股债跷跷板依然主导，关注长端债券机会 摘 要： 据 21 世纪经济报道，规模高达 5000 亿元的新型政策性金融工 具将出，重点投向新兴产业、基础设施等领域，国家开发银行、中 国农业发展银行、中国进出口银行等政策性银行参与其中。央行新 增支农支小再贷款额度 1000 亿元，引导和鼓励金融机构加大对北 京、河北、吉林、山东、甘肃等受灾地区的经营主体特别是小微企 业、个体工商户，以及农业、养殖企业和农户的信贷支持力度。随 着 7 月官方制造业 PMI 为 49.3，环比下降 0.4 个百分点，制造业景 气水平有所回落，综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2，下降 0.5 个百分点， 下半年在保证流动性宽松的总基调之下，关键的重大基础设施，重 大项目依然可期，逆周期调节视情况适时加码。 进入三季度，往往是债市发行的高峰期，和债市需求的较弱时 期，当然近些年，债市的发行有前置发行的特点，但是债市三季度 供需规律一定程度依然适用，叠加风险偏好不断修复，股债跷跷板 持续利空债市，长端债市供需矛盾或更加突出，利空因素更加明显。 7 月政治局会议召开，定调了下半年的政策基调，积极的财政政策 和适度宽松的货币政策，是下半年的主基调 ...

宏 观 及 期 指 点 评 2025 年 8 月 22 日 外资唱多中国股市 股指期货震荡上行走高 IF2509 和 IC2509 合约再创近 3 年多来新高 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成 具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作 出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【行情前瞻要点】 8 月 22 日，股指期货主力合约 IF2509、IH2509、IC2509 和 IM2509 小幅高开；开盘后，震荡上行，小 幅上涨；IF2509 和 IC2509 均再创近 3 年多来新高，IH2509 再创近 2 年多来新高；IC 主力合约再创近 3 年 多来新高。外资机构加速入场布局 A 股。高盛、瑞银、摩根士丹利等外资机构的最新研报观点认为，A 股市 场情绪显著回暖、中期展望向好。 ...

自今年5月以来，多地围绕新型政策性金融工具开展政策宣讲会或者项目筹备会。近期，部分 地方更是进一步梳理出入库项目清单，明确了申报基金的金额。 从地方透露信息来看，新型政策性金融工具的资金规模为5000亿元， 重点投向新兴产 业、基础设施等领域，具体包括数字经济、人工智能、低空经济、消费领域、绿色低碳、 农业农村、交通物流、城市基础设施等 ，国家开发银行、中国农业发展银行、中国进出口 银行等政策性银行参与其中。 不仅地方在积极准备，中央政府层面也在释放信号，将加大稳投资的力度。8月18日，国务院 第九次全体会议表示，要加力扩大有效投资，发挥重大工程引领带动作用，适应需求变化更多 投资于人、服务于民生，积极促进民间投资。8月1日，国家发展改革委相关负责人表示，近 期，国家发展改革委将报批加快设立投放新型政策性金融工具。 财达证券常务副总经理胡恒松对21世纪经济报道记者表示，新型政策性金融工具定位为"准财 政"工具，由发改部门筛选项目清单，政策性银行发行金融债融资提供项目资本金，财政部提 供贴息支持。区别于2022年政策性开发性金融工具，本次新型政策性金融工具使用范围更加广 泛，有交通物流、消费领域基础设施，但更加 ...

Core Insights - The new policy financial tools are aimed at stabilizing investment and promoting innovation, with a total funding scale of 500 billion yuan, focusing on emerging industries and infrastructure [1][6][8] - Local governments are actively preparing and identifying projects for funding, with a focus on high-tech and socially beneficial projects [3][4][5] Group 1: Policy and Funding Mechanism - The new policy financial tools are classified as "quasi-fiscal" instruments, with project lists screened by development and reform departments, and funding provided by policy banks [2][8] - The tools are designed to address capital shortages for project construction, lower financing thresholds, and expand effective investment [6][8] Group 2: Project Identification and Preparation - Various regions, including Hubei and Guangdong, are conducting project preparation meetings to align with national strategies and identify high-quality projects [3][5] - Specific projects have been identified, such as 11 projects in Shanxi with a total investment of 13.369 billion yuan, requiring 2.186 billion yuan from the new financial tools [4][6] Group 3: Economic Context and Challenges - The introduction of these tools comes in response to declining investment growth, with fixed asset investment growth slowing to 1.6% in July [8][9] - There are concerns regarding the effectiveness of policy banks in investing in emerging industries, which require specialized judgment [9]

Group 1 - The enthusiasm for public fundraising has increased as the secondary market rebounds, with 16 public funds participating in fundraising projects exceeding 4.5 billion yuan in the last three months, and the highest project increase reaching 344% [1] - The demand for public fundraising is expected to remain strong in the second half of the year, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions financing, as over 40% of disclosed projects this year are related to financing [1] - The top five sectors for net inflow include domestic software, military industry, semiconductors, large finance, and new energy vehicles, while the top five concepts include artificial intelligence, Huawei supply chain, Xiaomi concept stocks, domestic chips, and cloud computing data centers [1] Group 2 - New policy financial tools are being expedited for approval, with local governments holding meetings to capture policy dividends, and infrastructure investment is expected to rebound in the second half of the year [3] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has lowered the initial public holding threshold for "A+H" issuers to 10% or a market value of 3 billion HKD, which is expected to encourage more A-share companies to list in Hong Kong [3] Group 3 - The government has included "Artificial Intelligence+" in its work report for 2024, with policies expected to be implemented soon, indicating a strong growth potential for the AI sector, particularly in hardware [5] - The next generation of large models, such as GPT-5, is anticipated to be a key variable in the AI industry's future, with expectations of significant improvements in performance and cost-effectiveness [5] Group 4 - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a historical high, with major indices also hitting yearly peaks, indicating a clear acceleration in market activity, although regulatory scrutiny remains [7] - The market is entering a new acceleration phase, with signs of increased participation from various funds, particularly bank wealth management and public funds, expected to be significant contributors in the second half of the year [7]

Core Viewpoint - The new policy financial tools proposed by the central government in 2025 and the existing special bonds have distinct differences yet can work synergistically to enhance project financing and support high-quality economic development [1][20]. Group 1: Key Differences Between New Policy Financial Tools and Special Bonds - The new policy financial tools are operated by three policy banks and are market-driven with flexible funding sources, while special bonds are issued by local governments and are considered "explicit debts" [3][4]. - New policy financial tools focus on front-end capital supplementation for projects, whereas special bonds are aimed at back-end project construction [7][8]. - The new tools operate under a market mechanism with risk borne by the market, while special bonds are closely tied to government finances and rely on local government credit [5][6]. Group 2: Collaborative Synergy - The collaboration between new policy financial tools and special bonds creates a "1+1>2" effect through capital supplementation, field collaboration, and financing innovation [8]. - New policy financial tools can directly inject capital or provide interest subsidies to alleviate the capital pressure of special bond projects, enhancing project initiation [9]. - The two tools complement each other in their focus areas, with special bonds emphasizing infrastructure and livelihood projects, while new tools strengthen support for technology and innovation sectors [10]. Group 3: Practical Implementation and Compliance - The collaborative application of new policy financial tools and special bonds must ensure policy compliance and avoid negative list projects [12][13]. - Capital contribution rules dictate that special bond projects must maintain a capital ratio of at least 20%, while new tools can contribute up to 60% of total capital [14]. - Project selection should prioritize areas with overlapping policies and significant strategic importance, ensuring comprehensive revenue coverage [15]. Group 4: Operational Efficiency - Pilot regions can utilize a "self-review" mechanism to expedite project approvals, significantly enhancing operational efficiency [16]. - Non-pilot regions can simplify review processes for eligible projects, allowing for quicker access to funding [17]. - Risk management requires comprehensive monitoring and clear exit strategies for equity investments made through new policy financial tools [18][19].

Macro Policy - The macro policy focus for the second half of the year is "sustained efforts and timely enhancements" to support economic growth [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the importance of steady employment and expanding domestic demand as key areas for policy preparation [2] Fiscal Policy - The Ministry of Finance plans to utilize a more proactive fiscal policy, increasing counter-cyclical adjustments [3] - There will be an acceleration in the issuance and use of ultra-long special government bonds and local government special bonds to create tangible work volume [3] - The fiscal policy will support traditional industry upgrades, emerging industry growth, and future industry planning through various financial tools [3] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring ample liquidity and guiding financial institutions to maintain reasonable credit growth [3] - The focus will be on improving the efficiency of fund usage and enhancing the execution and supervision of interest rate policies [3] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to economic growth in the first half of the year, highlighting its role as a primary growth driver [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission aims to stabilize investment and promote consumption, enhancing government investment project management [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to implement strategies to expand domestic demand and support the industrial economy [4] Consumer Policy - The Ministry of Finance will improve the policy framework to support consumption in sectors like elderly care, childcare, culture, and tourism [5] - There will be a focus on enhancing the duty-free shop policy and promoting healthy development in the duty-free retail business [5] Employment and Livelihood - Employment stability is a priority, with plans to expand job opportunities in key sectors such as digital economy and green economy [7] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs aims to achieve a grain production target of approximately 1.4 trillion jin for the year [7][8] - Comprehensive measures will be taken to ensure food, energy, and supply chain security while enhancing public safety and disaster prevention [8]

Macro Policy - The macro policy focus for the second half of the year is "sustained efforts and timely enhancements" [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes solid work in development reform, focusing on major changes, important indicators, and significant issues to stabilize employment and expand domestic demand [2][3] Fiscal Policy - The Ministry of Finance aims to utilize a more proactive fiscal policy and increase counter-cyclical adjustments [3] - Plans include accelerating the issuance and use of ultra-long special bonds and local government special bonds to generate physical workload [3] - The fiscal policy will support traditional industry upgrades, emerging industry growth, and future industry layout through various financial tools [3] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring ample liquidity and guiding financial institutions to maintain reasonable credit growth [3] - The focus will be on improving the efficiency of fund usage and enhancing the execution and supervision of interest rate policies [3] Domestic Demand Expansion - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to economic growth in the first half of the year, continuing to be a primary growth driver [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to stabilize investment and promote consumption, enhancing government investment project management and stimulating private investment [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement strategies to expand domestic demand and support the industrial economy [4] Consumer Policy - The Ministry of Finance will improve the policy system supporting consumption in services such as elderly care, childcare, culture, and tourism [5] - Policies will include enhancing duty-free shop regulations and promoting healthy development of duty-free retail businesses [5] Employment and Livelihood - Ensuring livelihood security is a key focus for the second half of the year [6] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security will implement job expansion plans in key sectors and promote employment growth in digital, green, and nighttime economies [7] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will focus on grain production and poverty alleviation, aiming for a grain output target of approximately 1.4 trillion jin [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations in the face of complex economic challenges, highlighting eight key policy signals from the recent Central Political Bureau meeting [3][4]. Group 1: Understanding China's Economic Advantages - The meeting identifies four specific advantages of China's economy: the socialist system, a large market, a complete industrial system, and abundant talent resources, which together create a composite advantage that can effectively respond to external uncertainties [5][6]. - China's unique system allows for centralized decision-making while also stimulating market vitality, enabling rapid resource mobilization during crises [5]. - The country has a population of 1.4 billion, over 400 million middle-income individuals, and a GDP per capita of around $12,000, with a significant number of highly educated individuals contributing to its competitive edge [6]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Policy Direction - The Central Political Bureau meeting stresses the need to maintain a stable growth rate of over 4.5% to achieve long-term economic goals, with a target GDP growth of 5% for this year [8]. - In the first half of the year, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, supported by proactive macroeconomic policies, and the IMF has raised its growth forecast for China to 4.8% [7][8]. Group 3: Macro Policy Implementation - The meeting calls for the continued implementation of macroeconomic policies, including the issuance of long-term special government bonds and the use of new policy financial tools to enhance policy effectiveness [9][10]. - The government plans to accelerate the issuance of bonds and maintain a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth and reduce financing costs [10][11]. Group 4: Stimulating Domestic Demand - The meeting highlights the need to implement actions to boost consumption, with retail sales growing by 5% year-on-year in the first half of the year, contributing significantly to GDP growth [13][14]. - There is a focus on enhancing private investment and expanding effective investment, particularly in high-end manufacturing and technology sectors [15]. Group 5: Technological Innovation - The meeting emphasizes the importance of deepening reforms in the technology innovation system and fostering the integration of technological and industrial innovation [16][17]. - Policies will support the development of emerging industries with international competitiveness and enhance the financing channels for technology enterprises [17]. Group 6: Foreign Trade and Investment Stability - The meeting stresses the need to stabilize foreign trade and investment, with exports growing by 6% year-on-year in the first half of the year [19][20]. - Policies will focus on expanding market access for foreign investment and enhancing the effectiveness of open platforms to attract foreign capital [21][22]. Group 7: Risk Management - The meeting underscores the importance of managing risks in key areas, particularly local government debt, and emphasizes the prohibition of new hidden debts [23][24]. - The ongoing process of local government debt resolution is expected to positively impact regional economic vitality [25]. Group 8: Capital Market Stability - The meeting aims to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, with significant improvements observed in the stock market since the second quarter [26][27]. - Continued macroeconomic support is expected to stabilize investor confidence and enhance the financing capabilities of enterprises [28].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is accelerating the approval and establishment of new policy financial instruments to boost infrastructure investment and support economic stability, with a focus on both traditional and emerging sectors [1][2][3]. Group 1: New Policy Financial Instruments - New policy financial instruments are being introduced, with a scale of 500 billion yuan expected, aimed at enhancing infrastructure investment [1][5]. - Various local governments are actively preparing for these instruments, holding meetings to discuss their implementation and project readiness [1][2]. - The operational framework is likely to involve policy banks such as the China Development Bank, Agricultural Development Bank, and Export-Import Bank [1][2]. Group 2: Investment Areas - The investment focus of the new policy financial instruments includes traditional infrastructure as well as emerging sectors like digital economy and artificial intelligence [2][3]. - Local governments are identifying and preparing projects that align with these investment areas, ensuring they meet the necessary criteria for funding [2][4]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Support - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to provide monetary policy support through mechanisms like the Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL), which has recently seen a rate cut from 2.25% to 2% [2][3]. - This support aims to address capital shortages in key projects and is seen as a crucial tool for stabilizing investment [2][3]. Group 4: Government Bond Issuance - The issuance of government bonds, including ultra-long-term special bonds and local government special bonds, is set to accelerate, with a total of 8 billion yuan in construction projects already allocated [3][4]. - The quota for ultra-long-term special bonds has increased by 300 billion yuan compared to last year, reflecting a more proactive fiscal policy [3][4]. Group 5: Expected Investment Growth - The new policy financial instruments are projected to leverage between 1.5 trillion to 2.5 trillion yuan in infrastructure investment, contributing to a potential increase in overall infrastructure investment growth to 6% for the year [5]. - The combination of special bonds and local government special bonds is expected to further support infrastructure investment, particularly in equipment manufacturing and high-tech sectors [5].