碳酸锂价格波动

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宁德时代枧下窝采矿端确定停产!相关人士:短期未有复产计划
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-09 14:26
Group 1 - The recent news regarding the potential shutdown of major lithium mining operations has significantly impacted lithium carbonate prices [1] - On August 9, it was reported that the mining operations at the Jiangxiawo mining area of CATL will cease at midnight [1] - Starting from August 10, the mining activities at this site will be halted with no plans for a short-term resumption [1]
江西锂矿面临停产风险,碳酸锂下周会否突破8万?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-08-08 16:28
Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate futures prices is primarily driven by supply concerns related to mining permit compliance issues in Jiangxi, coupled with a seasonal recovery in downstream demand [1][2][3] Supply and Demand Changes - Supply side: Lithium carbonate weekly production decreased by 1,362 tons to 17,268 tons, but an overall increase of 3% to 84,200 tons is expected in August [2] - Demand side: There is a seasonal uptick in demand as downstream battery material manufacturers increase production plans, with rising inquiries due to the transition from off-peak to peak season [2] Market Sentiment and Price Volatility - Market sentiment is aggressive, with expectations of significant price fluctuations until clarity on the Jiangxi mining situation is achieved [2] - The recent price increase of 7.73% in lithium carbonate futures reflects heightened market activity and speculation [1] Inventory and Supply Chain Response - As of August 7, lithium carbonate weekly inventory stood at 142,400 tons, showing a slight increase, indicating ongoing inventory pressure [3] - Different strategies are being adopted across the supply chain, with cautious purchasing behavior observed among downstream material manufacturers due to sensitivity to current high lithium prices [3] Future Market Outlook - There are mixed views on the future trajectory of lithium carbonate prices, with some expecting a slight reduction in inventory while others remain cautious due to ongoing inventory concerns and upcoming financial disclosures from overseas mines [3]
主力合约涨超5% 碳酸锂又“强”了?
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-08-08 00:22
8月7日,碳酸锂期货震荡走高,午后涨幅进一步扩大,主力LC2511合约报收72300元/吨,上涨5.36%。 "当前,已临近时间节点,但该矿山的事情仍未有定论,因此盘面容易对此反复博弈。"创元期货分析师 余烁认为,近期波动大多源于信息层面博弈,消息扰动市场情绪,在官方明确公告之前,建议投资者理 性对待。陈婧也认为,在没有官方结论的情况下,市场仍有一定变数,建议投资者谨慎持仓。 业内人士认为,昨日碳酸锂期货上涨的核心原因是江西头部矿山采矿证即将到期的消息传出,以及临近 下游需求端备货旺季,需求端逐步回暖支撑。 富宝锂电分析师苏津仪向期货日报记者表示,当前江西头部矿山因采矿许可证到期续证的消息,虽暂无 官方文件证实,但仍有可能面临短期生产调整,从而引发供应收缩预期。近期,市场情绪或受此扰动, 推动碳酸锂价格中枢上移。 据悉,宜春市自然资源局日前下发相关通知,要求8家矿山编制储量核实报告。兴业期货分析师刘启跃 表示,依据通知,江西涉锂矿山需在9月30日前将矿种变更储量核实报告报送至宜春市自然资源局地质 勘查管理科,如要践行逐级审批机制,四季度相应材料需进一步递交给江西省自然资源厅及国务院自然 资源部,实际取证流程时 ...
碳酸锂日评:情绪切换速度快、波动大-20250801
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 05:07
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On July 31, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures declined, with trading volume at 521,849 lots (-271,060) and open interest at 229,368 lots (-43,385). The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium widened. On the cost side, the price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased, while the mica price also dropped. In terms of supply, last week's lithium carbonate production decreased. Regarding downstream demand, last week, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate decreased, while that of ternary materials increased. In July, the production schedule of lithium cobalt oxide decreased, and that of lithium manganate increased slightly. Last week, the production of power batteries increased. In terms of terminal demand, in June, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. In July, the production schedule of energy storage batteries increased. In terms of inventory, the registered warehouse receipts were 5,545 tons (-6,731), and the social inventory decreased. Smelters and other sectors reduced inventory, while downstream sectors increased inventory. Overall, commodity sentiment fluctuated greatly, and the exchange's restrictions cooled the market. It is expected that the short - term price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate. In operation, it is recommended to appropriately stop losses on put options [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Contract Closing Prices**: On July 31, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 68,000 yuan/ton, 68,280 yuan/ton, 68,600 yuan/ton, and 68,600 yuan/ton respectively, all showing a decline compared to previous dates [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 521,849 lots (-271,060), and the open interest was 229,368 lots (-43,385) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 5,545 tons (-6,731) [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread between near - month and continuous - one contracts was - 280 yuan/ton (+60), the spread between continuous - one and continuous - two contracts was - 320 yuan/ton (-340), and the spread between continuous - two and continuous - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton (0) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was 3,720 yuan/ton (+1,370) [1]. 3.2 Lithium Ore and Related Products - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average prices of various lithium ores such as spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone all decreased, with decreases ranging from 10 to 375 dollars/ton or yuan/ton [1]. - **Lithium Compound Prices**: The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 950 yuan/ton. The average prices of battery - grade coarse - particle and micro - powder type lithium hydroxide increased by 200 yuan/ton. The price of 99.95% domestic lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged at 53,250 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spreads of Lithium Compounds**: The spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 6,330 yuan/ton (+1,150), and the spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,100 yuan/ton (0) [1]. 3.3 Other Battery Materials - **Ternary Precursor and Material Prices**: The average prices of various ternary precursors and materials generally showed small changes, with increases or decreases ranging from 30 to 100 yuan/ton [1]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate Prices**: The average prices of power - type, mid - high - end energy - storage type, and low - end energy - storage type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 305, 330, and 330 yuan/ton respectively [1][2]. - **Electrolyte Prices**: The average prices of electrolytes for ternary power, lithium iron phosphate, and manganese acid lithium remained unchanged, while the prices of electrolytes for cobalt acid lithium and other types were 0 [1]. - **Cobalt Spot Prices**: The average prices of electrolytic cobalt, cobalt sulfate, and tricobalt tetroxide increased by 5,500, 125, and 150 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.4 Inventory - **SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The total inventory was 141,726 tons (-1,444), with smelters' inventory at 21,958 tons (-3,427), downstream inventory at 45,888 tons (+3,073), and other inventory at 43,880 tons (-1,090) [1].
宁德时代:目前公司宜春锂矿项目生产经营正常
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-07-31 11:14
证券日报网讯宁德时代(300750)7月31日发布公告,在公司回答调研者提问时表示,目前公司宜春锂 矿项目生产经营正常,公司已按要求提前向宜春市自然资源局递交了延续申请材料,经市、省两级收件 确认延续登记要件齐全,内容完整,目前延续申请待批复。近期碳酸锂价格有一些波动,但本质上价格 是由供需来决定的。公司有锂矿资源战略储备,也与供应商签订了长期协议,能够较好地应对碳酸锂价 格的波动。 ...
碳酸锂期货吨价重回8万元 “家中有矿”上市公司率先受益
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-07-27 15:43
Group 1 - The price of lithium carbonate has surged back to 80,520 yuan/ton, reaching a five-month high due to supply contraction expectations [1] - The Central Economic Committee's recent meeting emphasized the orderly exit of backward production capacity, which has led to production cuts in various industries, including lithium [1] - The demand for lithium carbonate remains strong despite the traditional off-season, with a 23% year-on-year increase in retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in early July [2] Group 2 - Companies with lithium resources are expected to see improved performance, as indicated by Tianqi Lithium's projected net profit of 0 to 155 million yuan for the first half of the year, reversing losses [2] - Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium is expected to report a net loss of 300 million to 550 million yuan, but the loss is narrowing due to improved investment income and lithium salt business [2] - Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co., Ltd. has an annual lithium carbonate production capacity of 40,000 tons and is advancing a 40,000-ton lithium salt integration project [3] Group 3 - Hunan Keli Yuan New Energy Co., Ltd. has fully acquired four underground lithium mines in Yichun, with estimated ore reserves of 12 million tons, equivalent to about 400,000 tons of lithium carbonate [3] - The discovery of a super-large lithium deposit in Hunan Province has revealed 490 million tons of lithium ore, with 1.31 million tons of lithium oxide resources [3] - The industry is expected to shift from price competition to value competition, favoring companies with technological advantages and cost control capabilities [3]
百亿锂电上市企业筹划易主!
起点锂电· 2025-07-26 06:29
Core Viewpoint - Jiangte Motor (002176.SZ) is undergoing a potential change in control, which may impact its operations and strategic direction, amidst ongoing challenges in the lithium market [2][4]. Group 1: Control Change and Company Announcements - On July 21, Jiangte Motor announced a stock suspension due to plans for a change in control, with no formal agreements signed yet [2][4]. - The company’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Yichun Yinli New Energy, will initiate a comprehensive production halt for maintenance starting July 25, lasting approximately 26 days [4][6]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Context - As of the suspension date, Jiangte Motor's total market capitalization reached 13.207 billion yuan [3]. - The company has faced continuous losses in 2023 and 2024, with projected revenues of 2.103 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of 24.86%, and a net loss of 319 million yuan [8]. - The lithium market has seen a significant drop in carbonate prices, impacting Jiangte Motor's profitability, despite growth in its motor segment [8][9]. Group 3: Industry Position and Resource Control - Jiangte Motor is a leading player in lithium extraction from mica, holding over 100 million tons of lithium resources [7]. - The company has been actively acquiring mining rights and enhancing production capabilities in Yichun, known as "Asia's Lithium Capital" [7]. - In 2020, Jiangte Motor attempted to bring in Ganfeng Lithium as a major shareholder but failed to reach an agreement [6]. Group 4: Strategic Responses to Market Conditions - The maintenance halt is aimed at reducing production costs and ensuring the safe operation of production equipment, reflecting a common strategy among leading firms to optimize operations during market downturns [6][9]. - Recent trends indicate a potential rebound in lithium carbonate prices, which may provide some support to the market, although uncertainties remain for companies like Jiangte Motor [9].
碳酸锂数据日报-20250725
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 06:43
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Affected by rumors from the supply side of Jiangxi mines, the price of lithium carbonate has rapidly soared. At the current price level, the acceptance of the spot market by downstream buyers is low, resulting in a small actual trading volume. In the short term, market sentiment is strong with frequent speculations, and the pricing weight of fundamental contradictions and hedging pressure may increase. Industrial players can consider hedging at high prices [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 70,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 100 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 68,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 100 yuan [1] - The closing prices and daily increases of lithium carbonate futures contracts are as follows: Li2508 at 76,500 yuan/ton with a 5.84% increase; Li2509 at 76,680 yuan/ton with a 7.21% increase; Li2510 at 75,460 yuan/ton with a 6.1% increase; Li2511 at 75,000 yuan/ton with a 6.17% increase; Li2512 at 74,680 yuan/ton with a 6.35% increase [1] Lithium Ore - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li2O: 5.5% - 6%) is 764 yuan, with a daily increase of 14 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1080 yuan, with a daily increase of 40 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1655 yuan, with a daily increase of 50 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) is 5845 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) is 6800 yuan, with a daily increase of 475 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,690 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 25 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 143,450 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 300 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 115,945 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,875 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 200 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1650 yuan/ton, with no change; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 6130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7200 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 1040 yuan/ton, an increase of 520 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 143,170 tons, an increase of 550 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 55,385 tons, a decrease of 2654 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 42,815 tons, an increase of 1544 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 44,970 tons, an increase of 1660 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 11,654 tons, an increase of 900 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 68,690 yuan, and the profit is 910 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 74,022 yuan, and the profit is - 6048 yuan [3] Company News - Jiangte Motor's subsidiary, Yichun Yinli, plans to conduct equipment maintenance on its production line on July 25, 2025, with an estimated maintenance time of about 26 days [3]
突迎强监管!锂矿概念股集体大涨,全球锂价又要疯?
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-07-18 03:33
Group 1 - The lithium mining sector experienced significant fluctuations on July 18, with companies like Shengxin Lithium Energy and Jinyuan Co. hitting the daily limit up, while others like Zhongmin Resources and Tianqi Lithium also saw notable gains [1][2] - The main driver behind this market movement was a sudden announcement from Zangge Mining, which stated that its subsidiary was ordered to halt lithium resource development activities due to compliance issues [3][7] - The announcement highlighted a tightening of local government regulations regarding lithium resource development, signaling potential challenges for the industry [7] Group 2 - Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, referred to as the "lithium mining twins," both released their half-year performance forecasts, with Tianqi expecting a net profit of 0 to 1.55 billion yuan, a significant recovery from a loss of 5.206 billion yuan in the same period last year [8] - Ganfeng Lithium, on the other hand, projected a net loss of 300 million to 550 million yuan, although this was an improvement from a loss of 760 million yuan in the previous year [8][9] - The differing strategies of the two companies in response to lithium price fluctuations were noted, with Tianqi adjusting its pricing mechanism to a monthly basis, while Ganfeng focused on expanding its battery business [10] Group 3 - The lithium carbonate market is currently facing an oversupply situation, with prices continuing to decline, which has led to inventory pressures [10] - Recent data indicated that the price of lithium carbonate futures had reached a new high of 70,980 yuan per ton, marking a 4.32% increase [2][11] - The supply-demand dynamics are shifting, with rising costs for lithium raw materials and a decrease in inventory levels, suggesting potential support for prices in the near term [11][12] Group 4 - Policy measures are being implemented to support the lithium carbonate market, including the elimination of inefficient production capacities and government stockpiling of industrial-grade lithium carbonate [12][13] - The overall sentiment in the market is currently characterized by a rebound phase driven by market emotions, although the reality of weak fundamentals may limit significant price increases [13]
碳酸锂数据日报-20250718
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 03:02
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Supply disruptions have boosted market sentiment, leading to an increase in lithium carbonate futures prices. However, the actual impact on the fundamentals is limited, with supply increasing and demand remaining stable. Short - term downstream replenishment is large, but the subsequent replenishment space may be limited, and the support for prices may weaken. In the short term, driven by market sentiment, lithium carbonate futures prices may fluctuate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 64,950 yuan/ton, and SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 63,350 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1,600 yuan/ton, with no change [1][2]. - Futures contracts: Lithium carbonate 2508 closed at 68,060 yuan/ton, up 2.1%; 2509 at 67,960 yuan/ton, up 2.47%; 2510 at 67,580 yuan/ton, up 2.3%; 2511 at 67,180 yuan/ton, up 2.07%; 2512 at 67,500 yuan/ton, up 2.03% [1]. Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China, Li2O: 5.5% - 6%) is 693 dollars/ton, with a change of 8 dollars/ton. Lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 910 dollars/ton, with a change of 20 dollars/ton; (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1465 dollars/ton, with a change of 15 dollars/ton. Phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) is 4670 dollars/ton; (Li2O: 7% - 8%) is 5535 dollars/ton [1][2]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 31,345 yuan/ton, the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 142,650 yuan/ton, the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 115,195 yuan/ton, and the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,115 yuan/ton with no change [2]. Price Spreads - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1,600 yuan/ton, with no change; the difference between battery - grade and the main contract is - 3,010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,540 yuan/ton; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 480 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 142,620 tons, an increase of 1,827 tons; smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 58,039 tons, a decrease of 559 tons; downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 41,271 tons, an increase of 506 tons; other inventory (weekly, tons) is 43,310 tons, an increase of 1,880 tons; registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 10,239 tons, a decrease of 416 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 64,189 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 126 yuan/ton; the cash cost of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is 69,638 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 7,116 yuan/ton [3]. Company News - On the afternoon of July 17, 2025, Zangge Mining announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary, Golmud Zangge Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd., received a notice from the Haixi Natural Resources Bureau and the Haixi Salt Lake Administration on July 16, 2025, requiring it to stop illegal lithium resource development activities immediately, rectify actively, and improve legal procedures for resources. It can only resume production after applying and getting approval [3].