新华财经北京8月11日电（记者王小璐）在宁德时代宜春项目枧下窝矿区停产影响下，碳酸锂期货主力 合约11日开盘即涨停，报81000元／吨。相关锂矿股同样受到提振，天齐锂业、盛新锂能等概念股开盘 一度涨停。 具体来看需求端，当前碳酸锂需求端正呈现出"淡季不淡"的特征，对其价格也形成一定支撑。根据鑫椤 锂电发布的锂电产业链8月预排产数据，样本企业中电池排产110.3GWh，环比增长1.5%。从终端需求来 看，根据中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分会数据，7月全国新能源乘用车厂商批发销量约118万 辆，同比增长25%，环比下降4%。2025年1-7月累计批发销量763万辆，同比增长35%。 陈婧预计，等到"金九银十"传统旺季来临，碳酸锂下游电池排产数据预计保持环比平稳小幅增长。 矿山政策变化成为最大风险 在枧下窝矿区停产带来的利多影响下，市场仍存在担忧，若国内其他矿区增产及海外进口量增长，是否 会抵消该矿区停产的供应量，从而对碳酸锂价格形成压制。 市场分析人士认为，该矿区停产后，短期内将对碳酸锂形成明显提振，而长期来看，随着碳酸锂价格上 涨，国内其他项目及进口端有望提供新的供应增量，碳酸锂或将再度承压。对于投资者而 ...

"一会儿传言说停，一会儿又说没停，这些'小作文'太让人揪心了。我们干采购的，不关注行情肯定不 行，要是没及时察觉价格变动，错过了低价采购的机会，会被领导狠狠地批评一顿。"一家头部材料厂 的采购负责人李欢（化名）无奈地告诉期货日报记者，当市场行情随着"小作文"波动时，产业企业 很"受伤"。 作为下游材料厂的采购人员，李欢的工作是依据原材料价格变化制定相关采购策略。此前，他踩准节奏 选择了合适的价格进行套保，但几天后市场情绪又因"小作文"出现变化，价格朝着反方向走。 "作为产业企业，我们必须严格遵循套保规则，如果频繁地调整买卖策略，就有投机交易的嫌疑，可能 被财务和审计问责。"李欢说。 当下，大多数产业企业也面临和李欢一样的困境。碳酸锂价格被"小作文"牵着鼻子走，确实让整个行业 都陷入进退两难的境地。 "我们真切地希望'小作文'能少一些，碳酸锂价格在合理区间平稳运行。"李欢说。 期货日报记者留意到，过去几周，江西大厂矿区（宁德时代枧下窝矿区）停产的消息备受关注，该消息 也成为碳酸锂价格波动的核心原因之一。 从供应端来看，张维鑫认为，尽管碳酸锂价格在上半年持续下跌，但供给并未有效出清，供给弹性仍较 高。"当前，碳酸 ...

Group 1 - The recent news regarding the potential shutdown of major lithium mining operations has significantly impacted lithium carbonate prices [1] - On August 9, it was reported that the mining operations at the Jiangxiawo mining area of CATL will cease at midnight [1] - Starting from August 10, the mining activities at this site will be halted with no plans for a short-term resumption [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate futures prices is primarily driven by supply concerns related to mining permit compliance issues in Jiangxi, coupled with a seasonal recovery in downstream demand [1][2][3] Supply and Demand Changes - Supply side: Lithium carbonate weekly production decreased by 1,362 tons to 17,268 tons, but an overall increase of 3% to 84,200 tons is expected in August [2] - Demand side: There is a seasonal uptick in demand as downstream battery material manufacturers increase production plans, with rising inquiries due to the transition from off-peak to peak season [2] Market Sentiment and Price Volatility - Market sentiment is aggressive, with expectations of significant price fluctuations until clarity on the Jiangxi mining situation is achieved [2] - The recent price increase of 7.73% in lithium carbonate futures reflects heightened market activity and speculation [1] Inventory and Supply Chain Response - As of August 7, lithium carbonate weekly inventory stood at 142,400 tons, showing a slight increase, indicating ongoing inventory pressure [3] - Different strategies are being adopted across the supply chain, with cautious purchasing behavior observed among downstream material manufacturers due to sensitivity to current high lithium prices [3] Future Market Outlook - There are mixed views on the future trajectory of lithium carbonate prices, with some expecting a slight reduction in inventory while others remain cautious due to ongoing inventory concerns and upcoming financial disclosures from overseas mines [3]

8月7日，碳酸锂期货震荡走高，午后涨幅进一步扩大，主力LC2511合约报收72300元/吨，上涨5.36%。 "当前，已临近时间节点，但该矿山的事情仍未有定论，因此盘面容易对此反复博弈。"创元期货分析师 余烁认为，近期波动大多源于信息层面博弈，消息扰动市场情绪，在官方明确公告之前，建议投资者理 性对待。陈婧也认为，在没有官方结论的情况下，市场仍有一定变数，建议投资者谨慎持仓。 业内人士认为，昨日碳酸锂期货上涨的核心原因是江西头部矿山采矿证即将到期的消息传出，以及临近 下游需求端备货旺季，需求端逐步回暖支撑。 富宝锂电分析师苏津仪向期货日报记者表示，当前江西头部矿山因采矿许可证到期续证的消息，虽暂无 官方文件证实，但仍有可能面临短期生产调整，从而引发供应收缩预期。近期，市场情绪或受此扰动， 推动碳酸锂价格中枢上移。 据悉，宜春市自然资源局日前下发相关通知，要求8家矿山编制储量核实报告。兴业期货分析师刘启跃 表示，依据通知，江西涉锂矿山需在9月30日前将矿种变更储量核实报告报送至宜春市自然资源局地质 勘查管理科，如要践行逐级审批机制，四季度相应材料需进一步递交给江西省自然资源厅及国务院自然 资源部，实际取证流程时 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On July 31, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures declined, with trading volume at 521,849 lots (-271,060) and open interest at 229,368 lots (-43,385). The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium widened. On the cost side, the price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased, while the mica price also dropped. In terms of supply, last week's lithium carbonate production decreased. Regarding downstream demand, last week, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate decreased, while that of ternary materials increased. In July, the production schedule of lithium cobalt oxide decreased, and that of lithium manganate increased slightly. Last week, the production of power batteries increased. In terms of terminal demand, in June, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. In July, the production schedule of energy storage batteries increased. In terms of inventory, the registered warehouse receipts were 5,545 tons (-6,731), and the social inventory decreased. Smelters and other sectors reduced inventory, while downstream sectors increased inventory. Overall, commodity sentiment fluctuated greatly, and the exchange's restrictions cooled the market. It is expected that the short - term price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate. In operation, it is recommended to appropriately stop losses on put options [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Contract Closing Prices**: On July 31, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 68,000 yuan/ton, 68,280 yuan/ton, 68,600 yuan/ton, and 68,600 yuan/ton respectively, all showing a decline compared to previous dates [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 521,849 lots (-271,060), and the open interest was 229,368 lots (-43,385) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 5,545 tons (-6,731) [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread between near - month and continuous - one contracts was - 280 yuan/ton (+60), the spread between continuous - one and continuous - two contracts was - 320 yuan/ton (-340), and the spread between continuous - two and continuous - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton (0) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was 3,720 yuan/ton (+1,370) [1]. 3.2 Lithium Ore and Related Products - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average prices of various lithium ores such as spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone all decreased, with decreases ranging from 10 to 375 dollars/ton or yuan/ton [1]. - **Lithium Compound Prices**: The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 950 yuan/ton. The average prices of battery - grade coarse - particle and micro - powder type lithium hydroxide increased by 200 yuan/ton. The price of 99.95% domestic lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged at 53,250 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spreads of Lithium Compounds**: The spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 6,330 yuan/ton (+1,150), and the spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,100 yuan/ton (0) [1]. 3.3 Other Battery Materials - **Ternary Precursor and Material Prices**: The average prices of various ternary precursors and materials generally showed small changes, with increases or decreases ranging from 30 to 100 yuan/ton [1]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate Prices**: The average prices of power - type, mid - high - end energy - storage type, and low - end energy - storage type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 305, 330, and 330 yuan/ton respectively [1][2]. - **Electrolyte Prices**: The average prices of electrolytes for ternary power, lithium iron phosphate, and manganese acid lithium remained unchanged, while the prices of electrolytes for cobalt acid lithium and other types were 0 [1]. - **Cobalt Spot Prices**: The average prices of electrolytic cobalt, cobalt sulfate, and tricobalt tetroxide increased by 5,500, 125, and 150 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.4 Inventory - **SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The total inventory was 141,726 tons (-1,444), with smelters' inventory at 21,958 tons (-3,427), downstream inventory at 45,888 tons (+3,073), and other inventory at 43,880 tons (-1,090) [1].

证券日报网讯宁德时代（300750）7月31日发布公告，在公司回答调研者提问时表示，目前公司宜春锂 矿项目生产经营正常，公司已按要求提前向宜春市自然资源局递交了延续申请材料，经市、省两级收件 确认延续登记要件齐全，内容完整，目前延续申请待批复。近期碳酸锂价格有一些波动，但本质上价格 是由供需来决定的。公司有锂矿资源战略储备，也与供应商签订了长期协议，能够较好地应对碳酸锂价 格的波动。 ...

Group 1 - The price of lithium carbonate has surged back to 80,520 yuan/ton, reaching a five-month high due to supply contraction expectations [1] - The Central Economic Committee's recent meeting emphasized the orderly exit of backward production capacity, which has led to production cuts in various industries, including lithium [1] - The demand for lithium carbonate remains strong despite the traditional off-season, with a 23% year-on-year increase in retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in early July [2] Group 2 - Companies with lithium resources are expected to see improved performance, as indicated by Tianqi Lithium's projected net profit of 0 to 155 million yuan for the first half of the year, reversing losses [2] - Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium is expected to report a net loss of 300 million to 550 million yuan, but the loss is narrowing due to improved investment income and lithium salt business [2] - Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co., Ltd. has an annual lithium carbonate production capacity of 40,000 tons and is advancing a 40,000-ton lithium salt integration project [3] Group 3 - Hunan Keli Yuan New Energy Co., Ltd. has fully acquired four underground lithium mines in Yichun, with estimated ore reserves of 12 million tons, equivalent to about 400,000 tons of lithium carbonate [3] - The discovery of a super-large lithium deposit in Hunan Province has revealed 490 million tons of lithium ore, with 1.31 million tons of lithium oxide resources [3] - The industry is expected to shift from price competition to value competition, favoring companies with technological advantages and cost control capabilities [3]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangte Motor (002176.SZ) is undergoing a potential change in control, which may impact its operations and strategic direction, amidst ongoing challenges in the lithium market [2][4]. Group 1: Control Change and Company Announcements - On July 21, Jiangte Motor announced a stock suspension due to plans for a change in control, with no formal agreements signed yet [2][4]. - The company’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Yichun Yinli New Energy, will initiate a comprehensive production halt for maintenance starting July 25, lasting approximately 26 days [4][6]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Context - As of the suspension date, Jiangte Motor's total market capitalization reached 13.207 billion yuan [3]. - The company has faced continuous losses in 2023 and 2024, with projected revenues of 2.103 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of 24.86%, and a net loss of 319 million yuan [8]. - The lithium market has seen a significant drop in carbonate prices, impacting Jiangte Motor's profitability, despite growth in its motor segment [8][9]. Group 3: Industry Position and Resource Control - Jiangte Motor is a leading player in lithium extraction from mica, holding over 100 million tons of lithium resources [7]. - The company has been actively acquiring mining rights and enhancing production capabilities in Yichun, known as "Asia's Lithium Capital" [7]. - In 2020, Jiangte Motor attempted to bring in Ganfeng Lithium as a major shareholder but failed to reach an agreement [6]. Group 4: Strategic Responses to Market Conditions - The maintenance halt is aimed at reducing production costs and ensuring the safe operation of production equipment, reflecting a common strategy among leading firms to optimize operations during market downturns [6][9]. - Recent trends indicate a potential rebound in lithium carbonate prices, which may provide some support to the market, although uncertainties remain for companies like Jiangte Motor [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Affected by rumors from the supply side of Jiangxi mines, the price of lithium carbonate has rapidly soared. At the current price level, the acceptance of the spot market by downstream buyers is low, resulting in a small actual trading volume. In the short term, market sentiment is strong with frequent speculations, and the pricing weight of fundamental contradictions and hedging pressure may increase. Industrial players can consider hedging at high prices [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 70,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 100 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 68,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 100 yuan [1] - The closing prices and daily increases of lithium carbonate futures contracts are as follows: Li2508 at 76,500 yuan/ton with a 5.84% increase; Li2509 at 76,680 yuan/ton with a 7.21% increase; Li2510 at 75,460 yuan/ton with a 6.1% increase; Li2511 at 75,000 yuan/ton with a 6.17% increase; Li2512 at 74,680 yuan/ton with a 6.35% increase [1] Lithium Ore - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li2O: 5.5% - 6%) is 764 yuan, with a daily increase of 14 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1080 yuan, with a daily increase of 40 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1655 yuan, with a daily increase of 50 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) is 5845 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) is 6800 yuan, with a daily increase of 475 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,690 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 25 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 143,450 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 300 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 115,945 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,875 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 200 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1650 yuan/ton, with no change; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 6130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7200 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 1040 yuan/ton, an increase of 520 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 143,170 tons, an increase of 550 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 55,385 tons, a decrease of 2654 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 42,815 tons, an increase of 1544 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 44,970 tons, an increase of 1660 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 11,654 tons, an increase of 900 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 68,690 yuan, and the profit is 910 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 74,022 yuan, and the profit is - 6048 yuan [3] Company News - Jiangte Motor's subsidiary, Yichun Yinli, plans to conduct equipment maintenance on its production line on July 25, 2025, with an estimated maintenance time of about 26 days [3]