有色金属行业 点评： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 分析师：许正堃 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523120001 电话：0769-23320072 邮箱： xuzhengkun@dgzq.com.cn | 分析师：许正堃 SAC 执业证书编号： | | | --- | --- | | S0340523120001 | | | 电话：0769-23320072 邮箱： | 公 | | xuzhengkun@dgzq.com.cn | 司 | | 研 | 究 | | 主要数据 2025 | 年 9 月 1 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 9.98 | | 总市值（亿元） | 464.26 | | 总股本（亿股） | 46.52 | | 流通 A 股（亿股） | 41.30 | | ROE(TTM) | 7.52% | | 12 月最高价（元） | 10.26 | | 12 月最低价（元） | 6.08 | 买入（维持） 成本控制成效显著，产能释放值得期待 公 司 点 天山铝业（002532. ...

智通财经APP获悉，国联民生证券发布研报称，预计中国宏桥(01378)2025-2027年归母净利润分别为 227.59/261.69/289.69亿元，分别同比增长1.73%/14.98%/10.70%，EPS分别为2.40/2.76/3.05元/股，维 持"买入"评级。中长期来看，"反内卷"政策持续加码，氧化铝新增产能投产节奏或有望放缓，从而改善 产能过剩格局。公司发布正面盈利预告，2025H1预计实现归母净利润约123.59亿元，同比增长35%左 右。 电解铝权益产能增加，成长性与稀缺性兼备 截至2025年3月末，公司具备电解铝总产能645.9万吨。2025年2月，公司关联公司山东轻金回购/受让公 司股东建信金融资产持有的山东宏桥1.44%少数股东权益，并完成工商信息股东变更登记。2019年11 月，公司以云南宏泰为主体建设在云南的203万吨绿色铝产能，公司通过子公司云南宏桥(公司持股比例 95.29%)持有云南宏泰75%股权;2025年7月，云南宏桥持有云南宏泰的股权比例由75%变更为100%，公 司在云南的电解铝权益产能增加48.36万吨至193.44万吨。 国联民生证券主要观点如下： 供给约束逻辑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see significant growth in net profit from 2025 to 2027, driven by rising aluminum prices and improved sales performance in electrolytic aluminum and alumina products [1][2]. Financial Projections - Projected net profits for China Hongqiao from 2025 to 2027 are 22.759 billion, 26.169 billion, and 28.969 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 1.73%, 14.98%, and 10.70% respectively [1]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.45, 2.82, and 3.12 yuan per share for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 6.9, 6.0, and 5.4 times [1]. Profit Growth Drivers - The company's net profit for the first half of 2025 is expected to increase by approximately 35% year-on-year, reaching around 12.359 billion yuan, following a net profit of 9.155 billion yuan in 2024 [1][2]. - The increase in profit is attributed to higher sales volumes and prices of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, with the average price of electrolytic aluminum rising by 2.51% to 20,297 yuan per ton [2]. Industry Dynamics - The alumina price has significantly decreased in 2025, dropping from 5,683 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to 3,175 yuan per ton by June 23, 2025, which may stabilize profits in the alumina segment [3]. - The average profit for alumina in the first half of 2025 is projected to be 302 yuan per ton, a decrease of 430 yuan per ton year-on-year, but the declining trend in alumina prices is expected to slow down [3]. Capacity Expansion - The company is advancing its capacity replacement strategy, with the Yunnan Wenshan project having completed an initial capacity of 1.074 million tons per year and a second phase of 950,000 tons nearing completion [4]. - The Yunnan Honghe project, which began construction in August 2023, is planned to have a capacity of 1.93 million tons per year, with an initial production line expected to be completed by the end of June 2025 [4].