芦哲、张佳炜（芦哲系东吴证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛成员） 核心观点 核心观点：美国7月CPI环比+0.2%，核心环比+0.32%，均符合预期，核心CPI环比终结连续5个月的不及预期。同比口径的预期差（CPI同比预期 +2.8%，实际+2.7%；核心CPI同比预期+3.0%，实际+3.06%）主要来自季调与四舍五入等技术问题。从通胀结构来看，二手车价格的如期反弹、关税对 家具&机动车零部件等的价格冲击，以及高波动的机票大涨、酒店价格跌幅收窄等均对本月通胀反弹有所贡献。这也意味着，关税对商品通胀的传导仍在 进行，同时服务通胀保持黏性，下行仍有阻力。 CPI数据公布后市场交易"通胀温和→降息预期升温→增长预期改善"的叙事逻辑，美股、长债利率上涨、 黄金下跌。向前看，当前市场计价的全年2.4次/61bps的降息预期至少存在11bps回调空间，对年内过于乐观的降息预期意味着未来美元指数与短债利率存 在上行风险。 美国7月CPI：环比与核心环比均符合预期。美国7月CPI环比+0.2%，核心环比+0.32%，均符合预期，核心CPI环比终结连续5个月的不及预期。同比口径 的预期差（CPI同比预期+2.8%，实际+ ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential misjudgment in the market's overwhelming consensus regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September, despite slightly lower-than-expected overall inflation data in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The latest dollar index price is reported at 97.75, with a decline of 0.05% from an opening price of 97.80 [1] - Core inflation data suggests that a rate cut is not guaranteed, indicating that the recent report may not be as optimistic as initially perceived [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - There is a prevailing market expectation for a rate cut in September, but the actual likelihood may be lower than anticipated [1] - If the Federal Reserve does not cut rates in September, it could lead to significant disappointment in the market [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - A bearish flag pattern support trendline is at risk of being broken, which could lead the dollar index to test the July low around 96.37 [1] - The current trendline is situated in the critical technical range of 97.98-98.09, with a potential drop below this level targeting 97.00 before reaching new lows in 2025 [1] - Resistance is observed at 98.95 for the dollar index [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index decreased by 0.28% to 97.80, while most non-US currencies appreciated against the dollar [1] Currency Movements - The euro rose by 0.27% against the dollar, reaching 1.1705 [1] - The British pound increased by 0.57% against the dollar, reaching 1.3578 [1] - The Australian dollar appreciated by 0.25% against the dollar, reaching 0.6546 [1] - The US dollar fell by 0.33% against the Japanese yen, reaching 147.3740 [1] - The US dollar decreased by 0.09% against the Canadian dollar, reaching 1.3759 [1] - The US dollar declined by 0.19% against the Swiss franc, reaching 0.8054 [1]

Group 1 - The core CPI year-on-year for July increased to 3.1%, surpassing the previous value of 2.9% and the expected value of 3% [1] - The nominal CPI year-on-year for July remained at 2.7%, matching the previous value but falling short of the expected 2.8% [1] - The core CPI's increase of 0.2 percentage points indicates strong consumer demand, suggesting insufficient reasons for the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts [3] Group 2 - Following the CPI data release, the dollar index experienced a sharp decline, dropping from 98.55 to 98.18 within five minutes, continuing to fall in the subsequent hours [3] - The market interprets the inflation performance as weaker than predicted by Powell, with Trump's tariff policies not significantly raising inflation levels [3] - The dollar index has been in a weak cycle, declining from a high of 110.15 to a low of 96.34, reflecting a cumulative drop of 12.53% this year [4]

Inflation Trends - The core CPI in the US rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.0% year-on-year in July, with a month-on-month increase of 0.32%, marking the second-highest rise since April 2024[3] - Core durable goods prices increased significantly by 0.36% month-on-month, while energy prices fell by 1.07%, indicating the impact of elevated tariff rates on goods inflation[4] - The labor market's cooling has not significantly affected inflation, as average hourly wages rebounded, sustaining the wage inflation spiral[4] Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The strong rebound in core inflation may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates, as maintaining a long-term inflation target of 2% becomes challenging[5] - The ongoing high tariff rates, ranging from 10% to 41%, are expected to further influence the core CPI in the coming months as trade agreements are finalized[5] - The anticipated effects of large-scale tax cuts for residents and businesses have yet to materialize, suggesting that inflationary pressures may persist[5] Economic Outlook - The current economic cycle is likely to remain heated, with potential upward pressure on core inflation due to a tighter labor market and rising wage growth[5] - The divergence in monetary policy among major developed economies may lead to a rebound in the US dollar index as it adjusts to real interest rate differentials[5] - Risks include the possibility that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may not meet expectations, which could constrain monetary easing in other countries[6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a significant rise in the serious delinquency rate of U.S. student loans in the first half of 2025, primarily due to the concentrated entry of overdue records into the credit system after the end of the repayment freeze, rather than a deterioration in household credit quality [1][3]. Group 1: Student Loan Overview - As of now, the total outstanding U.S. student loans amount to approximately $1.6 trillion, accounting for 9% of total household liabilities, affecting around 45.2 million borrowers [3]. - The average monthly repayment amount for student loans is typically over $200 [3]. - The serious delinquency rate for student loans is projected to jump from 0.7% in Q4 2024 to 12.9% in Q2 2025, marking the highest level since 2004 [3]. Group 2: Household Financial Health - The overall financial condition of U.S. households is characterized as "tepid," with the current household debt-to-asset ratio at less than 11%, and debt-to-GDP ratio around 70% [4]. - The household debt service ratio is approximately 11%, indicating moderate repayment pressure [4]. - While the delinquency rate for residential loans remains stable and low, the delinquency rate for consumer loans has risen to the highest level since 2012, suggesting increased financial pressure on weaker credit groups [4]. Group 3: Credit Market Dynamics - The consumer loan market is exhibiting a "weak demand but not accelerating cooling" trend, with banks maintaining strict but slightly loosening lending standards [4]. - There has not been a drastic decline in customer loan demand, indicating that while credit expansion lacks strong momentum, systemic contraction risks have not emerged [4]. - The overall health of household credit conditions, combined with a positive year-on-year growth in actual M2, suggests ample liquidity in the real economy, with a low likelihood of a debt crisis in the short term [4]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - Despite a reduction in economic growth momentum, the expected economic slowdown is anticipated to be moderate, influenced by the clarity of Trump's tariff policies and the implementation of fiscal expansion policies [4]. - The report suggests limited further downside for the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield, with support expected for the U.S. dollar index and corporate earnings [4]. - Following a sharp rebound in U.S. stocks after disappointing non-farm payroll data in July, the current low equity risk premium indicates short-term volatility risks, advising investors to wait for potential adjustments before making new investments [4].

美元指数DXY失守98，日内跌0.02%。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

新华财经纽约8月12日电美元指数12日下跌。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.43%，在汇市尾市收于98.097。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1669美元，高于前一交易日的1.1612美元；1英镑兑换1.3496美元，高 于前一交易日的1.3436美元。 （文章来源：新华社） 1美元兑换147.73日元，低于前一交易日的148.14日元；1美元兑换0.8074瑞士法郎，低于前一交易日的 0.8123瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3777加元，低于前一交易日的1.3778加元；1美元兑换9.5486瑞典克朗，低 于前一交易日的9.6382瑞典克朗。 ...

Core Points - The ICE Dollar Index fell by 0.41% to 98.114 points, with a trading range of 98.622 to 97.897 points during the day [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index decreased by 0.40% to 1203.38 points, with a trading range of 1208.65 to 1201.35 points [1] - The decline in the dollar indices occurred after the release of the U.S. CPI inflation data, which was anticipated to impact market movements [1]

Group 1 - The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen below 98, experiencing a daily decline of 0.49% [1]