Federal Reserve Policy & Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is in no rush to adjust interest rates due to uncertainty about the economy, inflation, and the labor market [3] - The unemployment rate remains stable, similar to the previous summer [1][2][5] - The Fed aims to prevent any rise in inflation from becoming persistent, emphasizing the importance of keeping inflation expectations in check through patience [3] - The market anticipates rate cuts in the coming year, regardless of economic data, potentially influenced by a new Fed chair [13] - All Federal Open Market Committee members expect interest rates to be lower by the end of next year [17] Labor Market Dynamics - Labor demand growth is slowing, but the labor market hasn't loosened because the unemployment rate is unchanged [5] - Both labor supply and labor demand have slowed, with immigration policy being a contributing factor to the slowdown in labor supply [2][5] - Payroll employment growth has decelerated, which could become problematic if the trend continues [4] Tariff Impact & Trade Policy - The impact of tariffs on the economy is uncertain, particularly regarding inflation and business fixed investment [3][10] - A hypothetical 18%-20% tariff rate is compared to the economic tensions of the 1930s [6] - The current tariff shock may be more significant than in the 1930s due to a higher share of imports in GDP [8] - Most economists believe that tariffs will eventually be passed through to consumers, with every 1% increase in tariffs as a percent of imports adding about 01% to the price level [11][12] - An increase from 25% to 17%-18% in tariffs on imports could raise the level of prices by about 05% [12]

Trade Policy and the Fed Decision - Bloomberg Surveillance https://t.co/OkRidRSwMX ...

Global Economic Outlook - Global economic growth expectations are diminished compared to previous expectations, but a modest upward revision exists compared to April due to easing trade tensions [2][3][4] - Medium-term growth has been relatively weak and is expected to continue, with tariffs potentially exacerbating this trend [6][7] Impact of Tariffs - Tariffs are expected to be around 17% on average for the US on the rest of the world, a significant increase from less than 3% last year [5] - The depreciation of the US dollar is amplifying the tariff shock, making foreign goods more expensive and US goods more competitive [10] - Tariffs are starting to transmit into domestic prices, with importers, distributors, retailers, and eventually customers likely to bear the cost [12][13] US Economic Performance - US GDP outlook for 2025 is revised to 19%, with a slight acceleration to 2% growth in 2026, partly due to tariffs not being as severe as expected and the recent budget bill [7][9][11] - The US economy has been helped by easing financial conditions, with equity markets performing well and a depreciation of the US dollar [10] Trade Deficits and Policy - The US is concerned about its trade deficit, a legitimate concern monitored by the IMF [15][16] - Tariffs and trade policy are unlikely to significantly reduce the US's external deficits, which are primarily driven by domestic fiscal policy [17][18] - The US fiscal policy, with 6-7% public deficits, is a primary driver of the external deficit, and addressing this through fiscal policy is preferable to raising tariffs [18][19]

Financial Performance - Q2 2025 EBITDA was approximately $13 billion[10], compared to $15 billion in the previous period[10] - Net earnings for Q2 2025 were $603 million[10], down from $845 million[10] - Earnings per diluted share (EPS) were $260 in Q2 2025[10], compared to $346 in the previous period[10] - Capital expenditures in Q2 2025 reached $954 million[10], reaffirming the full-year estimate of approximately $3 billion[10] - Share repurchases in Q2 2025 amounted to $200 million, representing 18 million shares[10] - The company returned 55% of Q2 2025 net earnings to shareholders and 100% of year-to-date earnings[10] Operational Highlights and Market Conditions - Steel mills achieved EBITDA positivity at Brandenburg and record sheet shipments[10] - Steel product shipments and margins increased in Q2 2025, with a stable backlog[10] - Strong mill backlogs were maintained at approximately 37 million tons at the end of Q2 2025, a 30% year-over-year increase[10] - Steel imports decreased by approximately 9% year-to-date through June compared to the same period in 2024[10]

Manufacturing & Trade Dynamics - US bicycle manufacturers face a disadvantage because importing finished bicycles is duty-free, while importing bicycle components is not [1] - This duty structure has led some companies to move production overseas after a decade of US manufacturing [2] - The industry has observed a trend of companies ceasing US production due to these trade dynamics [2] - There is a lack of evidence suggesting companies are establishing new plants in the US as a result of current policies [2] Policy Impact & Uncertainty - Uncertainty in trade policies is negatively impacting businesses [3] - Manufacturing in the US for US sales offers the certainty of zero duties, provided all sub-components are also US-made [3]

It's going to bring us closer together. I think this deal will bring us very close together. Actually, >> it's a huge deal.Um, it will bring stability. It will bring predictability. That's very important for our businesses on both sides of the Atlantic.>> President Trump and the European Commission's President Ursula Bonderain said that we're looking at a 15% tariff on most European goods that are exported to the US. that crucially for the EU that includes the automotive sector uh which is something that th ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Battery Supply Chain - **Key Event**: Announcement of a trade deal between the US and Japan, setting a reciprocal tariff rate at 15% and reducing the Section 232 tariff on Japanese automobiles from 25% to 12.5% [2][3] Core Insights and Arguments - **Impact on Battery Costs**: If Korea signs a similar trade deal, the tariff-inclusive battery costs could decline due to the halving of the Section 232 tariff [3][5] - **Competitiveness of Korean Cathode Makers**: The relative competitiveness of Korean cathode manufacturers would improve against Indonesian counterparts due to a 10 percentage point decline in the reciprocal tariff [3] - **Market Share Loss**: Korean cathode makers have reportedly lost market share to Indonesian capacities controlled by Chinese entities [3] Risks and Considerations - **Safety Issues**: The battery industry has experienced safety issues that can directly impact company profitability and industry demand, particularly through recalls [5] - **Trade Policy Volatility**: Frequent changes in trade policies are identified as key demand drivers, leading to significant profit swings for companies along the battery supply chain [5] Additional Important Information - **Analyst Contact Information**: Tim Bush and Cherie Miao from UBS Securities Asia Limited are the analysts responsible for this report [4] - **Valuation Methodology**: The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the risks and returns associated with investments in the battery supply chain [5][30] This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the implications of trade agreements, competitive dynamics in the battery industry, and associated risks.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - West Fraser generated $84 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2025, representing an approximate 6% margin, continuing to operate within a cyclical downturn [4] - The company exited Q2 with nearly $1.7 billion of available liquidity and a strong cash position net of debts [5][6] - Cash flow from operations was $85 million in Q2, with a net cash balance of $310 million, up from $156 million in the prior quarter [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The lumber segment posted adjusted EBITDA of $15 million in Q2, down from $66 million in Q1, primarily due to lower pricing and higher fiber costs [8] - The North America EWP segment generated $68 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q2, down from $125 million in Q1, driven by lower OSB pricing [8] - The Pulp and Paper segment generated negative $1 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q2, compared to $7 million in Q1, largely due to an inventory write-down [8] - The European business posted $2 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q2, improving from negative $2 million in Q1, linked to higher OSB pricing and shipments [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. housing starts averaged 1,320,000 units on a seasonally adjusted basis in Q2, reflecting a decline in new home construction due to elevated mortgage and interest rates [4] - Repair and remodeling demand remained subdued, impacted by broader macro factors [5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a strong balance sheet and liquidity profile, allowing for counter-cyclical investments and growth opportunities [6] - West Fraser is focused on controlling costs and optimizing its mill portfolio to create a more resilient company [13] - The company is prepared to support discussions regarding softwood lumber tariffs and is actively scenario planning for various trade-related outcomes [15][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted ongoing challenges with housing affordability and repair and remodeling markets, leading to modified shipment guidance for 2025 [10] - The company remains optimistic about the longer-term prospects for the industry despite a cloudy near-term outlook due to global trade complexities [17] Other Important Information - The U.S. Department of Commerce released preliminary combined rates for softwood lumber duties at 26.05%, which could result in an expense of $65 million if confirmed [12] - The company successfully amended and extended its $1 billion credit facility and increased its $300 million term loan [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: What have you learned about the substitutability between SPF and SYP? - Management noted that price spreads between products tend to close during high demand and separate during low demand, driven by supply and demand dynamics [20][21] Question: What are your views on a possible lumber export quota? - Management indicated that all options are on the table for discussions regarding lumber and that they are prepared to support the government in these discussions [24][25] Question: Are you cash flow positive in the North American lumber and OSB business? - Management refrained from discussing specific segment cash flow but emphasized the strength of their diversified product portfolio and counter-cyclical investments [27][29] Question: What do you need to do to improve the European business? - Management expressed confidence in their European assets and team, noting that they are well-positioned for recovery as demand improves [47][49] Question: What is the M&A opportunity set looking like? - Management stated they are ready to acquire quality assets if they become available, emphasizing a focus on quality and synergies rather than opportunistic purchases [68][70]

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde comments on monetary policy, the outlook for the euro-area economy, the inflation situation and concerns related to trade policy and geopolitical uncertainty. She speaks at a news conference in Frankfurt after the Governing Council decided to keep interest rates unchanged for the first time in more than a year. This is the opening statement of her press conference. 00:00 - ECB's decision to keep interest rates unchanged 01:50 - Euro-area economic growth in f ...

#报告 瑞银：特朗普与日本的协议预示着贸易政策更加明朗。None (@None):None ...