来源：滚动播报 美元走势平稳，因美联储是否会在12月再次降息存在不确定性。美联储官员近期的言论显示，决策者对 12月的决定存在分歧。上周的美国数据也未能为利率路径提供任何明确信号。这其中包括推迟公布的9 月份非农就业报告，该报告显示新增就业人数超出预期，但失业率意外上升。此外，这些数据是回顾性 的，而且由于最近的政府停摆，10月份的完整就业数据将不会公布。DXY美元指数持平，报100.192。 ...

第一金杨生，DYJPPLI，香港第一金，第一金官网，第一金平台，第一金代理 对金价影响的主要压力： 后续重点关注： 美联储的政策信号：这是黄金市场的核心驱动力。务必关注12月FOMC会议前各位美联储官员的讲话，任何关于利率路径的暗示都可能引起市场波动。 美国9月非农数据强劲 (新增11.9万，远超预期5万) ，美联储12月降息预期大幅降温 (概率从上周的45%降至约30%-40%) ，美元走强，利空黄金 潜在支撑：全球科技股暴跌引发避险情绪 ，央行购金的长期趋势仍在 ，金价大跌可能刺激实物黄金需求，利多黄金 关键点位与看法 阻力位：关注 4110美元 和 4130-4140美元 区域。如果金价反弹至这些位置附近并出现上涨乏力迹象，可以考虑轻仓试空。 支撑位：重点关注4020美元。若金价在此企稳并出现看涨K线形态，可考虑轻仓博取反弹。 突破策略：如果金价有效跌破4020美元的支撑，短期下跌空间可能会打开，届时可考虑反弹时轻仓跟进空单。反之，若金价强势突破4140美元，则可能引发 进一步的上行，但当前基本面支持这种走势的概率相对较小。 短期来看，黄金预计会继续在4000美元以上的区间内震荡盘整。一方面，4000美 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】自年初以来，受地缘风险、货币政策宽松预期及央行购金等因素推动，黄金价格累计上涨超 过60%。然而，在前期连续创新高后，部分资金选择获利了结，叠加市场风险偏好回升，近期黄金价格进入调整阶 段。 北京时间10月28日凌晨，伦敦现货黄金大跌3.2%，跌破4000美元/盎司。金价下行延续上周的下跌趋势，累计跌幅创十 年来最大单周回调之一。对此有分析人士认为，近期推动金价上涨的避险需求明显减弱，投资者转向股市与高收益资 产。 报道还提到，除了预期的降息，投资者将关注美联储主席鲍威尔关于未来利率路径的任何言论；黄金，作为无收益资 产，倾向于在低利率环境中上涨。 与此同时，多家国际投行也发布了针对黄金价格的最新观点，瑞银近期预计未来几个月黄金价格可以冲到4200美元每 盎司，依然维持黄金具有吸引力的观点，但也指出短期内黄金价格可能会出现回调。 摩根大通则指出，趋势资金获利了结引发金价回调，非散户抛售主导；维持三年内金价或翻倍的判断，长期对冲股票 风险与央行购金是核心支撑。 半岛电视台近日发文称，投资策略公司Fortress Strategies首席执行官穆斯塔法·侯赛因在接受采访时认为，黄金的回调 是 ...

Core Insights - US stock market continues to rise, driven by mild inflation data, with all three major indices closing higher [1][3] - Weaker-than-expected CPI data alleviates concerns over interest rate paths, stimulating broad risk appetite [1][4] - Focus shifts to corporate earnings sustainability and future Federal Reserve policies [1] Market Drivers - Inflation slightly eases: US Consumer Price Index year-on-year at 3.0%, below the expected 3.1%, boosting hopes for a pause in Federal Reserve actions [4] - Earnings strength: Several large-cap stocks exceeded expectations, providing further support [5] - Oil stability: WTI crude oil remains above $61, maintaining energy optimism without reigniting inflation concerns [6] Volatility and Returns - S&P 500 Index: up +0.79% to 6,791.68 [7] - Dow Jones Index: up +1.01% to 47,207.12 [7] - Nasdaq 100 Index: up +1.04% to 25,358.15 [7] - Russell 2000 Index: up +1.24% to 2,513.47 [7] - VIX down 5.38%, indicating a decrease in risk aversion [8] - 10-year Treasury yield stable at 4.043%, reflecting a balance between stocks and bonds [9] Commodity Insights - WTI crude oil: $61.50 per barrel, stabilizing after earlier sanctions-driven spikes [10] - Gold: $4,137.80 per ounce, supported by weak inflation data and stable dollar [11] - Precious metals remain a focus as investors weigh real interest rate impacts against safe-haven appeal [12] Global Market Overview - FTSE 100 Index: up +0.7% to 9,645.62 [13] - DAX: up +0.13% to 24,239.89 [13] - CAC 40: moderately up to 8,225.63 [13] - European markets reflect Wall Street's optimism, supported by commodity-linked stocks and alleviated inflation concerns [13] Key Stock Movers - Ford: up +11.92% due to strong electric vehicle sales and optimistic guidance [15] - Western Union: up +10.07% driven by strong remittance volumes [16] - Beyond Meat: down -24.65% due to weak Q3 sales and margin pressures [17] - Nektar: down -5.39% as pipeline updates disappointed investors [18] - Packaging Corporation of America: down -4.07% due to cautious industry outlook [19] Upcoming Market Focus - Futures slightly higher, continuing the rebound post-CPI as investors await upcoming corporate earnings [20] - Oil remains a key driver; stable prices support the stock market, but any new increases could reignite inflation concerns [20] - Gold continues to attract inflows amid geopolitical volatility and policy uncertainty [20] Market Sentiment Snapshot - Risk appetite: constructively cautious, moderately optimistic with defensive hedging [21] - VIX: cooling but above complacency levels [22] - Dollar Index (DXY): slightly softened post-CPI; real rates stable [23] - Gold: holding firm in the $4,130-$4,150 range [24] - WTI crude: consolidating above $61; supply dynamics remain key [25] Other Key Areas - Federal Reserve comments: several officials to speak this week; tone may clarify rate path post-CPI [26] - Earnings continuation: large tech stocks' performance may test market sentiment resilience [26] - Liquidity and volatility: month-end fund flows may cause short-term distortions [26] - Commodities: gold-silver ratio remains a focus for momentum signals [26]

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market has shown an upward trend, driven by a slight easing in inflation concerns and strong earnings from major companies [3][5][11] Market Drivers - Inflation has slightly slowed, with the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year at 3.0%, below the expected 3.1%, raising hopes that the Federal Reserve may pause its rate hikes [3][11] - Strong earnings from several large-cap stocks have further supported market optimism [3] - WTI crude oil prices remain stable above $61 per barrel, maintaining a positive sentiment in the energy sector without reigniting inflation fears [3][11] Volatility and Yield - The VIX index has decreased by 5.38%, indicating a reduction in risk aversion among investors [4][15] - The 10-year Treasury yield is stable at 4.043%, reflecting a balance between stock and bond liquidity [6] Top Stock Movers - Ford has seen a significant increase of 11.92% due to strong electric vehicle sales and optimistic guidance [8] - Western Union's stock rose by 10.07% driven by robust remittance volumes [9] - Coinbase experienced a 9.57% increase attributed to rising cryptocurrency inflows [10] Commodity Insights - WTI crude oil is priced at $61.50 per barrel, stabilizing after a recent surge driven by sanctions [13] - Gold is trading at $4,137.80 per ounce, supported by weak inflation data and stable dollar conditions [13] Other Key Areas - The Federal Reserve is expected to clarify its interest rate path following recent CPI data, with several officials scheduled to speak this week [16] - Earnings reports from major tech companies may test market sentiment resilience [16] - Month-end liquidity flows could cause short-term distortions in the market [16]

Group 1: Currency and Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs has raised its future yen exchange rate forecast to 150, with long-term interest rate paths expected to support a stronger yen [1] - Dutch Bank noted that escalating trade disputes have heightened risk aversion, leading to increased demand for the yen and Swiss franc [1] - French Agricultural Credit Bank stated that despite negative UK data, the Bank of England's policy path remains unchanged, limiting short-term declines in the pound [1] Group 2: Market Analysis and Predictions - Analysts from Deutsche Bank indicated that the ideal scenario for French government bonds in the next 48 hours would involve budget cuts and pension reform rollbacks, warning of potential political turmoil if the Prime Minister fails to address fiscal challenges [2] - Goldman Sachs significantly raised its target exchange rates for the yen over the next 3, 6, and 12 months, citing potential fiscal risks from stimulus policies [2] - Pantheon Macroeconomics suggested that the Bank of England may lower interest rates in the coming months due to rising unemployment and slowing wage growth [3] Group 3: Employment and Inflation Trends - The ICAEW reported that the UK job market is under pressure from high hiring costs and economic weakness, with a decrease in job vacancies signaling negative trends [3] - Jefferies economists believe that weak employment data supports a dovish stance from the Bank of England, with the market underestimating the likelihood of further rate cuts this year [4] - InvestingLive highlighted that Germany's core inflation rate rose to 2.8% in September, indicating persistent price pressures in the Eurozone's largest economy [4]

Group 1 - The market is currently focused on the Federal Reserve's statements and the September meeting minutes, with significant implications for commodities and RMB assets due to China's financial data and central bank liquidity operations [1][2] - Key upcoming events include speeches from Federal Reserve officials and the release of important economic data, which are expected to drive short-term trading strategies [1][2] - The trading environment is characterized by high volatility and risk, necessitating careful position management and confirmation of market signals before making trading decisions [3][4] Group 2 - Gold prices are expected to be influenced by the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and officials' comments, particularly regarding interest rate paths, which will affect market risk appetite and the USD [1][2] - The performance of the US dollar is primarily driven by the Federal Reserve's statements, while Canadian employment data will directly impact the Canadian dollar [2] - Oil demand expectations are significantly influenced by China's financial data, and the Baker Hughes rig count provides insights into supply-side dynamics [2][3]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs issues a rare acceleration warning, indicating that the U.S. economy is likely to re-accelerate next year rather than experience a soft landing, which could complicate monetary policy by 2026 [2] - The report highlights three key factors contributing to the upward risk for GDP: resilient labor market, fiscal stimulus, and loose financial conditions, with the GDP growth forecast for Q3 raised to an annualized rate of 2.6% [2] - If these favorable conditions materialize, GDP growth could exceed 3.5% in the first half of next year, significantly above the market consensus of 1.8% [2] Group 2 - Two scenarios are presented for trading strategies: Scenario A involves a dovish new chair with slow action on tightening, suggesting long positions in inflation-linked assets and short positions in the dollar [3] - Scenario B anticipates independent rate hikes starting in Q2 2026, recommending steepening the yield curve and investing in financial stocks while shorting long-duration bonds [3] - The report warns that volatility is likely underestimated, with the current MOVE index at 90, well below the historical average of 120, indicating potential for a sell-off in the bond market if data continues to exceed expectations [3] Group 3 - Investors are advised to prepare for tools that benefit from a steepening yield curve and to closely monitor the political dynamics between the White House and the Federal Reserve, as the 2026 interest rate path may hinge on personnel decisions rather than inflation data [4]

当地时间9月26日，美股反弹，主要股指收涨：道指涨0.65%，标普500指数涨0.59%，纳指涨0.44%。美 大型科技股多数上涨，美国科技七巨头指数涨0.46%。美国8月PCE通胀数据基本符合预期，缓解了部分 投资者对通胀韧性的担忧。 此外，据央视新闻报道，美国白宫当地时间9月26日表示，最新针对药品的关税措施不适用于已与美国 达成贸易协定的国家。 通胀企稳符合预期 美股反弹 当地时间周五（9月26日），美国三大股指全线收涨。截至收盘，道指涨0.65%报46247.29点，标普500 指数涨0.59%报6643.7点，纳指涨0.44%报22484.07点。 大型科技股多数上涨，美国科技七巨头指数涨0.46%。个股方面，特斯拉涨超4%，微软涨近1%，亚马 逊涨0.75%，谷歌-C涨0.25%，英伟达涨0.28%，苹果跌0.55%，Meta跌0.69%。 芯片股涨跌不一，费城半导体指数涨0.32%，英特尔涨超4%，应用材料涨超2%。 经济数据方面，当地时间9月26日，美国密歇根大学公布9月份消费者信心指数终值为55.1，低于9月的 初值55.4。 另据美国经济分析局当天公布的数据，美国衡量通胀的指标——个人消费 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [1] Summary by Sections Rate Cut Expectations - Most brokerages believe the rate cut was fully priced in and expect two more cuts within the year [2][3] - Analysts suggest that if the unemployment rate remains stable, continuous rate cuts may not materialize [3] Economic Outlook - Analysts from Citic Securities view the rate cut as a risk management measure, indicating a shift in focus from inflation to employment risks [4] - The dot plot suggests a total of three rate cuts this year, with a neutral long-term rate maintained at around 3% [4] Asset Market Reactions - The dollar is expected to remain weak, while gold's outlook shows divergence among analysts [6] - Citic Securities anticipates that the rate cut will lead to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario for U.S. Treasuries and a positive response in U.S. equities [6] Impact on Chinese Markets - The rate cut is seen as beneficial for Chinese stocks, bonds, and the yuan, with expectations of increased domestic monetary policy space [8] - Analysts suggest that the global liquidity easing will provide additional capital for the Chinese stock market [8]