投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期货多数上涨，新能源材料涨幅居前 ——中信期货晨报20251126 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | 板块 | 品种 | 现代 | | | 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 4473 | 0.85% | 101% | -3.42% | -3.14% | 14.08% | | | 上证50期货 | 2959.2 | 0.50% | Q 43% | -1 88% | -1 00% | 10.50% | | | 中证500期货 | 6900 | THOS | Task | -4 33 | -5.35% | 21.20% | | | 中证1000期货 | 7172 | 1 0 ...

【澳新银行：日本官员的口头干预不太可能持续提振日元】澳新银行表示，仅靠口头干预不太可能对美 元兑日元产生持续影响，该货币对的焦点仍将是美联储和日本央行的利率走势、日本的财政前景以及将 要出炉的美国数据。 ...

贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/11/24 | 价 格 表 现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 伦敦金 | 伦敦银 | 伦敦铂 | 伦敦钯 | WTI原油 | LME铜 | | 最新 | 4072.85 | 48.91 | 1545.00 | 1404.00 | 58.06 | 10675.50 | | 变化 | -17.75 | -1.94 | -12.00 | -4.00 | -0.94 | -83.50 | | 品种 | 美元指数 | 欧元兑美元 | 英镑兑美元 | 美元兑日元 | 美国10年期TIPS | | | 最新 | 100.22 | 1.15 | 1.31 | 157.46 | 1.82 | | | 变化 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | | 交 易 数 据 | 日期 | COMEX白银 | 上期所白银 | 黄金ETF持仓 | 白银ETF持仓 | 上金所白银 | 上金所黄金 | 上金所白银 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Group 1: Employment Data Overview - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for September showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, marking the largest monthly gain since April [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, slightly above the previous value of 4.3% and higher than the market expectation of 4.3%, indicating a structural change as more potential workers entered the job market [3] - Average hourly wage growth year-on-year was recorded at 3.8%, surpassing the expected 3.7%, while the month-on-month growth was only 0.2%, below the expected 0.3% [3] Group 2: Sector-Specific Employment Trends - The healthcare sector was a key driver of job growth, adding 43,000 jobs in September, with outpatient care contributing 23,000 and hospitals adding 16,000 [3] - Conversely, several sectors experienced job losses, including a reduction of 3,000 jobs in federal government employment, continuing a trend of workforce downsizing since January [4] - The transportation and warehousing sector saw a decrease of 25,000 jobs, linked to the slowdown in e-commerce growth and supply chain adjustments, while manufacturing lost 6,000 jobs amid ongoing economic recovery challenges [4] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the data release, spot gold prices initially dropped nearly $20 but later rebounded as the market reacted to dovish signals from wage growth and rising unemployment [4] - Non-U.S. currencies strengthened, with the euro rising 30 points against the dollar and the pound increasing nearly 35 points, while the dollar index faced downward pressure [4] - Traders increased bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, although the likelihood of a cut in December remains low [4]

Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4126.95 with a change of 66.10 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 52.20 with a change of 1.90 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 1534.00 with a change of -3.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1411.00 with a change of 26.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 60.74 with a change of 0.00 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 10742.00 with a change of 60.00 [1] - US Dollar Index's latest value is 100.12 with a change of 0.53 [1] - Euro to US Dollar's latest rate is 1.15 with a change of -0.00 [1] - British Pound to US Dollar's latest rate is 1.31 with a change of -0.01 [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen's latest rate is 157.18 with a change of 1.66 [1] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest value is 1.85 with a change of 0.00 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory's latest value is 14386.29 with a change of -93.47 [1] - SHFE Silver inventory's latest value is 547.69 with a change of -15.98 [1] - Gold ETF持仓's latest value is 1043.72 with a change of 2.29 [1] - Silver ETF持仓's latest value is 15226.88 with a change of 8.46 [1] - SGE Silver inventory's latest value is 830.31 with a change of 0.00 [1] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction's latest value is 2 with a change of 1.00 [1] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction's latest value is 1 with a change of -1.00 [1] Data Source - The data in the above charts are from Bloomberg, Yong'an Yuandian Information, and Wind [4]

Core Insights - The article provides a market analysis focusing on currency pairs including Euro to US Dollar, US Dollar to Japanese Yen, Australian Dollar to US Dollar, and New Zealand Dollar to US Dollar [1] Group 1: Currency Pair Analysis - The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate is a key focus, indicating fluctuations that may impact investment strategies [1] - The US Dollar to Japanese Yen is analyzed for its potential volatility and implications for trade [1] - The Australian Dollar to US Dollar and New Zealand Dollar to US Dollar pairs are also examined, highlighting their relevance in the current market landscape [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major asset classes lack further positive drivers. The market needs to digest previous gains, so major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation strategy for the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors allocate major asset classes evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction in the fourth quarter [8]. 3. Summary by Sections 2.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: This week, the global macro focus is on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is a short - term tightening trend, it is not expected to have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors that may improve US dollar liquidity: marginal easing of monetary policy and the normal release of funds in the TGA account once the US government resumes work [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, China's export volume growth was weaker than expected and the previous value, and the month - on - month performance was also weaker than the seasonal average. However, more positive information was found in the October inflation data. Additionally, there is a possibility that the October consumption data may slightly exceed expectations [8]. 2.2 View Highlights Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active. With the congestion of small - cap funds, it is expected to fluctuate and rise [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume has slightly declined. With the option market liquidity falling short of expectations, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. Considering factors such as policy, fundamental recovery, and tariffs, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: With the easing of geopolitical and trade tensions, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. Affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: As the peak season in the third quarter fades, there is pressure on loading and a lack of upward drivers. Pay attention to the rate of freight decline in September, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: In the off - season, demand is under pressure, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. Pay attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The pressure of inventory accumulation is released in advance, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve. Affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather, port inventory, and policy, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Coke**: Three rounds of price increases have been implemented, and a fourth round is proposed. Pay attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Due to the tight US dollar liquidity, the copper price is in a short - term adjustment. Affected by supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed's policy, and domestic demand, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Aluminum**: With the linkage between stocks and futures, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and rise. However, it is affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production is uncertain, and there is a risk of significant price fluctuations. Affected by demand, supply, and new technologies, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks remain. Affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation, it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **LPG**: Supply is still in surplus. Pay attention to the cost side, such as crude oil and overseas propane, and it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: With the strength of refined oil products, it may run strongly. Affected by crude oil prices, it is expected to fluctuate and rise [11]. Agriculture - **Pig**: There is a game between supply and demand, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate and fall. Affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - **Natural Rubber**: The futures price rebounds strongly, and its sustainability needs attention. Affected by production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes, it is expected to fluctuate and fall [11]. - **Cotton**: The price fluctuation range is limited. Affected by demand and inventory, it is expected to fluctuate [11].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index increased by 0.07% to 99.62, with mixed performance among non-US currencies [1] Currency Performance - The euro declined by 0.06% against the US dollar, trading at 1.1557 [1] - The British pound appreciated by 0.10% against the US dollar, reaching 1.3176 [1] - The Australian dollar rose by 0.65% against the US dollar, at 0.6536 [1] - The US dollar strengthened by 0.46% against the Japanese yen, trading at 154.1325 [1] - The US dollar decreased by 0.18% against the Canadian dollar, at 1.4021 [1] - The US dollar fell by 0.02% against the Swiss franc, trading at 0.8049 [1]

Economic Impact - The White House economic advisor Hassett stated that the government "shutdown" could have a far greater impact on the U.S. economy than previously expected, potentially causing long-term damage to government efficiency and leading to a slowdown in Q4 GDP growth [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant indicated that if the "shutdown" continues, economic growth in Q4 could be halved [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson suggested that the Fed should be more cautious in future policy actions as interest rates are closer to neutral levels [2] - New York Fed President Williams mentioned that the Fed may soon need to expand its balance sheet through asset purchases to meet liquidity needs, although this does not indicate a change in monetary policy stance [2] - St. Louis Fed President Bullard projected that monetary policy is in a moderately tight to neutral range, with 50 to 75 basis points of policy adjustment space remaining if rates decline further [2] Consumer Confidence - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for November is at 50.3, marking the lowest level since June 2022 [3] Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.16% to 46,987.1 points, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.13% to 6,728.8 points. The Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.21% to 23,004.54 points [4] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.42% to $4,007.8 per ounce, and silver futures increased by 0.57% to $48.225 per ounce [5] Oil and Bond Market - The main contract for U.S. oil rose by 0.69% to $59.84 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 0.47% to $63.68 per barrel [6] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 0.43 basis points to 3.560%, the 5-year yield increased by 0.52 basis points to 3.682%, the 10-year yield rose by 1.54 basis points to 4.097%, and the 30-year yield increased by 2.04 basis points to 4.699% [6]

Group 1 - The article discusses the VPC indicator strategy, which is intended for reference and not as investment advice [1] - The strategy update was released on November 7, 2025, at 15:50 Beijing time [1] Group 2 - The article provides a bullish scenario for the price above 48.07 and a bearish scenario below this level [5] - Key resistance levels are identified at 48.73, 49.02, and 49.23, while support levels are at 48.40, 48.17, and 47.80 [5] Group 3 - The article includes information on the Euro/USD currency pair, with a current price of 1.15316, showing a slight decrease of 0.00001 (-0.00%) [9] - The article outlines a bearish scenario below 1.1533 and a bullish scenario above this level [9] - Key support levels are at 1.1521, 1.1509, and 1.1496, while resistance levels are at 1.15550 and 1.15525 [9] Group 4 - The article mentions a bullish scenario for the price above 0.6485 and a bearish scenario below this level [15] - Key support levels are at 0.6470, 0.6442, and 0.6370, while resistance levels are at 0.6496, 0.6512, and 0.6522 [15]