比特币期权市场显示，交易员正押注这项全球最大加密货币将在短期内继续维持区间震荡，此前的持续 回调已让加密资产整体市值蒸发超过1万亿美元。周五，比特币价格一度下挫超4%至88,069美元。目 前，比特币仍占据整个加密市场近六成的总市值。 比特币今年的表现也因此落后于标普500指数，这是十多年来首次出现这样的情况。加密货币与其他风 险资产的走势出现明显背离，即便与过去的"加密寒冬"时期相比也十分罕见。这一走势也令市场此前对 特朗普重返白宫后有利监管环境带来机构资金加速流入的预期落空。 期权数据显示，12月下旬到期的近月合约持仓量显著高于长期合约，反映出交易员积极卖出短期期权以 赚取权利金，押注近期波动率将维持低位。Wintermute策略师Jasper De Maere表示，比特币期权的交易 结构明确体现出短期区间震荡的预期，波动率不断被抛售，而双端(看涨/看跌)需求疲弱。同时，投资者 仍在增加长期期权仓位，意味着市场认为短期稳定、但中长期可能出现更大的价格波动。 今年早些时候，比特币曾创下12.6万美元的纪录高位，但随后两个月的暴跌(受强制平仓潮、散户热度 衰退等因素)驱动令整个加密市场进入全面回调。与此同时， ...

从日线级别来看，昨日BTC收出一根小幅下跌的阴线，与此前连续阳线形成经典的"连阳单阴"K线组合 形态。这一信号表明，尽管市场此前经历了一轮反弹（如从89000附近回升至94000上方），但多头动能 已明显减弱——连续上涨后积累的获利盘在高位开始松动，空头趁机发力压制价格。当前BTC价格仍处 于90000-95000的大区间内运行，整体趋势尚未突破震荡修正格局，方向性选择仍需等待更明确的信 号。 12月5日，加密货币市场延续近期震荡特征，比特币（BTC）与以太坊（ETH）均未走出明确方向。大 周期级别显示市场处于区间修正阶段，多空力量在关键支撑与阻力位反复拉锯；短周期技术指标则释放 短期回调信号，需警惕价格向下破位风险。本文将从技术面深度解析两大主流币种的走势逻辑，并给出 具体的合约交易策略，帮助投资者在震荡市中把握结构性机会。 一、比特币（BTC）：日线"连阳单阴"显疲态，反弹动能衰减，震荡修正为主 值得关注的是，日线附图指标MACD呈现金叉状态（快线向上穿越慢线，且柱状图由绿转红），这意味 着市场内在的多头动能尚未完全消散。即使短期价格回调，下方空间也可能受到限制（如90000整数关 口附近的强支撑）。但反 ...

比特币小幅上涨，因市场对美联储将在周三会议上再次降息的预期支撑了风险偏好。在摩尔线程上海上 市首日飙升近500%后，市场对高估值AI相关股票的担忧减轻，这也提振了该加密货币。比特币本周走 势动荡，周一曾遭受3月份以来的最大跌幅，之后回升至90,000美元上方。BCA Research策略师Artem Sakhbiev在一份报告中说："尽管近期出现波动，但比特币的基本面叙事基本未变，机构采用范围继续 扩大。"伦敦证券交易所集团的数据显示，比特币上涨0.1%，至92,258美元。该加密货币周四曾触及 94,082美元的两周高点，周一则触及83,873美元的一周低点。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - Bank of America will allow wealth advisors to recommend cryptocurrency investments starting January 5, 2024, marking a significant milestone for the digital asset industry [1] - Advisors from Bank of America Private Bank, Merrill, and Merrill Edge will be able to suggest various cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs) without any asset minimums [1] - The move shifts the role of advisors from merely executing cryptocurrency transactions to providing asset allocation advice [1] Group 2 - The cryptocurrency market faced a significant downturn in November, with Bitcoin's price dropping over $18,000 within a month, leading to record levels of capital withdrawal [2] - Merrill's report indicates a correlation between adoption levels and long-term value, but this relationship is uncertain, especially during speculative bubbles when asset prices may exceed their intrinsic value [2]

Core Inflation and Fed Policy - The core PCE likely rose 2.9% year-on-year in September, moving away from the Fed's target of a 2% annual rate, marking 55 consecutive months above the target [2] - Persistent inflation is expected to strengthen the position of Fed hawks who advocate for slower rate cuts [2] Market Volatility and Expectations - Volatility indices, such as the bitcoin implied volatility index (BVIV), remain stable around 36%, indicating a 24-hour expected price swing of 1.88%, suggesting low volatility expectations [3] - Anticipated Fed rate cuts next week are likely influencing the low volatility, with a 25 basis point cut on December 10 priced in as a certainty [3] Impact on Cryptocurrency - A softer-than-expected PCE report could lead to a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield below 4%, potentially allowing Bitcoin (BTC) to break out of its recent trading range of $92,000-$94,000 [4] - Analysts suggest that a contained PCE and softer labor data would support a rebound in cryptocurrencies, while any upside surprise may keep markets range-bound until the Fed's direction is clarified [4] Alternative Cryptocurrencies Volatility - Analysts at ING caution that any decline in benchmark yields may be temporary, with similar impacts expected on alternative cryptocurrencies [5] - Ether's one-day implied volatility index stands at 57.23%, indicating a 24-hour price swing of 3%, while SOL and XRP show volatility indices suggesting price moves of 3.86% and 4.3%, respectively [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that JPMorgan predicts Bitcoin may rise by 84% in the next 6 to 12 months, suggesting its trading pattern will resemble that of gold [1] - JPMorgan's model indicates that the theoretical price of Bitcoin is close to $170,000, showing significant upside potential [1] - As of the report, Bitcoin's trading price is $92,374.5, down approximately 36% from its peak of over $126,000 earlier this year [1] Group 2 - Concerns are rising regarding Strategy's potential sale of Bitcoin, as the company is known for its early bets on Bitcoin [1] - Strategy's CEO Phong Le indicated that if the market net asset value (mNAV) falls below 1, the company may sell its Bitcoin holdings [2] - The current mNAV is around 1.1, and the company has raised $1.4 billion in cash reserves, which may reduce the likelihood of forced Bitcoin sales [3] Group 3 - MSCI will decide in January whether to exclude companies with 50% or more of their assets in digital assets from its indices, raising concerns about Strategy's inclusion [4] - If MSCI implements this rule, it could lead to approximately $2.8 billion in outflows from Strategy's stock [4] - Conversely, a positive decision from MSCI could lead to a strong rebound for both Strategy and Bitcoin, potentially returning to levels seen before October 10 [4]

（来源：通证经济） 贝莱德CEO：主权基金正在低价买入比特币 贝莱德 CEO Larry Fink 透露，一些未具名的主权基金正在买入比特币，且在比特币价格从 12.6 万美元 的峰值下跌时，他们买入了更多。Larry Fink 表示，这些基金正在渐进式买入，并在比特币价格跌至 8 万美元区间时增持，旨在建立长期头寸。 他在 DealBook 活动上与 Coinbase 首席执行官 Brian Armstrong 一起发言时表示，如果美国不加速在数字化和代币化方面的投入，将面临落后于其他国家的 风险。此外，Larry Fink 预测，加密货币驱动的代币化将在未来几年迎来巨大增长。（福布斯） 国际货币基金组织警告：稳定币普及或削弱央行控制权 贝莱德CEO：主权基金正在低价买入比特币 贝莱德 CEO Larry Fink 透露，一些未具名的主权基金正在买入比特币，且在比特币价格从 12.6 万美元 的峰值下跌时，他们买入了更多。Larry Fink 表示，这些基金正在渐进式买入，并在比特币价格跌至 8 万美元区间时增持，旨在建立长期头寸。 他在 DealBook 活动上与 Coinbase 首席执行官 Brian ...

不过，摩根大通多年来一直认为，比特币的交易方式可能会更接近黄金。这在今年4月表现得最为突 出，当时对关税的担忧导致美股出现历史性抛售，并导致资金流入比特币和其他加密货币。 摩根大通的策略师们还表示，他们正在关注两个可能在短期内影响比特币价格的因素： 1、Strategy坚守其比特币持仓 来源：环球市场播报 比特币价格已从历史高点暴跌了约30%，突显出这种加密货币的波动性。但摩根大通认为，在未来12个 月的某个时候，比特币的价格仍有可能飙升至17万美元。 摩根大通表示，预计比特币在未来6至12个月内可能会上涨84%，理由是其模型预测比特币的交易价格 将与黄金价格相似。 由Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou领导的一个策略师团队周三在一份客户报告中写道："经波动性调整后的比特 币与黄金指标的比较继续表明，比特币的理论价格接近17万美元，这表明比特币在未来6-12个月内将有 显著上涨空间。" 摩根大通发表这一预测之际，比特币已经历了几个月的艰难时期。由于普遍的避险情绪，人们对2026年 利率走势的担忧，以及对迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）创立的比特币财务公司Strategy的担忧，比特币 陷 ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration announced a new policy to shorten the validity of work permits for immigrants applying for asylum or other humanitarian programs from five years to 18 months, allowing for more frequent reviews of their status [4] - The U.S. government plans to increase its stake in critical mineral companies, with over $1 billion invested in the past year, which has often boosted the stock prices of related companies [6] - Goldman Sachs has paused the issuance of a $1.3 billion mortgage bond for CyrusOne, a data center operator, following a significant outage at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange due to a cooling system failure [9] - Bank of America will allow wealth management advisors to recommend cryptocurrency investments starting January 5, marking a significant milestone in the digital asset space [11] - The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) director is under investigation for alleged abuse of power related to mortgage fraud accusations against political opponents, following a request from Senate Democrats [13] - Meta's stock price rose approximately 4% after reports indicated that the company plans to significantly cut its metaverse business budget by up to 30% [15]

记者丨江佩佩 吴斌 见习记者张嘉钰 编辑丨张楠 12月4日，美股小幅高开，截至北京时间23点，美股三大指数转跌，道琼斯指数跌0.11%，标普500指数 跌0.08%，纳斯达克综合指数跌0.21%。 大型科技股多数上涨，脸书涨超5%，英伟达涨逾1%。Meta上涨5.7%，创7月31日以来最大盘中涨幅， 消息面上，据智通财经报道，Meta计划将元宇宙项目支出削减至多30%。Snowflake跌超8%，第四财季 营业利润率指引逊预期。 自动化软件公司Uipath涨7.5%，Q3业绩全面超预期，实现经营利润1300万美元。Dollar General涨 5.6%，上调全年业绩指引。 中国资产逆势上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.42%，无忧英语涨超13%，正业生物涨超8%、阿特斯太 阳能涨超6%，蔚来、小鹏汽车涨超3%，哔哩哔哩涨超2%，理想汽车、百度涨近1%。 世界黄金协会(WGC)周四发布的报告预计，2026年黄金价格有望再上涨15%至30%。WGC指出，美债收 益率下行、地缘政治风险高企以及显著增强的避险需求叠加，将为黄金提供极为强劲的顺风。 加密货币方面，截至22:57，比特币短线加速下跌，跌穿9.2万美元，目 ...