❖ 省级两会关注什么？ 宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 地方两会的"信息点" ❖ 省级两会什么时候召开？ 省级两会通常在农历春节前召开完毕。今年春节在 2 月中旬，因此省级两会集 中在 1 月下旬到 2 月上旬。但到 1 月下旬即可初步把握 2026 年省级两会的整 体基调。 一方面，GDP 占比过半省份明确在 1 月召开两会。截至目前，已有 17 省市明 确在 1 月召开人代会。2024 年，这 17 省 GDP 合计在全国占比 57.3%。 另一方面，6 个经济大省中，有 4 个经济大省明确于 1 月召开两会。在每年省 级两会中，我们尤其关注经济大省情况，因为全国 GDP 高度集中在这 6 个省 份中，2024 年 GDP 合计占比 44.4%。其中浙江作为经济强省率先开局（1 月 14 日），河南、山东、广东则分别将于 1 月 26 日、1 月、1 月下旬召开人代会。江 苏召开时间为 2 月上旬，四川还待定。 1、未来五年 GDP 目标：是否设置目标、是否为区间目标。目前而言，已召开 会议的长沙为区间目标，"未来五年主要预期目标：地区生产总值年均增长 5%- 5.5%"，此前"十四五"时 ...

Group 1 - The core argument suggests that the U.S. may abandon its 2% inflation target, with employment issues remaining unresolved even if this occurs [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate of price stability and full employment is facing structural conflict, as employment has become a dominant variable in the U.S. political system [2][5] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the unemployment rate will drop to 4.6% this year and further to 4.4% by 2028, indicating a classic dilemma for the Federal Reserve [5] Group 2 - The current rise in unemployment is characterized as structural rather than cyclical, primarily due to AI replacing human jobs [6] - A McKinsey survey indicates that 78% of organizations are using AI in at least one business function, a 40% increase from 2023 [8] - Research shows that 38% of executives trust AI for business decision-making, and 44% prefer AI reasoning over their own insights, highlighting a shift in reliance on AI [10] Group 3 - The potential for monetary easing to stimulate employment may backfire, as it could accelerate the replacement of workers with AI tools rather than creating traditional jobs [10][12] - The abandonment of the 2% inflation target in favor of employment may not effectively address the structural challenges posed by AI, potentially leading to deeper systemic risks [12]

编者按：日前召开的中央经济工作会议，明确了明年经济工作的总体要求和政策取向，部署了明年经济 工作"八个坚持"的重点任务，抓住关键、纲举目张。为深入学习贯彻会议精神，本报即日起推出"落实 会议部署问答中国经济"系列述评，围绕发展目标设定、赤字规模安排、推动投资企稳等10个方面热点 问题展开讨论，敬请关注。 做好经济工作，离不开量化的预期目标做牵引。国内生产总值（GDP）增速、居民消费价格涨幅、城镇 新增就业数量、城镇调查失业率等，是社会各界最为关注的几个发展目标。目前距离明年全国两会政府 工作报告公布具体数值还有时日，但根据中央经济工作会议透露的政策信息，可以描画部分预期目标的 大致轮廓。 中央经济工作会议提出"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"，这一积极定调 本身有助于稳定通胀预期，而通胀预期对实际的通胀水平本身具有牵引作用；同时，明年货币政策基调 继续维持"适度宽松"，人民银行近日表态明年要"促进社会综合融资成本低位运行，加强对实体经济的 金融支持"，表明实体经济融资利率将进一步走低，这为促进物价合理回升提供持续有利的利率环境。 因此，目前市场普遍看好明年价格保持温和上涨，企业盈利改善 ...

Core Viewpoint - The December monetary policy will be a "real balancing act" between employment and inflation targets, as inflation remains high without signs of decline, while the economy shows some resilience [1] Economic Conditions - Many Americans are struggling with housing and other living costs, indicating economic pressure on the middle and lower-income groups [1] - There is evidence that these groups are facing issues related to economic affordability, which poses risks to consumer confidence and spending [1]

Core Insights - The most actively traded December 2025 gold futures price increased by $26.6, closing at $4159.6 per ounce, with a rise of 0.64% [1] - December gold futures reached a historical high of $4190.90 per ounce overnight, while December silver futures hit a record high of $52.495 per ounce, although both closed significantly lower than their overnight peaks [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed will adjust interest rate policies based on economic outlook and risk balance, rather than following a predetermined path [1] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed later this month, with another expected in December, following a previous cut of the same magnitude in September [1] - Despite recent consolidation risks for gold and silver, Bank of America maintains that both metals will continue their upward trend, forecasting prices of $5000 per ounce for gold and $65 for silver next year [1] - On a technical level, December gold futures bulls hold a strong overall technical advantage, with the next upward target being a breakout above the solid resistance level of $4300, while bears aim to break below the solid technical support level of $3900 [1] Silver Futures - The December silver futures price decreased by 8.4 cents, closing at $50.345 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.17% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in maintaining its dual mandate of price stability and full employment, with concerns about rising inflation and its persistence [1] Group 1: Inflation Concerns - The inflation rate in the U.S. may continue to rise, raising worries about both the level and duration of inflation [1] - The focus on inflation is described as being laser-like, indicating a strong commitment to addressing this issue [1] Group 2: Employment and Labor Market - The current unemployment rate of 4.3% is considered healthy, suggesting a balanced supply-demand relationship in the labor market [1] - The employment situation is close to the target, with expectations that the unemployment rate will continue to rise slightly [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appointment of economist Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board is generating significant market attention, particularly as it coincides with an upcoming monetary policy meeting, adding complexity to interest rate expectations [1][4]. Group 1: Appointment and Implications - Miran's confirmation allows him to fill a vacancy and immediately participate in monetary policy decisions, which could influence future interest rate policies, inflation control, and employment targets [1][4]. - His extensive experience in economic policy and commitment to independence and compliance may help stabilize market confidence and alleviate concerns regarding policy independence [4][10]. Group 2: Economic Context - The U.S. economy is currently facing a delicate situation, with signs of weakness in the job market and persistent price pressures in certain areas, posing a challenge for the Federal Reserve to balance price stability and employment promotion [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Investors are particularly focused on Miran's stance on interest rate policy; a dovish position could lead to increased bets on further rate cuts, potentially boosting stock markets and risk assets, while a cautious or hawkish stance may temper expectations for easing [8]. - Miran emphasized the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence for the health of the economy and financial system, aligning with market expectations for transparency and reduced policy uncertainty [10]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The confirmation of Miran is viewed as a key variable in the future policy direction of the Federal Reserve, suggesting that while short-term market volatility may occur, the long-term outlook could benefit from a more diversified perspective and policy approach [10].

Group 1 - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data indicates a significant decline in the labor market, suggesting a broader weakening of the U.S. economy [1] - Despite the latest employment data, there is no intention to alter decisions at the upcoming FOMC monetary policy meeting, as the job market still appears to be in good shape [2] - There is no readiness to raise expectations for interest rate cuts before 2025, as the gap between inflation targets and employment targets remains significant [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Bowman advocates for a 25 basis point rate cut to counteract economic slowdown and protect the labor market, as inflation approaches target levels [1][2]. Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy shows resilience in the first half of the year, despite a significant slowdown in potential economic growth, with the labor market remaining close to full employment [3]. - Inflation is progressing towards the 2% target, particularly after excluding tariff-driven price increases, with core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation showing a notable decline [3][4]. Labor Market Insights - There are increasing concerns regarding the labor market, with signs of weakening vitality and a significant drop in the employment-population ratio [3][4]. - Non-farm employment continues to grow moderately, but companies are reducing hiring while retaining existing employees, with job growth concentrated in less economically sensitive sectors like healthcare [3]. Policy Recommendations - The company suggests a gradual approach to adjusting interest rates towards neutral levels to maintain close to full employment and achieve dual objectives of price stability and employment [5]. - Delaying action could worsen labor market conditions and further slow economic growth, making early and gradual adjustments preferable [5]. Decision-Making Consistency - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining consistency in monetary policy decisions in response to changing economic conditions, while acknowledging differing views among FOMC members [6].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged, with a rare dissent among members, indicating a divided opinion on current monetary policy [3] - The decision to keep the overnight rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% was made with a 9-2 vote, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without changes [3] - The Fed's statement highlighted that while the unemployment rate remains low, economic growth has "slowed somewhat" in the first half of the year, which may support future rate cuts if the trend continues [3] Group 2 - Silver T+D prices experienced significant fluctuations, with a current trading price of 8978 yuan/kg, down 2.15% from the opening price of 9153 yuan/kg [1] - The highest price reached during the day was 9153 yuan/kg, while the lowest dipped to 8936 yuan/kg, indicating a bearish short-term trend [1][4] - Key resistance levels for silver T+D are noted at 9153-9235 yuan/kg, with support levels identified at 8800-8936 yuan/kg [4]