美联储穆萨莱姆：关注的是整个利率路径，而非单次会议的利率决策。 来源：滚动播报 ...

格隆汇8月22日｜美股周五料将高开，此前市场连续数日下跌，投资者正等待鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔研讨 会上的讲话，以获取利率路径的线索。美国环球投资首席交易员Michael Matousek表示，鲍威尔将采 取"谨慎的方式"："关税的影响才刚刚显现，所以他仍会强调谨慎，表示要观察数据，看情况如何发 展，因为直到夏季初，关税效应才开始体现出来。"多位美联储官员周四也显得对下月降息的想法不太 积极。本周早些时候公布的大型零售商沃尔玛等财报表现喜忧参半。在此背景下，三大股指本周均将收 跌，标普500指数和纳指有望录得本月最差单周表现。 ...

本周，全球金融市场的目光聚焦于美国怀俄明州的杰克逊霍尔——美联储年度经济政策研讨会将在此举行，市场期待从中获取 关于未来利率路径的重要信号。 根据议程安排，美联储主席鲍威尔将于北京时间周五（8月22日）晚间10点发表主题演讲。投资者普遍预期，他将就美联储后续 货币政策取向及其独立性等关键议题传递信息。 目前市场对降息预期持续升温。联邦基金利率期货定价显示，交易员预计美联储在9月会议上降息25个基点的概率已超过92%， 并且多数观点认为年内还将迎来至少一次降息。 但也正因如此，一旦鲍威尔在讲话中释放与市场预期相左的信号，可能引发显著波动。Slimmon表示，住宅建筑类股的强势反弹 本身就体现出市场已高度确信降息在即，若鲍威尔传递相反信息，"市场将更容易遭遇抛售压力"。 摩根士丹利在最新研究报告中提出，不同于市场期待的"降息绿灯"，本次杰克逊霍尔会议更可能成为美联储反击过度宽松预期 的舞台，鲍威尔或作出偏"鹰派"的表态。 该行分析称，美联储目前的政策核心在于"保留选择权"——尤其是在八月全面就业与通胀数据发布之前，央行不希望被市场预 期"捆绑手脚"。报告强调："如果美联储放任市场以近乎确定的姿态为降息定价，那么到 ...

欧洲央行：未对特定利率路径作出预先承诺。 ...

本轮反弹也受到美国API原油库存数据的提振。据市场调查显示，美国石油协会（API）最新数据显示，截至7月12日当周，原油库存意外减少360万桶，远 优于市场预期的增加150万桶，表明美国原油需求仍然强劲。从日线图走势来看，美原油在66美元附近构筑双底结构后反弹，当前价格站稳20日均线，并突 破短期下降趋势线，MACD指标显示动能柱由负转正，短线动能增强。 若后续突破70美元阻力位，则有望进一步测试72.5美元区域；反之，若跌破66美元，或将回测64美元支撑区域。 今天，我们已经在3326-3324的范畴内测试一次多，亚盘走跌欧盘持续，美盘前才可以空，暂时在3320上方我拒绝空，上方关注目标在3340-3345-3348一线。 接下来再说一下原油： 市场目前聚焦周三晚间即将公布的美国PPI数据，作为通胀走势的前瞻指标，其表现将直接影响黄金下一步走势。此外，美联储多位票委的讲话也将影响市 场对利率路径的判断。 从4小时图来看，金价周二在回落至100周期SMA（约3320美元）附近获得支撑，止住自三周高点回撤的跌势。短期内，如能站稳3342-3343阻力带上方，或 将再度测试3365-3366区域，进一步目标位为3 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2) Core Viewpoints - The market is concerned about the potential impact of Trump's tariff policy on inflation. Although the current US inflation level remains low due to relatively low energy prices and weak domestic consumer confidence, the situation will become more variable if the tariff factor continues to affect the market in the future. Additionally, while there are differences among Fed officials regarding the future interest rate path, a rate cut is still a high-probability event. Therefore, it is recommended to mainly buy gold on dips for hedging [8]. - The current silver price is strong, and the gold-silver ratio has been repaired. There is also a spill - over effect on the Comex silver price after Trump's claim to impose additional tariffs on copper. For now, it is also recommended to buy silver on dips for hedging [9]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Tariff Policy - Trump said that if Russia fails to reach an agreement on the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 50 days, a 100% secondary tariff will be imposed on Russia, and secondary sanctions will also be imposed on countries that buy Russian oil. Brazil will announce a reciprocal countermeasure decree against US tariffs, and the EU is preparing to impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion worth of US goods. After Trump's latest trade tax threat, the European Central Bank will discuss a more negative situation next week than expected in June [1] Futures Market - On July 14, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 777.62 yuan/gram and closed at 781.40 yuan/gram, a change of 1.01% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 778.04 yuan/gram, down 0.05% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,118.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,207.00 yuan/kg, a change of 1.85% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,093,005 lots, and the open interest was 448,095 lots. The night - session closed at 9,167 yuan/kg, down 0.11% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yields - On July 14, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.43%, a change of 0.08% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries was 0.53%, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2508 contract, the long position changed by - 3,450 lots and the short position changed by - 1,439 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 330,985 lots, a change of 9.26% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long position changed by 1,147 lots and the short position changed by - 4,863 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,568,465 lots, a change of 141.85% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 947.64 tons compared to the previous day, and the silver ETF holdings remained unchanged at 14,966.24 tons compared to the previous day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage - On July 14, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was - 3.01 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was - 1,003.49 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 84.87, a change of - 1.31% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 88.96, a change of - 1.54% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On July 14, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 38,158 kg, a change of 24.01% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,017,134 kg, a change of 94.55% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 7,968 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 56,610 kg [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Bank of England should disclose the interest rate path of policymakers to enhance transparency in monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The suggestion aims to provide clearer guidance to markets and the public regarding future interest rate decisions [1] - This approach could potentially improve the effectiveness of monetary policy by aligning expectations with actual policy actions [1] - The call for transparency reflects a broader trend among central banks to communicate more openly about their policy frameworks [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. ADP employment report for June unexpectedly showed a loss of 33,000 jobs, challenging the narrative of a robust labor market [1] - The government announced plans to cut nearly 290,000 federal positions this year, adding pressure to an already tight labor market [1] - Job search activity for positions such as policy analysts has surged tenfold year-over-year, indicating increased competition among job seekers [1] Group 2 - The shift of stable government employees to the private sector may dilute already slowing hiring demand, potentially leading to downward pressure on wages for knowledge-based positions [3] - If public sector wages, seen as a stabilizing factor, decline, it could negatively impact mortgage payments and durable goods orders, affecting consumer spending [3] - The bond market reacted with the ten-year yield dropping below 4.1%, indicating a flight to safety, while consumer staples and utilities showed slight gains amidst pressure on banks, construction, and small tech stocks [3] Group 3 - A true turning point in the labor market may require three signals: consecutive negative private sector job additions, a reduction in average hours worked, and initial jobless claims surpassing post-pandemic highs [3] - If these conditions are met, the anticipated "soft landing" for the economy could shift to a "hard reality" [3] - In the interim, a prudent strategy involves reducing concentrated bets, using high-dividend assets to hedge against volatility, and adjusting positions based on rolling data [3]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is in a stable position but should not become complacent, as there are concerns about inflation remaining below target for an extended period [1] Group 1: Inflation Concerns - The ECB cannot tolerate prolonged low inflation affecting market expectations [1] - There is no commitment to follow a specific interest rate path, indicating flexibility in monetary policy [1] - Inflation risks are characterized by both upward and downward pressures [1] Group 2: Currency and Economic Position - The appreciation of the euro aids the ECB in achieving its 2% inflation target [1] - The euro has the potential to enhance its international standing [1] - Exchange rates are not a target for policy adjustment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, stated that there will be no commitment to future interest rate paths, indicating that data will reveal the answers [1] Group 1 - The European Central Bank is currently assessing economic data to guide its future interest rate decisions [1] - Lagarde's comments suggest a flexible approach to monetary policy, emphasizing data dependency rather than predetermined paths [1]