1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Weak Oscillation" rating for the coking coal and coke sectors in the black industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The delay of the tariff policy has boosted the sentiment in the black industry, but now the sentiment - based trading is basically completed. The spot prices of coking coal and coke are running weakly. Although the apparent demand of the five major steel products has rebounded this week, the pig iron output has begun to decline, and steel mills still have the intention to further lower the prices [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Market Review - The Jm2509 contract closed at 883.0, down 1.29% from the previous trading day's close. The J2505 contract closed at 1472.0, down 0.67% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, the Jm2509 contract closed at 864.5, down 2.10% from the day - session close, and the J2509 contract closed at 1456.0, down 1.09% from the day - session close [1] Important Information - This week, the supply of the five major steel products was 883.69 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.82 million tons or 0.7%. The total inventory of the five major steel products was 1430.66 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45.41 million tons or 3.1%. The weekly consumption of the five major products was 913.76 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8%. Among them, the consumption of building materials increased by 16.2% week - on - week, and the consumption of plates increased by 5.2% week - on - week [1] - This week, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples was 89.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7%. The daily average output of raw coal was 200.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 million tons, and the raw coal inventory was 606.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 27.0 million tons [1] - Today, the first round of price cuts for coke began to be implemented, with a reduction of 50 - 55 yuan/ton [1] Market Logic - The delay of the tariff policy has boosted the sentiment in the black industry, but now the sentiment - based trading is basically completed. The spot prices of coking coal and coke are running weakly. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi has been lowered again, there are more unsuccessful online auctions, and the transaction prices are mainly decreasing. The first round of price cuts for coke has basically been implemented. Although the apparent demand of the five major steel products has rebounded this week, the pig iron output has begun to decline. Steel mills still have the intention to further lower the prices. Attention should be paid to China's direct or indirect steel export data [1] Trading Strategy - In the short term, coking coal will mainly fluctuate widely in the range of 850 - 900, and coke will fluctuate in the range of 1440 - 1500. It will face pressure and fall back above the range. Short - term short positions can be held continuously [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report believes that there is still rigid demand support, but downstream procurement is cautious, market sentiment continues to cool, and prices lack effective support. With continuous disturbances from crude steel production restrictions and medium - to long - term overcapacity pressure, the short - term futures market performance is expected to be weak with oscillations [2][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The price of coking coal mostly dropped by 20 - 30 yuan/ton this week. On the 9th, the domestic coking coal market fluctuated weakly. The price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market dropped by 10 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal was 1,270 yuan/ton [5]. - The domestic coke price remained stable this week. The hope for the second round of coke price increase has basically failed, and there are rumors that steel mills will propose a coke price cut next week [5]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. The central bank announced measures such as reducing the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, lowering the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, and reducing the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points. The Financial Regulatory Administration will introduce eight incremental policies, and the CSRC will support Central Huijin [7]. - In April, the year - on - year CPI decreased by 0.1%, and the PPI decreased by 2.7%. From January to April, the total value of China's goods trade imports and exports was 14.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. Exports were 8.39 trillion yuan, up 7.5%, and imports were 5.75 trillion yuan, down 4.2% [8]. - In late April 2025, key steel enterprises produced 22.02 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.202 million tons (a 1.2% decrease month - on - month), 19.6 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.96 million tons (a 0.3% decrease month - on - month), and 22.74 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.274 million tons (a 7.6% increase month - on - month) [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Downstream steel mills are operating well, and the high - level operation of pig iron output provides rigid support for coke demand. However, due to the weakening of billet prices, market expectations are cautious [2]. - Coking coal production remains high, and inventory is at a high level. Under the situation of strong supply and demand, the fundamental contradiction of coking coal is not prominent, and the market price fluctuates steadily [2]. - Affected by the off - season of steel consumption, steel mills have obvious expectations of maintenance and production reduction, and downstream procurement of raw materials is passive. But currently, steel mills are profitable, and the current high pig iron output provides good support for raw material prices in the short term, so a sharp decline in coking coal is unlikely [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The short - term futures market is expected to be weak with oscillations. The investment strategies are: for single - side trading, combine shorting at high prices with range trading; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for coking profit, mainly wait and see [32][33].