宏 观 总 量 2026 年 3 月 6 日 2026 年两会专题之 政府工作报告七问七答 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 报告导读： 摘要： 2025 年 3 月 5 日，十四届人大四次会议召开，《政府工作报告》发布。年度主要经济指标，如 GDP 增 速目标、CPI 目标，赤字率、赤字金额、特别国债、地方专项债等主要目标悉数公布。同时，宏观政策整 体框架，货币、财政政策取向，经济重点工作亦明确。 1. 今年经济工作主要指标，以及财政、货币政策，是否超市场预期？ 2. 如何看待 GDP 目标增速有所下调？ 3. 今年经济工作重点聚焦在哪些方面，特别是有哪些增量信息或新提法？ 4. 如何看待今年货币政策发力空间？ 5. 政策对于房地产态度如何？ 6. 政策对于"反内卷"是否有新变化？ 7. 政府目标数据中是否有"暗藏玄机"的隐藏内容？ （正文） 资料来源：2026 年政府工作报告、中国政府网、国泰君安期货研究 1. 今年经济工作主要指标，以及财政、货币政策，是否超市场预期？ 根据报告学习体会，本文针对市场较为关心的七个问题进行回答探讨： 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 ...

%% %% %% %% 固定收益丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 政策性金融工具，能撬多少倍？——"财政的底 色"系列报告（四） 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 熊锋 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BWI629 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 政策性金融工具有显著的"准财政"属性，它能发挥市场化运作优势，撬动更多民间资本参与， 提高投资效率。2026 年 2 月国常会提到"要加力提效用好新型政策性金融工具"，我们预计 2026 年新型政策性金融工具规模或将保持高位，延续"精准支持、高效投放、结构优化"的导 向。随着项目最低资本金比例的结构性调降，理论上政策性金融工具的撬动倍数上升。我们手 工收集并计算了各省、部分披露项目的撬动倍数情况，新型政策性金融工具的撬动倍数集中在 10 倍左右，但在实践中可能存在高估。 %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table ...

2026 年 3 月 6 日 2026 年政府工作报告解读 稳进·向新 证券分析师 钟正生 投资咨询资格编号 S1060520090001 ZHONGZHENGSHENG93 4@pingan.com.cn 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 事项： 2026 年 3 月 5 日上午，李强总理向十四届全国人大四次会议作《政府工作报告》。 平安观点： 宏 观 报 告 宏 观 动 态 跟 踪 证 券 研 究 报 告 2026 年经济增长目标设定和宏观政策总体安排取向稳健，更加注重调结构、 防风险、促改革，将为中国经济"十五五"起好步打牢基础。 一、 对增长目标的理解。2026 年GDP 增速目标定在 4.5-5%，在实际工作中努力争 取更好结果。国务院解读《政府工作报告》新闻发布会指出，"按照到 2035 年 人均 GDP 达到 2 万美元以上、比 2020 年翻一番这样一个远景目标来倒算，未 来十年我国经济年均增长 4.17%以上就可 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 2026 年 03 月 06 日 宏观点评 证券分析师 邮箱：hemy＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 学习政府工作报告后的七点思考 2026 年政府工作报告针对今年重点工作进行了系统全面的部署和安排， 并对"十五五"规划《纲要（草案）》作了简要报告。整体而言，与 2025 年政 策大幅"加力扩围"不同，"提质增效"成为今年经济工作的关键所在。目标方 面，降量提质，在淡化总量目标的同时对于调结构、防风险、促改革等方面提 出更高要求。取向方面，稳量增效，在保持总量规模基本稳定的同时，在政策 精准性、协同性、可操作性等方面给予更多关注。策略方面，问题导向，针对 经济系统堵点卡点针对性强化政策配置，为实现全年预期增长目标注入更多确 定性。思路方面，创新为要，将加紧培育壮大新动能和加快高水平科技自立自 强作为"十五五"时期经济工作的重中之重。亮点方面，民生为大，牢固树立 和践行正确政绩观，站在全局视角更大力度保障和改善民生。保障方面，安全 为基，以高水平安全为高质量发展保驾护航。战略方面，规划引领，新质生产 力、高水平科技自立自强、民生保障、安全发展等领域值得 ...

2026 年 3 月 6 日 总量研究 积极谋势，务实奋进 ——2026 年政府工作报告精神学习 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：王佳雯 执业证书编号：S0930524010001 021-52523870 wangjiawen@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 分析师：周可 执业证书编号：S0930524120001 021-52523677 zhouke@ebscn.com 相关研报 充分挖掘经济潜能，苦练内功应对挑战—— 2025 年中央经济工作会议精神学习 （2025-12-12） 积极有为，实现"十五五"良好开局—— 2025 年 12 月政治局会议精神学习（2025- 12-09） "十五五"高水平对外开放的战略升级—— 《"十五五"规划》系列报告四（2025- 11-19） 理解"十五五"规划的三个定量指标—— 《"十五五"规划》系列报告三（2025- 10-29） 坚持高质量发展，续写 ...

本报告导读： 2026 年政府工作报告优化经济增长目标，着力调结构、防风险、促改革，推动投资 止跌回稳。进一步强化中国市场的稳定预期，新兴科技是主线，价值也会有春天。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 黄维驰(分析师) | | | 021-38032684 | | | huangweichi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520110005 | | | 郭胤含(分析师) | | | 021-38031691 | | | guoyinhan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524100001 | | | 张逸飞(分析师) | | | 021-38038662 | | | zhangyifei@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080008 | | | 田开轩(分析师) | | | 021-38038673 | | | tiankaixuan@gtht.com | | 登记 ...

2月24日，2026年广东省高质量发展大会召开。在"科技与金融创新赋能产业融合"分会场上，国家开发 银行广东省分行副行长蔡丹华在接受采访时表示，国家开发银行将着力擦亮"制造业业务"这张新名片， 深化与地方政府和龙头企业的战略合作，力争在广东制造业领域的贷款投放实现两位数增长。 用"三链"服务大湾区国际科技创新中心建设 2025年12月，中央经济工作会议提出建设三大国际科技创新中心。蔡丹华表示，国家开发银行将从创新 链、产业链、资金链3个方面服务好粤港澳大湾区国际科技创新中心建设。 一是在创新链方面，发挥基础设施银行职能定位优势，助力广东超前布局重大科技基础设施；二是在产 业链方面，立足于广东省全产业链优势及制造业当家的要求，支持省级中试平台建设，加快把科技成果 转化为现实生产力，优化提升石化、电子等传统产业转型升级，培育壮大新能源汽车、集成电路、低空 经济等新兴产业和未来产业；三是在资金链方面，以新型政策性金融工具、研发贷款、项目贷款等全生 命周期产品谱系，提升金融服务供给能力，继续助力广东省科技创新与制造业深度融合、互促双强。 重点支持"广东强芯"工程、"智改数转"等 今年全省高质量发展大会主题是"制造业与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The IMF has adjusted the global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous prediction, with China remaining a key driver of global economic growth [2][10]. Economic Outlook - KPMG's report anticipates that under current policy support, China's domestic economic growth will remain stable in 2026, with an expected recovery in demand as macro policies are effectively implemented [2][10]. - The report indicates that China's economy is projected to reach 140 trillion yuan in 2025, with a real GDP growth of 5.0%, achieving the target growth rate set at the beginning of the year [3][11]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The economy is experiencing structural disparities in supply and demand, with traditional industries facing challenges due to intense competition and slow capacity clearance, leading to weak demand and supply expansion [3][11]. - The report highlights the need for coordinated efforts from both demand and supply sides, as well as improvements in institutional mechanisms and external environments to promote sustained recovery in domestic demand [4][12]. Investment and Consumption - Investment in key areas and major projects needs to be supported to stabilize effective investment, while enhancing social welfare investments to stimulate consumer potential [4][12]. - The retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 3.7% in 2025, with a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous year, indicating a shift towards quality and experiential consumption [4][13]. Policy Support and Financial Tools - Continuous policy support is essential to consolidate the recovery foundation and stimulate growth, including innovative use of financial tools such as special government bonds and policy financing [5][15]. - The establishment of the National Venture Capital Guidance Fund aims to attract diverse capital to support the development of strategic emerging industries [6][15]. Macroeconomic Management - Fiscal policy should play a more prominent role in counter-cyclical adjustments, focusing on effectively expanding domestic demand and improving policy implementation effectiveness [7][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of enhancing the business environment and supporting enterprises in expanding international markets to create a virtuous cycle of income growth and domestic demand expansion [7][16].

Core Viewpoint - The recent State Council meeting emphasized the need to innovate and improve policy measures to promote effective investment, aiming to stabilize investment and enhance its role in expanding domestic demand, optimizing supply, and benefiting people's livelihoods [3]. Investment Trends - In 2025, China's fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 48,518.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% from the previous year, indicating downward pressure on investment due to local government debt and economic transition factors [4]. - Key sectors showed rapid investment growth, with industrial investment increasing by 2.6%, contributing 0.9 percentage points to overall investment growth [4]. - Infrastructure investment in key areas saw significant increases, such as pipeline transportation investment growing by 36.0% and internet-related services investment increasing by 23.8% [5]. Equipment Investment - Equipment and tool purchase investment rose by 11.8% in 2025, contributing 1.8 percentage points to total investment growth, with a focus on supporting over 8,400 equipment renewal projects through special bonds [6]. - The government plans to continue large-scale equipment renewal policies into 2026, with an initial allocation of 93.6 billion yuan in special bonds for various sectors [7]. Government Investment Strategy - The State Council meeting highlighted the importance of precise government investment to avoid inefficient and redundant construction, emphasizing the need for high-quality project planning and collaboration between investment, fiscal, and financial policies [8]. - The government aims to enhance support for private investment through a comprehensive policy package, addressing financing costs and barriers for private enterprises [9]. - The focus will be on increasing government investment in livelihood projects and utilizing new policy financial tools to attract more private and social capital [9].

Group 1 - The State Council's recent meeting emphasizes the need to innovate and improve policy measures to promote effective investment, focusing on utilizing central budget investments, ultra-long-term special bonds, local government special bonds, and new policy financial tools [1][2] - The National Bureau of Statistics indicates a projected 3.8% year-on-year decline in national fixed asset investment by 2025, with traditional sectors like infrastructure and real estate seeing reduced investment, while high-tech manufacturing and services are experiencing growth [1][2] - The meeting's deployment aims to stabilize investment and enhance quality and efficiency in the long term, utilizing a combination of policy tools to create a new rhythm for investment stability [1][5] Group 2 - Effective investment requires ensuring ample funding, with a focus on a collaborative investment funding guarantee system involving national guidance, market participation, and cooperation between central and local governments [2][4] - The meeting identifies five key areas for investment: infrastructure, urban renewal, public services, emerging industries, and future industries, promoting a balance between strengthening existing capabilities and addressing shortcomings [3][4] - Various market entities must work together, with central enterprises expected to lead in strategic emerging industries, while policies are in place to support private investment, thereby lowering financing barriers and costs [4][5] Group 3 - The meeting highlights the importance of timely macroeconomic policies and the need for early arrangement of fiscal funds to ensure effective project implementation [4][5] - The comprehensive deployment from the meeting aligns with the central economic work conference's directive to combine investments in physical and human capital, aiming for a more efficient accumulation of material capital and systematic cultivation of human capital [5]