Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing a complex situation with a significant drop in spot prices, a slight rebound in futures, and a rise in aluminum concept stocks, indicating a clash between short-term adjustments and long-term positive factors [9] Group 1: Market Performance - On December 30, the international aluminum market rose slightly to $2969 per ton, while domestic futures showed mixed performance, with the main 2602 contract closing at 22565 yuan per ton, up 0.13% [1] - The spot market saw a substantial decline, with prices in the Yangtze region dropping by 310 yuan per ton and in Guangdong by 320 yuan per ton, reflecting weak demand from downstream buyers [1][2] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The significant drop in the spot market is attributed to a seasonal demand slump and high aluminum prices, leading to reduced purchasing intentions among downstream enterprises [2] - Downstream leading enterprises are operating at only 60.8% capacity, indicating a decrease in demand across various sectors [2] Group 3: Macro Factors - Uncertainties in overseas policies, particularly comments from former President Trump regarding the Federal Reserve, have created market concerns, although the direct impact on aluminum prices is limited [3] - Positive domestic economic indicators, including a rise in major stock indices and expectations for increased infrastructure investment, are providing strong support for aluminum prices [4] Group 4: Inventory and Cost Analysis - Short-term inventory pressures are evident due to stable production capacity and improved shipping conditions, leading to an increase of 44,000 tons in aluminum ingot and rod inventories [5] - Long-term support for aluminum prices is expected due to relatively low inventory levels compared to last year and stable production costs, with a cost support level estimated at around 20,000 yuan per ton [5] Group 5: Company Insights - Yun Aluminum Co., as a leader in "green aluminum," benefits from lower production costs due to its reliance on hydropower, allowing it to maintain profitability even at lower aluminum prices [6] - Tianshan Aluminum's integrated business model across the aluminum supply chain enhances its risk resilience, allowing it to offset losses in one area with profits from another [6] Group 6: Market Outlook - In the short term, the aluminum market is expected to face pressure with prices likely to fluctuate between 22,000 and 23,000 yuan per ton due to weak demand and inventory accumulation [7] - The medium to long-term outlook is optimistic, with anticipated demand growth from infrastructure investments and the rapid development of the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic industries, potentially raising aluminum prices to a range of 24,000 to 26,000 yuan per ton by 2026 [8]

站在"十四五"圆满收官、"十五五"宏图待展的历史交汇点，云南铝业股份有限公司（以下简称"云铝股份"）以实干破局、以创新赋能，实现了从"跟 跑"到"并跑"再到"领跑"的跨越式蝶变，在铝工业高质量发展画卷中写下浓墨重彩的篇章。5年来，云铝股份深入贯彻中铝集团、中铝股份战略部署，锚定 高质量发展目标，推动产业结构、经营业绩、治理效能、创新能力、绿色转型全面跃升，以硬核实力扛起行业转型升级的"云铝担当"。 向上攀登 经营业绩画出"上扬曲线" 云铝股份的经营业绩曲线，是一条持续向上的漂亮弧线。该公司通过系统推进产业结构调整，精准补齐关键短板，提升上游资源保障能力，扩大中游规模 优势，推动下游产业链延伸，产业发展实现"量"的提升和"质"的飞跃。 从阳宗海畔的第一粒火种到云南省八大产业基地布局，云铝股份充分发挥链主企业优势，构建起"铝土矿—氧化铝—炭素制品—电解铝—铝合金及加工— 资源综合利用"一体化绿色产业链。"十四五"末，云铝股份形成氧化铝140万吨、电解铝308万吨、铝合金及铝加工产品161万吨、炭素制品82万吨的产能规 模，综合实力与抗风险能力显著提升。 向新突破 科技创新打造"硬核实力" 数字会说话，见证跨越式发 ...

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 深 度 有色金属 2025 年 12 月 24 日 中孚实业 (600595) ——成本改善释放业绩弹性，高分红凸显长期价值 报告原因：首次覆盖 增持（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 12 月 23 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 8.07 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 8.34/2.71 | | 市净率 | 1.9 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | - | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 32,344 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,919.98/13,368.99 | | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | | 4.16 | | 资产负债率% | | 31.03 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | | 4,008/4,008 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -200% 0% 200% 400% 12-23 01 ...

铝价这几个月像坐了火箭，伦敦交易所的报价已经摸到每吨2880美元的边儿上，就在12月16日那天，还 小涨了点。想想那些工厂老板，平时铝材就是他们的命根子，现在价格窜得这么高，谁不心疼？ 全球需求旺盛，尤其是电动车和太阳能板这些新玩意儿，用铝的地方越来越多。供应那边却卡壳了，印 尼的冶炼厂因为能源和政策问题拖后腿，冰岛一家厂子设备坏了直接停产。这些事儿一凑堆，市场就慌 了，大家抢着囤货，生怕明天更贵。 美国制造商日子不好过。试着从中国厂拿报价，电话一打就成，还跟进两次。美国本土厂呢？打几个电 话没人接，好不容易找到分销商，价格高4倍多，交期一样。这现实太扎心，工业未来被高价卡住。客 户一半不在乎来源，因为本土买不起。想支持本土制造，得先建强供应链，不然工厂全跑国外去。 关税这把双刃剑，砍得美国自己也疼。原本想护着本土产业，结果进口量从年初到七月降了6%，单月 最低只剩30万吨。加拿大铝本来免税，可产能有限，巴西和澳洲的货运费又高。企业库存警报拉响，大 家开始期货对冲避险。可长远看，这不是个事儿。铝短缺直接卡住脖子，高科技发展慢下来。想想那些 工程师，设计图纸画得再好，材料跟不上，一切白搭。 电力问题更是雪上加霜 ...

Core Viewpoint - The leading domestic "green aluminum" company, Yun Aluminum Co., Ltd., is accelerating its acquisition of existing production capacity through equity integration in the context of strict control over total electrolytic aluminum capacity in China [1][8]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Yun Aluminum announced plans to invest 2.267 billion yuan to acquire minority stakes in three subsidiaries held by Yunnan Metallurgical Group [1][2]. - The acquisition will result in 100% control of Yun Aluminum Hongxin and increase ownership in Yun Aluminum Runxin and Yun Aluminum Yongxin to over 96% [1][8]. - The transaction is expected to add over 150,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum equity capacity, reinforcing the company's leading position in the green low-carbon aluminum sector [1][8]. Group 2: Financial Aspects - The total cash payment for the acquisition, after deducting related dividends, amounts to 2.267 billion yuan, with specific prices of 1.451 billion yuan for Yun Aluminum Yongxin, 788 million yuan for Yun Aluminum Runxin, and 28 million yuan for Yun Aluminum Hongxin [6]. - The valuation of the core assets shows a significant premium, with Yun Aluminum Yongxin's assessed value at 5.308 billion yuan, reflecting a 97.60% increase from its book value [6]. - Yun Aluminum's cash reserves were approximately 10.675 billion yuan as of September 30, 2025, indicating sufficient liquidity to support the acquisition [6][7]. Group 3: Strategic Intent - The acquisition is a strategic move to enhance core capacity without increasing physical production, thereby expanding business scale and consolidating market position [8]. - The targeted companies, Yun Aluminum Yongxin and Yun Aluminum Runxin, are profitable entities, contributing significantly to cash flow, which will enhance Yun Aluminum's net profit and earnings per share post-acquisition [9]. - The acquisition of Yun Aluminum Hongxin is part of a broader strategy to extend into upstream resource development, particularly in bauxite mining, ensuring resource security for the company [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company reported stable overall performance with orderly resource expansion, achieving a revenue of 44.07 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.40 billion yuan, up 15.1% year-on-year [6] - The increase in performance is attributed to rising aluminum prices and decreasing costs, with the average market price of electrolytic aluminum in Q3 2025 being 20,711 yuan per ton, a 2.5% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 5.9% increase year-on-year [6] - The company plans to implement a mid-term dividend of 3.20 yuan per 10 shares, amounting to approximately 1.11 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 40.10%, an increase of 7.87 percentage points compared to 2024 [6] Business Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 59.33 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.0% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 6.34 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 43.7% [5] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 16.8% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 18.6% [5] Financial Summary - As of September 30, 2025, the company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 6.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.2% [6] - The company has a strong cash reserve with 10.68 billion yuan in cash and cash equivalents [6] - The company’s total assets and liabilities ratio stands at 23.21%, indicating a solid financial position [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain profitability due to high aluminum prices, and the continuous increase in dividends highlights its value [1][4] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 44.072 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.47%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.398 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.14% [4][6] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 has been adjusted to 6.068 billion, 7.538 billion, and 8.592 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 37.5%, 24.2%, and 14.0% respectively [4][6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 14.993 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.13%, and a net profit of 1.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.31% [4][5] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum increased by 515.7 yuan/ton in Q3 2025, while the average price of alumina rose by 107.5 yuan/ton [5] - The company’s gross profit margin slightly decreased due to rising alumina prices, but the outlook for Q4 2025 is positive with expected profit growth driven by high aluminum prices and declining alumina costs [5] Dividend Policy - The company announced a cash dividend distribution of 1.11 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing approximately 40.10% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, an increase from 32.23% in 2024 [6] Financial Metrics and Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.75, 2.17, and 2.48 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13.9, 11.2, and 9.8 [4][7] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 42.669 billion yuan in 2023 to 59.157 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3.1% [7][10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Increase" rating for the company, indicating a potential price increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [23]. Core Views - The company has shown significant profit growth due to a decrease in raw material prices and an increase in aluminum prices, with a net profit of 707 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 59.55% [6][9]. - The improvement in performance is attributed to enhanced profitability in aluminum deep processing and increased electrolytic aluminum capacity, alongside reduced costs from alumina and electricity [9]. - The company completed a 24% equity acquisition in Zhongfu Aluminum, raising its electrolytic aluminum capacity to 750,000 tons per year, and is advancing its green aluminum development strategy [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 10.574 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.82%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 59.55% [6]. - The gross profit margin improved to 11.66%, up 1.40 percentage points from the previous year, and the net profit margin rose to 5.93%, an increase of 1.59 percentage points [9]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The average alumina price in the first half of 2025 was 3,450.64 yuan per ton, down 1.17% year-on-year, while the electrolytic aluminum price was 20,315.42 yuan per ton, up 2.66% [9]. - The price of thermal coal decreased by 26.81% year-on-year, contributing to cost improvements [9]. Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on green low-carbon transformation, with a new distributed photovoltaic capacity of approximately 21.5 MW added in the first half of 2025, bringing the total to about 77.55 MW [9]. - The proportion of recycled aluminum in deep processing products reached 61%, further reducing the carbon footprint [9]. Shareholder Returns - The company initiated an employee stock ownership plan, with employees purchasing approximately 330 million shares, representing 8.21% of total shares, at an average price of 3.21 yuan per share [9]. - A cash dividend plan was established, aiming to distribute at least 60% of the distributable profits in cash annually from 2025 to 2027, reflecting confidence in future profitability [9]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 24.108 billion yuan, 24.469 billion yuan, and 24.861 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 2.126 billion yuan, 2.232 billion yuan, and 2.390 billion yuan [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for H1 2025 reached 29.078 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.98%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.768 billion yuan, up 9.88% year-on-year. The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 14.667 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.36% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.78%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.793 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.33% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 84.05% [4][5] - The company expects to maintain high aluminum profit margins due to the anticipated rise in aluminum prices and low prices for alumina in H2 2025 [5] - The company plans to implement a mid-term dividend of approximately 1.109 billion yuan, representing about 40.10% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025, an increase from 32.23% in 2024 [6] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 6.800 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 54.1%. The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.96 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.5 times based on the closing price on August 28, 2025 [4][7] - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 54.450 billion yuan in 2024 to 56.979 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.6% [7][9] - The gross profit margin is projected to improve from 13.2% in 2024 to 19.1% in 2025, while the net profit margin is expected to rise from 8.1% in 2024 to 11.9% in 2025 [7][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a target price of 6.3 CNY based on a current price of 5.50 CNY [2][7]. Core Views - The company's performance continues to recover, with a significant increase in net profit driven by rising aluminum prices and cost optimization. The company achieved a net profit of 707 million CNY in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 59.55% [2][6]. - The company is expected to resume cash dividends, with a plan to distribute no less than 60% of the distributable profits from 2025 to 2027, reflecting its strong dividend attributes [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 10.574 billion CNY, a decrease of 3.82% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 707 million CNY, up 59.55% year-on-year [2][6]. - The second quarter saw total revenue of 5.552 billion CNY, down 4.47% year-on-year but up 10.57% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 477 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.37% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 107.16% [2][6]. - The company’s total assets are valued at 24.116 billion CNY, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 31.62% [3][7]. Market and Industry Insights - The average price of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased by 2.7% year-on-year, while the average price of alumina decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, indicating a favorable pricing environment for the company [6]. - The company has enhanced its electrolytic aluminum production capacity to 750,000 tons per year and is focusing on green power development, which is expected to strengthen its competitive advantage in the market [6][7]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.939 billion CNY, 2.388 billion CNY, and 2.688 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 175.5%, 23.2%, and 12.5% [7][8]. - The estimated revenue for 2025 is 24.118 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 6.0% compared to the previous year [7][8].