Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Shanghai Composite Index has returned to the 3500-point level, which is considered relatively high but not overly concerning. Historical data shows that the index has crossed this level multiple times, indicating that fluctuations around this point are common [5][8]. - The article discusses the historical context of the Shanghai Composite Index crossing 3500 points, noting that it has done so 23 times in the past 20 years, with approximately 12.18% of that time spent above this level. This suggests that reaching 3500 points can signal the beginning of a new market phase rather than an immediate peak [5][8]. - Institutional perspectives on the market's future direction are characterized by a consensus of "optimism tempered with caution," with various institutions providing insights into potential market movements [10][12]. Group 2 - Key factors influencing the current market include dual drivers of policy and capital. Since 2025, the central bank has implemented measures to release significant liquidity, maintaining a loose monetary policy that supports market activity [15]. - The article highlights the continuous inflow of incremental capital into the market, particularly from insurance funds and foreign investments, which reflects a positive outlook on the A-share market [17]. - Expectations for mid-year earnings reports are improving, with signs of stabilization in the economic fundamentals and significant profit recovery in mid- to downstream industries, providing essential support for the market [19]. Group 3 - For ordinary investors, the article emphasizes the importance of avoiding emotional reactions to market fluctuations and suggests strategies for asset allocation, including diversification across different asset classes and markets [21]. - It recommends a core-satellite investment strategy, where a significant portion of the portfolio is allocated to broad index funds while a smaller portion is invested in thematic funds to capture structural market opportunities [21]. - The article also advocates for a systematic investment approach, such as dollar-cost averaging in equity funds, to mitigate timing pressures and capitalize on market corrections [22].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3500 points for the first time in over three years, driven by positive fundamentals and market sentiment [3][4][7]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index reached 3509.68 points on July 10, marking a 0.48% increase, and continued to rise to 3519.54 points by July 14, with significant trading volumes recorded [3][4]. - The trading volume in the A-share market has increased significantly, with daily volumes reaching 1.71 trillion yuan, the highest in nearly four months [3][4]. - Key sectors such as banking, AI, and photovoltaic have shown remarkable performance, with the photovoltaic glass sector rising by 11.29% since the beginning of July [3][4]. Key Themes - The two main themes currently influencing the A-share market are mid-year performance reports and the "anti-involution" policy [6][7]. - Over 600 A-share companies have reported positive earnings forecasts, accounting for more than 40% of the total disclosures [7]. - The "anti-involution" theme is expected to drive a potential V-shaped recovery in company earnings, with analysts suggesting that the market may soon shift its focus from sentiment to fundamentals [8][9]. Investment Strategy - Analysts recommend focusing on companies with strong mid-year performance reports and those positioned to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies [7][8]. - The market is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with analysts indicating that any short-term adjustments could present good buying opportunities [5][7].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of companies in the AI and cloud computing sectors, particularly those linked to Nvidia's supply chain, is significantly influenced by their earnings reports, with New Yisheng and Zhongji Xuchuang showing strong profit growth, while Tianfu Communication lacks performance support and has seen a decline in stock price [3][7]. Group 1: Company Performance - New Yisheng's net profit for the first half of the year is expected to be between 3.7 billion to 4.2 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 327.68% to 385.47% [7][8]. - Zhongji Xuchuang's second-quarter net profit is projected to be between 2.017 billion to 2.817 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 50% to 109% [7][8]. - The earnings reports of other companies within the cloud computing ETF also show significant increases, with Qianfang Technology and Hengsheng Electronics expecting net profit growth of 1534.65% and 740.95% respectively [7][8]. Group 2: Market Trends - The cloud computing ETF (159890) has seen a rise of 0.94% with a trading volume exceeding 40 million yuan, indicating strong market interest [5]. - The ETF's technical indicators show an upward trend across multiple moving averages, suggesting a potential for a significant rebound [5]. - The overall market sentiment is driven by the release of second-quarter earnings and Nvidia's AI chip supply, creating substantial investment opportunities [9].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 3500-point mark, driven by positive fundamentals and market sentiment, although a short-term correction is anticipated [1][2][10]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index reached 3509.68 points on July 10, marking its first time above 3500 since January 2022, with significant contributions from banking stocks [6][7]. - The index continued to rise over the following days, reaching a peak of 3555.22 points, with trading volumes increasing significantly, indicating strong market participation [7][10]. - On July 15, the index experienced a slight decline, falling below the 3500-point threshold, with a total trading volume of 1.61 trillion yuan, an increase of 153.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1][4]. Key Themes - The two main themes currently influencing the A-share market are mid-year performance reports and the "anti-involution" policy [3][13]. - Analysts suggest focusing on companies' mid-year performance and sectors that may benefit from the "anti-involution" backdrop, which could lead to a potential recovery in profitability [3][14]. Sector Performance - The solar glass sector has shown remarkable performance, with a cumulative increase of 11.29% since the beginning of July, leading among popular concept sectors [8]. - AI-related stocks have also surged, with significant gains observed in AI hardware and application companies, indicating a strong market interest in technology sectors [9][10]. Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the market's upward momentum is likely to continue, supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions and a shift in market sentiment towards a bullish outlook [10][11]. - The "anti-involution" theme is expected to play a crucial role in shaping future profitability for listed companies, with potential for a V-shaped recovery in certain industries [19][20].

Group 1 - Midea's European IT business system has successfully migrated to Tencent Cloud, enhancing system stability and scalability through cloud-native technology [1] - Morgan Stanley upgraded the rating of the Greater China semiconductor industry from "in line with the market" to "attractive," citing strong AI demand and the potential for valuations to catch up with U.S. peers [1] - CITIC Securities indicated that the A-share market continues to rise, with systemic risks remaining low, and suggested focusing on mid-year reports and the "anti-involution" theme [1] Group 2 - Hong Kong's tech sector is expected to become more sensitive to industry catalysts, with a focus on leading companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and Meituan, which have significant advantages in platform traffic and AI application scenarios [2][9] - The instant retail industry is evolving rapidly, with major platforms like Taobao, Meituan, and JD.com driving order growth through substantial subsidies, indicating a strategic shift towards comprehensive instant retail [2] - AI applications are proliferating in the Hong Kong tech sector, with companies like Kuaishou and WeChat making significant advancements in AI-generated content, enhancing production efficiency and user interaction [3][4] Group 3 - The gaming sector is showing strong performance, with major companies launching successful new titles, contributing to overall industry growth and enhancing the competitive edge of platforms in AI and global distribution [5] - The Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH) has seen a 0.51% increase, with notable gains from companies like NIO and Kuaishou, reflecting positive market sentiment [8] - The Hang Seng Tech Index ETF has experienced significant inflows, with a recent net inflow of 576.81 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest [9] Group 4 - The Hang Seng Tech Index ETF has a low price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5, suggesting it is undervalued compared to historical levels, which may present investment opportunities [10] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Hang Seng Tech Index account for 69.86% of the index, highlighting the concentration of investment in leading tech companies [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since June, the market has gradually changed from a stock market to an incremental market, and the index is likely to continue to rise [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties showed a general upward trend, with CSI 500 and CSI 1000 performing relatively strongly. The basis of the four stock index futures varieties remained in the futures discount mode. The basis of the main contracts of stock index futures, IH closed at -5.17, IF at -21.41, IC at -4.08, and IM at -141.3 [3] - The A-share market continued to break through and rise last week. Although there was a phenomenon of rising and then falling back on Friday, the trading volume remained at a relatively high level. Most industries achieved growth, and the financial sector contributed significantly to the market's rise, showing signs of accelerated capital inflow [3] Comprehensive Analysis - Looking ahead to next week, the market has changed from a stock market to an incremental market since June, but some sectors have entered a high-level shock stage. The manufacturing sector at a low level is expected to be promoted by incremental funds [4] - The policy level attaches more importance to market stability, the market expectation is less sensitive to the impact of the trade war, and the focus on industry prosperity during the interim report season has increased. The trading volume remains at a high level, the scope of industry rise has expanded, and the index is likely to break through the previous high [5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery this week, driven by increased risk appetite and positive market sentiment, with the ChiNext index experiencing the largest gains among major indices [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market has rebounded this week, influenced by rising policy expectations and improved market sentiment, with most major indices showing upward trends [3]. - The ChiNext index recorded the highest increase among major indices this week [3]. - Sector performance varied, with real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors performing relatively well [3]. Group 2: Industry Earnings Outlook - The upcoming earnings season is expected to favor industries with strong mid-year performance, as these sectors typically see better stock price movements in July and August [4]. - Historical data indicates that industries with strong earnings in July and August have a higher probability of achieving excess returns [4]. - The manufacturing sector is predicted to have the highest earnings growth, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 10.0%, followed by TMT and financial real estate sectors [4]. - The TMT sector is expected to show the most significant improvement, with a projected year-on-year growth increase of 5.8 percentage points [4]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Earnings Predictions - High predicted net profit growth rates are expected in the light industry, non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, electronics, and social services sectors [5]. - In contrast, sectors such as steel, real estate, coal, oil and petrochemicals, and public utilities may face profit growth pressures [5]. - The construction materials, electronics, communications, retail, and computer sectors are anticipated to show significant improvement compared to the first quarter [5]. - The overall pre-announcement rate for A-share earnings is currently at 72%, with high pre-announcement rates in real estate, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and environmental protection sectors [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The market is expected to trend upwards in the second half of the year, potentially reaching new highs, with a shift from policy-driven to fundamentals and liquidity-driven market dynamics [6]. - Short-term focus should be on sectors with favorable mid-year earnings, while long-term attention should be on three main lines: domestic consumption, technological self-reliance, and dividend stocks [6]. - In the domestic consumption sector, attention should be given to subsidy-related and offline service consumption [6]. - The technology sector should focus on AI, robotics, semiconductor supply chains, national defense, and low-altitude economy [6].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a strong rally for the third consecutive week, with an average daily trading volume approaching 1.5 trillion yuan, and the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3500 points in the latter half of the week [2] - Over 4000 stocks in the market recorded gains, with major indices showing positive performance across the board [2] Index Performance - The performance of various indices for the week and year-to-date is as follows: - Wind Micro Index: +299% (YTD: +47.99%) - CSI 1000: +2.36% (YTD: +8.45%) - ChiNext Index: +2.36% (YTD: +3.06%) - CSI 2000: +2.32% (YTD: +16.82%) - CSI 500: +1.96% (YTD: +5.26%) - Shenzhen Component Index: +1.78% (YTD: +2.70%) - Shanghai Composite Index: +1.09% (YTD: +4.73%) [3] Market Dynamics - The core driving force behind the index's upward movement is primarily attributed to the banking sector, supported by insurance, securities, diversified finance, and real estate sectors [6] - On the last trading day, the banking sector saw a significant pullback after reaching new highs, which resulted in the Shanghai Composite Index recording a long upper shadow [6] Future Market Predictions - If the banking sector stabilizes quickly, it will positively impact the index's strength; however, if it requires time to confirm support, the index may experience consolidation [7] - The recent bullish trend is not solely driven by the banking sector, as both large and small-cap stocks have contributed to the overall market uplift [9] Sector Insights - The insurance sector is expected to see a significant influx of funds due to the implementation of a long-term assessment mechanism, potentially bringing in trillions of yuan into the A-share market [11] - The industrial sector is focusing on the integration of artificial intelligence and manufacturing, with government support for key applications [11] Upcoming Data Releases - Key economic data will be released next week, including import and export statistics, financial statistics, and national economic performance for the first half of 2025 [17][19] - The National Bureau of Statistics will also publish the housing price index for June, which is anticipated to provide insights into the real estate market [20] Stock Unlocking Events - A total of 33 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked next week, amounting to 1.104 billion shares with a total market value of approximately 26.257 billion yuan based on the closing price on July 11 [22]

Report Summary 1. Overall Market Outlook - The expectation of "anti-involution" is difficult to disprove, and commodities are generally strong [1]. 2. Variety Analysis 2.1 Stock Index Futures - The stock index rose and then fell on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3500 points. The trading volume of the two markets continued to rise to 1.53 trillion yuan. The media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and comprehensive finance sectors led the gains, while non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals led the losses [1]. - As the stock index valuation rises to a high level, market caution has increased. Without new positive news, the market will return to high-level volatility in the short term. Considering the significant impact of the mid-year report performance in July, the IF and IH contracts with clear constituent stock earnings may be more resilient. Overall, although there are still uncertainties in the external environment, the A-share market shows resilience, and the trading volume has increased, with the oscillation center expected to continue to move up [1]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market remained loose, and the bond market remained at a high level. The bond futures rose slightly yesterday and remained within the range. Domestically, the latest inflation data was still weak. Trump announced a second wave of tariff letters involving eight countries. The Fed meeting minutes showed that most officials believed that tariffs might continue to push up inflation [1]. - The central bank continued its net capital withdrawal operation, but the capital market remained loose. The equity market did not continue its strength yesterday, reducing the drag on the bond market. Overall, with high macro uncertainty, the bond market has limited directional drivers. However, with an optimistic capital market outlook, the bond market will remain at a high level. But there are still risks of high valuation pressure and high congestion. Continue to monitor the performance of the equity market, and the stock-bond seesaw may continue [1]. 2.3 Gold and Silver Futures - The US government continued to release new tariff policy information, which had limited impact on the market. The logic of factors such as services and inflation that are favorable to gold prices has not been disproven, and the central bank's continuous gold purchase behavior has not ended. In the short term, gold prices will continue to oscillate at a high level, but the long-term upward trend has not been broken [1][4]. - The gold-silver ratio on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is at the 68.5% quantile in the past three years. The silver price fluctuates with gold, and after the silver price breaks through, the support around 8500 is strong. Strategically, it is recommended to hold the short position of out-of-the-money put options on the August contracts of gold and silver until expiration, or transfer the position to the October contracts [4]. 2.4 Non-Ferrous Metals Futures - **Copper**: The LME copper performed the weakest, and the inventory continued to rise. The Shanghai copper followed the LME copper and fell sharply at the opening yesterday, then oscillated at a low level. The domestic inflation data was still weak, and Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's view on inflation affected the market. The supply at the mine end remained tight, and the demand outlook was still cautious. Affected by Trump's statement of a 50% tariff increase on copper, the COMEX and LME copper prices diverged, with the premium exceeding 25%. However, due to the large inflow of copper in the US, the market's expectation of copper surplus in the US after the tariff implementation increased. The inventory of the three major exchanges has been rising, and the domestic market generally followed the LME, but the decline was slightly smaller. The financial attribute still supports copper prices in the medium to long term, but the tariff policy is uncertain, and the structural mismatch persists, so copper price fluctuations may increase [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina prices continued to be strong, breaking through 3200. The Shanghai aluminum oscillated higher at night. The domestic inflation data was weak, and Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's view on inflation affected the market. The recent strength of alumina prices was mainly due to the "anti-involution" expectation, but the excess capacity situation remained unchanged. The supply of Shanghai aluminum was constrained, and the import profit was inverted. The demand was cautious due to the off-season, and the inventory showed signs of accumulation. Overall, alumina is temporarily strong due to sentiment, but the upside is uncertain. The medium-term upward trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged, but the short-term demand and inventory are dragging, and it will continue to oscillate at a high level [4]. - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has seasonally recovered, and the port inventory has increased significantly, causing the nickel ore price to decline marginally. In June, the nickel iron production in Indonesia and China decreased by 3.85% month-on-month but increased by 22.21% year-on-year. The supply was relatively abundant, but downstream demand was limited. The price of intermediate products was relatively firm. The nickel fundamentals have not improved, and the off-season demand is not favorable. The supply pressure has increased with the increase in the Philippines' ore supply. Recently, the nickel price has oscillated lower, but the extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has boosted the demand for MHP, and the price of intermediate products has rebounded. As the nickel price dropped to 119,000 yuan, the downward momentum weakened, and it will continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term. The short position of out-of-the-money call options strategy can be continued [4][6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The prices of spodumene and lepidolite have continued to rise, driving up the lithium price due to increased mining costs. However, the improvement in the lithium carbonate fundamentals is limited. The production capacity of salt lakes has continued to increase seasonally, and the weekly production of lithium carbonate has remained at a relatively high level this year. The downstream demand has not increased, and the production schedules of battery cell and cathode enterprises have been mediocre. The traditional off-season will also limit the growth rate of terminal demand. The lithium carbonate inventory is still in the accumulation cycle, and the upside of the price is limited. It is advisable to short at high levels during this stage of the rebound [6]. - **Silicon Energy**: The supply-side reform and industry restructuring expectations of the polysilicon industry have increased significantly due to the policy signal of capacity regulation. The recent strong performance of the polysilicon spot price has further promoted the rise of the polysilicon futures price. In the short term, the sentiment is strong, but the fundamentals have not fully reflected. Overall, the policy support for the price is strong, and it is advisable to hold the short position of put options [6]. 2.5 Steel and Iron Ore Futures - **Rebar**: The spot price of rebar fluctuated slightly yesterday. The trading volume of construction steel decreased to 88,500 tons. The demand in the off-season has no bright spots, and the market drivers are concentrated on steel supply and raw materials. The "anti-involution" expectation is difficult to disprove, and there are rumors of crude steel production restrictions again. The market expectation is optimistic, but the time for the implementation of supply contraction is uncertain. On the one hand, the profit of electric arc furnaces has recovered, and there is a risk of increased production in the off-season. On the other hand, the profit of long-process steel mills is good, and the production cost has stabilized and rebounded. The spot price of coking coal has increased rapidly, and there are also plans to increase the price of coke. It is expected that the rebar futures price will oscillate strongly, with the bottom rising and the upside limited by the electric arc furnace cost. The option-selling strategy is temporarily better than the single-sided futures strategy. It is recommended to continue to hold the short position of out-of-the-money put options (RB2510P2900) [6]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: The spot price of hot rolled coil fluctuated yesterday. The demand in the off-season is average, both in reality and expectation. Overseas orders for automobiles and home appliances have weakened, and the domestic "trade-in" policy has limited room. The price difference between domestic and foreign steel has narrowed significantly, and the pressure on direct exports may increase. The market upward drivers are concentrated on steel supply and raw materials. The "anti-involution" expectation is difficult to disprove, and the expectation of crude steel production reduction has increased. The long-process steel mills are actively producing, and the production cost has stabilized and rebounded. The spot price of coking coal has increased rapidly, and there are also plans to increase the price of coke. It is expected that the hot rolled coil futures price will oscillate strongly this week, with the bottom cost rising and the upside limited by the export cost. It is advisable to temporarily wait and see on the single side, and consider continuing to hold the arbitrage strategy of compressing profits on the January contracts [6][8]. - **Iron Ore**: The "anti-involution" expectation is difficult to disprove, and there are rumors of crude steel production restrictions again, but the time for the implementation of steel mill production cuts is uncertain. In the short term, the profit of steel mills still encourages long-process steel mills to maintain an active production rhythm. The daily output of domestic blast furnace hot metal has declined slowly at a high level. Under the background of high hot metal output and low steel mill raw material inventory, the supply-demand contradiction of imported iron ore in July is limited. The iron ore price is running strongly, compressing the profit of steel mills. The upside of the iron ore price in the off-season is mainly limited by the resumption of electric arc furnace production and the narrowing of the steel price difference between domestic and foreign markets, which restricts the upside of steel prices. It is advisable to hold the short position of out-of-the-money put options (I2509-P-700) and continue to hold the iron ore 9-1 positive spread strategy (spread 27.5, +0.5) [8]. 2.6 Coal and Coke Futures - **Coking Coal**: The auction price at the mine mouth has continued to rise, and the replenishment enthusiasm of steel and coke enterprises and the willingness of the trading sector to enter the market have continued to increase. It is expected that the raw coal inventory of coal mines will further decrease, and the temporary supply-demand mismatch is still favorable for coal prices. The long position strategy can be continued. Recently, attention should be paid to the production increase progress of mines after the safety production month [8]. - **Coke**: The production enthusiasm of steel mills is good, and the daily output of hot metal has remained at a relatively high level in the off-season. The demand for coke in the furnace is supported, and steel mills are still purchasing raw materials. The port trading activity has also increased, and the spot price has increased. The futures price has also shown a strong trend [8]. 2.7 Soda Ash and Glass Futures - **Soda Ash**: The fundamental negative factors are clear, that is, supply exceeds demand. Yesterday, the daily production of soda ash increased to 102,900 tons (+500 tons). Kunshan produced products last night, and Lianyungang Alkali Industry plans to increase production on the 11th. The demand lacks bright spots, and the daily consumption of rigid demand is about 98,000 tons (including exports). Alkali plants may continue to accumulate inventory passively. However, at the micro level, after the single-sided position of the September contracts of soda ash reached a record high, it has rebounded after three consecutive days of position reduction. The single-sided position is still as high as more than 1.59 million lots (equivalent to 31.8 million tons), and the virtual position ratio is too high. Be vigilant against the risk of short squeeze in the market due to the "anti-involution" expectation or sentiment. It is advisable to hold the short position of the September contracts of soda ash with a stop-profit line. From the perspective of the production capacity cycle, glass is stronger than soda ash, and the strategy of going long on the January contracts of glass and shorting the January contracts of soda ash can be patiently held (spread -112, -13) [8]. - **Float Glass**: The fundamentals have not changed much. The operating production capacity of float glass has remained stable. Yesterday, the average sales rate of glass in the four major production areas decreased to 97% (-5%). The futures price is at a premium to the Hubei spot price. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of spot purchases based on futures. It is expected that the glass factory will reduce inventory by 1.7 million heavy boxes this week. The main driver of the off-season market comes from the supply side. The "anti-involution" expectation is difficult to disprove, and the production capacity of glass factories using petroleum coke and natural gas processes has been in a loss state, and the probability of cold repair is increasing. It is believed that the probability of the realization of the supply contraction expectation in the far-month contracts may gradually increase. Strategically, it is recommended to go long on the January contracts at low prices on the single side and continue to hold the arbitrage strategy of going long on the January contracts of glass and shorting the January contracts of soda ash (spread -112, -13) [8]. 2.8 Energy Futures - **Crude Oil**: The market is currently in a stage where OPEC+ is accelerating production increases and the US is in a peak demand season. The market assesses that the excess pressure is relatively limited, but the US API inventory shows a significant accumulation of 7.128 million barrels of crude oil, far exceeding expectations, and the monthly spread has started to cool recently. The expectation of tight supply in the US market will be alleviated. It is expected that the short-term rebound space of oil prices is limited, and attention should be paid to shorting opportunities on rebounds [10]. - **Methanol**: This week, the arrival volume was 310,300 (+55,700) tons, with an increase of 126,200 tons in Jiangsu and a decrease of 15,000 tons each in Guangdong and Fujian. Affected by the increase in the arrival volume, the inventory in East China ports increased by 61,000 tons, and that in South China decreased by 15,800 tons. Currently, the port inventory has reached the highest level since April but is still at a historical low for the same period. The factory inventory only increased by 4,600 tons. Although the spot trading volume has declined, the production enterprise's operating rate has also decreased. The "anti-involution" has no direct impact on the methanol industry chain for the time being, but the rebound in coal prices and the disappearance of pessimistic sentiment can provide some support for methanol futures [10]. 2.9 Chemical Futures - **Polyolefins**: Although OPEC+ has increased production, tariffs and geopolitical factors have supported the rebound of crude oil prices. This week, the spot trading has been sluggish, and the production enterprise's inventory has increased, with PE increasing by 12.5% and PP increasing by 2%. The social inventory has also increased, with PE increasing by 2.1% and PP increasing by 3.2%. In previous years, the inventory decreased during the same period, but this year it has continued to increase since June, indicating an oversupply situation. Recently, there have been concentrated production cuts in coal mines and new energy metals, triggering expectations of a new round of supply-side reforms, but it is difficult to have a substantial positive impact on polyolefins in the short term, and the price will continue to decline from July to August [10]. 2.10 Agricultural Futures - **Cotton**: In terms of supply, multiple regiments in Xinjiang have been affected by hail, and the damage to cotton fields varies. The weather theme has boosted the cotton price to run strongly. In terms of demand, terminal orders are mainly small and scattered, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. Some enterprises have started to take high-temperature holidays or reduce production capacity due to sales pressure and high temperatures. In terms of inventory, the decline rate of the national commercial cotton inventory at the end of June has slowed down compared with last month, but the year-on-year decline in Xinjiang's cotton inventory has increased. Overall, the expectation of tight supply at the end of this year still strongly supports the futures price. It is recommended to continue to hold the previous long positions [10]. - **Rubber**: The market sentiment is optimistic, and the rubber price has oscillated and rebounded. However, the automobile market has entered the traditional off-season, and tire enterprises still face inventory reduction pressure, so the demand expectation is not positive. The production in domestic and Southeast Asian rubber-producing countries has increased smoothly during the peak season, the weather conditions in the producing areas are normal, and the negative impact of climate change on rubber tapping operations has gradually weakened. The price of raw materials in the Hat Yai market has continued to decline. The rubber fundamentals continue to show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, which may limit the upside of the rubber price [10].

Market Overview - On July 8, the A-share market experienced a significant rebound, with all three major indices rising, and the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 3500 points, reaching a new high for the year [1][2] - The total market turnover was 1.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 247.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, indicating a notable increase in trading volume [2] Sector Performance - The non-bank financial, consumer electronics, CPO, and photovoltaic sectors were key drivers of the market rebound, with the technology and large-cap stocks receiving significant capital inflows [1][4] - Among the major sectors, telecommunications, electric power equipment, and electronics led the gains, with respective increases of 2.89%, 2.30%, and 2.27% [3] Stock Contributions - Key stocks contributing to the rise included Industrial Fulian, Agricultural Bank of China, and China Merchants Bank, which significantly impacted the Shanghai Composite Index [2] - In the ChiNext Index, stocks like Sungrow Power Supply, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Shenghong Technology contributed to nearly half of the index's increase [2] Capital Flow - On July 8, the net inflow of main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 65.68 billion yuan, ending a nine-day streak of net outflows, with the Shanghai 300 index seeing a net inflow of 57.92 billion yuan [4] - The electronic, computer, and telecommunications sectors saw the largest net inflows, amounting to 40.76 billion yuan, 26.60 billion yuan, and 21.01 billion yuan, respectively [4] Individual Stock Movements - A total of 77 stocks saw net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with Zhongyou Capital, Pengding Holdings, and Zhongji Xuchuang leading the inflows [5] - Conversely, 37 stocks experienced net outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with Changshan Pharmaceutical, Jinyi Culture, and Rongfa Nuclear Power leading the outflows [5] Economic Outlook - The total market capitalization of A-shares reached a historical high of 101.54 trillion yuan as of July 8 [6] - Analysts suggest that the strong economic growth momentum in the first half of the year may ease pressure on achieving annual growth targets, with a focus on "stabilizing growth" in domestic policies [6] - The potential for a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut in the third quarter could provide additional liquidity, benefiting equity asset valuations [6] Investment Focus - Analysts recommend focusing on technology sectors that have been in adjustment, such as AI computing and robotics, as well as sectors with positive earnings forecasts like wind and thermal power [7] - There is also an emphasis on monitoring stocks related to mergers and acquisitions as the half-year report disclosure period approaches [7]