Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - V2509 fell 1.31% to close at 4,970 yuan/ton. The PVC supply may show an upward trend as the operating load gradually increases after the new production capacity is put into operation in August. The domestic downstream demand is in the off - season with only rigid procurement. The anti - dumping policy release is delayed, but the rainy season still hinders overseas demand. The domestic calcium carbide supply and demand tend to be loose this week, and the price may fall; the ethylene US dollar market has sufficient supply, and the price may remain stable. Currently, the V2509 contract has a small premium, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly in the range of 4,900 - 5,100 yuan/ton in the short term. For V2601, pay attention to the support around 5,040 yuan/ton and the resistance around 5,300 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,970 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan; the trading volume was 632,530 lots, up 17,816 lots; the open interest was 412,456 lots, down 66,122 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 835,187 lots, up 9,076 lots; the short positions were 864,943 lots, up 8,752 lots; the net long positions were - 29,756 lots, up 324 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,125 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,922.69 yuan/ton, down 2.31 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,952.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 116 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2,623.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2,403 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 521 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 548 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 189 US dollars/ton, down 22 US dollars; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 198 US dollars/ton, down 21 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC was 79.46%, up 2.62 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 78.65%, up 2.62 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 81.49%, up 2.5 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 48.08 tons, up 3.28 tons; the total social inventory in the East China region was 42.37 tons, up 2.89 tons; the total social inventory in the South China region was 5.71 tons, up 0.39 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.6, down 0.12. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 30,364.32 million square meters, up 7,180.71 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 633,321.43 million square meters, up 8,301.89 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 244.755 billion yuan, up 53.2069 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 29.15%, up 0.18 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 22.94%, up 0.13 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 24.09%, up 2.68 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 24.1%, up 2.87 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On August 14, the market prices of PVC SG5 in Shanghai, Changzhou, and Hangzhou decreased by 0 - 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with prices ranging from 4,800 to 4,930 yuan/ton. From August 2 to August 8, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 79.46%, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. As of August 14, the PVC social inventory increased by 4.53% month - on - month to 811,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.72% [3].

| | | PVC产业日报 2025-08-04 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4981 | -34 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 921641 | -29572 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 758248 | -8604 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 804697 | 42366 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 847434 | 51705 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -42737 | -9339 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 5140 | 0 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4929.23 | -28.08 | | | 华南:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 5105 | 0 华南:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4961.25 | -21.88 | | | PVC:中国:到 ...

PVC期货早报 2025年7月31日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年6月PVC产量为199.134万吨，环比减少1.40%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为76.79%，环比减少0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量33.834万吨，环比减少0.58%,乙烯法企业产 量11.319万吨，环比减少2.32%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产增加幅度 可观。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为41.88%，环比增加.77个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为38%，环比增加.45个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为32.52%，环比减少1.23个百分 点，低于历史平均水平；下 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年7月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年6月PVC产量为199.134万吨，环比减少1.40%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为76.97%，环比减少0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量33.819万吨，环比减少1.92%,乙烯法企业产 量11.439万吨，环比增加3.62%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为41.11%，环比减少1.77个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为34.55%，环比减少0.20个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为37.67%，环比减少1.83个 百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Cautiously bearish [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC faces high supply and inventory pressure with weak domestic demand, lacking positive fundamental support and under pressure [3][4] - Caustic soda's overall supply - demand fundamentals are expected to be weak, with insufficient upward price drivers [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: PVC main contract closed at 4758 yuan/ton (-35); East China basis -98 yuan/ton (-5); South China basis -8 yuan/ton (+35) [1] - Spot price: East China calcium carbide method quoted at 4660 yuan/ton (-40); South China calcium carbide method quoted at 4750 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: PVC calcium carbide method gross profit -621 yuan/ton (+37); PVC ethylene method gross profit -516 yuan/ton (+10); PVC export profit 13.8 dollars/ton (+6.1) [1] - Inventory and开工: PVC factory inventory 38.7 tons (-1.9); PVC social inventory 37.8 tons (-2.0); PVC calcium carbide method operating rate 73.19% (-2.33%); PVC ethylene method operating rate 72.90% (+2.84%); PVC operating rate 73.11% (-0.90%) [1] - Downstream orders: Production enterprise pre - sales volume 60.3 tons (-2.9) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: SH main contract closed at 2456 yuan/ton (+7); Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda basis 294 yuan/ton (-7) [1] - Spot price: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda quoted at 880 yuan/ton (+0); Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda quoted at 1420 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: Shandong caustic soda single - product profit 1759 yuan/ton (+0); Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) 935.8 yuan/ton (+0.0); Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) 313.78 yuan/ton (-50.00); Northwest chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) 1425.55 yuan/ton (+20.20) [2] - Inventory and开工: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory 40.09 tons (-1.50); Flake caustic soda factory inventory 2.95 tons (+0.03); Caustic soda operating rate 84.10% (+1.50%) [2] - Downstream开工: Alumina operating rate 78.10% (+1.43%); Printing and dyeing East China operating rate 63.23% (+0.00%); Viscose staple fiber operating rate 80.30% (-0.35%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: New maintenance scale is small, previous maintenance devices continue to stop, PVC operating rate declines slightly month - on - month, but there are few planned maintenance in the later period, and PVC production is at a high level in the same period. With the expected new capacity put into production from June to July, supply pressure is still high [3] - Demand side: PVC downstream product enterprises' operating rate is at a low level in the same period, PVC pipes, profiles and films' operating rate is weakly stable, downstream market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices, and the spot price center of PVC is weakly volatile. Demand is weak [3] - Cost side: The upstream raw material calcium carbide market is weakly stable, and the cost - side support for PVC is insufficient [3] Caustic Soda - Supply side: Some new maintenance enterprises are added, and previous maintenance enterprises resume production one after another. The overall operating rate of caustic soda rises slightly month - on - month, but manufacturers' loads mostly run at a high level supported by profits. With the expected new capacity of caustic soda put into production from June to July, supply pressure is still high [3] - Demand side: The spot price of alumina, the main downstream product, continues to rise, and the production profit of the alumina industry is significantly repaired. The reduction of production may weaken, and the expectation of some capacity resumption is strong, which may support the caustic soda market price in the short term. Non - aluminum downstream terminal purchases are cautious, mainly replenishing on - demand, and the operating rate of non - aluminum terminals such as viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing is still at a low level in the same period, and non - aluminum demand remains weak [3] Strategy - PVC: Cautiously bearish. High inventory and supply pressure continue, domestic demand is weak, and the price is expected to run weakly at the bottom in the short term [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral. The overall supply - demand fundamentals are expected to be weak, and the price may continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment continuity and alumina capacity resumption progress [4]

2025 年 5 月 16 日 PVC：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | | chenjiaxin023887@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | PVC 基本面数据 | | | | | 09合约期货价格 | 华东现货价格 基差 | | 9-1月差 | | 5041 | 4880 | -161 | -103 | 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 【现货消息】 本周国内 PVC 现货价格上调，宏观预期看好及工业品上涨带动盘中气氛，盘面价格上调，临近周末， 制品出口询单及交付气氛向好，PVC 盘面价格继续上涨，周内 PVC 生产企业集中检修，行业库存持续去化， PVC 现货重心推高，然高价成交气氛转弱，市场观望情绪增加，截止目前，华东地区电石法五型现汇库提在 4800-4950 元/吨，乙烯法企稳在 4900-5100 元/吨。 【市场状况分析】 宏观层面，中美阶段性和解，情绪利多。同时，短期终端制品抢出口支撑市场。但从基本面看，西北氯 碱一体化仍有利润，未来 PVC 高产量，高库存 ...