大周五，咱们「国产 GPU 第一股」摩尔线程，整了个让资本市场直呼「看不懂」的骚操作。 公告字数不多，核心就一句：准备拿不超过 75 亿元的闲置资金，去买理财产品 。 这事儿有多魔幻？ 稍微翻翻账本你就知道，摩尔线程这次 IPO，扣除发行费后真正落袋的净额，一共才75.76 亿元。 换句话说，上市敲钟融来的钱，还没在账上捂热乎，99% 的资金就被原封不动地转手存进了「余额 宝」 。 是不是很有趣？网上瞬间炸了锅，段子手们调侃说：这操作，大洋彼岸的黄仁勋看了都得笑出声，说实 话，我也跟着笑了一会儿。 不过，笑完后，我认认真真又花几个小时看了下他们家的财报、行业数据，发现看似荒诞的「99% 闲 置率」背后，藏着一个中国硬科技行业最尴尬、也最残酷的真相。 01 什么真相呢？我们先说下这 75 亿，到底是个什么概念？ 根据摩尔线程 12 月 12 日晚上的公告，这 75 亿是买协定存款、通知存款、结构性存款这些「安全性 高、流动性好的保本型产品」 。 说白了，把钱放在银行的保险柜里，顺便吃点比活期高一丢丢的利息，而且期限不超过 12 个月 。 看到这儿，很多股民的第一反应还是想骂：我给你这么多钱，让你去造核弹，你却给 ...

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical risk premium in the oil market is rapidly declining as expectations for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine rise, with Brent crude oil prices falling to around $63 per barrel. Barclays maintains its forecast for the average Brent crude price at $66 per barrel for 2026, emphasizing that structural factors like capacity constraints will be more significant than geopolitical events in the coming years [1][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical and Market Dynamics - Despite the emergence of ceasefire negotiations, Barclays believes such events will not significantly alter the fundamental landscape of the oil market by 2026 [1]. - The report highlights that concerns over oversupply in the market are overstated, while structural positive factors are underestimated [1][7]. - The actual production of OPEC+ countries, including Russia, continues to lag behind targets, indicating persistent capacity constraints [7][10]. Group 2: Russian Oil Production Constraints - Barclays questions the market consensus that a ceasefire would lead to a surge in Russian oil supply, asserting that significant growth in Russian production is unlikely before 2026 [4]. - Despite an increase in OPEC+ production quotas, Russia's actual output has declined by 100,000 barrels per day year-on-year, reflecting a disconnect between capacity and policy goals [4]. - The ongoing sanctions have stabilized, yet production has not increased, indicating that capacity constraints have become the primary bottleneck for supply [4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Balance - The market's fears of oversupply in the coming year may be overestimated, as investors are underappreciating the structural constraints on supply from OPEC+ and the shrinking global excess capacity [7][10]. - Since March, OPEC+ has raised production targets by 2.6 million barrels per day, but actual output has only increased by 1.2 million barrels per day, with an execution rate of less than 50% [7]. - The effective idle capacity is increasingly concentrated among a few core OPEC producers, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, enhancing their pricing power in the global market [7][10].

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia's Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser indicated that the current economy faces significant capacity constraints, limiting further interest rate cuts [1] Economic Conditions - Economic capacity utilization is at its highest level in the past 40 years during the recovery period [1] - Inflation pressures remain persistently above the central bank's target range, increasing the risk of continuing loose monetary policy [1] Monetary Policy - Hauser emphasized that if demand growth exceeds existing capacity limits, it will exacerbate inflationary risks [1] - Despite the RBA having implemented three interest rate cuts totaling 75 basis points, the latest data shows a rebound in inflation in the third quarter, forcing the central bank to pause further easing measures [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi is facing significant production capacity challenges as it launches its new electric vehicle, the YU7, which has generated high demand but long delivery times, potentially impacting its market position and sales targets [3][14][27]. Production Capacity Challenges - The delivery time for the YU7 has extended to over 9 months, with the standard version taking 58-61 weeks and the Pro version 51-54 weeks [4][5]. - Xiaomi's first factory in Beijing was designed for an annual capacity of 150,000 vehicles but has been pushed to produce approximately 365,000 vehicles annually, reflecting a 140% increase [6][16][42]. - The second factory, expected to be operational by July-August, will also have a capacity of 150,000 vehicles per year, which is crucial for meeting demand [6][23]. Competitive Landscape - Competitors are actively trying to attract Xiaomi's potential customers by offering incentives, such as cash bonuses for switching orders [10][29]. - The electric SUV market is highly competitive, with established players like Tesla and emerging brands like NIO and Li Auto vying for market share [11][37]. - Xiaomi's delivery delays provide an opportunity for competitors to capitalize on the situation, potentially leading to order losses for Xiaomi [28][48]. Market Dynamics and Policy Implications - The upcoming reduction in tax incentives for electric vehicles in 2024 could further complicate Xiaomi's sales strategy, as customers may face higher costs [13][48]. - Xiaomi's ambitious target of delivering 350,000 vehicles this year hinges on overcoming production bottlenecks and maintaining customer loyalty amid fierce competition [14][27]. Brand Loyalty and Consumer Behavior - Despite long wait times, Xiaomi's loyal customer base shows a willingness to wait, which may help mitigate immediate sales impacts [5][45]. - The brand's strong marketing and founder Lei Jun's personal influence are seen as key factors in retaining customers during this challenging period [48].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue growth in 2024, with a significant increase in aluminum production, but faced challenges in Q4 2024 due to a sharp decline in net profit [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 54.45 billion yuan, an increase of 27.61% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.41 billion yuan, up 11.52% [1]. - The net profit for Q4 2024 was 592 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 59.21% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 54.52% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the net profit was 974 million yuan, down 16.26% year-on-year but up 64.66% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Production and Pricing - The increase in 2024 profits was primarily driven by higher production volumes, with aluminum production rising by 22.45% year-on-year to 2.9383 million tons [2]. - The average price of alumina in 2024 was 4,100 yuan per ton, up 42% from 2023, while the average price of electrolytic aluminum was 19,922 yuan per ton, an increase of 7% [2]. - In Q1 2025, the average price of alumina fell to 3,938 yuan per ton, a decrease of 26% from the previous quarter, which is expected to positively impact profits in Q2 2025 [2]. Future Outlook - The company plans to increase electrolytic aluminum production in 2025, targeting an output of approximately 3.01 million tons [3]. - The financial condition is robust, with a significant reduction in the debt-to-asset ratio from 75.44% in 2018 to 23.97% in Q1 2025 [3]. - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio from 11.76% in 2021 to 32.23% in 2024, with total cash dividends of 1.422 billion yuan, a growth of 78.26% from 2023 [3]. Investment Rating - The company maintains a "strong buy" investment rating, with projected net profits of 6.19 billion yuan, 8.31 billion yuan, and 8.38 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 9, 6, and 6 times [4]. - The company benefits from abundant green electricity in Yunnan province, with over 80% of its production electricity sourced from clean energy [4].

以下文章来源于新经济IPO ，作者海川 导 语 ：最大出资人纪仲林退出股东时机的敏感性及其关联人继续控制公司的行为，可能被视 为规避法律责任的潜在风险。 同宇新材料（广东）股份有限公司创业板IPO于2025年4月14日正式提交注册，标志着公司冲击上市 进入最后阶段。然而，在这一关键节点，公司不仅面临业绩持续下滑的压力，还因第三大股东纪仲 林在公司的实际角色、负面信息等引发市场对"口碑声誉"风险的广泛关注。 在证监会2024年强化关键少数"声誉监管"的大背景下，纪仲林关联企业的失信记录、司法诉讼及退 出津东车队的敏感时机，可能成为IPO审核的重点关注点。 同宇新材需进一步澄清纪仲林的角色及声誉问题，以确保IPO进程顺利推进。资本市场以法治化为 基石，严防声誉风险不仅是监管要求，更是维护投资者信心和市场健康发展的必然选择。 新经济IPO . 新经济、新技术、新金融动向、趋势、IPO观察 作 者 | 海川 来源 | 新经济IPO 下滑下的上市冲刺 2025年4月14日，深交所官网显示，同宇新材创业板IPO审核状态变更为"提交注册"，标志着公司在 历经近三年排队后，终于进入IPO的最后关卡。 2025年一季度，公司营 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A" rating for the company Longtu Guozhao (688721.SH) [1][9] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 247 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.92%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 91.83 million yuan, a growth of 9.84% [2][4] - The growth rate of revenue and net profit for 2024 is significantly slower compared to 2023, primarily due to the saturation of production capacity at the Shenzhen factory. The new factory in Zhuhai is anticipated to release capacity and drive rapid growth in performance [4][5] - The company is focusing on the construction of a "high-end semiconductor chip mask manufacturing base" project, with major production equipment for the Zhuhai factory arriving and being installed since the end of Q1 2024 [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 218 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.13%, and a net profit of 83.61 million yuan, up 29.66% [4][11] - For 2024, the gross margin is expected to be 57.01%, slightly down by 1.86 percentage points from the previous year, while the net margin is projected at 37.25%, down by 1.05 percentage points [5][11] - The revenue contribution from quartz masks increased from 78.79% in 2023 to 81.31% in 2024, indicating a stable demand for this product line [5][11] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 348 million yuan, 509 million yuan, and 788 million yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 41.0%, 46.6%, and 54.6% [7][11] - Net profits are projected to be 103 million yuan, 162 million yuan, and 263 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 12.3%, 57.0%, and 62.7% respectively [7][11]