◎记者 范子萌 在美元指数下行和全球金融资产价格总体上涨的共同推动下，我国外汇储备规模延续上升态势。 国家外汇管理局2月7日公布的数据显示，截至1月末，我国外汇储备规模为33991亿美元，较2025年12月 末上升412亿美元，升幅为1.23%。 今年1月，我国外储规模实现连续第6个月增加。412亿美元的单月增幅，也创下2024年1月以来的新高。 谈及外储余额的持续增长，中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛对上海证券报记者表示，这主要反映了主要 经济体货币政策及预期、宏观经济数据等因素影响下，汇率折算和资产价格变化带来的正估值效应。 "1月，受美国经济基本面变化、地缘政治风险演变，叠加美联储主席提名等因素影响，美元走势一波三 折，连续第三个月走弱。同期，全球主要金融资产价格总体上涨。"管涛具体分析道。 回顾1月全球市场表现。汇率方面：美元指数下跌1.4%至97.0，月中一度跌至四年来低点；非美货币齐 涨，日元、欧元、英镑对美元分别上涨1.23%、0.9%和1.6%。资产价格方面：10年期美国国债收益率上 涨8个基点至4.26%；全球股市整体震荡偏强，标普500指数环比上涨1.4%，欧洲斯托克指数上涨3.4%， 日经指 ...

Core Viewpoint - As of January 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $339.91 billion, marking an increase of $41.2 billion from December 2025, representing a growth rate of 1.23% [1] Group 1: Current Foreign Exchange Reserves - The foreign exchange reserves are at a relatively high level of over $3.3 trillion [2] - The increase in reserves in January was driven by a combination of factors, including a decline in the US dollar index and a general rise in global financial asset prices [2][3] - The dollar index fell by 1.2% to 97.1 in January, with non-US currencies appreciating against the dollar [2][3] Group 2: Economic Analysis - The increase in foreign reserves is supported by the resilience of China's economy and the ongoing enhancement of cross-border investment and financing policies [1][5] - The strong performance of exports, particularly in the machinery and equipment sectors, has contributed to the stability of foreign reserves [5] - The capital market's attractiveness to foreign investors is expected to continue growing, bolstered by favorable economic conditions [5] Group 3: Gold Reserves - As of January, China's gold reserves stood at 7.419 million ounces, with a slight increase of 40,000 ounces from the previous month [6] - The central bank's gold accumulation is seen as a strategy to optimize the international reserve structure amid rising geopolitical risks and fluctuating international gold prices [6][7] - The current gold reserve proportion is approximately 9.7%, significantly lower than the global average of around 15%, indicating a need for continued accumulation of gold reserves [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - As of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,579 billion, an increase of $11.5 billion from the end of November 2025, influenced by various economic factors [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves increased by $11.5 billion from November to December 2025 [1] - The increase in reserves is attributed to the decline in the US dollar index and fluctuations in global financial asset prices [1] - The stable economic conditions in China are expected to support the stability of foreign exchange reserves [1]

Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of November 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,464 billion, an increase of $30 billion from the end of October, representing a growth rate of 0.09% [1] - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to factors such as macroeconomic data from major economies and expectations regarding monetary policy, which led to a decline in the US dollar index and mixed performance in global financial asset prices [1] - China's economy is maintaining a stable and progressive development trend, which supports the stability of foreign exchange reserves [1] Group 2: Gold Reserves - As of the end of November, China's gold reserves stood at 7,412 million ounces (approximately 2,305.39 tons), with a month-on-month increase of 3,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons), marking the 13th consecutive month of gold accumulation [2] - The current spot gold price has decreased by 0.28% to $4,197 per ounce [2] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold has entered its third upward cycle since 2019, with a cumulative increase of 219% over six years, indicating potential for further growth compared to previous cycles [3] - The rise in gold prices is supported by three attributes: monetary (challenges to the US dollar credit system), commodity (average annual growth of central bank gold purchases from 2020 to 2024 at 44%), and financial (the pricing framework of real interest rates partially failing in a high inflation environment) [3] - Key variables influencing future gold prices include geopolitical risks, growth in gold reserves, and changes in real interest rates [3] Group 4: Future Gold Demand and Price Projections - Official demand for gold is expected to replace price-sensitive consumer demand, with projections indicating a rebound to 1,053 tons per year by 2026 [4] - The normalization of inflows into gold ETFs has led to a significant upward revision of the average price target for 2026 from $4,000 per ounce to $4,450 per ounce [4]

Core Viewpoint - As of the end of November 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,464 billion, reflecting an increase of $3 billion from the end of October, representing a growth rate of 0.09% [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves increased by $3 billion in November 2025, marking a 0.09% rise compared to the end of October [1] - The increase in reserves is attributed to the impact of macroeconomic data and monetary policy expectations from major economies, alongside fluctuations in asset prices [1] - The overall stability and progressive development of China's economy have provided support for maintaining a stable level of foreign exchange reserves [1]

Core Insights - China's foreign exchange reserves reached a record high of $33,433 billion as of October 2025, marking a $47 billion increase from September, and maintaining above $3.3 trillion for three consecutive months, the highest level since December 2015 [2][3] - The diversification of China's international reserve assets continues to progress steadily, with gold reserves increasing by 30,000 ounces to 7,409 million ounces, marking the 12th consecutive month of gold accumulation [2][5] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to the strengthening of the US dollar and the overall rise in global financial asset prices, which provided a supportive effect for China's reserves [3] - In October, the US dollar index rose by 2.1% to 99.8, reaching a new high since August, while major global stock indices saw significant increases, contributing to the positive valuation effect on China's foreign reserves [3] - Experts suggest that the current level of foreign reserves is slightly above $3 trillion and is considered adequately sufficient, providing important support for maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium [3][4] Group 2: Gold Reserves - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 30,000 ounces in October, continuing a trend of accumulation amid high gold prices, which reached a historical peak of $4,294 per ounce before settling around $4,000 [5] - The ongoing accumulation of gold reserves is seen as a strategy to optimize the structure of foreign exchange reserves and mitigate risks associated with a high proportion of dollar assets, especially in the context of fluctuating dollar values and geopolitical risks [5]

Group 1 - As of October 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 33,433 billion USD, an increase of 4.7 billion USD from the end of September, representing a growth rate of 0.14% [1] - The rise in foreign reserves is attributed to the combined effects of asset price changes and exchange rate fluctuations, with the dollar index increasing by 2.1% to 99.8 in October [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have led to a rise in dollar-denominated global bond indices by 0.8% and the S&P 500 index by 2.3%, while the Nikkei index surged by 16.6%, reaching a historical high [1] Group 2 - The recent guidelines from the Central Committee emphasize the importance of "expanding high-level opening up," highlighting the commitment to reform and development through openness [2] - In promoting trade innovation, there is a focus on market diversification, optimizing goods trade, and cultivating new growth points, with exports expected to play a stabilizing role in cross-border capital flows [2] - The guidelines also stress the need for orderly cross-border layout of industrial and supply chains, establishing a foundation for the basic balance of international payments in capital projects [2]

Core Points - As of the end of October 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $334.33 billion, an increase of $4.7 billion from the end of September, marking a rise of 0.14% and the highest level since December 2015 [1][3] - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to the impact of major economies' monetary policies, macroeconomic data, and the overall rise in global financial asset prices [1][3] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, along with the easing of China-U.S. trade relations, contributed to the overall increase in global asset prices and a rebound in the dollar [1][3] Summary by Category Foreign Exchange Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves have remained above $3.3 trillion for three consecutive months, supported by a combination of factors including the depreciation of the dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields [3][4] - The current level of foreign exchange reserves is considered to be at a relatively high level, with the People's Bank of China potentially engaging in foreign exchange net selling to maintain reserves within a reasonable range [4] Economic Indicators - In October, the U.S. dollar index rose, and global financial asset prices generally increased, with the U.S. S&P 500 index rising by 2.3% and the Nikkei index in Japan increasing by 16.6%, reaching a historical high [3] - The European Stoxx index also saw a rise of 2.6%, reflecting a slow recovery in the Eurozone economy [3] Future Outlook - The foreign exchange reserves are expected to remain stable in the future, providing important support for maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level amid increasing external volatility [4]

Core Insights - As of September 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $333.87 billion, marking a $16.5 billion increase from August, the highest level since December 2015 [1] - The increase in reserves is attributed to macroeconomic data, monetary policy, and asset price changes, with a stable economic environment supporting this growth [1][3] - The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months, with a total of 7.406 million ounces (approximately 2303.523 tons) as of September, reflecting a strategic balance in reserve optimization [2][3] Foreign Exchange Reserves - The foreign exchange reserves rose by $16.5 billion in September, driven by a combination of asset price changes and currency fluctuations [1] - The dollar index remained stable at 97.8, with the market having priced in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, leading to a release of downward pressure on the dollar [1][2] Asset Prices - Global asset prices saw an overall increase, with the S&P 500 index rising by 3.5% in September, supported by the Federal Reserve's liquidity release [2] - The Japanese Nikkei index increased by 5.4%, and the European Stoxx index rose by 1.2%, indicating strong performance in major economies [2] Gold Reserves - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 40,000 ounces in September, although the increase was lower than previous months [2] - The gold price saw a cumulative increase of over 10% in September, the largest monthly gain in 14 years, indicating strong demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][3] Economic Outlook - The ongoing uncertainties in global trade and geopolitical factors are expected to drive continued demand for gold from central banks and investors [3] - China's economic stability and high-quality development are anticipated to support the maintenance of foreign exchange reserves [3]

Core Viewpoint - As of September 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $333.87 billion, marking an increase of $16.5 billion from the end of August, representing a 0.5% rise. This is the highest level since December 2015, with a significant annual increase of $136.3 billion [1][2]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to the rise in global financial asset prices and the depreciation of the dollar, despite the dollar index remaining relatively stable [2][3]. - The foreign exchange reserves have now exceeded $3.3 trillion for two consecutive months, reflecting a stable economic environment in China [2][4]. Group 2: Gold Reserves - As of September 2025, China's gold reserves stood at 74.06 million ounces, with an increase for 11 consecutive months, although the increase has been modest in recent months [1][4]. - The central bank's continued accumulation of gold is driven by the changing global political and economic landscape, with expectations that international gold prices may remain high for an extended period [5][4]. Group 3: Economic Context - The overall economic stability and progress in high-quality development in China are favorable for maintaining a stable level of foreign exchange reserves [2][4]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts and the ongoing geopolitical risks have contributed to fluctuations in international gold prices, influencing China's gold reserve strategy [5][4].