智通财经7月3日电，强劲的6月份就业数据公布后，美国国债下跌。 ...

订阅美联储动态 +订阅 跟踪全球贸易动向 +订阅 美国财长警告 关税可能会回升至4月2日水平 金十数据7月3日讯，美国财长贝森特警告美国的贸易伙伴不要延长贸易谈判，称如果没有取得进展，关 税可能会回升到4月2日的水平。贝森特透露，他今天将与欧盟谈判代表会面。当被问及讨论的结果时， 他只是说，"我们将看看与欧盟会发生什么。"在美国债务问题上，贝森特表达了对市场需求的信心。他 称"对美国国债的需求很大，"国内外对美国国债的需求依然强劲。他将债务管理过程描述为"有条不 紊"。贝森特还对利率发表了评论，暗示"两年期国债告诉你隔夜利率过高"，且"通胀预期应该会回 落"。他批评了美联储，称该委员会的判断"似乎有点偏差"。关于美联储的运作，贝森特表示，"对美联 储来说，控制开支是有益的"，他希望"看到美联储合理调整预算规模"。当被问及他是否希望美联储主 席鲍威尔辞职时，贝森特拒绝给出具体回应。他指出，有"很多强有力的美联储主席候选人"，并提到 了"明年填补两个美联储董事会职位"的可能性。 ...

Group 1: US Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley indicates that the upcoming non-farm payroll report may reignite concerns about US economic growth, with expectations of a 110,000 increase in employment for June, down from 139,000 in May, and an anticipated rise in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3% [1] - UBS notes that the 20% tariffs imposed by the US on Vietnamese goods are at the lower end of expectations, and the details of the trade agreement will be crucial for assessing its economic impact on Vietnam [2] - DBS Bank suggests that while the US-Vietnam trade agreement reduces risks for Vietnam's economic growth, it may not prevent a slowdown in the coming quarters due to a lack of details in the agreement [2] Group 2: Currency and Inflation - ING predicts that the dollar may experience a temporary rebound as tariffs drive inflation, potentially delaying interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - The report anticipates that the euro to dollar exchange rate may briefly fall to the 1.13-1.15 range, and the yen to dollar rate may drop to 145-150, indicating a decline of about 4% for both currencies [3] Group 3: US Debt and Interest Rates - Capital Economics forecasts challenges for US Treasury bonds for the remainder of the year, despite recent strong performance, as the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts may hinder further gains [4] - The report highlights that Fed Chair Powell's comments suggest a reluctance to cut rates until there is clear evidence of economic stability [4] Group 4: European Economic Policy - ANZ Bank expects the European Central Bank to be close to the bottom of its interest rate cycle, predicting a 25 basis point cut in September [5] - The ECB has reduced rates by 200 basis points over the past year, and the current neutral policy rate range is estimated to be between 1.50% and 2.50% [5] Group 5: Chinese Market Insights - Guotai Junan Securities believes that the Chinese stock market has upward potential due to domestic innovation and a decrease in risk-free rates, with a shift in the RMB's depreciation expectations to stability or slight appreciation [6] - CITIC Securities reports a significant divergence in the monetary policy stance among the 12 voting members of the Federal Reserve, which may influence future policy decisions [7] Group 6: Nuclear Power and Technology - CITIC Securities anticipates a new wave of nuclear power construction globally, driven by the need for stable clean energy and the recovery of the nuclear industry [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of nuclear power in energy transition and carbon neutrality efforts, with China leading in newly approved nuclear units [8] Group 7: Investment Opportunities in Technology - CITIC Securities recommends focusing on AI-related investment opportunities, particularly in AI agents and computing power sectors, as the computer industry is expected to see steady growth [9] - The report highlights the potential for structural opportunities in various technology sectors, including cross-border payments and industrial software [9]

Group 1 - The core argument of the report is that tariffs are not a zero-sum game and have significant implications for U.S. Treasury securities and the U.S. dollar, with a focus on the broader economic impact rather than just the immediate costs to producers and consumers [1][2] - Tariffs paid by U.S. importers are projected to amount to $327 billion annually, which represents 1% of the nominal GDP for 2025 [2][6] - If companies fully absorb the tariff costs, profit margins could drop from 13.8% to 11.7% in Q1 2025, significantly below the 15-year moving average of 12.2% [2][12] Group 2 - The report highlights that if 75% of the tariffs are passed on to consumers, profit margins could exceed the 15-year moving average by 1.1 percentage points [12][13] - The analysis indicates that the current economic environment is leaning towards downside risks, with a noted decline in air passenger traffic compared to previous years [17] - The report suggests that despite some foreign investors increasing their holdings in U.S. stocks, there is a notable trend of U.S. domestic investors reducing their exposure, indicating a potential reallocation of assets [34][36]

贝莱德在第三季度固定收益展望报告中表示，“我们已经关注美国政府债务问题的危险处境有一段时间了。如果这种情况继续得不到控制，我们认为债务将成为美国在金融市场中所享有的‘特殊地位’面临的最大风险。”公共债务增加可能会降低美国长期国债收益率走势与美国货币政策之间的关联性，尽管美联储降息，收益率仍将上升。美国国债供应增加，可能会面临美联储以及外国央行需求下降的局面。这表明应当将投资多元化，减少对美国公债市场的依赖，同时增加对短期美债的配置，因为短期美债在降息时可能会受益。“尽管政府提议削减开支，但赤字仍在攀升，而且现在更多的支出都用于支付利息。”“随着外国投资者退出，政府每周发行超过5000亿美元的债务，民间市场无法吸收这些债务，从而推高政府借贷成本的风险是切实存在的。” ...

周一，美国财长贝森特表示，他预计将在美国设定的7月9日截止日期前，签署一系列新贸易协议；考虑 到当前的收益率水平，美国政府扩大长期国债发行规模并不合理。对于鲍威尔的继任者，贝森特提到了 两种可能：任命一位新成员，或从现有的美联储理事中挑选。他还表示，稳定币立法可能在7月中旬前 出台。 扩大长期国债发行规模不合理 美国财长贝森特表示，考虑到当前的收益率水平，美国政府扩大长期国债发行规模并不合理，尽管他仍 希望随着通胀放缓，各期限的利率将会下降。他周一接受媒体采访时，被问及是否应增加长期美债在美 国财政部债务发行中的占比时表示： 我们为什么要这么做？真正该这么做的时间是在2021年、2022年。 在当前利率水平下我们为什么要这么做？我们的利率已经高于长期水平超过一个标准差。 贝森特去年曾多次批评前美国财政部长耶伦在债务发行中过于依赖短期国债，称其目的是为了在大选前 维持较低的长期借贷成本、刺激经济。但自他上任以来，仍延续了耶伦的债务发行策略。 新贸易协议将至 贝森特周一表示，他预计将在美国设定的7月9日截止日期前，签署一系列新贸易协议。"进入最后一 周，随着压力增加，将会有一波公告。财政部、贸易代表办公室、商务部 ...

《GENIUS法案》以及美元稳定币的名正言顺并不仅仅代表美国政府对本土金融创新的促进，背后还寄 托着其更深远的金融战略布局。 美国参议院日前以多数票优势通过了《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》（《GENIUS法案》）， 接下来还要通过众议院票决，估计8月之前获得总统签署放行已没多大悬念，这意味着稳定币在纳入严 格合规监管后走上正轨。 《GENIUS法案》以及美元稳定币的名正言顺并不仅仅代表美国政府对本土金融创新的促进，背后还寄 托着其更深远的金融战略布局。 市场化数字法币 稳定币是一种与特定资产（如法定货币、贵金属或加密货币等)挂钩的数字货币，其中最主要与法币如 美元、欧元挂钩，也就是说，稳定币价值锚定的最主要对象是国家法定货币，故才有稳定的特质，从这 个意义上讲，稳定币也可视作为法币的衍生货币，但由于稳定币不是中央银行创造，而是由私人发行机 构提供，故稳定币又可看作是私人数字代币或市场化数字法币。 与传统法币相比，由于具有去中心化的技术优势，稳定币的交易成本更低、交易速度更快以及交易效率 更高。根据世界银行的数据，现有的银行跨境汇款通常需要5个工作日，即便是基于跨境银行间通信系 统的数字支付，约30%的汇 ...

Group 1 - The core argument reveals that the perception of high consumption levels in the U.S. is inflated due to various factors, including high legal and health insurance costs that are included in consumption statistics but are largely domestic transactions [1][3] - Historical context shows that the U.S. rapidly accumulated wealth through the Industrial Revolution and two World Wars, allowing even average workers to access modern amenities like private cars [1] - The U.S. debt per capita stands at approximately $105,000, indicating that each American has effectively pre-consumed a significant amount of money [3] Group 2 - The unique consumption culture in the U.S. is influenced by its financial system and global standing, which together foster a high-consumption lifestyle [5] - American consumer habits, such as the tendency to replace bedding rather than wash it, reflect a different approach to quality and longevity compared to other cultures [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that Trump's spending plan cannot prevent the U.S. national debt from rising to "unsustainable" levels, with current debt levels only second to those during World War II [1][2]. Group 1: Debt and Interest Payments - The U.S. will need to pay $1 trillion in interest on $36 trillion of national debt next year, which exceeds the total spending on Medicare and defense combined [1]. - The current path of debt accumulation is unsustainable, with primary deficits far exceeding normal levels, and the debt-to-GDP ratio approaching post-World War II peaks [1][2]. - Interest payments on the national debt are projected to become the second-largest government expenditure after Social Security next year [1]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Political Challenges - Goldman Sachs warns that if debt continues to grow, the government will need to maintain historically rare and politically challenging fiscal surpluses to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio [2]. - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the Republican spending bill will increase the deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next decade [2]. - The complexity of increasing taxes or cutting spending poses significant political challenges, making it difficult to address the debt issue effectively [2]. Group 3: Potential Consequences of Inaction - Delaying action on the debt issue may force Congress to make more difficult decisions in the future, potentially leading to extreme austerity measures that could negatively impact GDP [2]. - There is a risk that politicians may resort to excessive money printing to pay off debts, which could lead to hyperinflation and social unrest, as evidenced by historical precedents [2].

智通财经6月16日电，美国国债延续跌势，10年期收益率上涨6个基点至4.46%。 ...