证券研究报告 | 2025年12月06日 宏观经济周报 解锁服务业增长的三把钥匙 中国服务业正面临"需求与收入"的经典循环困境：提振服务业是为了增加 居民就业和收入，而服务需求增长又被认为依赖后者提升，因此形成"鸡生 蛋、蛋生鸡"的悖论。然而，当前存在三条不依赖当期居民收入增长的需求 线索，正率先打破这一循环困境。 一是海外"输入型需求"。国际往来恢复带动中国在运输、旅游、信息、研 发等服务出口增长，这部分由外部购买力驱动的需求，直接创造了国内就业 与产出。 二是国内"时间稀缺"压抑的潜在需求。我国人均 GDP 已超 1.3 万美元，非 常接近高收入国家的门槛，但服务业占比却仍低于中低收入国家的水平，主 因并非支付能力不足，而是居民"无暇消费"。一旦通过制度优化释放闲暇， 文旅、健康等体验式需求将显著释放。 三是产业升级伴生的"创新需求"。发展新质生产力推动政府和企业在研发、 数字服务、专业咨询等无形资本上投入大增，这类生产性服务需求源于政府 和企业的投资与创新活动，同样不依赖于当期居民收入水平。 这"三轮驱动"能率先创造就业，尤其是青年与转岗岗位，进而增强收入预 期与消费信心，逐步激活更广泛服务消费，形成" ...

Core Insights - Brazilian service sector has experienced growth for eight consecutive months, driven by domestic transportation [1] Summary by Categories Growth Metrics - In September, the Brazilian service sector grew by 0.6% month-on-month and 4.1% year-on-year [1] - Cumulative expansion of the service sector reached 3.3% [1] Sector Contributions - The statistics encompass various fields including tourism, catering, beauty, and information technology [1]

Economic Overview - China's GDP for the first three quarters reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.2% at constant prices [1][19][20] Agricultural Sector - The value added in agriculture (planting) increased by 3.6% year-on-year [4][19] - The production situation in agriculture is reported to be favorable, with a notable increase in summer grain and early rice production by 190,000 tons compared to the previous year [19] Service Sector - The value added in the service industry grew by 5.4% year-on-year, indicating stable growth [7][19] Retail and Consumption - The total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 3,367.81 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [8][20] Trade and Investment - The total value of goods imports and exports reached 3,658.77 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [11][20] - Manufacturing investment also showed a steady increase, contributing to the overall economic growth [20] Employment and Income - The urban surveyed unemployment rate averaged 5.2%, indicating overall stability in the employment situation [12][20] - The per capita disposable income of residents was 32,509 yuan, with a nominal year-on-year growth of 5.1% and a real growth of 5.2% after adjusting for price factors [18][20]

Economic Overview - Chengdu's GDP for the first half of the year reached 1210.82 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8% at constant prices [1] - The primary industry added value was 18.67 billion yuan, growing by 2.7%; the secondary industry added value was 326.74 billion yuan, growing by 5.3%; and the tertiary industry added value was 865.42 billion yuan, growing by 6.0% [1] Agricultural Performance - The production of garden fruits, tea, vegetables, and edible fungi increased by 6.3%, 5.3%, 3.0%, respectively [1] - The number of pigs slaughtered reached 1.993 million, with pork production at 158,000 tons [1] Industrial Growth - The added value of Chengdu's industrial economy grew by 7.8% year-on-year [1] - State-owned enterprises saw a 4.9% increase in added value, while private enterprises experienced a 10.4% growth [1] - Among 37 major industries, 25 reported positive growth, with notable increases in non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling (41.7%), automobile manufacturing (23.6%), and computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing (17.3%) [1] - High-tech manufacturing industries showed a 12.1% increase in added value [1] - Production of new energy vehicles, smartwatches, and lithium-ion batteries surged by 352.2%, 119.2%, and 45.8%, respectively [1] Service Sector Performance - The added value of the service industry grew by 6.0% year-on-year [2] - The rental and business services sector and information transmission, software, and IT services both increased by 10.7% [2] - The transportation, warehousing, and postal services sector grew by 7.4% [2] Consumer Market Trends - Chengdu's consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.3% year-on-year [2] - Fixed asset investment increased by 6.0%, with the primary industry investment growing by 15.3% and secondary industry investment by 40.7% [2] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 562.23 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1% [2] - Notable growth in retail categories included communication equipment (64.5%), household appliances (34.5%), and cultural office supplies (20.4%) [2] - New energy vehicles saw a retail growth of 21.0% [2]

Core Viewpoint - In May, the national service industry production index experienced a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] Industry Breakdown - The information transmission, software, and information technology services sector saw a year-on-year production index increase of 11.2%, which is 5.0 percentage points higher than the overall service industry production index [1] - The leasing and business services sector reported a year-on-year growth of 8.9%, exceeding the overall service industry production index by 2.7 percentage points [1] - The wholesale and retail sector experienced a year-on-year production index growth of 8.4%, surpassing the overall service industry production index by 2.2 percentage points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The service industry in China is experiencing accelerated growth, with a notable increase in the modern service sector, as indicated by the production index and various sub-sector performances [1] Industry Performance - In May, the national service production index grew by 6.2% year-on-year, an acceleration of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The information transmission, software, and IT services sector saw a production index increase of 11.2%, while leasing and business services, and wholesale and retail sectors grew by 8.9% and 8.4% respectively, outperforming the overall service production index by 5.0, 2.7, and 2.2 percentage points [1] - From January to May, the national service production index recorded a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [1] Revenue and Business Activity - For the first four months, revenue from large-scale service enterprises increased by 7.2% year-on-year [1] - The service business activity index for May was at 50.2%, rising by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, while the business activity expectation index stood at 56.5%, also up by 0.1 percentage points [1] - Specific sectors such as railway transport, air transport, postal services, telecommunications, and internet software and IT services reported business activity indices above 55.0%, indicating a high level of economic activity [1]