Millicom International Cellular (NasdaqGS:TIGO) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 26, 2026 08:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsBart Vanhaeren - CFOEduardo Nieto Leal - VP of Equity ResearchLeonardo Ormos - Director of Equity ResearchLivia Manzatto - Executive Director of Equity ResearchMarcelo Benitez - CEOConference Call ParticipantsAndreas Johnson - VP and Senior AnalystPhani Kanumuri - AnalystOperatorHello, everyone, and welcome to our 4th quarter 2025 results call. This event is being recorded. Our speakers to ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's service trade is expected to continue its steady and positive development, with total import and export volume reaching 80,823.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, reflecting the resilience and potential of China's service industry and foreign trade structure amidst global economic uncertainties [1] Group 1: Service Trade Performance - The export growth rate of service trade in 2025 is significantly higher than that of imports, contributing to the narrowing of the trade deficit [3] - Travel services are particularly noteworthy, with import and export volume reaching 22,067 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, driven by the recovery of inbound and outbound tourism [3] - The growth of travel services not only boosts the scale of service trade but also positively supports domestic consumption and employment [3] Group 2: Demand Side Dynamics - The upgrading of resident consumption structure is a key internal driver for the continuous expansion of service trade, as rising income levels and changing consumption concepts increase demand for high-quality and diverse services [4] - The significant narrowing of the service trade deficit in 2025 is a highlight, attributed to the enhanced international competitiveness of domestic service enterprises and the continuous optimization of export structure [4] - The narrowing of the deficit results from a combination of export expansion, import structure adjustment, and improvements in service industry efficiency [4] Group 3: External Environment - The global service trade is undergoing a new round of structural adjustments, with trends towards digitalization, online services, and platformization providing new opportunities for Chinese service enterprises [5] - Ongoing regional economic cooperation is creating favorable conditions for expanding service trade market space [5] - Progress in aligning service trade rules and standards will further reduce the institutional costs for enterprises going global [5] Group 4: Policy Support and Future Outlook - The steady growth of service trade is supported by a series of policy measures aimed at expanding service industry openness and promoting digital trade innovation [6] - Service trade is becoming an important support for stabilizing foreign trade and growth, with a focus on enhancing the professional and international capabilities of service supply rather than merely pursuing scale expansion [6] - Looking ahead, there is significant growth potential in service trade, particularly in travel services and emerging fields such as digital and professional services [6] - Overall, the positive progress in scale growth, structural optimization, and narrowing of the deficit in 2025 will provide important support for foreign trade stability and inject new momentum into high-quality economic development [6]

Group 1: Geopolitical Dynamics - The U.S. is increasingly using geopolitical tools to reshape international order and asset pricing, with a focus on Greenland as a strategic military and resource hub[1] - The U.S. has three main objectives regarding Greenland: national security, resource acquisition, and leveraging political cycles for strategic advantage[1] - The EU's ability to counter U.S. actions is limited due to its trade dependency, with approximately 34% of its trade surplus with the U.S. concentrated in pharmaceuticals[1] Group 2: Asset Pricing and Market Trends - The restructuring of global asset pricing is underway, with a shift towards "hard currency" and scarce resources as the new valuation anchors[2] - Investment trends indicate a migration towards precious metals and strategic resources, with a systematic increase in the asset attributes of non-renewable resources[2] - The Chinese equity market may experience a relative appreciation as global capital flows are restructured and the U.S. dollar's credit weakens[2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 3.80% year-on-year[4] - Retail sales have shown a modest increase of 0.90% year-on-year[4] - Exports have risen by 6.60% year-on-year, while M2 money supply growth stands at 8.50%[4]

Group 1: Transatlantic Trade and Relations - The daily trade of goods and services between the US and the EU exceeds $5.4 billion, supported by extensive cross-border investments that sustain millions of jobs [1][7] - EU leaders are viewing the vast flows of goods, services, and investments as potential leverage against the US, especially in light of recent tensions [1][7] - The current crisis in transatlantic relations is considered one of the most severe, with implications for future interactions under the Trump administration [1][7] Group 2: Financial Leverage and US Debt - European investors hold approximately $2 trillion in US Treasury bonds, which positions them with significant financial leverage over the US economy [2][8] - Concerns are raised about the sustainability of US debt, with potential consequences if European investors cease purchasing US bonds, leading to increased capital costs for the US government [2][9] - Some European entities, like Denmark's AkademikerPension, are beginning to question US creditworthiness, indicating a shift in sentiment towards US debt [3][9] Group 3: Service Trade Dynamics - The EU purchased around $300 billion in services from the US last year, while exporting about $200 billion, creating a service trade surplus that could be leveraged against the US [4][10] - There are warnings that restricting US services could harm European industrial competitiveness, particularly in technology sectors where US offerings are hard to replace [5][11] - Some European countries have implemented digital service taxes, which have drawn criticism from the US government, highlighting tensions over technology policies [5][11] Group 4: Implementation Challenges - The effectiveness of European leverage is questioned, particularly regarding their ability to implement measures against the US [6][12] - The EU's decision-making process is often seen as slow and convoluted, which may hinder timely responses to US actions [6][12] - Recent delays in approving trade agreements with South American countries illustrate the challenges faced by the EU in diversifying its trade relationships [6][12]

Core Insights - The Hanoi Digital Technology Complex Park project marks a significant milestone in the development of digital technology infrastructure in Hanoi, aiming to strengthen the city's position as the political and administrative center of Vietnam while leading national technological innovation [1][2] Group 1: Project Overview - The project covers an area of 196.8 hectares with a total investment of over $2 billion, expected to meet the working needs of approximately 60,000 experts and engineers in the digital technology and innovation fields upon completion [1] - The project aims to build a digital technology ecosystem in Vietnam, focusing on strategic technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, the Internet of Things, and blockchain, along with key products and services in software, digital services, and digital platforms [1] Group 2: Design and Sustainability - The technology park is designed and constructed according to green building standards, targeting sustainable development goals and creating an integrated environment for work, life, and innovation [2] - The core area of the park will be a centralized digital technology and innovation hub, covering approximately 168.9 hectares, while the remaining area will be designed as an open park with internal transportation infrastructure, green spaces, and water features [2] Group 3: Timeline and Goals - The implementation period for the project is set from 2026 to 2031, with the goal of completing and operationalizing the first functional area by 2027 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing dispute between the US and Europe over Greenland is impacting the market, prompting Wall Street to prepare for stock sell-offs before understanding the reasons behind them [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urges global calm amid rising tensions, but rational voices are not prevailing [1][5]. - Citigroup downgraded European stock ratings due to potential corporate profit impacts, marking the first downgrade in a year, despite European stocks previously outperforming US stocks by 2025 [1][5]. - Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson notes that the direct cost impact of President Trump's new tariff threats on major US indices is limited, but sectors with lower weight in indices, such as automotive, consumer staples, materials, and healthcare, face the greatest risks [1][5]. Group 2: Potential Risks - Wilson warns that the most significant risk from the Greenland crisis is whether the EU will activate its "anti-coercion tool" targeting the service sector, which could pose greater challenges for major US tech stocks [1][5]. - The EU's "anti-coercion tool," introduced in 2021, serves as a deterrent and encompasses measures beyond tariffs, including investment restrictions and taxes on US assets and services [2][6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Asset Preferences - Concerns about US tech companies being primary targets of EU countermeasures are reflected in the Nasdaq 100 futures, which are declining ahead of upcoming earnings reports from major US tech firms [2][6]. - TS Lombard's Christopher Granville suggests that significant market declines will only occur if US-EU tensions escalate beyond tariff increases to more aggressive confrontations, such as using LNG exports as leverage or restricting US tech companies' market access [2][6]. - Wilson expresses a favorable outlook on small-cap stocks, noting that their fundamentals are improving, which is driving their relative outperformance despite a cooling market expectation for Fed rate cuts [2][6][7]. Group 4: Recommended Small-Cap Sectors - Morgan Stanley identifies preferred small-cap sectors, including consumer discretionary, regional/mid-sized banks, short-cycle industrials, and biotechnology [3][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development injects stability and momentum into the global economy amid increasing geopolitical conflicts and economic fragmentation [1] - The shift towards high-quality development is strategically significant for China, aiming for more sustainable and resilient growth, with a strong focus on innovation, productivity, and long-term stability [1] - China has become a major contributor to global renewable energy capacity, attracting $818 billion in clean energy investments in 2024, a 20% increase from the previous year [1] Group 2 - China is recognized for its investments in advanced manufacturing and green technologies, with nearly 40% of the world's "lighthouse factories" identified by the World Economic Forum located in China, showcasing its leadership in applying Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies [2] - As the world's largest manufacturing nation, China's development has global implications, particularly in addressing climate change and supply chain instability through its green technology and advanced manufacturing advantages [2] - The importance of utilizing multilateral mechanisms to promote healthy competition and mutually beneficial cooperation is emphasized, especially in the context of rising trade protectionism [2] Group 3 - The World Economic Forum's 2026 annual meeting will be held in Davos, Switzerland, focusing on the theme of "the spirit of dialogue," highlighting that dialogue is essential for building trust, which is the foundation for global economic growth and stability [3]

Core Insights - The global trade environment is experiencing significant volatility due to unilateral measures by the U.S., particularly the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs," which have intensified trade tensions and uncertainty in international trade policies [1][2] Group 1: Trade Policy and Uncertainty - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has identified policy uncertainty as a core indicator of the deteriorating global trade environment, with U.S. tariff increases being a key source of this uncertainty [2] - U.S. tariff measures have led to spillover effects, prompting other countries to raise tariffs and adjust their trade policies, resulting in increased global trade policy volatility [2] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade actions has made it difficult for countries to predict future developments, distorting trade volume data and contributing to a fragmented global supply chain [2][3] Group 2: Trade Growth and Temporary Factors - The WTO revised its global trade growth forecast for 2025, initially predicting a decline but later adjusting it to a growth of 0.9% due to "preemptive imports" by U.S. companies ahead of tariff implementations [4] - Despite the temporary boost in trade figures, the WTO warns that this "preemptive import" effect will not last, and trade demand is expected to decline as tariffs take effect and inventories are depleted [4] - Other temporary factors, such as rising prices of commodities and short-term export incentives, have also contributed to inflated trade figures, masking underlying weaknesses in actual demand [4] Group 3: Emerging Industries and Trade Dynamics - While emerging industries like artificial intelligence and digital services have shown some potential to drive trade, they are insufficient to reverse the downward trend in traditional trade [5] - The concentration of AI-related industries in a few economies limits the broader benefits for developing countries, and the reliance on physical exports remains strong in many economies [5] - The potential for AI to enhance global trade significantly by 2040 is contingent on reducing policy and technological disparities, which are currently exacerbated by ongoing trade uncertainties [5] Group 4: Future Trade Outlook - Global trade is expected to face ongoing downward pressure due to structural, institutional, and cyclical factors, leading to slower growth and increased volatility [6] - Rising trade barriers and protectionist measures are identified as core risks to the trade outlook, potentially increasing costs and disrupting global supply chains [6] - Geopolitical tensions and supply chain restructuring may temporarily boost alternative trade, but long-term effects are likely to reduce overall cross-border trade intensity [6]

Core Viewpoint - The EU's enforcement of the Digital Services Act has escalated tensions between the US and EU, with the US imposing travel restrictions on European officials in response to a significant fine levied against Musk's platform X [1][3][5]. Group 1: Regulatory Context - The EU's Digital Services Act, enacted in 2022, mandates large internet platforms to prevent the spread of illegal content and hate speech, impacting major US tech companies like Apple, Google, and X [3][5]. - The first fine under this act was imposed on X, amounting to €120 million, which has drawn strong discontent from the US [3][5]. Group 2: Political Implications - The US sanctions against European officials are seen as a challenge to the EU's digital governance authority, indicating a shift from policy disagreements to a more profound political conflict [3][6]. - The ongoing digital regulatory dispute is expected to evolve into a direct conflict over rule-making authority and governance boundaries by 2026 [3][10]. Group 3: Internal Pressures - Both the US and EU face internal pressures to adopt more aggressive stances in their digital regulatory approaches, with US lawmakers advocating for harsher measures against EU officials [6][7]. - The EU is experiencing internal divisions regarding its response to US sanctions, with some leaders calling for a stronger stance against US tech companies [8][9]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The digital governance conflict reflects deeper ideological divides between the US and EU, with the US viewing the Digital Services Act as a tool for censorship, while the EU sees it as essential for curbing hate speech [10][11]. - The situation is indicative of a broader cultural and political clash between the Trump administration and Europe, suggesting that the transatlantic relationship has fundamentally changed [11].

Group 1 - The European Union imposed anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in October last year, with France playing a significant role in protecting its domestic industry while seeking support from other member states [1] - In response, China initiated anti-dumping investigations on EU pork and brandy, leading to a decline in exports for France, a major exporter [1] - On December 22, China announced temporary anti-subsidy measures on EU dairy products, effective the next day, prompting a strong reaction from France, which sought an emergency meeting with the EU [1][3] Group 2 - China's retaliatory measures were not arbitrary; they followed failed negotiations with the EU regarding electric vehicle tariffs, where China proposed a minimum export price to allow for adjustments [3] - France's government criticized China's actions as non-compliant and urged the EU Commission to initiate a response process, highlighting the significant impact on its dairy exports [3] - President Macron emphasized the need to maintain EU interests and warned that continued trade imbalance could lead to increased tariffs on Chinese goods [3] Group 3 - Concurrently, the U.S. imposed visa bans on five Europeans, including a key figure in the EU's digital services law, which was perceived as a direct attack on EU digital sovereignty [5] - The U.S. actions have strained transatlantic relations, with European leaders, including Macron, condemning the bans as coercive and a threat to European digital autonomy [5] - The EU's internal response to the U.S. actions reflects a commitment to uphold its digital regulations despite external pressures [5][6] Group 4 - France's trade with China has already incurred tangible costs, with adjustments in pork exports and accumulating dairy product inventories [6] - The EU's internal divisions regarding a unified stance on China have become more pronounced, especially in light of China's retaliatory measures [6] - The simultaneous U.S. actions in the digital domain complicate the EU's position, as France must navigate trade pressures from China while supporting EU digital regulations [6]