Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The pattern of platinum being strong and palladium being weak is likely to continue. It is recommended to be cautious and observe the market, and long - term funds can consider buying platinum on dips in batches [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the platinum main contract was 457.75 yuan/gram, down 58.80 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 327.85 yuan/gram, down 46.50 yuan. The platinum main contract's open interest was 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the palladium main contract's open interest was 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2] - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) was 459.83 yuan/gram, down 49.05 yuan; the Yangtze River's average palladium spot price was 349.00 yuan/gram, unchanged. The platinum main contract's basis was 2.08 yuan/gram, up 9.75 yuan; the palladium main contract's basis was 21.15 yuan/gram, up 46.50 yuan [2] - **CFTC Non - commercial Long Positions**: Platinum's CFTC non - commercial long positions were 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; palladium's were 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts [2] 2. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons [2] - **Demand**: The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2] 3. Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 99.51, up 0.28; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.01%, up 0.13%; the VIX volatility index was 26.78, up 2.72 [2] 4. Industry News - The US - Iran situation remains highly tense, oil prices are high, and concerns about re - inflation are rising. The US Federal Reserve maintains interest rates, but the dot - plot raises the core PCE inflation forecast and reduces the expectation of interest rate cuts. The European Central Bank may raise interest rates 2 - 3 times this year. The US is in preliminary consultations for a "peace talk" with Iran [2] 5. Key Events to Watch - March 24: US March S&P Global PMI preliminary value, US February new home sales annualized total, US March Richmond Fed manufacturing index - March 25: US February durable goods orders monthly rate - March 26: US Q4 2025 real GDP annualized quarterly rate final value, US initial jobless claims for the week ending March 21 - March 27: US February core PCE price index annual/ monthly rate, US February personal spending monthly rate, US March University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the platinum and palladium markets significantly declined due to macro - expectations changes, with the overall precious metals sector under strong pressure. The platinum - strong and palladium - weak pattern is likely to continue. In the short - term, the prices of platinum and palladium will continue to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct light - position range trading [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - This week, the macro - expectations changed frequently. The platinum and palladium markets declined significantly. The high - tension situation in the US - Iran conflict, high oil prices, and rising inflation concerns led to a strong US dollar and US Treasury yields, suppressing the precious metals sector. Although there were short - term stabilizations, the overall prices of platinum and palladium dropped. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply of platinum is inelastic, and the inventory is decreasing, with strong support at the bottom. The medium - term demand for palladium is weakening [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Contract Prices**: As of March 20, 2026, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's palladium main contract 2606 was at 368.85 yuan/gram, down 9.62% week - on - week; the platinum main contract 2606 was at 509.75 yuan/gram, down 5.88% week - on - week [12]. - **Net Positions in NYMEX**: As of March 10, 2026 (latest), NYMEX platinum long - net positions were 20,916 contracts, up 3.19% month - on - month; NYMEX palladium long - net positions were - 1,407 contracts, up 13.73% month - on - month, continuing the net outflow trend [15]. - **Basis Situation**: As of March 19, 2026, the NYMEX platinum basis was 25 US dollars/ounce (last week: 57), weakening month - on - month; the NYMEX palladium basis was 82 US dollars/ounce (last week: 76.5), strengthening month - on - month. The basis of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum and palladium main contracts strengthened [20][23]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of March 19, 2026, NYMEX platinum inventory was 579,273.64 ounces, down 0.54% month - on - month; NYMEX palladium inventory was 245,176.82 ounces, up 22.15% month - on - month [27]. - **Price Ratio**: As of March 19, 2026, the gold - platinum ratio was 2.44 (last week: 2.41), rising slightly month - on - month; the rolling correlation between NYMEX platinum and gold strengthened [32]. - **Domestic and Foreign Price Differences**: As of March 19, 2026, the domestic - foreign price difference of platinum was 99.05 US dollars/ounce, falling week - on - week; the domestic - foreign price difference of palladium was 52.38 US dollars/ounce, rising week - on - week [59]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand - **Import and Export**: As of February 2026, platinum import volume was 4,437,146 grams, down 6.11% month - on - month; export volume was 371,067 grams, down 72.15% month - on - month. Palladium import volume was 1,525,418 grams, up 51.77% month - on - month; export volume was 2,288 grams, up 25.94% month - on - month [38]. - **Demand**: The demand for platinum and palladium in automobile exhaust catalysts is declining year by year. The core consumption of platinum and palladium is still concentrated in automobile exhaust catalysts, but the trends are significantly different. The global palladium consumption in automobile catalysts accounts for 83%, and the annual industrial consumption decreased by 6% year - on - year. For platinum, automobile catalysts account for 44%, and the annual industrial consumption decreased by 3% year - on - year. The total global demand for platinum and palladium is gradually slowing down [40][42][47]. - **Supply**: In 2025, the global platinum mine supply decreased by 4% year - on - year, and is expected to only slightly increase in 2026. The recycling supply increased. The global palladium mine production is expected to decline significantly in 2025, mainly due to the impact of the main production areas in Russia and South Africa [53]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - As of March 19, 2026, the US dollar index was 99.23, up 0.30% week - on - week; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.86%, up 0.50% week - on - week [64].

Group 1 - The core expectation of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is deeply contested, with a significant divide between institutional and market predictions regarding interest rate cuts in 2026 [1][3][5] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the Fed is expected to cut rates by only 25 basis points in 2026, contrasting sharply with the market's expectation of approximately 50 basis points [3][4] - The divergence in expectations stems from differing assessments of the U.S. economic fundamentals and inflation trends, with some institutions predicting a more cautious approach to rate cuts due to persistent inflation pressures [4][6] Group 2 - The latest dot plot from the Fed reveals a split among decision-makers, with 7 officials advocating for maintaining the current rate and 8 supporting at least two rate cuts within the year, marking the highest level of internal division in nearly six years [5][6] - The internal factions within the Fed include a pause faction, a dovish rate-cutting faction, and a potential rate-hiking faction, indicating a complex and fragmented policy landscape [6][7] - This fragmentation has led to increased uncertainty in market pricing, with analysts suggesting that the era of relying on Fed guidance for market direction is over [6][7] Group 3 - The divergence in Fed policy expectations is causing a reconfiguration of global asset pricing, affecting various markets including currencies, bonds, and equities [7][8] - The U.S. dollar index is experiencing volatility, reflecting the conflicting signals from the Fed regarding interest rate cuts, while U.S. Treasury yields are showing greater fluctuations in the short term compared to the long term [8][9] - Sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as real estate and technology, are particularly impacted by these expectations, with investment strategies needing to adapt to the changing landscape [8][10] Group 4 - Investors are advised to avoid unilateral bets on rate cuts and instead focus on tracking core economic data such as inflation and employment to inform their investment strategies [10][11] - Emphasis is placed on identifying structural opportunities in interest rate-sensitive sectors, with recommendations for diversifying investments across various asset classes to mitigate risks [11][12] - The current market environment necessitates a disciplined approach to portfolio management, with a focus on maintaining balance and avoiding excessive leverage [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - Blackstone Group's stock experienced a significant decline of 6.14% on February 19, 2026, closing at $124.74, reversing the previous day's upward trend [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On February 19, 2026, Blackstone's stock price fell by 6.14%, with a closing price of $124.74 and a trading volume of approximately 2.87 million shares, amounting to $364 million in transaction value [1]. - The stock's performance on February 18, 2026, showed a gain of 1.25%, closing at $132.90, indicating a reversal in the short-term upward trend [1]. - The stock exhibited a trading range of 4.37% during the day, with a volume ratio of 1.36, suggesting active trading [1]. Group 2: Market Influences - The decline in Blackstone's stock was influenced by significant policy divergence within the Federal Reserve, as revealed in the January meeting minutes, leading to market pressure on high-valuation assets [2]. - The asset management sector overall dropped by 2.97% on the same day, impacting Blackstone as a leading stock in the sector [1][2]. - Concurrently, major U.S. stock indices also closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.52% and the Nasdaq down 0.19%, reflecting increased market risk aversion [1]. Group 3: Company Fundamentals - Geopolitical risks, particularly tensions in the Middle East, have raised oil prices and heightened inflation concerns, potentially putting valuation pressure on Blackstone's asset allocations in real estate and energy [2]. - Blackstone's trailing twelve months (TTM) price-to-earnings ratio stands at 32.23, above the industry average, making it more susceptible to capital outflows amid fluctuating interest rate expectations [2]. - Year-to-date, Blackstone's stock has declined by 18.14%, reflecting market concerns over slowing earnings growth, with a reported net profit growth of 8.74% for fiscal year 2025, which fell short of some expectations [2].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's discussion on the interest rate path [1] - The Federal Reserve's perspective on U.S. inflation [1] - The Federal Reserve's discussion regarding the labor market [1]

Core Insights - Bitcoin is experiencing a decline as investors remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting minutes [1] - Recent comments from decision-makers indicate a lack of consensus on the timing of the next interest rate cut, leading the market to seek clearer signals [1] - Upcoming U.S. data, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and fourth-quarter economic growth figures, are expected to provide insights into the interest rate trajectory [1] Market Performance - Bitcoin has decreased by 0.2%, reaching a price of $67,537 [1] - Ethereum has also fallen by 0.2%, with its price at $1,984 [1]

Group 1 - International gold prices showed a strong rebound on February 16, following a significant sell-off the previous trading day, driven by renewed geopolitical tensions and the release of the latest U.S. inflation data, which reignited market risk aversion [1][3] - April gold futures rose to approximately $5054.15 per ounce, with the hedge properties of gold in extreme uncertainty environments being a key driver for its price recovery [1][3] - Silver rebounded by 3.3% to $77.73 per ounce after a previous single-day drop of 10%, while platinum also surpassed the $2000 mark, reaching $2081.95 per ounce [1][3] Group 2 - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January increased by 2.4% year-on-year, a slowdown from December's 2.7% and below the market expectation of 2.5%. Core CPI rose by 2.5% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations [2][4] - Despite the moderate decline in inflation data, it has not fundamentally altered the Federal Reserve's current policy narrative, as the resilience of the labor market adds uncertainty to the Fed's interest rate path [2][4] - The precious metals market has entered a phase of intense bullish and bearish competition since late January, with gold expected to record weekly gains, while silver may face its third consecutive week of decline [2][4]

Core Insights - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 130,000 jobs in January, marking the highest increase in over a year, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3%, indicating stability in the labor market at the beginning of 2026 [1][3] - The previous year's data was revised significantly, showing an average monthly job addition of only 15,000, down from the initially reported 49,000 [1][3] - Economists generally expect the labor market to remain weak in 2026, but some employers may increase hiring due to clearer impacts of President Trump's economic policies and lower borrowing costs [1][3] Labor Market Data - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the labor market is gradually stabilizing after a year of rising unemployment and sharp declines in hiring [1][3] - The adjusted data indicates that nearly 900,000 jobs were reduced from the initially reported figures for the 12 months ending March 2025, aligning with preliminary forecasts [2][4] Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - There are differing views among Federal Reserve officials regarding the labor market's condition, which contributes to uncertainty about the interest rate path for the year [1][3] - Following the data release, U.S. stock index futures and Treasury yields rose, with traders significantly lowering expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in June, now anticipating the first cut in July [1][3] Employment Data Methodology - The annual non-farm report allows the Bureau of Labor Statistics to anchor employment numbers to more accurate but less timely "Employment and Wage Quarterly Census" data, which is based on state unemployment insurance tax records [4]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading below 29,735, having opened at 31,145 and reported a decrease of 2.43%, with a high of 32,382 and a low of 27,611, indicating a short-term sideways trend in the market [1] - The premium for silver in Shanghai has significantly narrowed to 3,600 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a cooling domestic sentiment, with short-term price increases facing pressure and substantial risks [3] Group 2 - President Trump threatened to impose tariffs of up to 50% on all aircraft exported from Canada to the U.S., raising concerns about renewed tensions in bilateral trade relations [2] - The market is closely monitoring the potential nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, with implications for monetary policy and interest rates, as he has expressed a preference for lower rates while also advocating for a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet [2] - Discussions surrounding the independence of the Federal Reserve are becoming a significant variable affecting the medium-term trajectory of the U.S. dollar [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, silver showed strong performance and reached a new historical high, with London silver breaking through the $100 per ounce mark early on Saturday. Geopolitical risks continue, and market risk - aversion sentiment remains strong, driving up precious - metal prices. The upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chairman may become a short - term market focus. In terms of commodity attributes, the silver market is in a supply - shortage state for the fifth consecutive year, and the continuous inflow of global silver ETFs and the decline in COMEX inventory indicate a long - term strong trend for silver. It is recommended to hold AG2604 long positions in the medium term [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View and Strategy 3.1.1 Weekly View - **Silver Trend**: Last week, silver oscillated at a high level and reached a new historical high on Friday. London silver broke through the $100 per ounce mark early on Saturday, closing at $103.341. Driven by the external market, the main contract of Shanghai silver reached a new high of 25,838 yuan per kilogram. The weekly gains of London silver and Shanghai silver were 14.7% and 11% respectively, and the cumulative gains in 2025 were 148% and 129% respectively [7] - **US Economy**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US in the week of January 17th was 200,000, lower than the expected 209,000. The number of continued jobless claims dropped to 1.85 million last week, lower than the expected 1.89 million, the lowest level since November. The US GDP in the third quarter had a quarter - on - quarter growth of 4.4%, the fastest growth rate in two years [7] - **Inflation**: In November, the overall PCE price index in the US increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. The core PCE price index also increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. The market is focused on the upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, which may affect expectations of the Fed's future interest - rate path [7] - **Interest Rates**: The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond remained the same as the previous week, and the US dollar index weakened continuously last week [7] - **Supply and Demand**: In 2025, the global silver market is expected to have a supply - demand gap of over 100 million ounces, and the market has been in a supply - shortage state for the fifth consecutive year. As of January 23, 2026, the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, SLV, were 16,090 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1%. COMEX inventory declined continuously last week. LBMA inventory dropped to a historical low, and most of the silver is linked to ETFs and cannot be freely circulated, so the available inventory is tight [7] - **Price Difference**: The price difference between domestic and foreign silver futures narrowed last week, closing at 1,845. The gold - silver ratio in London spot market closed below 50, at 48.20 [7] 3.1.2 Strategy - It is recommended to hold AG2604 long positions in the medium term [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the price trends of COMEX silver futures, London silver spot, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver futures, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver through charts [11][15] 3.3 US Economy - The report shows the trends of US GDP, PMI, new non - farm payrolls, and unemployment rate through charts [22][23] 3.4 Inflation - It presents the trends of US CPI/PCE and core CPI/PCE through charts [28][31] 3.5 Interest Rates - It shows the trends of US Treasury bond yields (short - term and medium - long - term) and real interest rates through charts [37][39] 3.6 Fundamentals 3.6.1 Global Silver Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2025, global silver supply is expected to be 1.0306 billion ounces (a 2% year - on - year increase), and demand is expected to be 1.1482 billion ounces (a 1% year - on - year decrease), with a supply - demand gap of 117.6 million ounces (a 21% year - on - year decrease) [43] 3.6.2 Silver Demand - The report presents the trend of silver ETF holdings through a chart [44] 3.6.3 Silver Inventory - It shows the trends of COMEX silver inventory, LBMA silver inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory through charts [47][53] 3.7 US Dollar Index and Exchange Rates - It presents the trends of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, euro against the US dollar, US dollar against the Japanese yen, British pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the Canadian dollar through charts [58][64][66] 3.8 Silver Domestic - Foreign Price Difference - It shows the trends of domestic and foreign silver futures and their price differences through charts [75] 3.9 Silver Basis - It presents the trends of domestic and foreign silver basis through charts [80][85] 3.10 Gold - Silver Ratio - It shows the trends of the gold - silver ratio in SHFE and COMEX through a chart [88]