进入2026年，最扎心的问题还是那个——房价到底了没？还会不会跌？ 咱们先把人口账算清楚。老龄化越来越深，适龄购房的人越来越少，这是改变不了的现实。全国范围内 的房价继续向下调整，基本是大概率事件。一线城市虽然靠着产业和资源还能吸人，但这种人口回流要 转化成实实在在的买房需求，没个三五年很难见效。短期看，一线可能扛跌，但全国大盘的压力，跑不 掉。 那房价一直跌，成交量能不能稳住？现在市场上确实出现了"以价换量"的苗头。2026年1月，全国重点 13城二手房成交810万平方米，环比涨了16%，同比暴涨33%，比2025年的月均还高了18%。北京、上 海、广州、深圳的二手房都挺热闹，上海更是创了近五年同期新高。 但这里有个坑，千万别踩——成交热的只是二手房，新房完全是另一副面孔。同期全国重点50城的新建 商品住宅成交面积，环比暴跌32%，同比也少了20%。问题就来了：二手房成交再火，对地产链的拉动 能有多大？说白了，二手房顶多带动装修、家电、中介，但新房才能拉动土地、建材、施工这一整条长 链条。只要新房起不来，地产链想企稳，门儿都没有。 地产趴着起不来，那内需消费能不能顶上？难度也不小。 耐用品这块，2025年有 ...

以下文章来源于克而瑞深度咨询丨普睿地产研究 ，作者普睿数智研究中心 克而瑞深度咨询丨普睿地产研究 . 涵盖市场、企业等八大研究方向，专注房地产市场发展、房企运营、产品力及多元化与代建课题探究。常规研究成果按日度、周度、月度定期发布，每年 亦推出上百篇重磅专题，为行业提供专业决策参考。 ☉ 文／克而瑞 构建发展模式新框架 夯实止跌回稳新阶段 在房地产行业从规模扩张转向质效提升的关键转型期，2025年成为搭建发展新模式制度框架的重要一年，市场止跌回稳趋势逐步确立，政策面围绕控增量、去 库存、优供给核心原则形成全方位支撑体系。集中表现在： 第一、中央强化顶层设计引领，"十五五"规划首次将房地产高质量发展纳入民生保障框架，明确构建发展新模式的长期方向； 第二、供需两端协同发力精准施策，供给侧通过专项债优化土地储备、存量用地盘活等规范市场运行，需求侧下调个人住房公积金贷款利率、完善住房租赁条 例等释放居住需求潜力； 回顾2025年政策走向，从一季度制度框架搭建到四季度新模式明确，从中央顶层设计到地方700余条政策落地，公积金优化、保障安居、城市更新、"好房 子"建设等举措多点发力，推动商品房待售面积连续10个月下降，市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of China's real estate industry, emphasizing a shift from expansion to improving existing assets and efficiency, highlighting the need for a new understanding of the market dynamics and expectations [5]. Market Expectations - As of the end of 2025, surveyed institutions have a conservative outlook for the real estate industry in 2026, with macroeconomic expectations being more optimistic than those for the real estate sector [7]. - Following the publication of an article in early 2026, over 40% of surveyed institutions reported an improvement in their expectations for both the macro economy and the real estate industry compared to the end of 2025 [9]. Policy Expectations - The assessment of policies implemented in 2025 aimed at stabilizing the real estate market is neutral, with macro fiscal and monetary policies being viewed as more effective than supply-demand policies [10]. - For 2026, there is a strong expectation for residential policies focused on demand-side measures, including lifting purchase restrictions, increasing mortgage interest tax deductions, and implementing mortgage interest subsidies to lower housing costs [11]. - Expectations for commercial real estate policies center on optimizing land policies, particularly clarifying rules for land renewal and encouraging the conversion of existing land uses to enhance market liquidity [11]. Business Development Directions - Real estate companies in 2026 are expected to focus on building quality housing, urban renewal, and revitalizing existing commercial real estate, reflecting a consensus on returning to the essence of housing and transitioning from new development to existing asset management [15]. - Financial institutions are anticipated to concentrate their investments in asset categories such as data centers, rental housing, and logistics warehousing, indicating a preference for assets with policy support, strong demand, and stable cash flows [16].

Core Insights - China's urban development is undergoing a fundamental shift from scale expansion to qualitative enhancement, with urban renewal becoming a national strategic path and a core direction for enterprises seeking new growth [1][2]. Group 1: Urban Development Transition - The central government has recognized a significant transition in urban development, moving from rapid urbanization to stable development, and from large-scale expansion to optimizing existing assets [2]. - The "14 trillion yuan" funding support for urban renewal during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is expected to be facilitated through budget funds and government bonds [2]. Group 2: Implementation of Urban Renewal - Urban renewal is now viewed as a systematic transformation rather than fragmented projects, emphasizing a shift from investment-driven to demand-driven approaches [2][3]. - Successful case studies, such as the transformation of idle buildings into public service spaces in Shenzhen and community upgrades in Zhejiang, illustrate diverse pathways and methodologies for urban renewal [3]. Group 3: Role of Local Governments and Financial Institutions - Local governments are encouraged to establish strong coordination mechanisms to break down departmental barriers and foster collaboration [4]. - Financial institutions are urged to innovate financial products to provide long-term, low-interest funding support for urban renewal initiatives [4]. Group 4: Market Opportunities and Challenges - The real estate market is expected to still have significant opportunities, with a shift in housing demand from quantity to quality, focusing on asset operation, urban renewal, and rental housing [4]. - Companies are increasingly focusing on niche markets and specialized operations to build new competitive advantages, particularly in the aging population sector, which presents a substantial market potential [6].

Group 1 - The core focus of the Beijing government work report for 2026 is to stabilize the real estate market, promote healthy development of the housing rental market, and increase the supply of housing products tailored for different demographics, particularly targeting young people and urban service personnel [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of a multi-tiered rental housing supply system to meet the actual housing needs of young people and urban service personnel, which is crucial for stabilizing the economic foundation of the city [2][3] - The construction of "good houses" is highlighted as a priority, with a focus on quality upgrades to meet the individualized housing needs of families, thereby driving the real estate market towards stabilization [1][7] Group 2 - The report outlines a commitment to building more "good houses" and improving the quality of housing, with a significant achievement in the previous year being the construction of 67,000 units of guaranteed rental housing and the completion of 100,000 units of various types of guaranteed housing [7] - The government aims to enhance the living experience through improved housing quality, with a focus on safety, comfort, and sustainability, and the establishment of a comprehensive standard for high-quality residential construction [8][9] - Urban renewal is emphasized as a key strategy for transforming the development model of a mega-city, with specific tasks outlined for 2026, including the renovation of old neighborhoods and the installation of elevators in old buildings [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of real estate companies is expected to stabilize as they navigate through the current market challenges, with a focus on asset impairment provisions and strategic investments in long-cycle industries [2][3][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Poly Developments announced a projected revenue of approximately 308.26 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.09%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of about 1.03 billion yuan, reflecting a decline compared to 2024 [2][4]. - The company plans to recognize asset impairment and credit impairment losses totaling approximately 6.9 billion yuan, which is expected to reduce the net profit for 2025 by about 4.2 billion yuan [4]. - Excluding the impact of impairment provisions, Poly Developments' net profit for 2025 is estimated to be around 5.2 billion yuan, with the fourth quarter contributing approximately 3.3 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The real estate sector is experiencing a cautious yet orderly expansion in investment, with companies exploring new revenue streams beyond traditional real estate development, such as entering long-cycle industries and enhancing service offerings [3][6]. - The top 100 real estate companies are projected to have a total land acquisition amount of 964 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, driven by favorable policies and the need for sustainable development [5]. - The industry is expected to enter a new development phase in 2026, as many companies have passed the peak of delivery and debt repayment, indicating a potential for recovery and stabilization in performance [2][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Real estate companies are increasingly focusing on property operations and other sectors, with many adopting strategies to enhance their operational efficiency and capitalize on the growing REITs market [6][7]. - Companies like China Resources Land and China Merchants Shekou are also expanding their presence in property operations, with significant growth in recurring income and rental revenues [6]. - The market conditions are improving, with expectations for a recovery in 2026, as companies work towards repairing their balance sheets and potentially achieving profitability [8].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China continues to experience a downward adjustment, but signs of stabilization are emerging after four years of decline, with a notable reduction in the year-on-year decline rates for sales, new construction, and price indices [2][3]. Sales Performance - In 2025, new home sales reached 881 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%, while residential sales were 733 million square meters, down 9.2%. This marks a significant improvement compared to the 12.9% decline in 2024 [2]. - The total sales amount for new homes was 8.39 trillion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year, with residential sales at 7.33 trillion yuan, a decrease of 13.0% [2][3]. - The decline in sales amount is greater than the decline in sales area, indicating developers are adopting a "price reduction promotion" strategy, with the average price of new homes dropping by 4.1% [3]. Development Activity - New construction area for homes in 2025 was 588 million square meters, down 20.4% year-on-year, with residential new construction at approximately 430 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8% [3][4]. - The reduction in new construction reflects a proactive approach to "de-inventory" in response to the adjustments in sales [4]. Inventory and Supply - The growth of new home inventory has slowed significantly, with a year-on-year increase of only 1.6% in 2025, compared to an average annual growth of 13.4% from 2022 to 2024 [4]. - The reduction in inventory is attributed to both proactive de-inventory efforts by the industry and market self-adjustment, which helps stabilize market expectations [4]. Price Trends - The price index for new homes and second-hand homes in 70 cities fell by 3.0% and 6.1% respectively in 2025, with declines significantly smaller than those in 2024 [4]. - The stabilization of prices is crucial for the housing market, influenced by the "control increment" policy and structural reforms in supply [4]. Investment Trends - Real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% in 2025, reflecting a transition from rapid urbanization to a more stable phase of urban development [5]. - The decline in investment is seen as a natural progression, with potential for revitalizing existing stock to open new opportunities in the industry [5][6]. Stock Market Dynamics - Approximately 30% of existing homes are over 20 years old, indicating a significant demand for upgrades and renovations in the stock market [6]. - The increase in transactions of second-hand homes, particularly in mid-to-low price segments, reflects a shift in demand and supports a positive market cycle [6].

Core Insights - Chengdu's housing rental market data for Q4 2025 has been released, indicating average rental prices across various districts and types of housing [1][2] Rental Prices by District - In Sichuan Tianfu New District, the highest residential rental price is 34.02 (thousand) in Huayang Street, while the lowest is 15.50 in Xinxing Street [4] - Chengdu East New District shows a range from 15.52 in Shipan Street to 11.69 in Danjing Street [5] - Chengdu High-tech Zone has the highest rental prices, with residential rentals reaching 46.94 in Shiyang Street and 66.55 in Fangcao Street [5] - In Jinjiang District, the highest residential rental price is 42.95 in Shahe Street, while the lowest is 29.75 in Jinhua Road Street [5] - Qingyang District shows a range from 33.59 in Guanghua Street to 20.87 in Huangtianba Street [6] Additional District Insights - In Wuhou District, residential rentals range from 25.95 in Huaxing Street to 41.79 in Huoche South Station Street [7] - Chenghua District has residential rentals from 31.16 in Erxianqiao Street to 25.35 in Longtan Street [7] - Longquanyi District shows a range from 24.31 in Dami Street to 12.93 in Shanquan Town [7] - In Xindu District, the highest rental price is 21.60 in Tianfu Street, while the lowest is 16.75 in Xinfeng Street [8] Summary of Rental Prices - The rental prices vary significantly across different districts and types of housing, with the highest prices found in the Chengdu High-tech Zone and the lowest in Longquanyi District and Xindu District [5][7][8] - The data provides a comprehensive overview for potential renters to identify more affordable options within Chengdu [1][2]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is promoting urban management into communities to address local issues effectively [1] - In Chenzhou, real estate developers must complete building construction before selling properties, encouraging the sale of existing homes [2] - Beijing is revising the standard sales contract for commercial housing to reduce disputes and protect buyers' rights [3] Group 2 - Hangzhou's Yuhang District is offering a subsidy of 30,000 yuan for families purchasing new homes by the end of 2025 [4] - In Shanghai, over 50 real estate agencies have initiated a campaign for integrity in business practices [5] - Chengdu is allowing the conversion of self-owned rental housing into regular commercial housing for sale [6] Group 3 - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development held a national meeting to advance urban renewal efforts [7] - Shenzhen is set to implement a new modular construction standard by January 2026, leading the nation in this area [8] - Hebei is focusing on high-quality real estate development and improving foundational systems for property development and financing [9] Group 4 - Beijing's 14th Five-Year Plan aims to enhance the housing supply system and promote a dual rental and purchase housing policy [10] - Xiangtan is optimizing housing provident fund policies to better meet the needs of contributors and flexible employment workers [11] - Hainan allows the withdrawal of housing provident funds for medical expenses related to serious illnesses starting December 2025 [12] Group 5 - Tianjin is launching a campaign to combat false information in the real estate sector disseminated by self-media [13] - Chongqing is supporting the use of special bonds to recover and repurpose idle land [14] - Xuzhou is increasing the maximum housing provident fund loan limit by 30% for purchasing recognized improved housing [15] Group 6 - Fujian is accelerating the establishment of a new real estate development model and improving related systems [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing significant changes after over four years of adjustment and rebalancing, transitioning towards a high-quality development phase with evolving supply-demand structures, transaction patterns, and operational models [1]. Group 1: Transaction Trends - The total transaction volume in the real estate market is stabilizing, with second-hand homes increasingly dominating the market. As of January to November this year, second-hand home transactions accounted for 45% of total housing transaction area nationwide [1]. - Major first-tier cities have already entered a phase dominated by existing home transactions, with over 60% of total transactions in these cities being second-hand homes. In Beijing, this figure exceeds 80% [1]. - The total transaction volume of new and second-hand homes in 30 key cities has stopped declining year-on-year, indicating a "bottoming out" trend [1]. Group 2: Rental Market Development - The "rent and purchase" model is gradually taking shape, with rental housing becoming an important source of housing supply. The implementation of the Housing Rental Regulations in September has pushed the rental market towards a more regulated and legal framework [2]. - Changing housing consumption attitudes among young people and the implementation of policies like "equal rights for renting and buying" are leading to an increase in rental demand, particularly from families [2]. - Although short-term rental growth may divert some purchasing demand, it is expected to stabilize the market in the long run by mitigating irrational behaviors [2]. Group 3: Market Differentiation - The previous trend of uniform price increases across large, medium, and small cities is becoming less common, with significant differentiation emerging in the market. Different projects within the same city are experiencing varying sales performances [4]. - Some hot cities are showing positive signs of recovery, with seven cities reporting over 5% year-on-year growth in new and second-hand home transactions from January to November [4]. - The new market dynamics require real estate companies to shift from a scale-driven investment model to a more sustainable operational model focused on careful project management [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The Chinese real estate market is expected to undergo a series of changes and restructuring, driven by the construction of quality housing, ongoing urbanization, and urban renewal initiatives, which will introduce new supply, demand, and characteristics to the market [5].