1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In June, the capital market was loose with a slight downward shift in the capital center under the central bank's care. In July, the capital market may continue to be moderately loose due to favorable factors, but it may not loosen significantly [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 6 - Month Review: Central Bank's Care Leads to Slight Downward Shift in Capital Center - **Capital Market Looseness**: In June, the capital market remained loose, with most - term capital centers moving down. DR001, DR007, and DR014 operation centers decreased by 11bp, 2bp, and 1bp respectively compared to May. DR001 mostly operated below the policy rate, and the deviation of DR007 from the policy rate "anti - seasonally" narrowed [2][12]. - **Central Bank's Warm Attitude**: The central bank showed a warm attitude. It conducted two outright reverse - repurchase operations in June with early announcements, net - injecting 2000 billion yuan. MLF continued to increase, with a net injection of 118 billion yuan in June. The central bank's total net - injected funds in June were the second - highest among the same periods since 2018 [16]. - **Inter - bank Certificate of Deposit (NCD)**: In June, the maturity scale of NCDs reached a record high, and the issuance scale was the second - highest in history. However, the NCD issuance rate, after rising in mid - to - late May, started to decline in June under the central bank's long - term capital injection. The R - DR spread seasonally widened [3][19][21]. 3.2 7 - Month Outlook: Capital Market May Continue to be Moderately Loose under Favorable Factors - **Historical Seasonal Pattern**: Historically, capital rates in July tend to decline seasonally. Since 2018, the capital market in July has been more relaxed than in June, mainly manifested by the narrowing of the deviation of DR007 from the policy rate [4][24]. - **Exchange Rate Factor**: The recent dissipation of RMB depreciation pressure and the exchange rate approaching 7.15 mean that the current exchange - rate environment no longer restricts the central bank's monetary easing [4]. - **Central Bank's Mention of "Preventing Capital Idling"**: Although the central bank mentioned "preventing capital idling" in the second - quarter monetary policy meeting, since 2024, when this statement was made, the capital rate did not rise significantly. The central bank's frequent mention of it in 2025 may not be directly related to a change in its attitude [5][31][32]. - **Liquidity Gap**: In July, the net financing pressure of government bonds will slightly increase by 80 billion yuan compared to June. The increase in government deposits may widen the liquidity gap. Considering the maturity of monetary tools, the liquidity gap will be 2.06 trillion yuan. Assuming the central bank conducts equal - amount roll - overs, the estimated excess - reserve ratio in July is about 1.3%, slightly lower than in June [6][37][42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints From April 21 to April 25, 2025, the central bank net - injected funds, and the capital interest rates generally declined; the net financing scale of government bonds decreased; the net financing scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased, and the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit slightly increased; the leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market remained stable at a relatively low level, and the net lending scale of state - owned large - scale banks and policy banks slightly increased. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the net financing of government bonds is expected to be 12.11 billion yuan [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Funds - **Central Bank Net Investment**: From April 21 to April 25, 2025, the central bank's reverse repurchase investment was 88.2 billion yuan, and the repurchase was 80.8 billion yuan. The treasury fixed - deposit investment was 10 billion yuan, and the 1 - year medium - term lending facility (MLF) investment was 60 billion yuan, with a total net investment of 77.4 billion yuan. From April 28 to April 30, 2025, 50.45 billion yuan of open - market reverse repurchases will expire [6]. - **Capital Interest Rates**: From April 21 to April 25, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 decreased by 2.0 basis points compared with April 14 - April 18, 2025; the average values of DR007 and R007 decreased by 1.8 basis points and 1.2 basis points respectively. On April 25, with the 60 - billion - yuan MLF investment, the overnight capital interest rates DR001 and R001 both dropped below 1.60% [7]. - **Government Bond Net Financing**: From April 21 to April 27, 2025, the net repayment of government bonds was about 8.01 billion yuan, 87.8 billion yuan more than that from April 14 to April 20, 2025. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the net financing of government bonds is expected to be about 12.11 billion yuan [8]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Maturity Yields**: As of April 25, 2025, the maturity yields of 1M and 1Y inter - bank certificates of deposit increased by 1 basis point compared with April 18, 2025, while the 3M yield was basically flat [9]. - **Net Financing**: From April 21 to April 27, 2025, the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was about 18.76 billion yuan, compared with a net repayment of about 0.42 billion yuan from April 14 to April 20, 2025. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the maturity repayment amount of inter - bank certificates of deposit is expected to be 33.53 billion yuan, lower than this week's 79.06 billion yuan [9]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio**: From April 21 to April 25, 2025, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.19%, basically the same as that from April 14 to April 18, 2025 [10]. - **Net Lending Scale**: On April 25, 2025, the net lending funds of state - owned large - scale banks and policy banks were about 2.93 trillion yuan, accounting for 53.3% of the total net lending. On April 18, 2025, the net lending scale was about 2.88 trillion yuan, accounting for 52.4% [10].