export volume, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production volume, and import volume [60].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the PVC industry are bearish, with the supply expected to increase in the medium - long term while domestic demand is weak due to the poor performance of the real - estate market and insufficient domestic product orders. The anti - dumping policy from India also adds pressure. However, the price is at a historically low level, which limits the downside space. The short - term operating range of V2601 is expected to be around 4800 - 4940 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4888 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton; the trading volume is 751,072 lots, down 16,722 lots; the open interest is 1,206,310 lots, up 6,574 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 125,894 lots, down 12,175 lots [3]. 3.2现货市场 - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5000 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4699.23 yuan/ton, down 22.69 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4895 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4791.25 yuan/ton, down 10.62 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China is 710 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2573.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it is 2373 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged. The VCM CFR Far East middle - price is 503 US dollars/ton, down 18 US dollars/ton; the EDC CFR Far East middle - price is 189 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.02%, down 1.59 percentage points. The operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 77.25%, up 0.44 percentage points, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 72.95%, down 6.64 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 52.19 tons, up 1.39 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.26. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 35,2060,000 square meters, up 48,416,800 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 6,387,310,000 square meters, up 54,095,700 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 2810.593 billion yuan, up 363.043 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 8.85%, down 1.36 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 21.07%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options is 14.98%, up 0.45 and 0.44 percentage points respectively [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On September 2, the spot price of East China PVCSG5 decreased by 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with the price ranging from 4650 to 4740 yuan/ton. From August 23rd to 29th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59%. As of August 28th, the PVC social inventory was 896,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.10% [3]. 3.8 Outlook - In the short term, the restart of some devices such as Zhongtai and Formosa Plastics Ningbo is expected to increase production and capacity utilization. In September, a total of 900,000 - ton devices of Bohua, Gansu Yaowang, and Qingdao Gulf are planned to be put into production, increasing the long - term supply pressure. Domestic product orders are insufficient, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase at low prices. The weak real - estate market continues to drag down domestic demand. India's anti - dumping policy is expected to be implemented in September [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC decreased this week, and the number of expected maintenance next week is expected to decrease, with a slight increase in production scheduling. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, but the current demand may remain sluggish. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4911 - 4987. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is not smooth. [9][14] - Bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Bearish factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - On August 27, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4800 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 149 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. [11] - The factory inventory was 30.6029 tons, a decrease of 6.32% month - on - month. The calcium carbide factory warehouse was 23.4929 tons, a decrease of 6.10% month - on - month, and the ethylene factory warehouse was 7.11 tons, a decrease of 7.05% month - on - month. The social inventory was 50.8 tons, an increase of 3.08% month - on - month. The inventory days of production enterprises in the warehouse were 5.1 days, a decrease of 5.55% month - on - month, which is neutral. [11] - MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20, which is bearish. [11] - The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish. [11] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, the PVC output was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 77.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The output of calcium carbide enterprises was 328,255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94%, and the output of ethylene enterprises was 136,560 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04%. The supply pressure decreased this week. The downstream overall operating rate was 42.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The current demand may remain sluggish. The fundamentals are neutral. [5][7] - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 222.7577 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 3.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 591.501 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 9.60% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2737.05 yuan/ton, with the profit remaining unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average, and production scheduling may be under pressure. [8] - **Expectation**: The cost of calcium carbide method is strengthening, the cost of ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is strengthening. The supply pressure decreased this week, and the production scheduling is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. [9] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - Provides detailed data on PVC prices, basis, inventory, production, profit, and other aspects, including price changes of different regions and varieties, month - to - month changes in inventory, and profit changes in different production methods. [15] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - Displays the historical trend chart of PVC basis, including the relationship between the basis, East China market price, and the closing price of the main contract. [18] 3.5 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - Presents the historical trend chart of the spread of the main PVC futures contract, including the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread in 2024 and 2025. [24] 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - **Lancoke**: Displays the historical data of Lancoke medium - grade material price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output. [27] - **Calcium Carbide**: Displays the historical data of Shaanxi calcium carbide mainstream price, Wuhai weekly calcium carbide cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and output. [30] - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: Displays the historical data of liquid chlorine price, output, raw salt price, and monthly output. [32] - **Caustic Soda**: Displays the historical data of 32% caustic soda price in Shandong, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly output, and maintenance volume of sample enterprises, as well as data on caustic soda apparent consumption, double - ton spread, and inventory. [35] 3.7 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - Displays the historical data of calcium carbide method and ethylene method capacity utilization rate, profit, daily output, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly output of sample enterprises. [40] 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - Displays the historical data of PVC daily trader sales volume, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and the operating rates of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin). Also includes data on paste resin cost - profit, output, and consumption, as well as real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment. [45] 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - Displays the historical data of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory warehouse, ethylene factory warehouse, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days. [58] 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - Displays the historical data of vinyl chloride import volume, dichloroethane import volume, PVC export volume, ethylene method FOB spread, and vinyl chloride import spread. [60] 3.11 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Displays the monthly supply - demand trend of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including data on export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, output, and import. [63]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - V2509 fell 1.31% to close at 4,970 yuan/ton. The PVC supply may show an upward trend as the operating load gradually increases after the new production capacity is put into operation in August. The domestic downstream demand is in the off - season with only rigid procurement. The anti - dumping policy release is delayed, but the rainy season still hinders overseas demand. The domestic calcium carbide supply and demand tend to be loose this week, and the price may fall; the ethylene US dollar market has sufficient supply, and the price may remain stable. Currently, the V2509 contract has a small premium, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly in the range of 4,900 - 5,100 yuan/ton in the short term. For V2601, pay attention to the support around 5,040 yuan/ton and the resistance around 5,300 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,970 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan; the trading volume was 632,530 lots, up 17,816 lots; the open interest was 412,456 lots, down 66,122 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 835,187 lots, up 9,076 lots; the short positions were 864,943 lots, up 8,752 lots; the net long positions were - 29,756 lots, up 324 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,125 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,922.69 yuan/ton, down 2.31 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,952.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 116 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2,623.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2,403 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 521 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 548 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 189 US dollars/ton, down 22 US dollars; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 198 US dollars/ton, down 21 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC was 79.46%, up 2.62 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 78.65%, up 2.62 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 81.49%, up 2.5 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 48.08 tons, up 3.28 tons; the total social inventory in the East China region was 42.37 tons, up 2.89 tons; the total social inventory in the South China region was 5.71 tons, up 0.39 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.6, down 0.12. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 30,364.32 million square meters, up 7,180.71 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 633,321.43 million square meters, up 8,301.89 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 244.755 billion yuan, up 53.2069 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 29.15%, up 0.18 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 22.94%, up 0.13 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 24.09%, up 2.68 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 24.1%, up 2.87 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On August 14, the market prices of PVC SG5 in Shanghai, Changzhou, and Hangzhou decreased by 0 - 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with prices ranging from 4,800 to 4,930 yuan/ton. From August 2 to August 8, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 79.46%, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. As of August 14, the PVC social inventory increased by 4.53% month - on - month to 811,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.72% [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - V2509 fell 1.17% to close at 4,981 yuan/ton. The supply side saw some PVC device overhauls and restarts last week, with the capacity utilization rate increasing by 0.05% to 76.84%. The demand side had low - level and narrow - range improvement in the start - up of the main downstream pipes, a continued decline in the start - up of profiles, and other varieties' start - up rates remaining at a low level. The PVC social inventory increased by 5.67% to 72.21 million tons last week. After the new capacity is put into operation in August, the supply is likely to rise. The impact of restarted devices will expand this week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase month - on - month. Domestic downstream demand is in the off - season, with only rigid demand for purchases. The delay of the Indian BIS certification and anti - dumping policy has not effectively promoted overseas demand due to the rainy season. The calcium carbide industry's losses are dragging down the start - up, and its price is expected to be supported; the ethylene market's supply - demand changes are limited, and its price is expected to remain stable. Currently, the futures price has a slight premium over the spot price. V2509 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support around 4,900 yuan/ton technically [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,981 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan; the trading volume was 921,641 lots, a decrease of 29,572 lots; the open interest was 758,248 lots, a decrease of 8,604 lots. The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions was 804,697 lots, an increase of 42,366 lots; the sell order volume was 847,434 lots, an increase of 51,705 lots; the net buy order volume was - 42,737 lots, a decrease of 9,339 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of PVC ethylene - based was 5,140 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of PVC calcium - carbide - based was 4,929.23 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.08 yuan. In the South China region, the price of PVC ethylene - based was 5,105 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of PVC calcium - carbide - based was 4,961.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.88 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton (unchanged), in Southeast Asia was 680 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 750 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC was - 111 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), in North China was 2,590 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.67 yuan, and in Northwest China was 2,338 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 550 yuan/ton. The VCM CFR Far East intermediate price was 521 US dollars/ton, an increase of 18 US dollars; the VCM CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 548 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The EDC CFR Far East intermediate price was 211 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the EDC CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 219 US dollars/ton (unchanged) [3] Industry Situation - The weekly start - up rate of PVC was 76.84%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points; the start - up rate of PVC calcium - carbide - based was 76.03%, a decrease of 3.22 percentage points; the start - up rate of PVC ethylene - based was 78.99%, an increase of 8.72 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 448,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons; the total social inventory in the East China region was 394,800 tons, an increase of 16,600 tons; the total social inventory in the South China region was 53,200 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.6, a decrease of 0.12. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, an increase of 71.8071 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.3332143 billion square meters, an increase of 83.0189 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 244.755 billion yuan, an increase of 53.2069 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 29.79%, an increase of 0.18 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 22.67%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 18.05%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 18.06%, a decrease of 1.21 percentage points [3] Industry News - On August 4th, the cash settlement price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou warehouses decreased by 50 - 80 yuan/ton compared to last Friday, with the price ranging from 4,840 - 4,900 yuan/ton. From July 26th to August 1st, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.84%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05%. As of July 31st, the PVC social inventory increased by 5.67% month - on - month to 72.21 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.10% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure decreased this week, and the expected maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with a significant increase in scheduled production [7]. - The overall downstream demand is low, with some downstream product start - up rates below historical averages [8]. - The cost of both calcium carbide method and ethylene method is strengthening, and the overall cost is strengthening [9]. - The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish trend [9]. - The PVC2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5105 - 5213 [9]. - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In June 2025, PVC production was 1991340 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.40%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 76.79%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 338340 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.58%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 113190 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.32% [7]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream start - up rate was 41.88%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The start - up rates of some downstream products such as profiles, pipes, and paste resin were also lower than historical averages, while the start - up rates of films and paste resin were higher than historical averages. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive, but the current demand may remain weak [8]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 133.62 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 57.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 505.79 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 14.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2903.45 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.60%, higher than the historical average, and scheduled production may increase [8]. - **Other Aspects**: The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish. The inventory situation is mixed, with factory inventory decreasing and social inventory increasing, which is bearish. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract is above the MA20, which is bullish [10]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a detailed table of yesterday's PVC market data, including prices, production, inventory, and start - up rates of different types of PVC and related products, as well as their changes compared to the previous period [16]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Base Price Trend**: A chart shows the base price trend of PVC futures, including the relationship between the base price, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price over time [19]. - **Price and Volume Trends**: Charts display the price, trading volume, and position changes of PVC futures, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and the changes in the positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats [22]. - **Spread Analysis**: A chart shows the spread analysis of the main PVC futures contracts, including the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread over time [25]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: Analyzes the prices, costs, profits, start - up rates, and inventories of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method of PVC production [28][31][33][35]. - **PVC Supply Trend**: Analyzes the capacity utilization rates, production profits, daily and weekly production, and maintenance volumes of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production [40][42]. - **Demand Trend**: Analyzes the sales volume of PVC traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream start - up rates of PVC products, and the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment, social financing scale, and other macro - economic indicators [44][46][48][53][56]. - **Inventory Situation**: Analyzes the inventory changes of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory warehouses, ethylene method factory warehouses, and social inventories of PVC [58]. - **Ethylene Method - Related**: Analyzes the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC exports, and price spreads in the ethylene method of PVC production [60]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Provides a supply - demand balance sheet of PVC from May 2024 to June 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include a rebound in overall supply pressure, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4940 - 5010 [12][13][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Positive Factors**: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [12]. - **Negative Factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [12]. - **Main Logic**: The overall supply pressure is strong, and domestic demand recovery is sluggish [13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply Side**: In June 2025, PVC production was 1991340 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.40%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.97%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 338190 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 114390 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.62%. Supply pressure decreased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with a small increase in production scheduling [7]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream开工率 was 41.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.77 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 34.55%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 37.67%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.83 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 72.22%, unchanged month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 73.58%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain weak [7]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 445.08 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 19.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 620.57 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 10.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2630.35 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in profit of 1.30%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8]. - **Basis**: On July 15, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 45 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral [9]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 381590 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.21%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 296790 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.61%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 84800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.22%. Social inventory was 392700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.25%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 6.18 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32%. It is neutral [9]. - **Market**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20. It is bullish [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increased. It is bearish [9]. - **Expectation**: The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is strengthening, and the overall cost is strengthening. This week, supply pressure decreased. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase. The overall inventory is at a neutral level. Current demand may remain weak. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. The PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4940 - 5010 [9]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - Provides yesterday's market overview data, including prices, price changes, and inventory changes of different types of PVC enterprises, downstream开工率, and profit and cost data [16]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - Displays the historical trend chart of the basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price from 2022 to 2025 [19]. 3.5 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - Displays the historical trend chart of the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread of PVC futures from 2024 to 2025 [25]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - **Lancoke**: Shows the price, cost - profit,开工率, inventory, and daily output trends of Lancoke from 2020 to 2025 [28]. - **Calcium Carbide**: Displays the price, cost - profit,开工率, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide from 2019 to 2025 [31]. - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: Presents the price, production, and monthly production trends of liquid chlorine and raw salt from 2020 to 2025 [33]. - **Caustic Soda**: Shows the price, cost - profit,开工率, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, double - ton price difference, and inventory trends of caustic soda from 2019 to 2025 [36][39]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - Displays the capacity utilization rate, production profit, daily output, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production trends of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method from 2018 to 2025 [41][43]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - **Sales and Pre - sales**: Shows the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, and weekly production - sales ratio trends of PVC from 2019 to 2025 [47][48]. - **Downstream开工率**: Displays the开工率 trends of PVC profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin from 2019 to 2025 [50]. - **Paste Resin**: Presents the profit, cost, monthly production, and apparent consumption trends of paste resin from 2019 to 2025 [53]. - **Real Estate and Infrastructure**: Displays the investment completion amount, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area of real estate, as well as the social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year trends from 2019 to 2025 [56][59]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - Displays the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 [61]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - Shows the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB price difference (Tianjin - Taiwan), and vinyl chloride import price difference (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) trends from 2018 to 2025 [63]. 3.11 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Presents the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from May 2024 to June 2025, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Cautiously bearish [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC faces high supply and inventory pressure with weak domestic demand, lacking positive fundamental support and under pressure [3][4] - Caustic soda's overall supply - demand fundamentals are expected to be weak, with insufficient upward price drivers [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: PVC main contract closed at 4758 yuan/ton (-35); East China basis -98 yuan/ton (-5); South China basis -8 yuan/ton (+35) [1] - Spot price: East China calcium carbide method quoted at 4660 yuan/ton (-40); South China calcium carbide method quoted at 4750 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: PVC calcium carbide method gross profit -621 yuan/ton (+37); PVC ethylene method gross profit -516 yuan/ton (+10); PVC export profit 13.8 dollars/ton (+6.1) [1] - Inventory and开工: PVC factory inventory 38.7 tons (-1.9); PVC social inventory 37.8 tons (-2.0); PVC calcium carbide method operating rate 73.19% (-2.33%); PVC ethylene method operating rate 72.90% (+2.84%); PVC operating rate 73.11% (-0.90%) [1] - Downstream orders: Production enterprise pre - sales volume 60.3 tons (-2.9) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: SH main contract closed at 2456 yuan/ton (+7); Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda basis 294 yuan/ton (-7) [1] - Spot price: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda quoted at 880 yuan/ton (+0); Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda quoted at 1420 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: Shandong caustic soda single - product profit 1759 yuan/ton (+0); Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) 935.8 yuan/ton (+0.0); Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) 313.78 yuan/ton (-50.00); Northwest chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) 1425.55 yuan/ton (+20.20) [2] - Inventory and开工: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory 40.09 tons (-1.50); Flake caustic soda factory inventory 2.95 tons (+0.03); Caustic soda operating rate 84.10% (+1.50%) [2] - Downstream开工: Alumina operating rate 78.10% (+1.43%); Printing and dyeing East China operating rate 63.23% (+0.00%); Viscose staple fiber operating rate 80.30% (-0.35%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: New maintenance scale is small, previous maintenance devices continue to stop, PVC operating rate declines slightly month - on - month, but there are few planned maintenance in the later period, and PVC production is at a high level in the same period. With the expected new capacity put into production from June to July, supply pressure is still high [3] - Demand side: PVC downstream product enterprises' operating rate is at a low level in the same period, PVC pipes, profiles and films' operating rate is weakly stable, downstream market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices, and the spot price center of PVC is weakly volatile. Demand is weak [3] - Cost side: The upstream raw material calcium carbide market is weakly stable, and the cost - side support for PVC is insufficient [3] Caustic Soda - Supply side: Some new maintenance enterprises are added, and previous maintenance enterprises resume production one after another. The overall operating rate of caustic soda rises slightly month - on - month, but manufacturers' loads mostly run at a high level supported by profits. With the expected new capacity of caustic soda put into production from June to July, supply pressure is still high [3] - Demand side: The spot price of alumina, the main downstream product, continues to rise, and the production profit of the alumina industry is significantly repaired. The reduction of production may weaken, and the expectation of some capacity resumption is strong, which may support the caustic soda market price in the short term. Non - aluminum downstream terminal purchases are cautious, mainly replenishing on - demand, and the operating rate of non - aluminum terminals such as viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing is still at a low level in the same period, and non - aluminum demand remains weak [3] Strategy - PVC: Cautiously bearish. High inventory and supply pressure continue, domestic demand is weak, and the price is expected to run weakly at the bottom in the short term [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral. The overall supply - demand fundamentals are expected to be weak, and the price may continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment continuity and alumina capacity resumption progress [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core View of the Report - PVC will experience short - term fluctuations and face pressure in the later stage. Although there are some positive factors such as macro - level Sino - US phased reconciliation and short - term terminal product export rush, the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to alleviate, and high - price transactions are slowing down [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Fundamental Tracking - As of the report, the 09 - contract futures price of PVC is 5041, the East China spot price is 4880, the basis is - 161, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 103. The domestic PVC spot price has been raised this week. Due to positive macro expectations, rising industrial products, and improved export inquiries and deliveries of products, the price has increased. However, high - price transaction sentiment has weakened, and market sentiment is more watchful. Currently, the ex - warehouse spot price of calcium carbide - based type 5 PVC in East China is 4800 - 4950 yuan/ton, and the ethylene - based price has stabilized at 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton [1]. Market Condition Analysis - **Positive factors**: At the macro - level, Sino - US phased reconciliation is sentimentally positive, and short - term terminal product export rush supports the market [2]. - **Negative factors**: From a fundamental perspective, Northwest chlor - alkali integration still has profits, and the high - production and high - inventory structure of PVC is difficult to alleviate. The high - production pattern is difficult to change in the short term because the maintenance volume in the first quarter of PVC was low, and high - profit caustic soda demand in 2025 supports the chlor - alkali industry to offset losses in PVC. Moreover, there will be more new capacity put into production, especially in June. The high - inventory pressure persists, and export demand can only relieve it temporarily. In 2025, the PVC export market faces greater competition pressure, affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification. Domestic demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is still weak year - on - year, and enterprises have low inventory - building willingness [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PVC is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3][4].