美国克利夫兰联储主席Hammack（2026年FOMC票委）：降息源于风险平衡的转移。美联储（维持价格 稳定+实现充分就业这双重）职责都面临挑战。美国通胀率可能会继续上升。我担心通胀的水平和持续 时间，我就像激光一样专注通胀问题。4.3%的失业率相当健康，形势意味着劳动力市场的供需关系是 平衡的。我们非常接近就业目标。预计失业率将继续略微上升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appointment of economist Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board is generating significant market attention, particularly as it coincides with an upcoming monetary policy meeting, adding complexity to interest rate expectations [1][4]. Group 1: Appointment and Implications - Miran's confirmation allows him to fill a vacancy and immediately participate in monetary policy decisions, which could influence future interest rate policies, inflation control, and employment targets [1][4]. - His extensive experience in economic policy and commitment to independence and compliance may help stabilize market confidence and alleviate concerns regarding policy independence [4][10]. Group 2: Economic Context - The U.S. economy is currently facing a delicate situation, with signs of weakness in the job market and persistent price pressures in certain areas, posing a challenge for the Federal Reserve to balance price stability and employment promotion [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Investors are particularly focused on Miran's stance on interest rate policy; a dovish position could lead to increased bets on further rate cuts, potentially boosting stock markets and risk assets, while a cautious or hawkish stance may temper expectations for easing [8]. - Miran emphasized the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence for the health of the economy and financial system, aligning with market expectations for transparency and reduced policy uncertainty [10]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The confirmation of Miran is viewed as a key variable in the future policy direction of the Federal Reserve, suggesting that while short-term market volatility may occur, the long-term outlook could benefit from a more diversified perspective and policy approach [10].

Group 1 - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data indicates a significant decline in the labor market, suggesting a broader weakening of the U.S. economy [1] - Despite the latest employment data, there is no intention to alter decisions at the upcoming FOMC monetary policy meeting, as the job market still appears to be in good shape [2] - There is no readiness to raise expectations for interest rate cuts before 2025, as the gap between inflation targets and employment targets remains significant [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Bowman advocates for a 25 basis point rate cut to counteract economic slowdown and protect the labor market, as inflation approaches target levels [1][2]. Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy shows resilience in the first half of the year, despite a significant slowdown in potential economic growth, with the labor market remaining close to full employment [3]. - Inflation is progressing towards the 2% target, particularly after excluding tariff-driven price increases, with core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation showing a notable decline [3][4]. Labor Market Insights - There are increasing concerns regarding the labor market, with signs of weakening vitality and a significant drop in the employment-population ratio [3][4]. - Non-farm employment continues to grow moderately, but companies are reducing hiring while retaining existing employees, with job growth concentrated in less economically sensitive sectors like healthcare [3]. Policy Recommendations - The company suggests a gradual approach to adjusting interest rates towards neutral levels to maintain close to full employment and achieve dual objectives of price stability and employment [5]. - Delaying action could worsen labor market conditions and further slow economic growth, making early and gradual adjustments preferable [5]. Decision-Making Consistency - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining consistency in monetary policy decisions in response to changing economic conditions, while acknowledging differing views among FOMC members [6].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged, with a rare dissent among members, indicating a divided opinion on current monetary policy [3] - The decision to keep the overnight rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% was made with a 9-2 vote, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without changes [3] - The Fed's statement highlighted that while the unemployment rate remains low, economic growth has "slowed somewhat" in the first half of the year, which may support future rate cuts if the trend continues [3] Group 2 - Silver T+D prices experienced significant fluctuations, with a current trading price of 8978 yuan/kg, down 2.15% from the opening price of 9153 yuan/kg [1] - The highest price reached during the day was 9153 yuan/kg, while the lowest dipped to 8936 yuan/kg, indicating a bearish short-term trend [1][4] - Key resistance levels for silver T+D are noted at 9153-9235 yuan/kg, with support levels identified at 8800-8936 yuan/kg [4]

Core Viewpoint - The current economic situation is unique, with risks related to both employment and inflation targets [1] Group 1 - Future actions may bring policy rates closer to neutral [1] - It is uncertain whether data will become clearer by the next policy meeting [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is currently in a good state, with risks to employment and inflation targets being "roughly balanced" [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - The current monetary policy is described as being in a good state, indicating stability in the economic environment [1] Employment and Inflation - Risks associated with employment and inflation targets are considered to be "roughly balanced," suggesting that neither area is significantly more at risk than the other at this time [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, is reassessing its monetary policy framework in light of recent inflation trends and potential supply chain disruptions, indicating a challenging economic environment ahead [1][2][4] - The current evaluation is part of the Fed's routine five-year review, reflecting significant changes in the economic landscape since 2020, including a shift from concerns about deflation to addressing rising inflation [2][3] - Powell emphasized the need to reconsider the "gap" between inflation and employment targets, suggesting that the Fed may need to adjust its approach to avoid misinterpreting low unemployment as an inflation risk [3] Monetary Policy Review - The Fed's review will take into account the substantial changes in the economic environment since 2020, with Powell stating that the assessment will reflect these changes [2] - Despite long-term inflation expectations aligning with the Fed's 2% target, the era of near-zero interest rates is unlikely to return soon, complicating monetary policy decisions [2] - The review will also focus on improving communication strategies to better convey uncertainties surrounding economic conditions and forecasts [3] Global Economic Impact - Powell's remarks highlight the Fed's difficult choices in navigating the current complex economic landscape, with potential implications for global economic stability [4] - Market participants are closely monitoring the Fed's forthcoming actions and policy adjustments to better prepare for emerging risks and challenges [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary emphasizes the inevitable connection between inflation and employment, suggesting that the Federal Reserve should focus on both price stability and employment goals simultaneously [1] Group 1 - Inflation and employment are inherently linked, indicating that changes in one can affect the other [1] - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate includes maintaining price stability while also achieving maximum employment [1]