Core Viewpoint - Domestic influenza activity is showing a significant upward trend, with an increase in reported ILI% and positive rates of influenza virus testing compared to the previous week [1] Group 1: Influenza Activity - Both northern and southern regions of China are experiencing a rise in influenza-like illness (ILI) cases and positive influenza virus test rates [1] - Influenza activity in countries like Japan and the UK remains high, surpassing levels seen in the same period in previous years [1] Group 2: Dominant Strains and Vaccination - The dominant strain in China is the A(H3N2) subtype, prompting updates to the influenza vaccine composition in the new vaccination guidelines [1] - The updated vaccination guidelines provide specific recommendations for vulnerable groups, including pregnant women and individuals allergic to eggs, along with the optimal vaccination timing [1] Group 3: Treatment and Recommendations - Vaccination is highlighted as the most effective method for preventing influenza and reducing severe cases [1] - The influenza diagnosis and treatment protocols are well-established, utilizing antigen and nucleic acid testing for early diagnosis, with treatment options including symptomatic care and antiviral therapy [1] - There is a recommendation to pay attention to influenza vaccines, respiratory medications, and related diagnostic products [1]

Core Insights - The report from Everbright Securities indicates a significant rise in influenza cases as temperatures drop in autumn 2025, with a notable increase in public and market attention towards flu prevention and treatment products [1][2] Group 1: Influenza Trends - The incidence of influenza-like illness (ILI) has increased, with southern provinces reporting an ILI rate of 4.6% in week 44 of 2025, up from 4.1% the previous week and higher than the same period in 2022 and 2024 [1] - Northern provinces reported an ILI rate of 5.1% in the same week, also showing an increase from 3.7% the previous week and higher than the rates in 2022, 2023, and 2024 [1][2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - **Influenza Vaccines**: The low penetration rate of flu vaccines in China presents a significant growth opportunity, especially with the expected increase in demand during the flu season. Companies to watch include Hualan Biological Engineering (301207.SZ), Baike Biological (688276.SH), and Jindike (688670.SH) [3] - **Virus Detection**: The demand for rapid and accurate diagnosis of respiratory infections is expected to boost the performance of companies in this sector. Recommended companies include Innotec (688253.SH), Shengxiang Biological (688289.SH), Botao Biological (688767.SH), and Wanfu Biological (300482.SZ) [4] - **Cold and Specialty Medicines**: The demand for cold medicines is anticipated to rise in Q4 2025, with potential sales and delivery improvements. Companies to consider include Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317.SZ), China Resources Sanjiu (000999.SZ), Kangyuan Pharmaceutical (600557.SH), and others [4]

Industry Overview - Recent flu activity in China has significantly increased, with most provinces entering the flu epidemic period [1] - The latest data from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention indicates that flu viruses have surpassed other respiratory viruses, becoming the most prevalent this autumn and winter [1] - Experts suggest that this year's flu season may start earlier and involve a higher number of infections, with the dominant strain being H3N2, which has lower immunity in the population compared to last year's H1N1 strain [1] Company Insights - Borui Pharmaceutical is an integrated enterprise specializing in raw materials and formulations, primarily supplying the domestic market with oseltamivir [3] - The company has established a complete industrial chain from starting materials to high-difficulty intermediates, and has obtained approvals for oseltamivir capsules and dry suspensions [3] - Core antiviral products of Borui include entecavir and oseltamivir [3] - Puluo Pharmaceutical offers oseltamivir and amantadine, which are effective against flu viruses [4]

Core Insights - Roche Pharmaceuticals China launched the innovative flu drug, Baloxavir Marboxil (速福达), at the 8th China International Import Expo, highlighting its latest clinical data on family transmission prevention and cross-border health protection solutions [1][10] Group 1: Flu Prevention and Treatment Ecosystem - Roche China collaborates with the China Population Welfare Foundation, medical experts, and digital platform partners to create a comprehensive flu prevention and treatment ecosystem covering prevention, detection, treatment, and assurance [4] - The global flu season, from October to March, sees 3 to 5 million severe cases and 290,000 to 650,000 deaths annually, with increased cross-border movement heightening flu transmission risks [6] Group 2: Vaccination and Public Awareness - In China, the flu vaccination rate remains low at 3.84% for the 2022-2023 season, significantly lower than in Europe and the U.S., indicating a need for improved public awareness and vaccination efforts [8] - The China Population Welfare Foundation initiated a global travel protection campaign for the flu season, aiming to enhance public understanding of flu prevention [6] Group 3: Baloxavir Marboxil Efficacy - Clinical data shows that the family treatment regimen of Baloxavir Marboxil can reduce household flu infection rates from 54.45% to 6.93% and shorten symptom duration from 1.14 days to 0.11 days [10] - The drug's single-dose oral administration improves adherence compared to multi-day regimens, addressing challenges in pediatric medication where 43% of children face difficulties [10][11] Group 4: Pediatric Considerations - Children are particularly vulnerable to flu, with longer illness duration and higher viral shedding, necessitating specialized formulations for effective treatment [10] - The Baloxavir Marboxil pediatric formulation is designed for ease of use, allowing precise dosing based on weight, thus enhancing the medication experience for children [11] Group 5: Commitment to Public Health - Roche emphasizes its commitment to public health and the "Healthy China 2030" initiative, aiming to enhance flu prevention and treatment through scientific advancements and collaboration with various sectors [11]

Core Points - The article emphasizes the importance of public awareness and protective measures against influenza as the flu season approaches [1] - A special influenza awareness campaign has been launched in collaboration with the People's Daily and the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention [1] - Experts in respiratory and infectious diseases provide practical health advice on prevention, treatment, and recovery from influenza [1] Prevention - Regular hand washing and maintaining good ventilation in crowded places are recommended to reduce virus transmission [10][13] - Timely vaccination against influenza is highlighted as a crucial preventive measure [18] Treatment - Early diagnosis and prompt medication are identified as key factors in effectively combating influenza [19] Recovery - The article suggests that maintaining a strong immune system is essential for recovery, with advice on nurturing the body and protecting respiratory health [6][16]

Core Viewpoint - The flu season in China is expected to arrive earlier this year, with a significant increase in infection rates anticipated due to the emergence of the H3N2 strain as the dominant virus, replacing last year's H1N1 strain [6][11][12]. Group 1: Flu Season and Virus Strain - The proportion of flu-like cases in emergency departments reached 3.3%, with a flu positivity rate of 5.8%, marking a 2.2% increase from the previous week [6][7]. - Experts predict that the flu season may start earlier this year, with the H3N2 strain expected to dominate, leading to a higher number of infections [6][12]. - The flu season's early onset is influenced by factors such as virus mutation, low immunity in the population against H3N2, and unusual climate conditions [12][13]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investment Opportunities - The early flu season signals a shift in market dynamics, prompting a surge in flu prevention-related stocks, with some stocks even hitting their daily limit [8]. - The flu vaccine market has seen a decline, with the market size dropping from 101 billion yuan in 2021 to an estimated 88 billion yuan in 2023, and further projected to decrease to 80 billion yuan in 2024 [14][24]. - In contrast, the antiviral drug market is expanding, with the market size nearing 20 billion yuan in 2023, driven by increased demand for antiviral treatments [14][25]. Group 3: Vaccine and Antiviral Drug Market - The penetration rate of flu vaccines in China is approximately 3%, significantly lower than the nearly 50% in Europe and the U.S., indicating a substantial growth opportunity in the vaccine market [22][24]. - The market for antiviral drugs, particularly neuraminidase inhibitors like Oseltamivir, is currently dominated by a few key players, with a notable increase in demand for new RNA polymerase inhibitors [25][26]. - The introduction of new RNA polymerase inhibitors, such as Marbofloxacin, is expected to reshape the market dynamics, enhancing patient willingness to use these medications due to their improved convenience and safety [26][28].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of Mashu Lashawei tablets (brand name: Yisuda) by Qingfeng Pharmaceutical Group represents a significant advancement in the treatment of influenza in China, providing a new therapeutic option for clinicians and addressing the challenges of influenza management [1][2]. Group 1: Product Overview - Mashu Lashawei tablets are the first domestically developed PA inhibitor class influenza innovative drug in China, demonstrating unique advantages in combating drug resistance [2]. - The clinical research data from the Phase III trial indicates that the drug effectively inhibits the RNA polymerase PA subunit of the influenza virus, allowing for rapid symptom relief with a single dose throughout the entire treatment course [2]. Group 2: Clinical Implications - The drug has shown good safety and tolerability, with an overall resistance mutation rate of less than 1%, significantly lower than international counterparts targeting the same mechanism [2]. - Current indications do not cover children under 12 years, who are a high-risk group for influenza, highlighting the urgency for further clinical research to include this demographic [2]. Group 3: Future Directions - Qingfeng Pharmaceutical Group plans to advance clinical research for children under 12, conduct resistance testing, and work on insurance directory inclusion to enhance drug accessibility [2].