Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [2][5]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated significant cost control effectiveness and is expected to release production capacity, which is promising for future growth [2][5]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 15.328 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.084 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.51% [3][5]. - The company’s integrated development in the aluminum industry chain has led to stable cost control, with the average selling price of self-produced electrolytic aluminum at approximately 20,250 yuan/ton (including tax), up about 2.8% year-on-year [5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 7.403 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.37%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.59%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.026 billion yuan, down 24.2% year-on-year and 3.02% quarter-on-quarter [5]. - The company produced 585,400 tons of electrolytic aluminum, remaining stable year-on-year, and 1,199,900 tons of alumina, an increase of 9.76% year-on-year [5]. Production and Sales - The company’s main products saw robust production and sales, with electrolytic aluminum external sales increasing by approximately 2% year-on-year and alumina external sales increasing by approximately 7% year-on-year [5]. - The company is advancing a project to enhance the green low-carbon efficiency of 140,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum, with plans to commence production by the end of 2025 [5]. Future Earnings Forecast - The forecasted earnings per share for 2025 and 2026 are 1.03 yuan and 1.21 yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 7.36 and 6.24 times based on the closing price on August 29 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities projects that China Hongqiao's net profit attributable to shareholders will grow steadily from 2025 to 2027, driven by supply constraints and favorable policies in the aluminum industry [1][2]. Group 1: Profit Forecast and Growth - The expected net profits for China Hongqiao from 2025 to 2027 are 227.59 billion, 261.69 billion, and 289.69 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 1.73%, 14.98%, and 10.70% respectively [1]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, estimated at approximately 123.59 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of around 35% [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The aluminum price is expected to rise due to supply constraints, with limited new capacity for electrolytic aluminum in the future, while demand from sectors like power grids and electric vehicles remains resilient [1]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is nearing its limit, leading to a gradual emergence of supply-demand gaps that will drive up aluminum prices [1]. Group 3: Production Capacity and Integration - As of March 2025, the company has a total electrolytic aluminum capacity of 645.9 million tons, with recent increases in its equity capacity through acquisitions [3]. - The company has increased its equity capacity in Yunnan by 48.36 million tons, bringing its total capacity in the region to 193.44 million tons [3]. Group 4: Dividend and Valuation - The company is positioned to benefit from the upward cycle in aluminum prices, with projected dividends of 54.6 billion and 138.7 billion yuan for 2023 and 2024, respectively, and dividend payout ratios of 47.6% and 62.0% [4]. - The estimated dividend yield for 2025 is projected at 8.0%, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.5 times, indicating attractive valuation and yield potential [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see significant growth in net profit from 2025 to 2027, driven by rising aluminum prices and improved sales performance in electrolytic aluminum and alumina products [1][2]. Financial Projections - Projected net profits for China Hongqiao from 2025 to 2027 are 22.759 billion, 26.169 billion, and 28.969 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 1.73%, 14.98%, and 10.70% respectively [1]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.45, 2.82, and 3.12 yuan per share for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 6.9, 6.0, and 5.4 times [1]. Profit Growth Drivers - The company's net profit for the first half of 2025 is expected to increase by approximately 35% year-on-year, reaching around 12.359 billion yuan, following a net profit of 9.155 billion yuan in 2024 [1][2]. - The increase in profit is attributed to higher sales volumes and prices of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, with the average price of electrolytic aluminum rising by 2.51% to 20,297 yuan per ton [2]. Industry Dynamics - The alumina price has significantly decreased in 2025, dropping from 5,683 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to 3,175 yuan per ton by June 23, 2025, which may stabilize profits in the alumina segment [3]. - The average profit for alumina in the first half of 2025 is projected to be 302 yuan per ton, a decrease of 430 yuan per ton year-on-year, but the declining trend in alumina prices is expected to slow down [3]. Capacity Expansion - The company is advancing its capacity replacement strategy, with the Yunnan Wenshan project having completed an initial capacity of 1.074 million tons per year and a second phase of 950,000 tons nearing completion [4]. - The Yunnan Honghe project, which began construction in August 2023, is planned to have a capacity of 1.93 million tons per year, with an initial production line expected to be completed by the end of June 2025 [4].

中国铝业（601600.SH）深度报告 潜龙在渊 2025 年 03 月 20 日 ➢ 风险提示：电解铝需求不及预期，氧化铝价格下降超预期，公司项目进展不 及预期。 ➢ 铝产业龙头，一体化布局优势明显。公司建立了从上游矿产资源开采，中游 冶炼至下游铝材加工的一体化生产体系，形成了核心主产业（铝土矿、氧化铝、 电解铝）+核心子产业（高纯铝、铝合金、精细氧化铝）+配套产业（碳素、煤炭、 电力）＋协同产业（贸易、物流、物资）＋绿色产业（赤泥利用、再生铝、电解 危废协同处置）的"3×5"产业发展格局，是全球铝行业唯一拥有完整产业链的 国际化大型铝业公司。 ➢ 铝土矿：重视资源布局，几内亚铝土矿持续放量。公司海内外铝土矿资源储 量丰富。截至 2023 年末，国内端，公司铝土矿储量 1.57 亿吨；海外端，公司在 几内亚投资建设的 Boffa 项目矿山拥有 17.61 亿吨资源量，是中国在几内亚投资 的最大铝土矿项目，Boffa 矿山品位较高，剩余可采年限超过 60 年，目前该项 目产量逐年攀升，2023 年产量达到 1425 万吨。 ➢ 氧化铝：铝土矿自给率达到 60%左右。截至 2023 年末，公司共计拥有 2226 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company is a leader in the aluminum industry with a significant integrated layout advantage, possessing a complete industrial chain from upstream mineral resource extraction to downstream aluminum processing [1][11]. - The company has rich bauxite resources, with domestic reserves of 157 million tons and overseas reserves of 1.761 billion tons in Guinea, ensuring stable raw material supply for alumina production [1][24]. - The acquisition of Yun Aluminum has enhanced the company's position in the green aluminum sector, with the green electricity ratio in electrolytic aluminum production reaching 45.2% in 2023 [2][41]. - The company is expected to achieve substantial net profits in the coming years, with projected net profits of 12.717 billion yuan, 15.377 billion yuan, and 17.414 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][47]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is the only international large aluminum company with a complete industrial chain, covering bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and various aluminum products [11][22]. - It has established a "3×5" industrial development pattern, integrating core main industries, core sub-industries, supporting industries, collaborative industries, and green industries [1][22]. 2. Bauxite and Alumina - The company has a self-sufficiency rate of approximately 60% for alumina, with a total alumina production capacity of 22.26 million tons as of the end of 2023 [2][29]. - The alumina production is supported by abundant bauxite resources, ensuring stable raw material supply [2][29]. 3. Electrolytic Aluminum - The company has significantly increased its electrolytic aluminum production from 3.86 million tons in 2021 to 6.79 million tons in 2023, aided by the acquisition of Yun Aluminum [2][41]. - The electrolytic aluminum production is primarily located in regions with abundant coal and electricity resources, enhancing production efficiency [41][42]. 4. Energy Sector - The company has a promising outlook in the renewable energy sector, with steady growth in installed capacity for wind and solar energy [3][35]. - Coal production has also seen a steady increase, with a total coal output of 13.05 million tons in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 21.51% [3][32]. 5. Financial Forecast and Investment Advice - The company is expected to achieve significant net profit growth in the coming years, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 10, 9, and 8 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 [4][47]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong resource security and operational flexibility, making it a favorable investment opportunity as aluminum prices rise [4][47].