Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that staff forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are lower than estimates made during the March meeting [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Forecasts - Staff predictions for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downwards compared to earlier estimates from March [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the need for the Federal Reserve to improve its communication and forecasting methods regarding economic predictions and monetary policy responses, suggesting that a multi-scenario approach would enhance flexibility and market understanding [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Practices - The Federal Reserve currently releases four Economic Projections Summaries (SEP) annually, which include forecasts from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members on economic growth, unemployment, inflation, and short-term interest rates [1]. - Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke argues that the Fed should adopt a quarterly monetary policy report similar to other central banks, which would provide consistent economic forecasts and alternative scenarios [1][2]. Group 2: Proposed Changes and Benefits - Bernanke believes that a multi-scenario model would allow the Fed to adjust more swiftly when economic developments deviate from central forecasts, thereby minimizing market disruption [2]. - The article suggests that if the Fed had prepared for higher-than-expected inflation in 2021, it could have adjusted its policies more effectively without causing market turmoil [2]. Group 3: Criticism and Challenges - Some, like former monetary policy chief Bill English, argue that releasing two sets of forecasts could create confusion and that the public pays little attention to staff-generated alternative scenarios [2][3]. - English also points out that staff reports do not dictate monetary policy, thus offering limited insights into the Fed's responses [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the challenges, the article anticipates that Fed Chair Jerome Powell may propose the release of staff forecasts later this year, although the complexity of implementation may delay this until after Powell's term ends in May 2026 [4]. - The article emphasizes the urgency for the Fed to catch up with other central banks in terms of communication and forecasting practices [4].

Core Viewpoint - The White House tax proposal complicates economic forecasts according to Federal Reserve's Harmack [1] Group 1 - The tax legislation introduced by the White House has implications for economic predictions, making them more complex [1]

欧洲央行管委内格尔：预计6月份工作人员将做出新的预测，但我们不知道关税对通胀和经济的确切影 响。 ...

欧盟委员会执行副主席东布罗夫斯基斯：欧盟将于下个月更新经济预测，初步估算显示关税对欧元区经 济的影响约为0.2%。 ...