Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, marking the third pause in rate hikes this year, reflecting a cautious assessment of the current economic situation [1] - The Fed's "silence" is an active response to multiple challenges, including the potential impact of tariff policies, inflation structure divergence, and regional economic imbalances [1] Inflation Dynamics - The overall inflation rate in the U.S. has dropped to 2.3% year-on-year, the lowest since 2021, primarily driven by falling food prices; however, the core CPI remains stubbornly at 2.8%, exceeding the Fed's 2% target [3] - The persistent high service prices, such as housing and healthcare, versus the cyclical decline in goods prices illustrate a complex inflation landscape [3] Regional Economic Disparities - A Fed internal survey reveals a "dual mirror" of the U.S. economy, with tourism-heavy areas like Las Vegas facing significant declines in hotel occupancy and gaming revenue, while resource-rich regions like Utah and Alaska benefit from high commodity prices [4] - This regional economic imbalance poses significant challenges for Fed policy-making, as traditional reliance on national data may fail to capture local economic conditions [4] Policy Signals and Divergence - There is a notable divide within the Fed regarding economic outlook; some officials emphasize a strong labor market and robust consumer spending, while others warn of declining business confidence and potential "second inflation" due to tariff policies [4] - This contradictory stance reflects the Fed's struggle to balance "data dependence" with "forward guidance" amid evolving economic conditions [4] Market Expectations - Despite the Fed's emphasis on data-driven policy, the market anticipates a greater than 60% probability of a rate cut in September, reflecting historical memories of the Fed's delayed responses [6] - The Fed must be cautious of repeating past mistakes by prematurely easing policies, which could reignite inflation expectations or excessively delaying could tighten financial conditions and trigger a recession [6] The Fed's Dilemma - The Fed faces a "trilemma" involving three constraints: maintaining a tight policy stance due to core inflation, allowing flexibility in response to regional economic disparities and tariff impacts, and ensuring financial stability amid high interest rates [7] - The Fed is likely to continue a "data-driven" strategy, balancing between quantitative tightening and interest rate adjustments to manage inflation and risk [7] Conclusion - The Fed's current inaction is not an endpoint but the beginning of a new policy negotiation phase, emphasizing the need for a dynamic market perspective amid uncertainties in inflation, growth, and policy [8]

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in U.S. long-term Treasury yields has led to an increase in the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, with the dollar index showing fluctuations throughout the trading day [1][2][3]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yields and Dollar Index - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased by 6.5 basis points, closing at 4.538%, providing support for the dollar [3]. - The dollar index rose by 0.03%, closing at 101.037 [2]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson noted that while recent inflation data shows progress towards the 2% target, the outlook remains uncertain due to potential price increases from import tariffs [3]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated that April's mild consumer price inflation may not reflect the impact of rising import tariffs, indicating a need for more data to assess price and economic trends [3]. Group 3: Currency Movements and Trade Negotiations - Market rumors suggested that the U.S. is seeking a weaker dollar in trade negotiations, but this was denied by Bloomberg citing anonymous sources [4]. - The Japanese yen saw the largest gain against the dollar among G10 currencies, supported by potential discussions on exchange rates in trade talks and hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor [4]. - As of the end of the New York trading session, the euro was at 1.1178 USD, the pound at 1.3264 USD, and the dollar was at 146.72 JPY, among other currency values [4].

巴西央行会议纪要：货币政策适度收紧的调整将继续以实现相关期限内通胀回归目标为指导。 ...

面临关税不确定性，日本央行仍未放弃加息 金十数据5月13日讯，日本央行4月货币政策会议审议委员意见摘要显示，尽管他们对美国关税的潜在影 响变得更加谨慎，但他们并未放弃进一步加息。在4月30日至5月1日的会议上，一名委员表示，"央行需 要观望，直到美国关税政策的进展有所确定。"一名委员称："随着美国经济减速，日本央行将进入暂停 政策加息的阶段，但不应过于悲观，"该委员补充说："需要以灵活和更灵活的方式实施货币政策，例如 根据美国的政策变化进一步提高政策利率。"另一位委员还表示，实现通胀目标的最重要因素是企业的 工资和价格设定行为，以及企业和家庭的通胀预期。这位委员说，日本经济回到工资和物价增长有限的 状态的风险很小。日本央行行长植田和男此前表示，他仍预计基础通胀率将达到日本央行2%的目标， 不过这可能需要比预期更长的时间。 ...

英国央行副行长隆巴尔代利：工资增长对于通胀目标来说仍然太高。 ...

英国央行行长贝利：我们对2%通胀目标的承诺坚定不移。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall inflation rate in the UK has remained close to the 2% target level over the past year, although it is slightly above the average level [1] Group 1 - The UK central bank governor, Bailey, highlighted the stability of the inflation rate around the target [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of England reaffirms that monetary policy will need to remain tight until the risks of inflation returning to the 2% target in the medium term are further eliminated, ensuring the sustainability of this target [1]

英国央行：丁格拉和泰勒看到了持续低于通胀目标的风险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England emphasizes the necessity of maintaining a restrictive monetary policy for an extended period until the risks of inflation sustainably returning to the 2% target diminish [1] Group 1 - The Bank of England's stance indicates a commitment to controlling inflation through prolonged restrictive measures [1] - The focus on a 2% inflation target highlights the central bank's priority in stabilizing the economy [1]