房地产行业 2025 年回顾与 2026 年展望： 行业研究 房地产行业 销售持续筑底，止跌回稳转向巩固稳定态势 工商部 | 马天姿 葛若寒 2026 年 1 月 28 日 摘要 2025 年，供给端在"严控增量"政策下深度收缩，房地产开发投资加速探底，新房供应 持续减少；需求端销售降幅收窄，呈止跌回稳态势，结构方面进一步向高能级城市及住宅需 求集中；百城新建住宅价格仍结构性微涨，但二手房市场"以价换量"行情未变；全年宏观 政策定调统筹风险化解与模式转型，从"止跌回稳"到"巩固稳定态势"；融资端修复效果有 限，信用利差同比有所下降，增信方式对降低信用利差的作用有限；行业内违约问题及债务 压力仍存在。从 2025 年全年房地产市场发展情况来看，我国房地产行业仍处于深度调整向弱 复苏过渡的筑底周期，政策托底不断巩固稳定态势，预计 2026 年市场有望逐步探明底部或将 进入筑底横盘阶段，"好房子"与城市更新的"优供给"举措将成为重要抓手，但长期仍需依 赖房地产发展新模式的建立与完善。 一、 行业供给能力分析 1.1 行业规模分析 2025 年，房地产开发投资加速探底，新开工规模深度收缩。2025 年，在全年行业严控 ...

Group 1 - The core project of the company, the Baishizhou Urban Renewal Project, has completed its main construction and received necessary government approvals, marking a significant milestone for future sales and operations [1] - The completion of the Baishizhou project is expected to enhance the company's property portfolio in the Greater Bay Area and South China market, positively impacting future business development and financial performance [1] - The project’s completion will also facilitate ongoing discussions regarding the company's overall debt restructuring with stakeholders, increasing the likelihood of successful negotiations [1] Group 2 - The company is actively addressing liquidity challenges by selling investment properties, including the NEO Building in Hong Kong, as part of its financial relief strategy [2] - The NEO Building has been mortgaged under a loan agreement, and the company is in discussions with lenders to establish a suitable framework for managing and potentially liquidating the property [2] - The appointment of professional managers for the property is seen as a crucial step in reducing debt and improving the capital structure, which is expected to expedite the offshore debt restructuring process [2][3] Group 3 - The board believes that the appointment of professional managers will not adversely affect the company’s financial position and will optimize property operations while maximizing asset value [3] - This appointment is anticipated to enhance communication with creditors and stakeholders regarding the ongoing offshore restructuring efforts [3]

Group 1 - The company has completed the main construction of the key urban renewal project in Shenzhen, specifically the first phase of the Baishizhou Urban Renewal Project, and has obtained necessary government approvals [1] - The completion of the project marks an important milestone, laying a solid foundation for subsequent steps including sales, delivery, and operations [1] - The company believes that the launch of the Baishizhou Urban Renewal Project will enhance its property portfolio in the Greater Bay Area and South China market, positively impacting future business development and financial performance [1] Group 2 - The company is actively addressing liquidity challenges, including the sale of investment properties, with a focus on the NEO building in Hong Kong [2] - The property has been mortgaged under a loan agreement, and the company is in discussions with lenders to establish a suitable framework for managing and potentially liquidating the property [2] - The appointment of professional managers for the property is seen as a crucial step in reducing debt and improving the capital structure, which is expected to expedite the overseas debt restructuring process [2][3] Group 3 - The board believes that the appointment of professional managers will not adversely affect the company’s financial position and will help optimize property operations and maximize asset value [3] - The board emphasizes that this appointment is not expected to interfere with ongoing communications regarding overseas restructuring with creditors and other stakeholders [3]

Core Viewpoint - The completion of the major construction works for the "Green Scene Baishizhou Jingting" project marks a significant milestone for the company, paving the way for subsequent sales, delivery, and operations of the Baishizhou urban renewal project [1][2]. Group 1 - The "Green Scene Baishizhou Jingting" project has received all necessary government approvals, including the completion acceptance certificate and planning acceptance certificate, confirming compliance with approved plans and applicable regulations [1]. - The company has officially initiated the delivery process for residential units in the "Green Scene Baishizhou Jingting" project [2]. - The board believes that the launch of the Baishizhou urban renewal project will enhance the company's property portfolio in the Greater Bay Area and South China market, positively impacting future business development and financial performance [2]. Group 2 - The completion of the project is expected to facilitate ongoing discussions with stakeholders regarding the company's overall debt restructuring, significantly increasing the chances of successful negotiation and implementation of the restructuring plan [2].

近年来，湖北襄阳将老旧小区加装电梯作为重要民生实事扎实推进，助力城市更新。图为工人在一小区 为旧楼加装电梯。 "《通知》完善规划实施手段，在传统依据'规划'管控的基础上，增加了按照'规则'管理的方式，加大对 新产业新业态的政策支持力度，从而提高灵活适应市场需求的弹性。"苗泽说。 提供更丰富的政策激励工具箱 "相比增量空间扩张的发展模式，城市存量空间的更新提质，面临错综复杂的情况和多元诉求的挑 战。"苗泽介绍，《通知》在总结各地城市更新实践探索经验的基础上，回应地方期盼，进一步明晰了 支持城市更新行动的若干措施，为城市更新提供了更加丰富的政策激励工具箱。 谢 勇摄（人民视觉） 近日，自然资源部联合住房城乡建设部对外发布《关于进一步支持城市更新行动若干措施的通知》（以 下简称《通知》），从增强详细规划适应性、优化过渡期支持政策、推进存量土地和空间的临时利用等 方面提出了系列举措。多方分析认为，《通知》有助于破解城市更新中的政策堵点，进一步强化规划与 土地政策融合。 灵活适应市场需求 自然资源部国土空间规划局局长谢海霞介绍，《通知》明确在国土空间规划"一张图"基础上，开展城市 更新区域详细规划的评估优化工作路径，既 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Guizhou Duzhiweisi Exhibition Hall has been completed, showcasing the historical and cultural significance of Guizhou's military governance during the Ming Dynasty, while also contributing to the urban renewal of Guiyang city [4][6]. Group 1: Exhibition Overview - The exhibition hall, covering 280 square meters, is divided into seven sections that explore the historical context of Guizhou's military system, the establishment of the province, and the layout of ancient Guiyang [4][5]. - A three-dimensional model of ancient Guiyang city, based on the "Guizhou Province City Map" from the Ming Dynasty, illustrates the city's strategic position and military significance [5][6]. Group 2: Historical Context - The Guizhou Duzhiweisi was established in 1382 as a military management institution, emphasizing the central government's control over the southwestern frontier and the importance of the region for transportation routes [6][7]. - Historical data indicates that the military personnel in Guizhou during the Ming Dynasty numbered approximately 137,000, highlighting the region's military significance [6][7]. Group 3: Urban Renewal and Cultural Activation - Guiyang's urban planning emphasizes the "One River, One Road, Two Areas" strategy, with the renovation of the Guancheng River being a key project to enhance the city's historical and cultural landscape [8][9]. - The exhibition hall aims to engage citizens and visitors in cultural activities, fostering a deeper connection to the historical narratives of the region and integrating military culture into everyday life [9].

Group 1 - The meeting between the Mayor of Guiyang, Wang Hong, and the Chairman of Tianpu Group, Yang Guangsheng, focused on deepening cooperation in various sectors [1][2] - Wang Hong emphasized the importance of urban renewal and enhancing city quality in Guiyang and Gui'an, aligning with the directives from President Xi Jinping's visit [2] - Areas of potential collaboration include the construction of quality housing, development of the tourism industry, and establishment of high-end hotels, aiming to create benchmark projects [2] Group 2 - Tianpu Group expressed its commitment to leveraging its strengths to make Guiyang and Gui'an a key investment destination, planning to implement more quality projects [2] - The local government will conduct a "Five Helps" initiative to provide support and service guarantees for enterprises developing in the region [2]

Core Insights - The first land auction in Beijing for 2026 concluded with three residential plots and one commercial plot sold at base prices, totaling 85.62 billion yuan [1] - The auction reflects a rational attitude from real estate companies towards land acquisition, emphasizing project safety and long-term operational capabilities [3][4] Group 1: Land Auction Details - Three residential plots in Shijingshan, Tongzhou, and Shunyi were sold for a total of 57.62 billion yuan, while a commercial plot fetched 28 billion yuan [1] - The Shijingshan plot was acquired by Shougang Real Estate for 1.39 billion yuan, with a floor price of approximately 38,000 yuan per square meter [1] - The Tongzhou plot was won by a consortium led by Beijing Construction Group for 1.562 billion yuan, with a floor price of about 17,900 yuan per square meter [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Analysis - All plots were sold at base prices, indicating a return to rational operations in the land market, continuing the trend of "reduced volume and stable prices" since 2025 [3] - The supply of residential land in Beijing for 2026 is projected to be between 200 to 240 hectares, a decrease from 240 to 300 hectares in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline [3] - The concentration of residential land transactions within the Fifth Ring Road reached 33%, the highest in five years, while transactions outside the Sixth Ring Road dropped to 13%, the lowest in five years [3] Group 3: Implications for Real Estate Companies - The land market is increasingly focused on urban function optimization and housing structure improvement, with core area plots remaining attractive [4] - Real estate companies are prioritizing project safety margins and long-term operational capabilities over aggressive expansion strategies [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the China Railway Seventh Group's Tahe Li Real Estate Asset-Backed Special Plan has been accepted for issuance, with a proposed amount of 936 million yuan [3][4]. - The original rights holder of the project is China Railway Zhongchan Real Estate Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Railway Group Limited, which is a Fortune Global 500 company [4]. - The project aims to create an innovative urban renewal model that integrates community, scenic area, and street area, focusing on historical revitalization and innovative mixed-use development [3]. Group 2 - The planned management of the project is handled by China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd., indicating a reputable management team overseeing the issuance [3]. - The Tahe Li project is positioned as a comprehensive cultural, commercial, and tourism night economy complex, covering an area of 75,000 square meters and featuring six themed IPs [3]. - The company has a history of developing significant projects, including the Zhengzhou Central Business District and various projects in Xi'an and Jiaozuo, showcasing its experience in real estate development [4][5].

证券日报网讯2月3日，科顺股份（300737）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司当前的业绩波动是 行业整体需求周期下行与公司主动进行战略调整的共同体现。公司正坚定推进高质量发展，通过深化零 售渠道布局、拓展海外新兴市场及优化工建业务结构，持续增强经营韧性。同时，公司积极把握城市更 新、绿色建筑等政策机遇，依托技术研发与品牌优势抢占市场份额，行业集中度提升的趋势将为头部企 业带来长期成长空间。管理层始终以股东利益为核心，通过强化风控、降本增效及创新驱动，努力提升 运营质量与持续盈利能力。 ...