云铝股份（000807.SZ）2025 年半年报点评 Q2 业绩大幅增长，分红超预期 2025 年 08 月 26 日 ➢ 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年报。2025H1 实现营收 290.8 亿元，同比增加 18.0%， 归母净利 27.7 亿元，同比增加 9.9%，扣非归母净利 27.6 亿元，同比增加 15.4%。单季 度看，25Q2 营收 146.7 亿元，同比增加 10.4%，环比增加 1.8%，归母净利 17.9 亿元， 同比增长 32.3%，环比增长 84.1%，扣非归母净利 17.9 亿元，同比增长 32.0%，环比增 长 84.2%，业绩符合前期业绩预告。Q2 业绩环比大幅增长主要由于氧化铝价格走弱。 ➢ 中期分红：2025H1 拟每 10 股派发现金红利 3.2 元（含税），现金分红 11.1 亿元， 分红率 40.1%，相对 24 年提升 7.9pct。2021-2024 年公司分红率 11.8%、12.2%、 20.2%、32.2%，分红率持续提升。根据我们对公司业绩预测，若 2025 年分红率与中期 分红保持一致，公司股息率有望增至约 4.3%，分红超预期。 ➢ 氧化铝价格走弱，Q ...

电解铝下游加工及终端消费旺季前瞻 20250822 摘要 铝棒加工费持续走低，7 月华东、华南地区环比下跌超 30%，产能利用 率降至 43.75%，但 8 月订单企稳，库存去化，业者对"金九银十"预 期乐观，预计 9 月产能利用率小幅提升。 铝型材企业建成产能超 1,000 万吨，运行率约 50%。建筑型材受房地 产市场低迷影响大，占比持续下降，从 2019 年的 70%以上降至 2024 年的 45.7%，工业型材需求相对稳定。 房地产市场持续下行，1-7 月房地产开发投资同比下降 12%，新开工面 积减少 19.4%，竣工面积减少 16.5%，导致前七个月房地产用铝量同 比减少 35.3 万吨。 为应对国内市场困境，部分铝型材企业积极拓展出口，出口货款回款周 期短且利润丰厚，沿海工厂出口比重已达 50%以上，但需警惕国际贸易 摩擦及绿色铝等政策带来的挑战。 新能源用铝需求增长显著，光伏和新能源汽车领域成为重要增长点。 2025 年上半年新增光伏装机容量同比增长超 99%，1-7 月新能源汽车 产销同比增长超 38%，但铝加工企业面临光伏补贴取消、产能扩张及车 企合作门槛等挑战。 Q&A 当前铝下游加工各 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price based on projected earnings growth and market conditions [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 81.04 billion RMB for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit of 13.55 billion RMB, up 35.4% year-on-year, aligning with previous forecasts [2]. - The increase in revenue and profit is attributed to rising prices in electrolytic aluminum and alumina, alongside a robust production capacity [3]. - The company has demonstrated confidence in its future by repurchasing shares worth 2.61 billion HKD and planning to maintain a high dividend payout ratio [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, electrolytic aluminum revenue reached 51.88 billion RMB, a 5.2% increase year-on-year, with sales volume at 2.906 million tons, up 2.4%. The average selling price rose to 17,853 RMB/ton, a 2.7% increase [3]. - Alumina revenue was 20.66 billion RMB, a 27.5% increase, with sales volume at 6.368 million tons, up 15.6%. The average selling price increased by 10.3% to 3,243 RMB/ton [3]. - The aluminum processing segment generated 8.07 billion RMB in revenue, a 6.5% increase, with sales volume at 392,000 tons, up 3.5% [3]. Share Buyback and Dividends - The company spent 2.61 billion HKD on share repurchases in H1 2025 and plans to allocate no less than 3 billion HKD for buybacks, reflecting strong confidence in its growth prospects [4]. Future Outlook - The company has a well-integrated supply chain with a total electrolytic aluminum capacity of 6.459 million tons and alumina capacity of 21 million tons, ensuring strong raw material security [5]. - The decline in thermal coal prices is expected to enhance profit margins, with coal prices dropping to approximately 652 RMB/ton [5]. - The shift of electrolytic aluminum production capacity to Yunnan, supported by green energy, is anticipated to benefit long-term growth [5]. - The company is also diversifying by investing in iron ore projects in Guinea, which may provide additional returns [5]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 24.93 billion RMB, 25.89 billion RMB, and 27.24 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8, 8, and 7 [6][7].

公司电解铝产能规模优势明显，为顺应绿色趋势逐步实施"北铝南移"战略 公司2017年开始具备645.9万吨电解铝产能，此后维持这一规模，目前山东/云南产能497.1/148.8万吨， 山东滨州基地以公司为核心汇聚全球规模最大的铝产业集群，云南宏泰为砚山县云南绿色铝创新产业园 区链主企业，打造全球单体规模最大的绿铝项目，产业集群一体化优势明显。目前公司正在推动电解铝 产能从山东向云南搬迁置换，预计27年山东/云南产能将分别达到345.1/300.8万吨。公司原铝生产全部 采用电流强度为400KA以上的大型阳极预焙电解槽，并且液态铝合金为公司的主要产品，占原铝产量比 例90%左右，有利于节约铸造成本。成本方面，公司于2005年开始新建自备热电厂，目前电力自给率 50%左右;山东地区生产所需氧化铝主要是自产自用，云南地区生产所需氧化铝主要从外部采购;铝土矿 主要从投资的几内亚公司进口，同时在澳大利亚及印尼均已建立了长期稳定的供应渠道。 公司氧化铝产能富裕提供高弹性，参股几内亚"赢联盟"稳定上游铝土矿供应 智通财经APP获悉，东方财富证券发布研报称，中国宏桥(01378)一体化优势和高股息属性突出，首次覆 盖，给予"买 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 27.0-28.0 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.19%-11.16% [7] - The significant improvement in raw material costs, particularly alumina, has positively impacted the company's profitability in Q2 2025, with a projected net profit of 17.3-18.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.33%-34.71% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 77.10%-87.36% [7] - The successful commissioning of the Heqing Yixin Aluminum Phase III project is expected to enhance production capacity and sales volume [7] - The supply-demand dynamics in the aluminum market indicate a favorable long-term outlook, with limited supply growth and increasing demand from sectors like new energy vehicles [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 57,615 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.8% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 6,323 million yuan in 2025, marking a significant increase of 43.3% compared to the previous year [6] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve to 16.4% in 2025, up from 10.0% in Q1 2025 [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to be 18.5% in 2025, reflecting a recovery from the previous year's low [6]

| | √特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | 动类别 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | □其他 （请文字说明其他活动内容） | | 参与单位名称 | 现场会议：中信证券股份有限公司、云南能投资本投资有限公司、 | | | 西藏合众易晟投资管理有限责任公司等投资机构、行业分析师 4 人。 | | 时 间 | 2025 年 6 月 12 日上午 10:00-11:30 | | 地 点 | 现场会议地址：云南铝业股份有限公司一楼会议室。 | | 上市公司接待 人员姓名 | 证券事务代表：王冀奭先生 | | | 投资者提出的主要问题及公司回复情况如下： | | | 1.公司现金流、资产负债率等关键指标持续向好，会考虑提高 分红比例吗？ | | | 回复：云铝股份一直高度重视和维护投资者利益，近年来公司 | | | 年公司累计分红金额约 亿元，占 的现金分红稳步提升，2024 14.22 | | | 公司 2024 年度归属于上市公司股东净利润的比例为 32.23%。未来， | | 投资者关系活 | 公司将坚 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue growth in 2024, with a significant increase in aluminum production, but faced challenges in Q4 2024 due to a sharp decline in net profit [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 54.45 billion yuan, an increase of 27.61% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.41 billion yuan, up 11.52% [1]. - The net profit for Q4 2024 was 592 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 59.21% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 54.52% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the net profit was 974 million yuan, down 16.26% year-on-year but up 64.66% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Production and Pricing - The increase in 2024 profits was primarily driven by higher production volumes, with aluminum production rising by 22.45% year-on-year to 2.9383 million tons [2]. - The average price of alumina in 2024 was 4,100 yuan per ton, up 42% from 2023, while the average price of electrolytic aluminum was 19,922 yuan per ton, an increase of 7% [2]. - In Q1 2025, the average price of alumina fell to 3,938 yuan per ton, a decrease of 26% from the previous quarter, which is expected to positively impact profits in Q2 2025 [2]. Future Outlook - The company plans to increase electrolytic aluminum production in 2025, targeting an output of approximately 3.01 million tons [3]. - The financial condition is robust, with a significant reduction in the debt-to-asset ratio from 75.44% in 2018 to 23.97% in Q1 2025 [3]. - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio from 11.76% in 2021 to 32.23% in 2024, with total cash dividends of 1.422 billion yuan, a growth of 78.26% from 2023 [3]. Investment Rating - The company maintains a "strong buy" investment rating, with projected net profits of 6.19 billion yuan, 8.31 billion yuan, and 8.38 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 9, 6, and 6 times [4]. - The company benefits from abundant green electricity in Yunnan province, with over 80% of its production electricity sourced from clean energy [4].