地缘政治因素对美元的提振效应有限。尽管美国介入委内瑞拉事务并引发外界对局势升级的担忧，但市场反应相对冷静，美元指数反而小幅回落。这表明短 期内，政治风险尚未转化为系统性避险需求，投资者更倾向于等待更明确的风险信号，而非提前大规模调整仓位。 从市场表现来看，美元指数在短暂反弹后再度走弱，并在亚洲交易时段徘徊于98.50附近，这一走势反映出当前市场对美元的支撑因素并不稳固。 美元通常被视为避险资产，但在近期地缘政治事件的刺激下，其避险属性并未被明显放大，说明投资者的关注重点仍然集中在美国自身的经济基本面和货币 政策前景上。 从数据层面分析，即将公布的美国12月ADP就业人数和ISM非制造业PMI成为市场关注的核心。 这两项指标分别反映就业市场和服务业景气度，是判断美国经济韧性的重要参考。在美联储政策高度依赖数据的背景下，任何超出或低于预期的结果，都可 能迅速影响市场对利率路径的判断，从而直接作用于美元走势。 美联储内部立场分化正在成为压制美元的重要因素。一方面，有官员主张通过大幅降息来支撑经济增长，另一方面，也有声音对就业前景表达谨慎态度，提 醒失业率可能出现突然上行。这种分歧使市场难以形成对未来政策的清晰预期， ...

临近年末，市场交投清淡，全球主要股市进入窄幅盘整阶段，投资者正静待美联储12月货币政策会议纪要。金属市场呈现分化格局，黄金、白 银、铂金、铜、镍等上涨，钯金盘中触及跌停。 12月30日，美股指期货基本持平，欧股指多数下跌，亚股指涨跌互现。美元、美债基本持平，在岸人民币突破7关口。金属分化，白银反弹4%收 复部分失地，现货黄金涨超1%，伦铜涨近3%，钯金触及跌停。原油小幅回调，加密货币小幅上涨。 美联储12月货币政策会议纪要将于北京时间12月31日凌晨3点公布，此次会议纪要将为市场提供关于2026年利率路径的关键指引。在12月10日的议 息会议上，美联储决定降息25个基点，但内部意见呈现分化：两位政策制定者主张维持利率不变，另一位则支持更大幅度的50个基点降息。 根据12月发布的点阵图显示，多数政策制定者预计2026年仅会进行一次25个基点的降息，但个别成员的预测存在显著差异，反映出对经济前景判 断的不确定性。 核心市场走势如下： 道指期货涨0.01%，标普500指数期货涨0.01%，纳指期货跌0.02% 欧洲斯托克50指数开盘跌0.1%，德国DAX指数跌0.1%，英国富时100指数涨0.1%，法国CAC 40 ...

美股市场于当地时间周一（12月29日）迎来2025年最后一周交易，三大股指全线收跌，其中科技股表现 疲软成为主要拖累。截至收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.51%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.50%，标准 普尔500指数下跌0.35%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 盘面上，大型科技股多数走低。特斯拉股价跌幅超过3%，英伟达跌逾1%，微软、亚马逊、Meta等公司 股价也出现小幅下跌。与此形成对比的是，苹果公司股价微幅上涨，英特尔则录得超过1%的涨幅。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：观察君 当日市场的另一个焦点是贵金属板块的剧烈波动。在经历了前期大幅上涨后，白银、黄金等贵金属价格 出现显著回调，并拖累了相关矿业股票。哈莫尼黄金、泛美白银、金罗斯黄金等公司股价跌幅居前。 进入2025年最后一周，市场交易活动整体趋于清淡。尽管年内美股表现强劲，三大指数均有望实现连续 第三年录得两位数百分比涨幅，但部分投资者在年末选择获利了结。据美国芝商所集团公告，其在周一 收盘后全线上调了包括黄金、白银在内的多种金属期货交易的保证金要求。 本周经济数据发布较少，市场关注点集中在美 ...

12月11日，在近期市场调整背景下，FPG财盛国际表示，主要加密资产的走弱与最新的政策信号密切相 关。美联储如预期下调基准利率并启动短期国债购入计划，本应为风险资产提供支撑，但其后续政策路 径的模糊性，让市场情绪迅速由乐观转向谨慎。FPG财盛国际认为，投资者当前更关注未来数季的政策 节奏，而非单一的降息动作。 根据市场数据，BTC在消息公布后跌至9万美元下方，较亚洲早盘下滑约2.4%；Ether跌至约3190美元； 主流加密指数亦回落逾4%。多位市场参与者强调，美联储内部在通胀与就业之间的权衡出现分歧，两 名委员投票支持维持利率不变，而另有六名委员认为当前并不适合降息。另一方面，最新预测仅显示 2026年再进行一次降息，弱于此前两到三次的市场预期。FPG财盛国际认为，这类分歧放大了市场对未 来利率路径的不确定性，使投资者难以判断在未来数季内政策的宽松节奏。与此同时，加密行情也受股 市同步下行影响，BTC第三次尝试突破9.4万美元未果，隐含波动率持续回落，显示交易活动趋向谨 慎。 12月11日，在近期市场调整背景下，FPG财盛国际表示，主要加密资产的走弱与最新的政策信号密切相 关。美联储如预期下调基准利率并启动 ...

这次会议最受关注的焦点是： 美联储会不会调整 2026 年的利率路径。因为只要路径一变，美元、黄金、美股、加密货币的走势，都 可能被彻底改写 在关键会议前，不少交易者也在问： 加息 vs 降息，到底会带来什么影响？ 为了让你在 FOMC 前快速掌握大方向，FPG 将核心逻辑整理成一张最清晰、最好懂的图表 你怎么看？本次利率会： 欢迎在评论区分享你的判断 • 维持不变？ • 在措辞上偏鹰或偏鸽？ • 释放任何有关未来降息路径的线索？ ...

Core Insights - Global markets are currently experiencing a short-term oscillation and a complex interplay of major central bank policies, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a rising probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike [1][2] Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve is set to hold a meeting on December 12-13, while the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision on December 19 [2] - Kristina Hooper from Man Group highlights that the rising yield of Japanese government bonds could increase borrowing costs for governments already facing challenges [2] Group 2: Market Performance - U.S. stock index futures are collectively declining, with the S&P 500 futures down 0.07%, Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.07%, and Dow futures down 0.10% [3][4] - The Japanese 10-year government bond yield fell by 2 basis points to 1.855% following strong auction demand [3][4] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains stable at 4.08% [4] Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the fourth consecutive month in November, with the largest decline in four months due to weak orders [2] - Upcoming economic reports, including the November ADP private sector employment report and the preliminary consumer confidence index for December, are expected to provide further insights into the labor market and inflation [2] Group 4: Commodity and Cryptocurrency Trends - Gold prices fell by 0.6% to $4206.48 per ounce, while silver dropped over 1.2% to $57.27 per ounce [4][9] - Bitcoin rebounded by 0.7% to $87053.6, following a significant sell-off that led to nearly $1 billion in leveraged positions being liquidated [4][13]

Core Viewpoint - The stability of the US dollar is influenced by uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut in December, with recent comments from officials indicating a divide in decision-making [1] Economic Data - Recent US economic data, including the delayed September non-farm payroll report, did not provide clear signals for the interest rate path, showing a higher-than-expected increase in employment but an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate [1] - The complete employment data for October will not be available due to a recent government shutdown, adding to the uncertainty [1] Market Indicators - The DXY dollar index remained flat at 100.192, reflecting the current stability of the dollar amidst the mixed economic signals [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong U.S. non-farm payroll data has significantly reduced the expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, leading to a stronger dollar and downward pressure on gold prices [2][3] Group 1: Market Influences - Strong U.S. non-farm payroll data for September showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, far exceeding the expected 50,000 [2] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has dropped from approximately 45% to around 30%-40% [2] - The global tech stock market crash has triggered risk-averse sentiment, which may support gold prices in the long term [2] Group 2: Key Price Levels - Resistance levels for gold are identified at $4,110 and the $4,130-$4,140 range; a failure to sustain upward momentum near these levels may warrant short positions [2] - A critical support level to watch is $4,020; if gold stabilizes here and shows bullish candlestick patterns, it may present a buying opportunity [3] - If gold breaks below the $4,020 support, it could open up further downside potential, while a strong breakout above $4,140 could lead to additional upward movement, though the current fundamentals do not strongly support this scenario [3] Group 3: Future Monitoring - The Federal Reserve's policy signals are crucial for the gold market; attention should be paid to speeches from Fed officials leading up to the December FOMC meeting, as any hints regarding interest rate paths could cause market fluctuations [4] - Key economic data, including upcoming inflation figures (CPI, PCE) and the combined non-farm employment report for October and November, will be critical in assessing the U.S. economic condition and inflation trends [5] - The ability of gold to maintain the $4,000 psychological and technical support level is essential; a breach could lead to further declines [6]

Core Insights - Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have increased by over 60% due to geopolitical risks, expectations of monetary policy easing, and central bank gold purchases [1] - Recently, gold prices have entered a correction phase, with a significant drop of 3.2% on October 28, falling below $4000 per ounce, marking one of the largest weekly declines in a decade [1] - Analysts suggest that the recent decline in gold prices is a temporary adjustment, as the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has weakened, leading investors to shift towards equities and high-yield assets [1] Market Sentiment - Investors are closely monitoring any comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding future interest rate paths, as gold tends to perform well in low-interest-rate environments [5] - UBS has projected that gold prices could reach $4200 per ounce in the coming months, maintaining a positive outlook on gold's attractiveness, although acknowledging potential short-term corrections [5] - JPMorgan highlights that profit-taking by trend-following funds has led to the recent price correction, with non-retail selling being a dominant factor; they maintain a long-term view that gold prices could double within three years, supported by stock risk hedging and central bank purchases [5]

Core Insights - US stock market continues to rise, driven by mild inflation data, with all three major indices closing higher [1][3] - Weaker-than-expected CPI data alleviates concerns over interest rate paths, stimulating broad risk appetite [1][4] - Focus shifts to corporate earnings sustainability and future Federal Reserve policies [1] Market Drivers - Inflation slightly eases: US Consumer Price Index year-on-year at 3.0%, below the expected 3.1%, boosting hopes for a pause in Federal Reserve actions [4] - Earnings strength: Several large-cap stocks exceeded expectations, providing further support [5] - Oil stability: WTI crude oil remains above $61, maintaining energy optimism without reigniting inflation concerns [6] Volatility and Returns - S&P 500 Index: up +0.79% to 6,791.68 [7] - Dow Jones Index: up +1.01% to 47,207.12 [7] - Nasdaq 100 Index: up +1.04% to 25,358.15 [7] - Russell 2000 Index: up +1.24% to 2,513.47 [7] - VIX down 5.38%, indicating a decrease in risk aversion [8] - 10-year Treasury yield stable at 4.043%, reflecting a balance between stocks and bonds [9] Commodity Insights - WTI crude oil: $61.50 per barrel, stabilizing after earlier sanctions-driven spikes [10] - Gold: $4,137.80 per ounce, supported by weak inflation data and stable dollar [11] - Precious metals remain a focus as investors weigh real interest rate impacts against safe-haven appeal [12] Global Market Overview - FTSE 100 Index: up +0.7% to 9,645.62 [13] - DAX: up +0.13% to 24,239.89 [13] - CAC 40: moderately up to 8,225.63 [13] - European markets reflect Wall Street's optimism, supported by commodity-linked stocks and alleviated inflation concerns [13] Key Stock Movers - Ford: up +11.92% due to strong electric vehicle sales and optimistic guidance [15] - Western Union: up +10.07% driven by strong remittance volumes [16] - Beyond Meat: down -24.65% due to weak Q3 sales and margin pressures [17] - Nektar: down -5.39% as pipeline updates disappointed investors [18] - Packaging Corporation of America: down -4.07% due to cautious industry outlook [19] Upcoming Market Focus - Futures slightly higher, continuing the rebound post-CPI as investors await upcoming corporate earnings [20] - Oil remains a key driver; stable prices support the stock market, but any new increases could reignite inflation concerns [20] - Gold continues to attract inflows amid geopolitical volatility and policy uncertainty [20] Market Sentiment Snapshot - Risk appetite: constructively cautious, moderately optimistic with defensive hedging [21] - VIX: cooling but above complacency levels [22] - Dollar Index (DXY): slightly softened post-CPI; real rates stable [23] - Gold: holding firm in the $4,130-$4,150 range [24] - WTI crude: consolidating above $61; supply dynamics remain key [25] Other Key Areas - Federal Reserve comments: several officials to speak this week; tone may clarify rate path post-CPI [26] - Earnings continuation: large tech stocks' performance may test market sentiment resilience [26] - Liquidity and volatility: month-end fund flows may cause short-term distortions [26] - Commodities: gold-silver ratio remains a focus for momentum signals [26]