1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral - weak view on the natural rubber industry in the medium - long term [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current situation of natural rubber is characterized by weak demand and ample supply, with the market expected to remain in a wide - range oscillatory pattern, and light - colored rubber is relatively stronger [1] - In the medium - long term, the global total production capacity cycle has not fully peaked, supply pressure is increasing, and demand requires continuous macro - incentives. Therefore, the industry is viewed as neutral - weak [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The real - world support for natural rubber has slightly weakened, while market expectations remain stable. The market is in an oscillatory pattern with narrowing amplitude under the divergence between bulls and bears [1] - The fundamental contradictions of natural rubber have changed little. The concern about flood - induced production cuts in Thailand has subsided, and downstream demand support has weakened marginally [1] - The inventory of natural rubber, especially in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, continues to accumulate. Tire production, sales, and exports have decreased month - on - month, and downstream inventory pressure has increased [1] - In the long term, fixed - asset investment and real - estate investment continue to decline, domestic demand growth is under pressure, and there are still obstacles to exports, resulting in a weak long - term demand outlook [1] - Weather disturbances in production areas are alternating. Early heavy rainfall in southern Thailand and Vietnam and floods in southern Thailand disrupted short - term supply, but later rainfall in Thailand is expected to decrease. Cooling in Yunnan will lead to earlier suspension of tapping, tightening supply expectations [1] - After the concentrated cancellation of RU warehouse receipts in November, there are more than 40,000 tons of new rubber warehouse receipts, and the warehousing is still slow, but the overall supply of whole - milk latex is not expected to be in short supply [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has revised the delivery standards for No. 20 rubber, which will introduce alternative delivery products, increasing the expectation of a looser supply of delivery products [1] - The price of synthetic rubber was strong in the early stage, and the price difference between natural rubber and synthetic rubber widened, which may weaken the dragging effect of synthetic rubber [1] - The recent macro - environment has warmed up, with the probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut exceeding 85%, and China's monetary policy has been stably continued, reducing liquidity concerns and increasing market risk appetite [1] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Price Range**: The short - term reference oscillatory range for RU2605 is 14,900 - 15,500, and for NR2601 is 1,1900 - 12,400 [22] - **Trend Judgment**: Currently, downstream demand is weakening, and upstream supply is neutral. There are still supports and pressures in the range. With limited changes in fundamentals, rubber prices are more affected by sentiment fluctuations and are expected to remain oscillatory [22] - **Strategy Recommendations**: - **Basis Strategy**: The basis of RU is at a high level, with limited room for further increase. The valuation of whole - milk latex is expected to continue the seasonal repair trend [23] - **Unilateral Strategy**: There is a large divergence between bulls and bears in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the callback opportunities at the upper and lower limits of the oscillatory range [24] - **Hedging Strategy**: It is expected that the volatility will be large, and unilateral trading can be combined with protective options [24] - **Calendar Spread Arbitrage Strategy**: The spread between RU1 and RU5 rose and then fell last week. Currently, the warehouse receipts are low, which is favorable for the positive - spread arbitrage under the long - position of the near - month contract. However, rubber prices are under great pressure, and the spread may be limited during the suspension of tapping in China in the first quarter of next year. Pay attention to the arbitrage space for spread convergence [25] - **Variety Arbitrage Strategy**: Consider widening the spread between light - and dark - colored rubber at low levels, with the 01 spread combination referring to around 3,000 points. There may still be room to widen the spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber [25] 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range forecast for rubber RU in the next two weeks is 14,800 - 15,600, with a current volatility of 26.95% and a historical percentile of 12.75% in three years. For 20 - gauge rubber NR, the price range is 11,900 - 12,400, with a current volatility of 13.80% and a historical percentile of 68.66% in three years [27] - **Risk Management Strategy Recommendations**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory, they can short rubber futures to lock in sales profits, buy out - of - the - money put options to reduce price - decline risks, and sell call options to increase sales profits [28] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low inventory and future procurement plans, they can buy rubber far - month futures to lock in procurement costs, buy out - of - the - money call options to reduce cost - increase risks, and sell put options to reduce procurement costs [28] 3.2 Important Information and Focus of Attention 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: - The central bank conducted a 100 - billion - yuan repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [30] - In November 2025, the retail and wholesale volumes of the domestic passenger - car market showed certain growth trends [30] - The ADP employment data in the US was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in December by the Fed rose to 86% [30] - The unemployment rate in the eurozone remained stable, and the core CPI decreased month - on - month [31] - The China Logistics Prosperity Index in November was 50.9%, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month [31] - In terms of weather, some production areas in Yunnan are gradually suspending tapping, and the supply in Hainan is expected to tighten due to raw - material competition and concentrated milk diversion. Rainfall in southern Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia is increasing [31] - **Negative Information**: - China's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in November were lower than expected, dragging down the composite PMI [32] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange revised the contract and delivery rules for 20 - gauge rubber futures, adding alternative delivery products [32] - As of November 30, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber increased, with both light - and dark - colored rubber inventories rising [32] - According to the ANRPC report, global natural rubber production is expected to increase slightly in 2025, while demand growth is relatively weak [33] - In October 2025, Indonesia's exports of natural rubber to China decreased slightly month - on - month but increased significantly year - on - year [34] - The EUDR has been postponed, and the results of the EU's double - anti investigation are still pending [34] 3.2.2 This Week's Focus of Attention - Monitor the weather and tapping progress in Yunnan, the raw - material supply in Hainan, and the rainfall in southern Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia [35] - Pay attention to the import and export of dry rubber, social inventory changes, and the repair of whole - milk latex valuation and spot digestion [35] - Keep an eye on downstream tire export data and tire production start - up rates [35] - In the macro - aspect, focus on the Fed's interest - rate decision, other central banks' actions, China's trade balance, CPI, and PPI data [35] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend**: The main contract of RU has switched to 05. Last week, the 01 contract of rubber weakened, and the main contract rebounded after touching the support at 15,000, maintaining a weak oscillatory pattern. The main contract of NR also oscillated synchronously, and its positions increased [38] - **Capital Movement**: On the disk, short positions in RU continued to increase last week, while short positions in NR decreased gradually [40] 3.3.2 Spot Market and Spread Analysis - **Spot Market**: The prices of most rubber varieties decreased last week, including domestic whole - milk latex, Thai RSS3, and Vietnamese 3L [43] - **Term Structure Analysis**: - **Basis Change**: The basis of whole - milk latex is on a regression trend. The valuation of RU relative to other spot products is relatively stable. NR is anchored to Indonesian standard rubber, and the basis of other spot products relative to NR has widened, which may provide some support [46] - **Calendar Spread Structure**: Last week, the overall center of gravity of RU shifted downward, the spot and 01 contracts were firm, and the C - structure became shallower. The structure of NR changed little and shifted downward overall [53] - **External Market**: The prices of Japanese RSS3 and Singapore TSR20 decreased last week. The structure of Japanese RSS3 has changed to a C - structure, and the C - structure of Singapore TSR20 has become slightly shallower [57][59] - **Internal - External Spread**: The spread between RU and Japanese RSS3 futures has rebounded, and the spread between NR and Singapore standard rubber has turned negative [61] - **Virtual - to - Physical Ratio and Sentiment Index**: Last week, the sentiment in the rubber market rebounded slightly, and the demand sentiment for downstream tires was flat with a slight warming. Currently, the number of RU warehouse receipts is low, and the virtual - to - physical ratio is high. Pay attention to the game between bulls and bears. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR has declined [66][67] - **Variety Spread Analysis**: - **Dry - Rubber Spot Spread**: The spread between light - and dark - colored rubber has widened, and the relative valuation of whole - milk latex has continued to repair. The spread between Thai standard and Thai mixed rubber has widened again, and the spread between Thai and Indonesian standard rubber has slightly decreased [68] - **Spread between Natural and Synthetic Rubber**: The supply pressure of synthetic rubber is slightly stronger than that of natural rubber. The spread between synthetic and natural rubber has retracted, and there may still be room for it to widen in the future [71] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Profit Tracking - **Raw Material Cost**: The overall raw - material prices are firm, with some prices rising. Cooling in Yunnan has led to earlier suspension of tapping, and rainfall in Thailand has decreased, weakening support [74] - **Processing Profit - Domestic Rubber**: The delivery profit of whole - milk latex has oscillated upward, while the profit of TSR9710 has declined slowly [82] - **Processing Profit - Imported Rubber**: Last week, rubber prices oscillated. The profit of Thai smoked sheets has slightly rebounded, the profit of Thai standard rubber has decreased due to price decline, and the profit of Thai mixed rubber has declined [84] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side - **Production in Major Producing Countries**: The natural - rubber production in major producing countries shows seasonal characteristics. In Yunnan, China, tapping is gradually suspending, and the supply in Hainan is expected to tighten [31] - **Domestic Import Situation**: In October 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. Most major rubber varieties showed a downward trend in imports month - on - month [88] 3.5.2 Demand Side - **Tire Production and Sales**: The start - up rate of all - steel tires has increased slightly, while that of semi - steel tires has rebounded slightly. Tire exports have decreased significantly month - on - month and weakened year - on - year in October [105] - **Replacement Demand**: The domestic logistics industry has been performing steadily, but the slowdown in fixed - asset investment and real - estate investment may suppress the growth of replacement demand in the long term [110] - **Matching Demand - Automobiles**: Domestic automobile sales have continued to improve, but the high inventory of passenger cars may increase the demand pressure on semi - steel tires [118] - **Matching Demand - Heavy Trucks and Construction Machinery**: The production of heavy trucks has maintained high growth, and the cumulative year - on - year growth of construction machinery has increased. However, the long - term weak fixed - asset investment may limit the growth of new demand for trucks [122] - **Overseas Tire Production**: Japan's tire production has been stable overall, and Thailand's tire shipment index has shown year - on - year growth but weakened in the fourth quarter [124] - **Overseas Tire Demand**: The tire imports in the US have increased against the trend, and the production and sales of European passenger cars have been stable [126] - **Other Rubber Product Demand**: The start - up rate of domestic conveyor belts has increased slightly month - on - month but is lower year - on - year, and the start - up rate of rubber hoses has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [133] 3.5.3 Inventory Side - **Futures Inventory**: The number of Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts has increased slightly this week, and the number of 20 - gauge rubber warehouse receipts has increased at a slightly faster rate than the seasonal trend [135] - **Social Inventory**: As of November 30, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao has increased, with the inventory in the free - trade zone and general - trade warehouses rising [137]

#观察 在今年12月政治局会议措辞中，过去的“强化逆周期和跨周期调节”升级到“加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度”。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面依法治国工作条例》。中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。会议强调，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量。 https://t.co/8T7cqVoxLk ...

中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面依法治国工作条例》。中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。会议强调，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量。明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。要坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场。 ...

2025 年 12 月 8 日 本周热点前瞻 2025-12-08 【本周重点关注】 12 月 8 日 11:00，海关总署将公布中国 11 月进出口数据。 12 月 10 日 09:30，国家统计局将公布 11 月 CPI 和 PPI。 12 月 10 日-17 日 16:00，中国人民银行将公布 11 月金融统计数据报告、11 月社会融资规模增量统计数据 报告、11 月社会融资规模存量统计数据报告。 12 月 11 日 03:00，美联储将公布利率决议和经济预期摘要。03:30，美联储主席鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。 预期，美联储将联邦基金利率下调 25 个基点。 重点关注国内宏观政策变化、国际地缘政治局势、美国总统特朗普和美联储官员讲话等因素对于期货市场的 影响。 【本周热点前瞻】 12月8日 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为 ...

ab Global Research CEWC and data preview: modest policy support; weak but mixed growth in Nov CEWC preview: modest policy support, more focus on rebalancing The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) in mid-December will set key macro policy tone for 2026. Similar to previously, key policy targets (e.g. GDP growth, headline fiscal deficit) and details of supportive measures will be released in the NPC meeting next March, not in the CEWC. We expect China to set GDP growth target at 4.5-5% for 2026, ...

[ 四季度宏观政策保持战略定力，呈现托而不举、精准发力的特征，协调推进逆周期与跨周期调节。在 稳住全年经济增长目标的同时，重点为衔接明年经济工作、实现"十五五"良好开局做好充足准备。 ] 2025年12月，第一财经研究院发布的"第一财经首席经济学家信心指数"为50，稍低于上月，持平于50荣 枯线。经济学家们认为，当前我国经济处于弱复苏状态，未来宏观政策将延续宽松基调，为"十五五"开 局奠定坚实的基础。 信心指数：12月信心指数为50 信心指数(2025年12月) 平均值50 最大值50.5 最小值49 第一财经研究院发布的12月"第一财经首席经济学家信心指数"为50，稍低于上月。 毕马威蔡伟认为，总的来看，在稳增长政策发力、外部不确定性缓和的带动下，当前整体经济处于弱复 苏通道。四季度宏观政策保持战略定力，呈现托而不举、精准发力的特征，协调推进逆周期与跨周期调 节。在稳住全年经济增长目标的同时，重点为衔接明年经济工作、实现"十五五"良好开局做好充足准 备。 工银国际程实表示，从宏观经济形势看，外部波动仍有可能反复，但国内政策体系的稳定性、前瞻性和 跨周期调节能力正在不断增强，供给效率提升与需求结构改善同步推进 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "First Financial Chief Economist Confidence Index" for December 2025 is at 50, slightly lower than the previous month, indicating a weak recovery in China's economy, with macro policies expected to maintain a loose tone to support the start of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][5][24]. Economic Indicators - The predicted Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November is 0.72%, up from 0.2% in the previous month, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to be -2.05%, slightly better than the previous month's -2.1% [7][8]. - The forecast for total retail sales of consumer goods in November is a year-on-year growth of 3.09%, an increase from 2.9% in October, driven by the "Double 11" shopping festival and a recovery in dining trends [8][9]. - Industrial added value is predicted to grow by 5.0% year-on-year in November, up from 4.9% in October, reflecting a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [9][10]. - Fixed asset investment is expected to decline by 2.1% year-on-year in November, worsening from the previous month's -1.7%, with pressures from the real estate market and manufacturing sector [10][11]. - Real estate development investment is forecasted to decrease by 15.1% year-on-year in November, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [11][12]. Trade and Financial Data - The trade surplus for November is projected to be $999.87 billion, an increase from $900.7 billion in October, with both imports and exports expected to rise [14][15]. - New loans for November are anticipated to rebound to 6,791 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous month's 2,200 billion yuan [15][16]. - The total social financing amount is expected to reach 2.32 trillion yuan in November, up from 0.81 trillion yuan in October [16][17]. - The M2 money supply growth rate is forecasted at 8.29%, slightly above the previous month's 8.2% [17][18]. Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates - Economists predict little change in the LPR and reserve requirement ratios in the near term, with a focus on maintaining liquidity in the market [18][19]. - The expected exchange rate for the Chinese yuan against the US dollar by the end of November is 7.07, with a potential adjustment to 6.98 by mid-next year [19][20]. Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of November, China's foreign exchange reserves are reported at $33,464 billion, a slight increase from the previous month [20][21]. Policy Outlook - Future fiscal policies are expected to be more proactive, with an emphasis on increasing investment in infrastructure and social sectors to stimulate economic growth [22][24]. - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is anticipated to focus on the strategic significance of 2026 as the start of the "14th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing high-quality development and domestic demand [24][26].

他强调，如何对冲房地产投资下降带来的影响，将是下一步需要重点解决的问题。 12月7日，由联办集团、和讯共同主办、财经中国会承办，主题为"寻找中国经济破局之路"的和讯财经 中国2025年会暨第23届财经风云榜在北京举行。邱晓华在大会演讲中表达了上述观点。 他分析了支撑经济实现目标的三大因素：一是宏观政策积极有效应对，包括积极的财政政策、适度宽松 的货币政策以及消费和投资政策，为经济爬坡过坎提供了有力支撑；二是出口表现超出预期，尽管年初 面临美国"关税战"压力，但企业和进口商的"双抢效应"使得对外经济保持正增长；三是国内市场韧性增 强。 同时，邱晓华也指出当前经济面临的两大突出问题：一是物价持续低位运行，生产价格和消费价格尚未 恢复到正常水平，制约投资、消费和企业效益；二是国内有效需求不足，其中投资需求出现改革开放40 多年来首次负增长，1至11月投资下降约2%，主要受房地产投资两位数下降拖累（房地产投资占总投资 的1/3）。若剔除房地产因素，投资仍保持正增长。 12月7日，国家统计局原局长、阳光保险集团顾问邱晓华在发言中指出，2025年作为"十四五"收官之 年，中国经济总体表现圆满。根据当前发展态势全年5%左右 ...

同时，投资于人成为宏观政策的突出特点。投资于人是一项关乎国家长远发展的重大战略部署。从注重 惠民生与促消费相结合，突出以就业带动增收，不断提高社会保障水平，到建立育儿补贴制度、逐步推 行免费学前教育、推进普惠托育服务体系建设，国家投入更多真金白银聚焦人的全面发展。 可以说，今年我国经济顶住压力、稳步前行，重要"密码"就在于更加积极有为的宏观政策。从统计数据 可以看出，一系列政策措施促进消费潜力有序释放、产业优化升级、新动能成长壮大。以"两重"建设为 例，8000亿元超长期特别国债支持1459个"硬投资"项目建设，在新型城镇化、粮食安全、社会民生等方 面大显身手。宏观政策组合拳发力显效，为实现全年经济社会发展目标提供了坚实支撑。 "十五五"规划建议提出"强化逆周期和跨周期调节，实施更加积极的宏观政策"。当前，我国经济运行总 体平稳、稳中有进的同时，也面临着困难与挑战，特别是外部不稳定不确定性因素依然较多，国内需求 仍显不足，不少企业经营面临困难。为此，宏观政策不能松劲，要以更加积极有为的实招硬招，持续助 力经济发展。 我国政策空间充足、政策工具丰富。宏观政策要用好用足政策空间，提高调控的前瞻性、针对性、有效 性 ...

原标题：积极有为的宏观政策有力有效 扩大有效益的投资、实施提振消费专项行动、保持流动性充裕和金融总量合理增长……今年以来， 我国实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，有效稳增长、稳就业、稳预期，推动经济持续回升向好。下一步， 宏观政策"更加积极有为"的取向不会变，在经济运行中保驾护航、赋能添力的作用将更加突出。 "更加积极有为"的宏观政策取向，是加大逆周期调节力度，更好应对经济运行中的不稳定、不确定 因素的战略部署。今年以来，一系列力度大、含金量高、针对性强的政策措施落地实施，有效稳定预 期、激发活力、提振信心。 同时，投资于人成为宏观政策的突出特点。投资于人是一项关乎国家长远发展的重大战略部署。从 注重惠民生与促消费相结合，突出以就业带动增收，不断提高社会保障水平，到建立育儿补贴制度、逐 步推行免费学前教育、推进普惠托育服务体系建设，国家投入更多真金白银聚焦人的全面发展。 可以说，今年我国经济顶住压力、稳步前行，重要"密码"就在于更加积极有为的宏观政策。从统计 数据可以看出，一系列政策措施促进消费潜力有序释放、产业优化升级、新动能成长壮大。以"两重"建 设为例，8000亿元超长期特别国债支持1459个"硬投资"项目建 ...