GDP增长
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二季度GDP增长5%以上基本无虞,下半年或有新一轮增量政策出台
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-17 04:24
分析人士指出,"以旧换新"等政策支持与"618"购物节的提前启动形成合力,共同推动了5月社零的快速增长。国家统计局数据显示,5月限额以上 单位家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额分别增长53.0%、33.0%、30.5%、25.6%。 东吴证券分析师芦哲表示,社零超预期,一部分原因在于提前启动的"618 购物节"和"国补"叠加,另一部分原因可能在于"抢国补"。"5-6月诸多地 区传出国补暂停的说法,尽管很多省份进行辟谣,但可能还是有不少消费者在此期间抢时间购买以旧换新产品。"芦哲在研报中写道。 记者 王珍 5月中国经济运行总体平稳,虽然投资继续放缓,但消费零售表现亮眼,工业生产也较有韧性。分析人士预计,二季度GDP同比增速有望继续达到 5%以上。 但他们同时指出,国内需求扩大内生动能尚需增强,叠加下半年外贸环境不确定性仍在,稳增长政策进一步发力的概率相对上升。监管层或在三 季度推出新一轮增量政策,以进一步激发市场活力。 5月份一系列数据中,社零表现尤为亮眼。当月社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4%,比上月加快1.3个百分点,创2024年初以来的最高水平。 国家统计局数据显示,1-5 ...
5月经济数据点评:如果Q2GDP增长超过5%
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-16 23:30
Economic Growth Indicators - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, marking a recovery in growth[2] - Industrial added value growth in May fell to 5.8%, while the service sector's growth rose to 6.2%[6] - Fixed asset investment growth in May dropped to 2.9%, indicating weakened economic support[6] Demand and Production Concerns - Export delivery value growth remained below 1% in May, reflecting weak production related to exports[6] - The production-sales ratio fell to 95.9%, the lowest level for the same period since 2001[6] - High growth in consumption carries risks of overextension, with infrastructure investment growth continuing to decline[6] Price and Inflation Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.3% year-on-year in May, the lowest since August 2023[6] - The average price of second-hand homes in 70 cities fell by 0.5% month-on-month, the weakest since November 2024[6] Future Economic Outlook - Q2 GDP growth is expected to stabilize above 5%, better than market expectations of 4.9%[6] - The interaction between policy measures and economic growth will determine market risk appetite moving forward[6]
以色列统计局:以色列一季度出口增长1.5%,私人消费下降4.7%,投资增长6.1%,政府支出下降0.1%。一季度人均GDP年化增长2.4%,一季度GDP(不包括进口净税)年化增长5.7%。
news flash· 2025-06-16 10:03
Core Insights - Israel's exports increased by 1.5% in the first quarter [1] - Private consumption decreased by 4.7% in the first quarter [1] - Investment grew by 6.1% in the first quarter [1] - Government spending saw a slight decline of 0.1% [1] - Per capita GDP experienced an annualized growth of 2.4% in the first quarter [1] - Annualized GDP growth (excluding net taxes on imports) was reported at 5.7% in the first quarter [1]
渣打银行大中华及北亚区首席经济师丁爽:5月中国消费数据亮点鲜明,同时,海外不确定性背景下,外贸也抗出了一定压力。预计上半年GDP增长将超过5%。
news flash· 2025-06-16 09:32
渣打银行大中华及北亚区首席经济师丁爽:5月中国消费数据亮点鲜明,同时,海外不确定性背景下, 外贸也抗出了一定压力。预计上半年GDP增长将超过5%。 (一财) ...
欧洲央行管委兼德国央行行长Nagel:持续低于预期的情况不太可能发生。数据和预测显示欧洲央行的任务已完成。欧洲央行保持灵活性是明智之举。德国今年GDP“很有可能”小幅增长。关注中东局势对价格稳定的风险。
news flash· 2025-06-16 07:23
欧洲央行管委兼德国央行行长Nagel:持续低于预期的情况不太可能发生。 德国今年GDP"很有可能"小幅增长。 关注中东局势对价格稳定的风险。 数据和预测显示欧洲央行的任务已完成。 欧洲央行保持灵活性是明智之举。 ...