中国铝业（601600.SH）深度报告 潜龙在渊 2025 年 03 月 20 日 ➢ 风险提示：电解铝需求不及预期，氧化铝价格下降超预期，公司项目进展不 及预期。 ➢ 铝产业龙头，一体化布局优势明显。公司建立了从上游矿产资源开采，中游 冶炼至下游铝材加工的一体化生产体系，形成了核心主产业（铝土矿、氧化铝、 电解铝）+核心子产业（高纯铝、铝合金、精细氧化铝）+配套产业（碳素、煤炭、 电力）＋协同产业（贸易、物流、物资）＋绿色产业（赤泥利用、再生铝、电解 危废协同处置）的"3×5"产业发展格局，是全球铝行业唯一拥有完整产业链的 国际化大型铝业公司。 ➢ 铝土矿：重视资源布局，几内亚铝土矿持续放量。公司海内外铝土矿资源储 量丰富。截至 2023 年末，国内端，公司铝土矿储量 1.57 亿吨；海外端，公司在 几内亚投资建设的 Boffa 项目矿山拥有 17.61 亿吨资源量，是中国在几内亚投资 的最大铝土矿项目，Boffa 矿山品位较高，剩余可采年限超过 60 年，目前该项 目产量逐年攀升，2023 年产量达到 1425 万吨。 ➢ 氧化铝：铝土矿自给率达到 60%左右。截至 2023 年末，公司共计拥有 2226 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company is a leader in the aluminum industry with a significant integrated layout advantage, possessing a complete industrial chain from upstream mineral resource extraction to downstream aluminum processing [1][11]. - The company has rich bauxite resources, with domestic reserves of 157 million tons and overseas reserves of 1.761 billion tons in Guinea, ensuring stable raw material supply for alumina production [1][24]. - The acquisition of Yun Aluminum has enhanced the company's position in the green aluminum sector, with the green electricity ratio in electrolytic aluminum production reaching 45.2% in 2023 [2][41]. - The company is expected to achieve substantial net profits in the coming years, with projected net profits of 12.717 billion yuan, 15.377 billion yuan, and 17.414 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][47]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is the only international large aluminum company with a complete industrial chain, covering bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and various aluminum products [11][22]. - It has established a "3×5" industrial development pattern, integrating core main industries, core sub-industries, supporting industries, collaborative industries, and green industries [1][22]. 2. Bauxite and Alumina - The company has a self-sufficiency rate of approximately 60% for alumina, with a total alumina production capacity of 22.26 million tons as of the end of 2023 [2][29]. - The alumina production is supported by abundant bauxite resources, ensuring stable raw material supply [2][29]. 3. Electrolytic Aluminum - The company has significantly increased its electrolytic aluminum production from 3.86 million tons in 2021 to 6.79 million tons in 2023, aided by the acquisition of Yun Aluminum [2][41]. - The electrolytic aluminum production is primarily located in regions with abundant coal and electricity resources, enhancing production efficiency [41][42]. 4. Energy Sector - The company has a promising outlook in the renewable energy sector, with steady growth in installed capacity for wind and solar energy [3][35]. - Coal production has also seen a steady increase, with a total coal output of 13.05 million tons in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 21.51% [3][32]. 5. Financial Forecast and Investment Advice - The company is expected to achieve significant net profit growth in the coming years, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 10, 9, and 8 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 [4][47]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong resource security and operational flexibility, making it a favorable investment opportunity as aluminum prices rise [4][47].