2026 年 2 月 26 日，全球金融市场的定价核心锚点，正牢牢锁定在美联储货币政策预期的深度博弈之中。当日，明确预计美联储将在 2026 年年内仅再降息 25 个基点，这一预测显著低于当前利率期货市场定价的全年约 50 个基点的降息预期，再度点燃了市场对美联储利率路径的分歧。与此同时，美联储最新发 布的点阵图彻底暴露了决策层的内部分裂：7 名官员认为 2026 年应完全按兵不动，维持当前 3.50%-3.75% 的基准利率不变，另有 8 名官员则支持年内至少 降息两次，双方力量几乎势均力敌。 这场从美联储内部蔓延至华尔街的预期分歧，本质上是市场对美国通胀韧性、经济前景与政策节奏的判断撕裂，也让全球大类资产的定价逻辑陷入重构。市 场分析人士指出，美联储政策预期的深度分化，不仅大幅增加了未来利率路径的不确定性，更将成为未来 1-2 个月全球金融市场高波动的核心推手。在此背 景下，投资者需摒弃对宽松政策的单边押注，密切跟踪通胀、就业等核心经济数据，动态调整投资组合，在不确定性中把握结构性机会。 一、预期博弈加剧：机构与市场的降息路线出现显著分化 双方分歧的核心，源于对美国经济基本面与通胀走势的判断差异。摩根大通 ...

来源：经济观察网 经济观察网 黑石集团（BX.N）2月19日股价下跌分析。当日股价大幅下跌6.14%，收盘价报124.74美 元，成交量约287万股。此次下跌逆转了前一交易日的上涨势头。 股票近期走势大幅下跌：2026年2月19日，黑石集团股价单日下跌6.14%，收盘价报124.74美元，盘中振 幅达4.37%。成交量约287万股，成交金额3.64亿美元，量比1.36显示交投活跃。对比前一日：前一交易 日（2月18日）股价收于132.90美元，单日涨幅1.25%。此次下跌逆转了短期上涨势头。 股价异动原因美联储政策分歧：2月19日公布的1月美联储会议纪要显示，官员对利率路径存在显著分 歧。部分官员认为若通胀持续高于目标可能需加息，另一些则支持降息。这种不确定性引发市场对高估 值资产的抛压，尤其影响对利率敏感的金融和资产管理板块。板块拖累：当日资产管理板块整体下跌 2.97%，黑石作为龙头股受到波及。同期美股三大指数均收跌（道指跌0.52%，纳指跌0.19%），市场避 险情绪升温。 2月19日的下跌主要受美联储政策不确定性引发的市场抛售驱动，叠加地缘风险及板块整体走弱。黑石 长期基本面稳健，但短期股价对利率敏感 ...

2、美联储对美国通胀的看法。 3、美联储对劳动力市场的讨论情况。 【美联储1月会议纪要关注点】1、美联储对利率路径的讨论情况。 ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin is experiencing a decline as investors remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting minutes [1] - Recent comments from decision-makers indicate a lack of consensus on the timing of the next interest rate cut, leading the market to seek clearer signals [1] - Upcoming U.S. data, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and fourth-quarter economic growth figures, are expected to provide insights into the interest rate trajectory [1] Market Performance - Bitcoin has decreased by 0.2%, reaching a price of $67,537 [1] - Ethereum has also fallen by 0.2%, with its price at $1,984 [1]

2月16日，在经历前一交易日的剧烈抛售后，国际金价于周五展现出强劲的反弹势头。随着地缘局势的 再度升温以及美国最新通胀数据的出炉，市场避险情绪重新占据上风。4月黄金期货亦同步走高，攀升 至5054.15美元/盎司附近。Mhmarkets迈汇认为，尽管市场近期波动剧烈，但黄金在极端不确定性环境 下的对冲属性依然是支撑其价格回升的关键动力。 在贵金属板块整体回暖的背景下，白银在经历此前单日10%的深幅回撤后，周五反弹3.3%至77.73美元/ 盎司，而铂金也重回2000美元大关上方，报2081.95美元/盎司。从基本面来看，中东地区紧张局势的升 级——尤其是关于航母部署及相关谈判停滞的报道，显著推升了市场的安全资产需求。不过， Mhmarkets迈汇认为，劳动力市场的韧性依然为美联储的利率路径增添了迷雾。1月非农就业数据的强 劲表现使美元从周低点反弹，这在一定程度上抑制了贵金属的上行空间。 2月16日，在经历前一交易日的剧烈抛售后，国际金价于周五展现出强劲的反弹势头。随着地缘局势的 再度升温以及美国最新通胀数据的出炉，市场避险情绪重新占据上风。4月黄金期货亦同步走高，攀升 至5054.15美元/盎司附近。Mhma ...

劳工统计局周三公布的数据显示，雇主上个月增聘13万人，失业率也下降至4.3%。与此同时，上一年 数据的修正表明当时招聘大幅放缓。去年月均新增就业者仅1.5万人，远低于最初公布的4.9万。 美国1月新增的非农就业人数创下一年多高纪录，失业率则意外下降，表明劳动力市场在2026年初继续 靠稳。 美联储官员对今年的利率路径仍存在分歧，原因之一就在于他们对劳动力市场状况存在不同看法。上个 月维持利率不变时，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔就曾指出就业市场出现企稳迹象。 报告显示，在经历了失业率上升和招聘人数锐减的一年后，劳动力市场正在逐步恢复稳定。尽管经济学 家普遍预期劳动力市场2026年将继续不振，但随着总统唐纳德·特朗普经济政策的影响趋于明朗以及借 贷成本降低，一些雇主可能会增加员工人数。 数据公布后美国股指期货和国债收益率走高。交易员大幅下调了6月降息25个基点的预期，目前他们认 为今年首次降息将在7月启动。 随着每年1月非农报告的发布，劳工统计局将就业人数基准锚定在更准确但时效性稍差的"就业和薪资季 度普查"系列数据。该数据基于各州失业保险税记录并涵盖了美国大部分就业岗位。 经调整后的数据显示，截至2025年3月的12个月 ...

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading below 29,735, having opened at 31,145 and reported a decrease of 2.43%, with a high of 32,382 and a low of 27,611, indicating a short-term sideways trend in the market [1] - The premium for silver in Shanghai has significantly narrowed to 3,600 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a cooling domestic sentiment, with short-term price increases facing pressure and substantial risks [3] Group 2 - President Trump threatened to impose tariffs of up to 50% on all aircraft exported from Canada to the U.S., raising concerns about renewed tensions in bilateral trade relations [2] - The market is closely monitoring the potential nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, with implications for monetary policy and interest rates, as he has expressed a preference for lower rates while also advocating for a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet [2] - Discussions surrounding the independence of the Federal Reserve are becoming a significant variable affecting the medium-term trajectory of the U.S. dollar [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, silver showed strong performance and reached a new historical high, with London silver breaking through the $100 per ounce mark early on Saturday. Geopolitical risks continue, and market risk - aversion sentiment remains strong, driving up precious - metal prices. The upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chairman may become a short - term market focus. In terms of commodity attributes, the silver market is in a supply - shortage state for the fifth consecutive year, and the continuous inflow of global silver ETFs and the decline in COMEX inventory indicate a long - term strong trend for silver. It is recommended to hold AG2604 long positions in the medium term [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View and Strategy 3.1.1 Weekly View - **Silver Trend**: Last week, silver oscillated at a high level and reached a new historical high on Friday. London silver broke through the $100 per ounce mark early on Saturday, closing at $103.341. Driven by the external market, the main contract of Shanghai silver reached a new high of 25,838 yuan per kilogram. The weekly gains of London silver and Shanghai silver were 14.7% and 11% respectively, and the cumulative gains in 2025 were 148% and 129% respectively [7] - **US Economy**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US in the week of January 17th was 200,000, lower than the expected 209,000. The number of continued jobless claims dropped to 1.85 million last week, lower than the expected 1.89 million, the lowest level since November. The US GDP in the third quarter had a quarter - on - quarter growth of 4.4%, the fastest growth rate in two years [7] - **Inflation**: In November, the overall PCE price index in the US increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. The core PCE price index also increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. The market is focused on the upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, which may affect expectations of the Fed's future interest - rate path [7] - **Interest Rates**: The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond remained the same as the previous week, and the US dollar index weakened continuously last week [7] - **Supply and Demand**: In 2025, the global silver market is expected to have a supply - demand gap of over 100 million ounces, and the market has been in a supply - shortage state for the fifth consecutive year. As of January 23, 2026, the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, SLV, were 16,090 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1%. COMEX inventory declined continuously last week. LBMA inventory dropped to a historical low, and most of the silver is linked to ETFs and cannot be freely circulated, so the available inventory is tight [7] - **Price Difference**: The price difference between domestic and foreign silver futures narrowed last week, closing at 1,845. The gold - silver ratio in London spot market closed below 50, at 48.20 [7] 3.1.2 Strategy - It is recommended to hold AG2604 long positions in the medium term [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the price trends of COMEX silver futures, London silver spot, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver futures, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver through charts [11][15] 3.3 US Economy - The report shows the trends of US GDP, PMI, new non - farm payrolls, and unemployment rate through charts [22][23] 3.4 Inflation - It presents the trends of US CPI/PCE and core CPI/PCE through charts [28][31] 3.5 Interest Rates - It shows the trends of US Treasury bond yields (short - term and medium - long - term) and real interest rates through charts [37][39] 3.6 Fundamentals 3.6.1 Global Silver Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2025, global silver supply is expected to be 1.0306 billion ounces (a 2% year - on - year increase), and demand is expected to be 1.1482 billion ounces (a 1% year - on - year decrease), with a supply - demand gap of 117.6 million ounces (a 21% year - on - year decrease) [43] 3.6.2 Silver Demand - The report presents the trend of silver ETF holdings through a chart [44] 3.6.3 Silver Inventory - It shows the trends of COMEX silver inventory, LBMA silver inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory through charts [47][53] 3.7 US Dollar Index and Exchange Rates - It presents the trends of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, euro against the US dollar, US dollar against the Japanese yen, British pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the Canadian dollar through charts [58][64][66] 3.8 Silver Domestic - Foreign Price Difference - It shows the trends of domestic and foreign silver futures and their price differences through charts [75] 3.9 Silver Basis - It presents the trends of domestic and foreign silver basis through charts [80][85] 3.10 Gold - Silver Ratio - It shows the trends of the gold - silver ratio in SHFE and COMEX through a chart [88]

Group 1: Market Overview - The US stock market saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones rising over 300 points, indicating potential economic recovery or market manipulation [1] - TSMC's ADR increased by over 6%, reaching a market capitalization of over $1.8 trillion, reflecting both technological advantages and capital exuberance in the semiconductor industry [1] - The semiconductor supply chain is under scrutiny, with future performance dependent on orders, capacity, and geopolitical risks [1] Group 2: Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing volatility, with Bitcoin nearing $96,240 and Dogecoin dropping over 4%, highlighting the risks associated with leveraged trading [4] - Over 120,000 individuals faced liquidation in the past 24 hours, indicating a significant risk exposure among younger investors [4] Group 3: Precious Metals and Oil - Precious metals like gold and silver are facing declines, with silver dropping below $91 and gold falling below $4,620, suggesting that safe-haven assets are not immune to market sentiment [3][5] - Oil prices have also plummeted, with WTI and Brent crude both falling over 4%, indicating market reactions to geopolitical events [3] Group 4: Employment and Economic Data - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 198,000, the lowest since November 29 of the previous year, suggesting a stable job market [5] - Despite positive employment data, Federal Reserve officials remain cautious about inflation and the need for continued tightening [5][6] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Strategy - The market is characterized by a preference for certain stocks, with leading technology and semiconductor companies like NVIDIA and Micron seeing significant gains [8] - Investors are advised to maintain a long-term perspective while managing leverage and liquidity, as short-term data can be misleading [9] - The current market environment emphasizes the need for transparency and comparability in data, as well as caution regarding interest rate paths and geopolitical risks [9]

Core Viewpoint - Anna Paulson, President of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, publicly supports Jerome Powell's leadership amid ongoing political pressure and controversy surrounding the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Group 1: Support for Powell - Paulson emphasizes the importance of strong leadership at the Federal Reserve, stating that it benefits the American public [5]. - She aligns with other Federal Reserve officials who have also endorsed Powell's integrity and leadership [5]. - Powell is currently facing a criminal investigation related to a renovation project at the Federal Reserve's Washington headquarters, which Paulson supports him on [3][4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - Paulson indicates a cautious but clear stance on monetary policy, supporting recent interest rate cuts while suggesting that further cuts are not urgent [6]. - She believes the current interest rate level is "sufficiently high" and slightly above the neutral rate, which does not stimulate or suppress economic growth [6]. - Paulson anticipates significant progress in reducing inflation towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target by the end of the year, but is open to supporting small rate cuts later if inflation data continues to show easing [6][7]. Group 3: Labor Market Insights - Paulson expresses concern about the risks in the labor market, noting that 95% of private sector job growth last year was concentrated in healthcare and social assistance, which is not indicative of a healthy economy [8]. - She warns that signs of a rapid deterioration in the labor market would be closely monitored, as historical trends suggest labor market signals often dominate economic indicators [8]. - Paulson observes that companies are now more cautious in their pricing strategies, focusing on maintaining market share rather than aggressively raising prices [8].