转自：新华财经 近日，进出口银行福建省分行成功运用新型政策性金融工具，为湄洲湾港秀屿港区莆头作业区5号、6号 泊位工程项目提供资金支持。本次项目落地是该行以创新金融服务精准破解基础设施项目融资难题，全 力服务福建"海丝"核心区建设和现代化港口群构建的生动实践。 湄洲湾港作为我国沿海主要港口和国家重点发展的深水港之一，其扩能升级对于福建省乃至东南沿海优 化开放布局、保障产业链供应链安全稳定具有举足轻重的意义。秀屿港区莆头作业区5号、6号泊位工程 的建设，将直接提升港区大型化、专业化泊位能力，对于吸引临港产业集聚、增强外贸货物吞吐效能、 服务"一带一路"互联互通至关重要。 进出口银行福建省分行深刻认识到该项目的战略价值，主动将自身工作融入国家与地方发展大局。在总 行党委坚强领导下，分行将支持该项目作为落实国家关于运用政策性金融工具扩大有效投资、稳定宏观 经济大盘决策部署的关键抓手。分行前中后台紧密协同，组建专项服务团队，迅速对接项目单位，深入 一线调研融资需求，以高度的政治责任感和政策性金融的使命担当，全力推动工具资金精准、高效直达 项目建设的"主动脉"。 在项目推进过程中，进出口银行福建省分行专项团队践行"融资 ...

Investment Outlook - Fixed asset investment is expected to stabilize in 2026, with a significant decline in growth observed in the second half of 2025, where the investment growth rate fell to -6.2% in Q3, down 8.2 percentage points from Q2[12] - Despite the decline, capital formation growth remained positive, with a Q3 growth rate of 2.3%, only slightly down from 3.2% in Q2[12] - Electricity consumption in the secondary and tertiary industries has shown a recovery since July, indicating resilient investment momentum[10] Policy Support - A new policy financial tool of 500 billion yuan was fully deployed by the end of October 2025, expected to support approximately 7 trillion yuan in total investment across over 2,300 projects[41] - The Central Economic Work Conference in December 2025 emphasized the need for investment stabilization in 2026, with clear directives for increasing central budget investments and optimizing local government bond usage[41] Economic Stability - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to drive significant project approvals and construction in 2026, potentially accelerating investment growth[10] - Local government leadership changes in 2026 may further emphasize economic stability, historically correlating with a rebound in economic growth prior to national congresses[10] Monetary and Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a "front-loaded" approach in 2026, with a rapid issuance of new special bonds anticipated in the first half of the year[46] - Monetary policy is likely to align with fiscal measures, actively supporting economic growth in the first half of 2026, similar to actions taken in 2025[51]

稳增长政策发力显效，12 月宏观经济景气度超预期回升 ———— 2025 年 12 月 PMI 数据点评 王青 闫骏 冯琳 事件：根据国家统计局公布的数据，2025 年 12 月，中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 50.1%， 比 11 月回升 0.9 个百分点；12 月非制造业商务活动指数为 50.2%，比 12 月回升 0.7 个百分点，其 中，建筑业商务活动指数为 52.8%，比 11 月上升 3.2 个百分点，服务业 PMI 指数为 49.7%，比 11 月回 升 0.2 个百分点；12 月综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.7%，比 11 月上升 1.0 个百分点。 12 月 PMI 数据要点解读如下： 12 月制造业 PMI 指数比上月大幅回升 0.9 个百分点至 50.1%，4 月以来首次回到扩张区间，超出市 场预期。首先，前期稳增长政策发力显效，叠加出口韧性偏强，12 月市场需求大幅修复，制造业新订 单指数回升 1.6 个百分点至 50.8%。9 月末 10 月初推出"两个 5000 亿"稳增长政策，其中 5000 亿新 型政策性金融工具已在 10 月投放完毕，对基建投资和制造业投资的拉动效应在 ...

Group 1: Infrastructure Development - The Qingdao Jiaozhou Bay Second Undersea Tunnel is a major infrastructure project, measuring 17.48 kilometers, and is currently the largest and longest of its kind in the world, with a construction challenge that includes complex geological conditions [1][2] - The project aims to enhance traffic efficiency and reduce costs between Qingdao's urban area and Huangdao District, addressing the saturation of existing transportation links [2] - The China Development Bank (CDB) has provided significant financial support, including a customized financing plan and a total of 20.32 billion yuan in loans to facilitate the project's progress [2] Group 2: Marine Economy - The development of a modern marine fishery industry park is underway, focusing on the Atlantic salmon, which requires a land-sea relay model for successful cultivation [3] - The park aims to create a comprehensive industrial chain that includes research, breeding, farming, processing, and support services, leveraging digital management and automation [3][4] - CDB has provided 90 million yuan in new policy financial tools to support the project, addressing the capital needs of enterprises [4][5] Group 3: Cultural and Historical Preservation - Qingdao is focusing on the transformation and upgrading of its old port and city areas to protect historical culture while promoting urban development [6][7] - The Qingdao International Cruise Port area is being developed to connect new and old urban areas, enhancing the integration of cultural heritage and modern infrastructure [7] - CDB has issued loans totaling 3.1 billion yuan and 60 million yuan in new policy financial tools to support the transformation of the old port area into a modern cultural tourism hub [7][8] Group 4: Water Resource Management - The newly completed Gonglu Reservoir, with a total capacity of 2.11 billion cubic meters, is crucial for addressing Qingdao's water scarcity issues [9][10] - The reservoir will not only secure water supply but also improve the balance between urban and agricultural water use, contributing to food security and ecological sustainability [9] - CDB has provided 3.28 billion yuan in medium- and long-term loans and 915 million yuan from the infrastructure investment fund to support the reservoir's construction [10] Group 5: Future Development Plans - The CDB plans to continue supporting Qingdao's development by focusing on building a modern industrial system and enhancing marine economic capabilities [11] - The bank aims to contribute to the construction of an innovative industrial system and support key areas such as technological innovation, advanced manufacturing, and ecological protection [11]

判断汇率是否处于均衡区间，更关键的是看经常项目差额占GDP的比重，"目前中国这一比重约为 2%-3%，处于正负4%的合理区间内，说明人民币汇率总体保持均衡。" 临近年末，外汇市场经历离岸人民币对美元汇率破"7"：12月25日，离岸人民币对美元汇率开盘升破7.0 元关口，盘中最高触及6.9985，创15个月以来新高。在岸人民币同步走强，报7.0066，创2024年9月以来 新高。 "从实际情况来看，近期人民币的升值更多是短期利多因素占据上风，并非意味着升值新周期的开 启。"中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛近日接受中青报·中青网记者采访时表示，推动近期人民币升值的 短期因素较为明确：一方面，美元走势呈现疲软态势，11月美元指数曾升至100以上，随后持续回落并 跌破98，美元走弱为人民币升值提供了外部支撑；另一方面，中国经济基本面表现稳健，2025年前11个 月，中国货物贸易顺差达1.0758万亿美元，充足的外汇储备为人民币汇率提供了坚实基础，且全年5% 左右的经济增长目标基本能够实现，进一步增强了市场对人民币的信心。 展望明年人民币汇率走势，业内人士认为，人民币汇率大概率将延续"双向波动、温和回升"的格局。在 首都经 ...

从中国来看，汇丰银行环球投资研究大中华区首席经济学家刘晶表示，得益于2024年第四季度以来 推出的一系列宽松政策对经济活动的托举，以及出口韧性提供的支持，预计中国将顺利实现2025年全年 经济5%左右的增速目标。2026年是"十五五"开局之年，中国经济将继续推进结构性转型并保持合理增 长，在进出口更加趋于平衡的同时，包括消费和投资在内的国内需求将成为驱动增长的主要动能。 "扩大内需将成为2026年主要的政策重点，也是中国实现经济高质量发展的关键战略。"在刘晶看 来，"十五五"规划建议将居民消费率（2024年居民消费率为39.9%）的明显提高列为高质量发展重要目 标之一，凸显出决策层对于提振消费的重视。 从短期来看，汇丰预计"以旧换新"政策仍将持续，但中长期来说，服务消费将是更为关键的增长领 域。刘晶指出，国家发展改革委在2025年12月的署名文章中提到一系列健全扩大内需体制机制建设的措 施，包括落实带薪错峰休假、稳步扩大免费教育范围、推行由常住地登记户口提供基本公共服务制度 等。这些政策的稳步推进，将有效增加居民，尤其是城市新居民的可支配收入，为消费增长提供持续动 能。 另一方面，汇丰预计固定资产投资将有所回 ...

投资既是当期需求，也是未来供给。扩大有效投资，是推动高质量发展的战略之举。 新华社北京12月24日电 题：激活有效投资 打开经济发展新空间 开栏的话： 2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年。 一年来，面对错综复杂的国际形势和艰巨繁重的国内改革发展稳定任务，以习近平同志为核心的党中央 团结带领全党全国各族人民迎难而上、奋力拼搏，坚定不移贯彻新发展理念、推动高质量发展，有效应 对一系列重大风险挑战，经济社会发展主要目标将顺利完成。 即日起，新华社推出"2025年终经济观察"系列报道，回望中国经济一年来顶压前行、向新向优发展的不 平凡历程，反映各地区各部门深入贯彻落实党中央决策部署，苦干实干、不断开创发展新局面的生动实 践，展现中国经济不惧风雨、破浪前进的强大韧性和底气。 近期召开的中央经济工作会议强调，"必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合"。记者在调研中感受到， 推动投资于物和投资于人互促共进，促进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动，我国扩大有效投资潜力巨 大、空间广阔。 "作为国家150项重大水利工程之一，花滩子水库工程自2024年开工以来，参建各方科学规划、精心组 织，确保项目按计划高效推进，目前已经完成工程总投资 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the fiscal policy for 2025 will be "more proactive," leading to significant increases in both narrow and broad fiscal deficits, with narrow deficit expected to rise by 39% and broad deficit by 27% [1][13][14] - The issuance of government bonds will be accelerated, with net supply expected to increase by 128% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while broad fiscal expenditure is projected to show a "U"-shaped trend in 2024 and a "front high and back low" trend in 2025 [1][14] - The structure of fiscal revenue is improving, with a target growth rate for non-tax revenue set at -14.2%, indicating a reduced reliance on non-tax income [2][15][16] Group 2 - The expansion of debt resolution measures and diversification of debt resolution methods are highlighted, including the issuance of special bonds and policies targeting corporate arrears and PPP projects [2][16][17] - The expected slowdown in infrastructure investment growth in the second half of 2025 is attributed to several factors, including the completion of prior funding projects and the diversion of funds to debt resolution [3][18][19] - For 2026, the central economic work conference emphasizes the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy, with expectations for a slight increase in fiscal strength compared to 2025 [4][20][21] Group 3 - The anticipated fiscal revenue growth for 2026 is projected to rebound to 3%-5%, driven by price increases and tax policy adjustments [5][26][27] - The introduction of new policy financial tools is expected to significantly impact fixed asset investment, with an estimated investment scale of 1.5-2 trillion yuan in 2026 [6][28][29] - The report indicates a structural shift in consumption patterns, with a focus on new types of consumption and service consumption, as traditional durable goods consumption is expected to slow down [8][32][33] Group 4 - The report discusses the expansion of debt resolution to include non-hidden debts, with measures to clear local government arrears to enterprises [9][34][35] - The importance of improving the local tax system is highlighted, with potential reforms in consumption tax expected to accelerate [10][36][37] - The overall impact on the asset side suggests that continued fiscal strength and proactive measures will support nominal growth and micro-activity in 2026 [11][37]

广 发证券资 深宏观分析师 吴棋滢 wuqiying@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 报告摘要 第一， 2025年财政政策基调是"更加积极的财政政策"，因此狭广义财政赤字均大幅提升，狭义赤字规模增加39%；广义赤字规模增加27%。这一则带动广义赤字率 显著提高；二则政府债净供给创近年新高；三则对2025年经济活动形成有力支持。总量扩大之外，2025年发债节奏显著前倾，带动上半年政府债净供给同比 128%，下半年同比转增为降；受此影响，上半年广义支出累计同比8.9%，1-11月累计同比回落至4.5%。广义财政支出趋势于2024年呈"U"型变化，2025年呈"前高 后低"走势，与这两年的经济走势、权益资产走势基本同步。 第二， 2025年财政领域的亮点之一是财政收入结构有所改善，年初预算草案中非税收入的目标增速为-14.2%，反映了财政降低对非税收入依赖度的决心。1-11月 非税收入累计同比-3.7%，为近年来相对低点，非税收入占比也较去年有所回落；其中1-9月罚没收入累计同比-7%，较去年下行22个百分点。而税收收入则在下半 年表现较好，主要源于"两新"、金属等活跃行业的带动及税收政策的调整。 第三， 2 ...

内需是拉动经济增长主动力与稳定锚。今年以来，针对经济运行中面临的风险挑战，各地区、各部门按 照党中央决策部署，加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，及时出台和有效落实一系列扩大国内需求、促 进产业升级、畅通经济循环的政策措施，对于支持经济平稳运行发挥了重要作用。 近期召开的中央经济工作会议提出，我国经济发展中老问题、新挑战仍然不少，外部环境变化影响加 深，国内供强需弱矛盾突出，重点领域风险隐患较多。 在部署2026年经济工作时，会议将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"放在了首位。"大国经济的重要 特征是回旋余地大，内部可循环，能够独立自主、自立自强。"中央财办分管日常工作的副主任、中央 农办主任韩文秀表示，要进一步开拓视野、创新思路，努力在扩大消费和投资、发展科技和产业、促进 城乡融合和区域协调发展等方面，培育形成更多新的增长点，开辟发展新空间。 投资是扩大内需的重要抓手。根据中央经济工作会议部署，2026年要推动投资止跌回稳，适当增加中央 预算内投资规模，优化实施"两重"项目，优化地方政府专项债券用途管理，继续发挥新型政策性金融工 具作用，有效激发民间投资活力。高质量推进城市更新。 在国家政策和金融管理部门的指引 ...