Core Insights - The Chinese banking wealth management market is projected to reach 29.14 trillion yuan by Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9.41% and over 126 million investors participating [1] - Despite the higher returns of wealth management products (typically 2-3%) compared to fixed-term deposits (1.35%), many individuals still prefer to invest in fixed-term deposits due to safety concerns [3][6] Group 1: Safety and Risk Considerations - Safety is the primary concern for investors, as fixed-term deposits offer full compensation for amounts up to 500,000 yuan in case of bank failure, while wealth management products carry the risk of loss [6] - Many conservative investors prioritize capital preservation over high returns, leading them to favor fixed-term deposits [6][9] - The current investment environment has heightened risks, with average losses reported for A-share investors and public funds, making fixed-term deposits a safer choice [13] Group 2: Liquidity and Accessibility - Fixed-term deposits provide better liquidity compared to wealth management products, which often have a lock-in period, making it difficult to access funds in emergencies [6][7] - Investors are advised to split their funds, keeping a portion in fixed-term deposits for emergencies while using the rest for wealth management products to maximize returns [7] Group 3: Financial Literacy and Investment Barriers - The elderly population, who are the main savers, often lack financial knowledge and risk tolerance, leading them to prefer familiar fixed-term deposits [9][11] - The minimum investment threshold for wealth management products is significantly higher (starting from 50,000 yuan) compared to fixed-term deposits (starting from 50 yuan), limiting access for average households [11]

证 券 研 究 报 告 杠杆、南向资金持续放量 ——流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报 2025年8月12日 证券分析师：姚佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 联系人：朱冬墨 邮箱：zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 核心结论 证 券 研 究 报 告 • 资金流动性： 位，净流入规模小幅下降。 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 1）资金供给端扩张，杠杆资金净流入持续高位，ETF净申购回暖； 2）资金需求端南向资金近三月连续周均百亿以上净流入，累计净流入超2700亿。 • 交易拥挤度：以过去四周成交额占比/市值占比（较全A）作为衡量主题行业交易热度的表征指标来看，本周热度 分位（下同）上行行业主要为：军工+16pct至85%、机械+7pct至91%、半导体+5pct至9%；下行行业主要为： 光伏-24pct至33%、轻工-2 ...

Group 1: Capital Flow and Liquidity - Southbound funds have seen a cumulative net inflow of over 250 billion yuan in the past three months, with weekly net inflows exceeding 10 billion yuan[14] - Retail investors contributed a net inflow of 134.86 billion yuan in the last week, marking a 22.5 billion yuan increase from the previous value, maintaining a high level at the 76.4 percentile over the past five years[8] - Leverage funds continue to flow in at high levels, with net inflows of approximately 322.8 billion yuan last week, although this is a decrease from the previous week's 446.1 billion yuan[30] Group 2: Market Trends and Investor Sentiment - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced its first decline after five consecutive weeks of increases, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment[8] - The trading heat for the machinery sector increased by 29 percentage points to 86%, while the construction sector rose by 24 percentage points to 72%[9] - The search interest in A-shares has declined, reflecting a cooling investor sentiment despite high net inflows from retail investors[8] Group 3: ETF and Fund Performance - The net subscription for stock ETFs dropped significantly to -38.13 billion yuan, a stark contrast to the previous net inflow of -5.3 billion yuan, placing it at the 1.9 percentile over the past three years[42] - The issuance of new public equity funds decreased to 9.21 billion yuan, which is at the 46 percentile over the past three years, indicating a contraction in new fund launches[50] - The total amount of share buybacks increased to 3.6 billion yuan, up from 1.85 billion yuan, reflecting a strong buyback trend at the 78 percentile over the past three years[46]

Group 1: Fund Liquidity - Southbound funds have seen a cumulative net inflow of over 250 billion CNY in the past three months, with weekly net inflows exceeding 10 billion CNY[5] - Leverage funds continue to see high net inflows, with net inflow of 322.8 billion CNY last week, maintaining a high level at the 93rd percentile over the past three years[11] - Stock-type ETFs experienced a significant net outflow of 381.3 billion CNY, placing it at the 1.9th percentile over the past three years[18] Group 2: Trading Congestion - The trading heat for the machinery sector increased by 29 percentage points to 86%, while the construction sector rose by 24 percentage points to 72%[52] - The insurance sector's trading heat increased by 13 percentage points to 28%, whereas the light industry, photovoltaic, and military industries saw declines of 18, 17, and 16 percentage points, respectively[52] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The A-share market saw a decline after five consecutive weeks of increases, with a drop in overall search heat for A-shares on social media[65] - Retail investor net inflow in the A-share market was 134.9 billion CNY last week, maintaining a high level at the 76.4th percentile over the past five years[2]

Group 1: Liquidity and Fund Flow - The supply side of funds is expanding, with net inflows of leveraged funds remaining high, and the issuance of equity public funds returning to high levels, with 172 billion units newly established[6] - Southbound funds have maintained a weekly average net inflow of over 10 billion for ten consecutive weeks, with a cumulative net inflow of nearly 200 billion[6] - The net inflow of margin financing last week was approximately 446.1 billion, marking a 97% percentile over the past three years, and the total margin financing balance reached 1.93 trillion[13] Group 2: Trading Activity and Market Sentiment - The trading heat for the mechanical industry increased by 55 percentage points to 67%, while the banking sector decreased by 20 percentage points to 51%[2] - Retail investor net inflow in the A-share market reached 132.6 billion, an increase of 539.8 billion from the previous value, marking a new high since April this year[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a year-to-date high of 3600 points on July 23, driving an increase in A-share search heat on platforms like Kuaishou and Douyin[2] Group 3: Sector Performance - The net inflow for the pharmaceutical sector was 48.5 billion, while the petrochemical sector saw a net outflow of 8.0 billion[22] - The net inflow for the non-ferrous metals sector was 45.4 billion, and the machinery sector recorded a net inflow of 38.7 billion[22] - The stock-type ETF experienced a net outflow of 60 billion, which is at the 20.5% percentile over the past three years[23]

Liquidity and Fund Flow - Leverage funds continue to see net inflows, reaching a new high since late February, with net inflow of 268 billion CNY last week, placing it in the 90th percentile over the past three years[13] - Southbound funds maintained an average weekly net inflow exceeding 10 billion CNY for nine consecutive weeks, totaling nearly 1700 billion CNY[6] - IPO financing surged to 181.7 billion CNY, representing the 71st percentile over the past three years[26] Trading Congestion - The trading heat for the photovoltaic sector increased by 32 percentage points to 71%, while real estate rose by 27 percentage points to 60%[56] - The building materials sector saw a 25 percentage point increase to 66%, indicating heightened trading activity[56] - Conversely, the chemical sector decreased by 13 percentage points to 59%, and media fell by 9 percentage points to 58%[56] Investor Sentiment - Retail investor net inflow decreased to 566 billion CNY, down 321 billion CNY from the previous value, placing it in the 13.7th percentile over the past five years[2] - The search interest for self-media platforms like Kuaishou and Douyin has declined from previous highs, indicating a cooling in market enthusiasm[69] - The trend of public funds clustering has weakened, with a shift towards value stocks, particularly in electronics, cyclical, and consumer sectors[2]

Liquidity - The net inflow of leveraged funds remains high, with a net inflow of 225 billion CNY in margin financing, placing it in the 87th percentile over the past three years[8] - Southbound funds have maintained a weekly average net inflow of over 10 billion CNY for the past two months, totaling nearly 150 billion CNY[7] - Stock-type ETFs have seen a turnaround with a net inflow of 3 million CNY, compared to a previous outflow of 236 billion CNY[21] Trading Congestion - The trading heat for the construction materials sector increased by 39 percentage points to 49%, while the photovoltaic sector rose by 32 percentage points to 54%[54] - The steel sector's trading heat increased by 25 percentage points to 51%, while the non-ferrous metals sector decreased by 8 percentage points to 23%[54] - The chemical sector's trading heat fell by 6 percentage points to 72%, and the media sector decreased by 6 percentage points to 64%[54] Investor Sentiment - Retail investors saw a net inflow of 887.1 billion CNY, an increase of 35.4 billion CNY from the previous value, placing it in the 40.3 percentile over the past five years[83] - The net inflow of financing funds was 225.3 billion CNY, up by 99.3 billion CNY from the previous week[2] - The market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index retreating from a high on July 11, leading to increased search interest in self-media platforms like Kuaishou and Douyin[5]

Liquidity and Funding - The supply side of funds is contracting, with public equity new issuance dropping to 3.52 billion units from 14.36 billion, representing a 44% percentile over the past three years[8] - Southbound funds have maintained a weekly average net inflow of over 10 billion for seven consecutive weeks, totaling over 120 billion[4] - The total amount of stock buybacks increased significantly to 9 billion from 2.09 billion, reaching the 98% percentile over the past three years[24] Trading Congestion - The trading heat for the photovoltaic sector rose by 22 percentage points to 27%, while the steel sector increased by 21 percentage points to 39%[4] - The brokerage sector's trading heat increased by 14 percentage points to 53%, indicating a strong interest in these sectors[50] - Conversely, the mechanical sector's trading heat decreased by 11 percentage points to 11%, and the medical services sector fell by 6 percentage points to 84%[4] Investor Sentiment - Retail investor net inflow in the A-share market reached 81.57 billion, an increase of 21.87 billion from the previous value, placing it in the 37.6% percentile over the past five years[4] - The market saw a significant rise in search interest for A-shares on Kuaishou, reaching a new high for the year as the Shanghai Composite Index approached 3500 points[66] - The sentiment on Weibo improved significantly, driven by the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high, indicating a rise in optimistic sentiment among investors[74]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The trend of loose funds is strong, and there is no need to worry about short - term liquidity, but there may be sporadic disturbances at times such as tax payment periods [1]. - In the past week, the trading volume of trading desks was high, and the sentiment of funds to extend duration remained strong. The duration of medium - and long - term bond funds reached a new high this year, and there was a trend of extending duration in credit bonds, secondary bonds, and interest - rate bonds. In the future, the short - term market is driven by trading desks, so it is necessary to closely monitor the ebb and flow of buying in ultra - long non - active interest - rate bonds and long - term credit bonds [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Liquidity Tracking 3.1.1 Central Bank Operations - In the past week (6/30 - 7/4), the central bank's open - market operations resulted in a net liquidity withdrawal of 13753 billion yuan. As of 7/4, the central bank's reverse - repurchase balance was 6522 billion yuan, significantly lower than on 6/30 but still higher than the seasonal level in previous years. In the next week (7/7 - 7/11), 6522 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases will mature, with the maturity pressure distributed as Monday > Tuesday > Wednesday > Thursday > Friday [9]. - In July, a total of 1.5 trillion yuan of MLF and outright reverse - repurchases will mature, including 3000 billion yuan of MLF, 7000 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse - repurchases, and 5000 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse - repurchases [10]. 3.1.2 Government Bond Issuance - In the past week, the net payment of government bonds was 341 billion yuan, with a net payment of - 401 billion yuan for treasury bonds and 742 billion yuan for local bonds. In the next week, the expected net payment of government bonds is 2511 billion yuan, with 1399 billion yuan for treasury bonds and 1112 billion yuan for local bonds. The net payment pressure is relatively large on Monday, about 2174 billion yuan, and relatively small from Tuesday to Friday [14]. - As of 7/4, the net financing progress of treasury bonds is 53.8%, with a remaining net financing space of 3.08 trillion yuan in 2025; the issuance progress of new local bonds is 50.3%, with a remaining issuance space of 2.58 trillion yuan; the issuance progress of refinancing special bonds is 89.8%, with a remaining issuance space of 204.1 billion yuan. The supply of government bonds is slow in July, and the issuance pressure is large in August and September in the third quarter [16][18]. 3.1.3 Bill Market - In the past week, the bill interest rates showed a divergent trend. The 3 - month direct - discount and transfer - discount interest rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks increased, while the 6 - month rates decreased. Seasonally, the current bill interest rates are still significantly weaker than the seasonal level, indicating that the recovery of credit demand is still slow [24]. 3.1.4 Fund Review - After the quarter - end, funds became significantly looser. From 7/2 - 7/4, the fund sentiment index stabilized in the range of 45 - 50. Most fund interest rates declined, and the fund prices moved closer to the policy interest rates. The term and market stratifications mostly converged [26][28][29]. - In the past week, the total trading volumes of DR/R/GC were 12.10 trillion yuan, 37.99 trillion yuan, and 107.87 million lots respectively. The trading volumes of DR001/R001/GC001 were 11.64 trillion yuan, 34.05 trillion yuan, and 93.67 million lots respectively. On 7/4, the overnight trading volume ratios were 97%, 91%, and 89% respectively, all higher than on 6/27 [35]. - The net lending of the banking system was basically stable, and the net lending of large - scale banks increased. The net borrowing demand of core non - banking institutions decreased slightly. In terms of maturity, large - scale banks mainly lent overnight funds, while funds and securities firms mainly borrowed overnight funds, and insurance and other products mainly borrowed 7 - day funds [39]. 3.1.5 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - In the past week (6/30 - 7/6), the total issuance of certificates of deposit was 243.7 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 2.08 billion yuan. The issuance scale decreased compared with the previous week, but the net financing scale increased. By entity, the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit was ranked as joint - stock banks > state - owned banks > city commercial banks > rural commercial banks. By maturity, the weighted issuance maturity increased significantly [46]. - In the past week, the issuance prices of certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks at various maturities decreased significantly. On 7/4, the yield to maturity of 1 - year AAA certificates of deposit was 1.5929%, down 4.21bps from 6/27. In the next three weeks, 510.5 billion yuan (7/7 - 7/13), 802.8 billion yuan (7/14 - 7/20), 1076.5 billion yuan (7/21 - 7/27), and 376.7 billion yuan (7/23 - 8/3) will mature respectively. The maturity pressure is large in late July [48][52]. 3.2 Institutional Behavior Tracking 3.2.1 Secondary Transactions - The funds' demand for credit bonds is stronger than that for interest - rate bonds, and the trend of extending the duration of credit bonds is obvious [56]. 3.2.2 Institutional Duration - On 7/4, the median of the 10 - day moving average of the duration of medium - and long - term bond funds was 3.96 years, further increasing compared with 6/27 (3.91 years). The 5 - day moving average of the trading duration of urban investment bonds, secondary bonds increased, while that of industrial bonds decreased [57][61]. 3.2.3 Institutional Leverage - In the past week, the calculated bond - market leverage ratio was 107.96%, slightly higher than the previous week (107.93%), and the upward trend slowed down [63].

Liquidity and Fund Flow - The supply side of funds has slightly contracted, with public equity issuance recovering in the past two weeks, and leveraged funds seeing a significant net inflow of 265 billion CNY, ranking in the 90th percentile over the past three years[6] - Equity financing surged by 543.5 billion CNY in the last two weeks, placing it in the 99th percentile over the past three years[4] - Southbound funds continued to flow in, with a net inflow of 259 billion CNY, ranking in the 88th percentile over the past three years[39] Trading Congestion - Financial and TMT sectors saw an increase in trading heat, with brokerage heat rising by 34 percentage points to 39% and computer sector heat increasing by 16 percentage points to 67%[4] - Conversely, the chemical sector experienced a decline of 11 percentage points to 79%, and the real estate sector decreased by 9 percentage points to 34%[4] Investor Sentiment - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high for the year, driving a surge in search interest for Kuaishou A-shares[4] - Retail investor net inflow decreased to 633 billion CNY, down 402.1 billion CNY from the previous value, placing it in the 19.2 percentile over the past five years[4] - The net inflow of financing funds increased to 265.3 billion CNY, up 300.4 billion CNY from the previous week[4]